Japan's real wages fall 1.3% in 2025, down for 4th straight year
Ideas
The disposable income of Japanese households continues to go down as wage increases can't seem to keep up with inflation along with the increase in price increases in Japan.
It must be remembered or considered, that up to 70 percent of Japanese workers don't work for the large name-brand companies in Japan but work for the small and mid-size companies which usually don't pay the same wage increases as the large companies as their profits margins are just too thin to try and match the large company wage increases.
And as the disposable incomes keep decreasing for Japanese households that means, after bills are paid, they have less and less money to spend in the economy, which means the economy is not going to grow as most consumers just don't have the needed extra money to spend on things in the economy.
Nominal wages are wages which includes the increase in inflation added on but is deceiving, as it looks good and looks like a consumer has more income but in reality real income is what matters for consumers and households everywhere.
Again, nominal wage increases just show how much inflation as increased as wage earners can see it in their paychecks but it really doesn't do anything for the disposable incomes of consumers as in the end, due to inflation, they actually have less to spend.
Consumer price increases of 3.7 percent might be even noticeable for most consumers who usually are just too busy to notice small increases in prices and if buying at a supermarket after a busy work day or a mother with two children just trying to get in and out of the supermarket, again they might not even notice the price increases.
But ask the low-income groups or the fixed income groups if they notice a 3.7 percent or even a 3.2 percent increase in consumer prices and most likely they can see and feel the increase in prices as they have a much limited disposable income to use in the supermarkets and in the economy, if any at all.
Yes, many Japanese companies at the shunto labor-management negotiations have agreed to increase the wages of their workers, which is of course very good and very needed, but the problem again, the small and mid-size Japanese companies, which might want to do the same thing, just can't do it at the same level, due their thinner profits margins, which means again up to 70 percent of the Japanese work force is still going to effected significantly by the inflation situation in Japan.
To be fair and positive, a 5.39 percent increase in wages is just an average and there might be some that will increase wages even more than that but not to dampen the mood there are going to be some or many that just can't match 5.39 percent as they might want to do and know they need to do it but their profits margins just can't handle a 5.39 percent increase in wage costs.
It has been suggested, in past articles, that many of the large Japanese companies, after the 2008 financial crisis began to sit on large cash reserves due to the possible uncertainty of the global economy at the time, but even today, its is suggested they are still sitting on huge reserves of cash and a increase of 5.39 percent in wages really doesn't seem like that much as they are still being very conservative with their funds.
Part of the problem or challenge is many of the large Japanese companies today are publicly owned which means they are accountable to shareholders who demand and expect a certain level of profit or return in their stock investments and increasing wages beyond 5 or even 6 percent level might be too much for even the large companies if they can't meet the profit projections as that their shareholders expect from quarter or quarter or even year to year.
Yes, private consumption or consume spending might make up to 50 percent of Japan's GDP or domestic product, but if consumers in Japan have decreased disposable incomes due to the continued increase in inflation there no way way consumer spending is going to be close to the 50 percent of GPD as consumer spending might make 45 or 48 or even 49 percent at the very most, and that amount is just not going to increase the growth of the economy in Japan.
It seems, and to be fair, the BOJ is relying heavily on wage increases to help improve economic growth in Japan. And its probably a good idea but again, large companies in Japan are going to do their part but the question mark, as always, is what are the small and mid-size companies going to do or what can they really do if anything to help boost the economy or increase wages enough to boost the economy.
Prices continue to remain high in Japan for several reasons, such as Japan is a resource-poor country which means it has to import much or what is needs as as global prices, due to many factors continue to increase, Japan importers and wholesalers continue to either absorb the price increases and or pass-on the price increases to the next in the supply chain which makes ultimately the final retail customer in Japan.
The other main reason is the variance between the US key rate and the Japan key rate due to the fact that for a period after the pandemic the US central bank kept increasing its key rate to try and decrease inflation while the BOJ kept its key rate almost at zero, suggesting the Japanese economy was just too weak for a rate increase and as a result the large variance between the US rate and the Japan rate as been a significant factor in the Japanese yen being very weak, which increases import prices in Japan.
As noted real wages decreased by 0.1 percent while nominal wages increased by 2.4 percent which means inflation might have increased by 2.5 percent or more from the previous year.
At the same time, again, it means Japanese household's disposable income or even purchasing power of consumers in Japan continues to decrease which means there is/was less spending in the Japanese economy which again means less or no economic growth for the economy.
Nominal wages might look good or feel good in the short-term but in reality real wages is what matter as it determines purchasing power and the amount of disposable income consumer or households really have too spend in the the Japanese economy.
Have a nice day!
