Japan 2024 Rice Supply: Updated Aug. 19, 2025.

Japan's 2024 rice demand tops estimate, outstrips supply again

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250730/p2g/00m/0bu/046000c

Ideas

You would think, as important as rice is for Japanese consumers, that whomever in the Japanese government would be able to to estimate what demand will be each year, each quarter and so on.

There is something significantly amiss to what is going on with rice production in Japan and or Japan is not taking advantage of using foreign rice to supplement its rice supply.

Again, perhaps its time to open the flood gates in a let all the foreign rice that is needed enter Japan as unfortunately the domestic rice market is highly protected and even though Japanese consumers might not like all foreign rice as the price is high for domestic rice, some Japanese consumers will begin to buy the foreign rice as needed.

We live in a global world with products available from many different countries. There is no longer the need to protect some domestic sectors as cooperation and trade among countries is a win situation for everyone.

Supporting rice production in Japan is good and needed but at the same time, open the flood gates and let more foreign rice into Japan. Japan is an ageing society and the age of Japanese farmers is even worse, as more and more young people are heading to Osaka and Tokyo and other metro areas.

It's time to completely overhaul the rice producing sector in Japan and bring Japan into the 21st century. Most farms in the US are now corporate farms and not farms owned by individuals or families. While it might take a while corporate farming might be what is really needed in Japan, eventually, to overhaul the entire agricultural sector.

Unfortunately the weather has a large par to play in rice production, but again, with more scientific farming and even smart farming Japan could eventually turn its rice situation around but nothing is going to change if Japan doesn't move into the 21st century with the implementation of smart farms.

The Japanese government has got to setup plans to help farmers become 21st century smart farmers and get away from 19th and 20th century style of rice production.

It's quite possible but maybe not probable that certain middlemen groups have been controlling the rice market in Japan to keep the price high for their benefit. It will be hard to prove it or see it as some businessmen have subtle ways to influence the market and the price of products.

There might have never been any criminal motive to keep prices high other than to ensure that profits for some or certain groups remained high enough during the rice shortage period.

And again, the hot summer weather, at record levels had a lot to do with shortage and no doubt pest outbreaks also may have increased the shortage situation.

Yes, an increase in inbound for foreign tourism might have contributed some but not all of the rice shortage in Japan as foreign tourists didn't eat all of the rice supply in Japan.

And yes, in late July or early August of 2024 there was the idea of a potential major earthquake in the news in Japan which caused a run on rice and many consumers in Japan horded rice like some people horded certain products during the pandemic.

As a result of the rice hording, the rice supply resulted in a significant shortage that is still on on going in the summer of 2025.

So in essence, part of the rice shortage in Japan is the making of Japanese consumers over-buying rice supplies due to their fear of believing everything they hear in the news.

Have a nice day!

Rice Imports in Japan: Updated July 5, 2025.

Rice imports to Japan surge in May, 3.5 times FY 2024 total

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250627/p2g/00m/0bu/057000c

Ideas

The agriculture sector is probably the most protected sector in the Japanese economy as Japanese farmers are extremely protected from outside influences such as imports from other countries.

That is maybe one reason why prices for some Japanese agricultural products are so high as there is almost no competition related to prices in the Japanese market.

The Japanese rice emergency has kind of been a good thing as it has forced open the Japanese market, some, and more rice from other countries are finally getting a chance to show that other countries can grow quality rice too.

The foreign rice that is imported from foreign countries of course has a tariff on it which of course is like a tax on the product, which means of course the final customer will probably being paying the increase cost due to the tariff.

The challenge of course is going to be how will Japanese consumers and Japanese households feel about the possibility of eating foreign rice, as everywhere, globally, everyone thinks their products might be better.

But is the foreign rice is priced much cheaper some Japanese consumers might want or need to try it as a way to save some money, as Japanese rice tends to still be expensive.

There is no real proof but it seems there might be a cartel taking place in keeping the price high and even maybe during the auction the players in the auction might be colluding to keep the auction prices high.

There should never have been a rice shortage in Japan as the Japanese government should have released it reserves almost immediately into the market to stabilize prices.

At the same time, there seems to be too many middlemen in the Japanese rice market and rice after being harvested goes through different levels of middlemen and each one of course increases the price and when it gets to the supermarket it again goes through a price increase so the final customer has to pay a lot more than what the farmer got for it in the auction.

Japanese supermarkets and middlemen should have the ability to pick and choose what import rice products they want and need based on customer demand. If Japanese consumers actually begin to like foreign rice middlemen and supermarkets, in a free market system, should be able to buy and import foreign rice.

But unfortunately, due to the influence of Japanese farmers on the government the Japanese government might actually control how much foreign rice and enter the Japanese market each year.

Even though the WTO might have some rules related to a minimum that must be imported Japan and other countries always find ways to get around the rule.

Again, the price of Japanese rice is too high for too long, Japanese consumers might actually start looking at the foreign rice, which might be priced much cheaper than Japanese rice.

Its quite possible, even with the tariffs, the prices of the foreign rice might still be much lower than the price of Japanese rice, as again, the Japanese rice market and the logistics system in Japan keeps the price high because of all the layers the rice must move through before it gets to the final customer.

The rice shortage in Japan should never have happened as rice is a more food staple and Japanese families depend on the rice for everyday meals.

Certain foods should always be protected by the government to ensure they are there for everyday use by a country's citizens. Food such as bread, milk, eggs and in Japan and many Asian countries rice should be a protected product too.

Have a nice day!