OECD Economic Growth: Updated Dec. 14, 2025

OECD maintains global economic outlook for 2026 as uncertainties weigh

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251203/p2g/00m/0bu/013000c

Ideas

There are so many uncertainties related to OECD economic growth that is seems almost impossible to hit the right percent as situations over time can change so quickly.

Even different between 2.9 or 3.2 is a major change and again, who knows exactly what is going to happen in the future, as each separate economy in the OECD has its own unique challenges which might very different for each.

Unfortunately, political uncertainty is always there and has to be considered for the economic growth related to each country. Its always be there and again, there is no perfect world of no political risk as each country has it own ideas and own priorities which seems to always conflict with other countries.

Both China and the US seem to be at the epicenter of political risk as both seem to have competing priorities in the global economy these days.

Global supply chains have become significantly integrated that whatever happens in one country is immediately felt in another country.

For example, if China feels its slighted by the US they might decide to reduce shipments to the US which will immediately be felt in LA or Long Beach at the main west coast shipping entry points and will eventually be felt globally too, as global chains are just to integrated to not feel the impact.

The world economy might grow 3.1 percent in 2027 but that is a long way off and can change quickly over the course of the next year or two.

The Japanese economy growing at 0.9 percent in 2026 might be about right as the Japanese economy doesn't seem to grow that much more each year if even that.

But again, its just an estimate that easily could be very different to what really happens in 2026, as even with expansionary fiscal policy, which has been tried many times before, it might not have that much affect on the Japanese economy.

And yes, disposable income is the key for improved consumer spending in Japan but the challenge is always inflation and if wage increases can actually improve the lives of Japanese households as yet to be seen.

Japan might be the fourth-largest economy but for a very long time, some or many Japanese consumers don't feel like its that good of an economy, some have suggested the Japanese economy has actually back-tracked.

The US economy is mixed bag as yes, monetary easing might help with the inflation situation some but at the same time it might not.

And then there is the AI situation. If you look at the stock market, while its supposedly doing very good, only about 7 stocks, which are AI related, are driving the entire US economy but jobs are slowing, companies are not hiring so even growth to 1.7 or 1.9 might not really reflect what is happening in the US economy.

And then there is the immigration situation and foreign tourism situation which eventually could begin to have an affect on the US economy. And I will leave at that for others to figure out.

The Chinese economy has been in a downward spiral for many years, but part of that is related to economic growth and the size of the economy. For example all growing or emerging economies don't continue to grow at the fast rate that they started out in, as it takes more and more resources to grow and economy, and what factors helped an economy grow quickly before might actually be a hindrance to economic growth in future as maybe that is what is happening in China now as they need to change from what helped them in the past to other resources to help them grow in the future.

The EU might be considered an mature economy even though it has 27 separate economies but most of the 27 separate economies in the EU might be considered in the emerging or close to being in the mature stage of economic growth.

An increase of 1.2 percent for the EU in 2026 would be good as again, there are just too many factors, for example factors that might be affecting the southern countries but not the northern European countries and some factors might affecting the eastern EU countries more but not the western EU countries.

Have a nice day!

OECD Economic Growth: Updated Sept. 29, 2025

OECD lifts 2025 growth outlook on front-loaded output before tariffs

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250924/p2g/00m/0bu/003000c

Ideas

Yes many countries are going to increase production and or trade before US tariffs come into full effect as way to beat the tariff situation the best they can.

Maybe, as its known now, international trade is not going to be the same, at least for the time being, and or a more liberal leaning president in the US, who understands international trade a little better comes into power.

It sounds good but an estimate of 1.1 percent in 2025, might be a little too optimistic as the Japanese economy usually doesn't even grow that much, but it might happen if the data is correct.

Firm investment is actually part of Japan's GDP so it might be possible that companies have decided to invest as they might feel the Japanese economy is going to grow in the future, despite the tariff situation.

Japan, like most advanced economies now, place a lot of emphasis on corporate earnings as Japan has become more of a western style market economy with stockholder value at the core of many large name-brand companies these days.

The growth of China has been a little less than usual as 4.9 percent is not where it usually is but that's normal for a growing economy as the more it grows, overtime, it begins to grow less and less, and a country needs more resources to continue to grow.

And as usual, like many countries or economies, fiscal spending is used to help the economy grow at times.

Yes, front-loading will not last that long and when the tariff situation actually goes into effect many countries might begin to see investments and trade begin to decrease.

Of course not all trade and investments will disappear but over time there could be a substantial decrease from quarter to quarter or even year to year, which potentially could see many counties' GDP's decrease.

Recently it seemed in the US big tech was spurring the US economy but due to the tariff situation that might change as even big tech in the US is going to be effected by the tariffs.

And US immigration is going to be effected with unfortunately high-skilled labor needed by high tech companies are going to see a significant decrease in workers form countries such as India and China. where many of the high tech workers come from.

The US, overall, just doesn't produce enough high tech workers to meet the needs of US high tech companies, and has been noted, innovation, potentially, is going to suffer in the US.

Yes, despite all of its challenges, the US economy is still the envy of the world. Yes, China is big and somewhat growing but it still can't match the US economy.

Even at 1.5 percent growth for a so-called mature economy its still a growing economy as it hasn't settled into a real mature economy yet for example Japan has or many European countries have, with little or no growth.

Have a nice day!

Japan/US Trade Deal: Updated Sept. 25, 2025.

Japan, US reach deal on reduced 15% auto, 'reciprocal' tariffs

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250723/p2g/00m/0in/005000c

Ideas

The Japanese trade delegation have to be congratulated for their effort to reduce the tariff to 15 percent after all of the Trump rhetoric about higher tariffs.

The 15 percent tariff is much better than the 25 percent tariff that was the intention of the US admin. But the problem Japan had to maybe offer 500 billion in investments in the US to get the tariff rate from 25 to 15 percent.

Yes, it was very good that Japan a major importer of Japanese goods to the US was able to achieve it did and actually might have had to best outcome of all countries in the tariff negotiations.

The rice situation might not be considered a negative for Japan is Japan has an-ongoing rice shortage situation so the idea of importing foreign rice might have always been in the works.

The challenge is of course getting Japanese consumers to like foreign rice when many Japanese prefer Japanese rice only. But if Japanese companies use the foreign rice to make other rice products then most likely it won't be a major problem.

The Japanese agriculture sector is one of the most protected sectors in the world and there was probably no way there was going to be any change in that sector in the tariff negotiations.

You have to take it with a grain of salt that the US will receive 90 percent of the 550 billion in investments by Japan into the US in the future.

And we need to take it with a grain of salt the hundreds of thousands of jobs will be created in the US due to investments by Japan into the US.

What Trump doesn't understand or doesn't want to know is trade is not a competition between countries but more of a cooperation among countries to import and export products for the good of both countries and both countries are better off with trade.

There is a very simple reason why Japan doesn't import US cars into Japan in that US cars just don't sell in Japan. For the most part, first Japan has eight car companies to choose from and the second part is most US cars are just too big for Japanese roads and streets as many Japanese cars are much smaller that US made cars.

European cars are much better for the Japanese streets and roads and there is a significant number of them in Japan but again they are still a small percentage compared to the number of Japanese cars in Japan.

Citing national security concerns might just be a reason to increase tariffs as they might be trying to protect US jobs.

But the problem is US consumers have a lot of choices now than just the 3 US car manufactures and US consumers are not going back as now they want and always want more choices than just US cars.

The problem with importing Japanese cars made in the US is cars made in the US are for the US market and engineered to US road and safety specification which might fit Japanese market and government specifications.

So that means Japanese car makers in the US would have to re-fit their assembly lines which could be very expensive for them.

And then there is the idea, which is not mentioned here that much is Japanese consumers just don't want US cars as for the most part, they are too big for Japanese style roads and the quality is perceive to be less than Japanese cars.

Japanese negotiators seemed mostly concerned with the Japanese car industry which is a major economic driver of the Japanese economy and and loss of sales and revenue would significantly affect the Japanese economy.

All other areas while important probably took a back seat to the real negotiations related to the car industry.

Again, not to say the other sectors or exports to the US are not important but Japan had to prioritize what was/is the most important sectors for the good of the Japanese economy.

Most likely, the tariff negotiations were just a starting point for other trade negotiations which was/is the real intention and not the tariffs.

For example if the US hadn't come up with tariff rate in the first place Japan and other countries for example might not thought of other strategies or angles to help them such a as the liquefied natural gas deal.

Again the tariff situation all along might not have been the real intention as they US wanted foreign investments such as the  550 billion investments related from Japanese companies.

The US probably knows it is now going to get all of the US manufacturing companies to come back to the US as the expenses might just be too much. So the other option was/is to get foreign companies to invest in the US and of course provide more jobs in the US economy.

Yes, it was/is a very good strategy by Japan to focus on investments as Japan might have known tariffs were not the real reason for countries exporting to the US but the intention all along was/is foreign investments in the US.

The signing of the agreement on investments might take some time to finalize as most likely both sides might want or want to change some parts of the agreement.

All countries today are interconnected and what happens in one country can have an affect on another country as supply lines are just too blurred these days.

Back in the day, it seemed countries were aware that what happen in one country can affect other countries as there was always a sense of fair play and trade was not a zero sum game but beneficial to and for everyone. 

But it seems, at least for the current US admin, they only think what's good for them and not what's good for everyone in the long run.

The agriculture sector has been and most likely will always be protected in Japan as agriculture is the heart of most economies around the world.

And yes, the auto sector is the backbone of the Japanese economy and will always take priority in any negotiations with foreign countries. 

The problem with Japan is that it really doesn't have any other sectors that can improve economic growth like the auto sector can.

Its a whole new world out there and international trade is never going to be the same after everything is done and finished if ever will be.

But then again, things could drastically change in four years as maybe an new US administration might come in and change everything again.

The US has always had a trade imbalance due to the nature of the US economy as a major consumer driven economy which means all countries want to sell their products in the US.

The US economy always has a trade deficit and always will as imports are more important than exports in the US.

Its a very common fact that US cars just don't sell in Japan and will never sell in Japan due to Japanese consume preference.US cars, for the most part, are not made for the Japanese roads and streets which are just too narrow and would not fit in Japanese roads.

And related to US agricultural products, again, the Japanese agricultural market is one of those protected markets in the world and it most likely will always be that way.

Again, its so simple to understand as the US economy has a trade deficit due to the fact that most countries want to sell their products in the US which is a major, if not the largest, consumer driven economy in the world.

The US is trying to have it its way only without thinking of what's best for the global economy or the long term.

The thing is, each country has a choice and the global economy is becoming a consumer driven economy with the global middle class getting bigger everyday which means consumers in other countries want and need new products, which eventually mean some companies in some countries might decide the US is not just worth it was there are other market globally that we can sell our products in now.

But it might take some time but that it could happen eventually as if the US is not interested in the global economy and what's good for everyone and other countries and other companies might just say its no longer worth it to sell in the US.

Have a nice day!

BOJ Keeps Rate The Same: Updated Dec. 25, 2024.

 

Bank of Japan keeps rates on hold amid caution over wages, Trump policies

Article Source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20241219/p2g/00m/0bu/017000c

Ideas:

The Bank of Japan always moves very slowly and if they don't see enough clarity they are not going to change the rate.

The Japanese wage situation is still not clear and maybe the reason for that is up to 70 percent of Japanese wage earners don't work for the large name-brand Japanese companies but instead work for small and midsize companies that didn't give the same wage increase that large companies did.

So maybe the 70 percent who didn't get the 5+ percent wage increase that large company workers got, their disposable income is still not enough to start to spend freely in the Japanese economy.

Sustained wage growth is not going to be that strong unless small and midsize companies can get some support from the Japanese government so that they can increase wages like what large companies are able to do.

Most likely many small Japanese companies are suppliers to large Japanese companies, and large Japanese companies might not agree to the idea of small supplier companies passing-on their increased material costs to the larger companies.

The Bank of Japan needs so specify just what is a positive cycle of wages and prices as is it related to as wages increase then demand for products will increase which means companies will increase the prices.

The Bank of Japan is correct in examining the potential affects of the next administration in the US not only on the affect in the US but also how its going to affect markets and economies globally too.

Everything right now is up in there air as no one knows what is really going to happen, and maybe many Japanese export companies are worried about the possibility of their products becoming more expensive in the US due to supposed tariff situation.

While the weak Japanese yen increases the price of Japanese products in Japan, it might not be that much, but the tariff situation might be enough for US consumers to think twice about buying some Japanese products.

The Bank of Japan might be thinking that the 2014 and 2019 Japanese sales tax increases had a lot of negative side affects that cause consumer spending to decrease over several months. 

So the BOJ might be thinking a possible rate increase might have the same affect with consumers decreasing their spending and companies not going to the banks to take out loans as the rate increase will increase the loan rates in Japan.

Real wages, maybe for large company workers are good, but for all the other workers, which makes up maybe 70 percent of workers just not strong enough to overcome the continued inflation in Japan and doesn't give them enough disposable income.

Most likely, like many countries, most citizens have no idea about the interest rate hike until they have to go to the bank for a loan or they see inflation has continued on in Japan that affects their disposable income too much.

Increasing the key interest rate can some side-affects which might or might not affect all citizens in a country. In that case its unclear if the Japanese people will accept the rate increase, as again, they have no idea what it is or what it does.

It seems the Bank of Japan has not clearly explained what are the expectations for the economy and prices. Does it mean inflation should be at or below the 2 percent target and does it mean prices should be based on consumer demand and consumers spending and not based on companies passing-on their increased costs to the next in the supply chain including the final retail customer.

It years past, the Bank of Japan has often stated the Japanese economy has been too weak for a rate increase so is there GDP growth rate that the BOJ might need to see before it considers a rate increase.

Or is the Bank of Japan just kicking the can down the road until the next meeting in January and then again, they might say we need to continue to see more data.

It seems the US Fed. might be thinking as the as the new administration comes in the Fed will take a wait and see as to what is going to happen to the US economy in 2025.

Inflation in the US might be increasing again, but will it be at the same level as during the pandemic or right after the pandemic.

The Japanese yen as been weak and most likely if will continue to remain weak in the future.

No doubt the Bank of Japan has no real intention, at this time, to increase the key rate, as it hasn't done much the past 15 years to increase the rate.

The Japanese yen has remained weak and maybe the BOJ wants the rate to remain weak to help Japanese exporters, Japanese investors in foreign countries, and the record number of foreign tourists who go to Japan and spend a lot of money.

Then of course there is the domestic economy and Japanese importers who see their import prices increase because of the weak yen, and then pass-on their costs to the next in the supply chain and maybe even the final retail customer.

The BOJ's ultraloose policy was probably a good idea the time in increasing the money supply in Japan so that more consumers and businesses had access to more money which was intended to increase spending in the Japanese economy.

But as stated the results were not there or not as much as expected as the Japanese economy was stagnant and never really improved that much.

And yes, the idea or theory of pumping more money into economy is strategy that can work and has been used in many different countries to stimulate economic growth.

And yes, maybe it was time to change strategies and begin to increase the key rate, but in July the markets were caught off-guard and reacted negatively toward the rate increase.

If the Bank of Japan does actually increase the rate in January the BOJ needs to communicate clearly to the financial markets what they intend to do and not be unclear or say we are still looking at the data. 

Have a nice day! 

Japan Nov. Trade Deficit: Updated Feb. 25, 2024

 

Japan's Nov. trade deficit shrinks to $5.4 billion, exports dip

Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20231220/p2g/00m/0bu/005000c

Ideas:

Exports might be important in many countries but it seems Japan and South Korea place even more importance on exports as an economic driver, meaning as a way to increase economic growth.

A trade deficit is nothing to worry about, especially in Japan, which usually has trade surpluses and not deficits. The US economy is a trade deficit economy as it always has more imports than exports.

The main idea here, should be, that the deficit shrank and maybe soon Japan will get back to trade surpluses. But of course it all depend, or depends a lot on what's going on in China as China is a major trade partner with Japan, as the Chinese economy seems to be going through a period of restructuring.

Japanese auto shipments are a major economic driver for the Japanese economy, meaning its significant for economic growth.

Japan is resource-poor country and anytime the global market increases prices on oil or gas Japan seems to feel it full affects because of the weak yen, which increases the prices of imports.

Its understandable, but Japan seems to be relying on exports to the US, especially car exports to improve its economy.

If the US economy was to go through another major crisis or recession, Japan would be in trouble, as it seems the rest of the global economy is not prepared to improve anytime soon, as the US seems to be carrying the rest of the world.

The deficit might not shrink significantly anytime soon, but as long as Japan can maintain a certain level of exports it should be fine for now.

Japan exports to the US more than cars as auto parts are a major export area too. Along with car parts, Japan is a major exporter of small micro size parts, which the country is known for and many small manufacturing companies produce one product and ship it to the US.

The US Federal Reserve will reduce its key rate in 2024, but how much will that affect the Japanese yen, which is weak, at the moment, because of the variance between the US rate and the Japanese rate.

The  Chinese economy is maybe going through a period of restructuring, and who knows how long its going to take the Chinese economy to get back to some kind of normal or at least a new normal.

Ever since the pandemic the Chinese economy has not been like it was before. But maybe the changes were taking place even before the pandemic.

Japan's exports to China was down only 2.2 percent, so not all is lost as Japan should easily make that up in the next quarter, if the Chinese economy gets back to normal so some kind of normal.

Its unfortunate that China has placed a ban on Japanese seafood, as it seems more political that reasonable, as many Chinese tourists still come to Japan and eat Japanese seafood.

But unfortunately that is the situation in South Korea and Japan now, as both countries seem to have strained relations with China.

Even though there might be some political strain among countries, global trade is still strong and as companies trade with each other trade between countries will continue.

Japan trade deficit with the rest of Asia is beginning to decrease and its only a matter of time for Japan starts seeing trade surpluses on many products.

The European Union appears to be the the sick partner in global trade as maybe the Ukraine/Russia situation continues to drag down the European Union.

And Italy appears to be the sickest of European countries as its economy is very weak at tis time.

Have a nice day and be safe!