Japan Rice Exports: Updated March 18, 2025.

Japan aims to increase rice exports 8-fold to 350,000 tons in 2030

Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250312/p2g/00m/0na/017000c

Ideas:
The Japanese government, like all governments can have and needs long-term strategic plans to grow the economy, but this plan might be doable unless the Japanese government can more young people to become farmers as the population of older farmers is either passing-away or retire-ring or both. 

Then there the idea that most Japanese young people don't want to become farmers and the work might be considered too hard and not very lucrative.

However, there is a possible trend that some young Japanese or even mid-career Japanese want to move back to the rural areas and might consider becoming a farmer.

There is also the idea that farming has changed and is not the rural stereotype it once was with improvement technical and scientific advances in agriculture. 

Again, the Japanese population continues to decrease and at the same time, while the foreign population in Japan is increasing its not a one to one ratio.

There is also the ideas that rice, while a cultural food product in Japan, rice consumption keeps going down as more and more young people prefer western style food these days.

But its good for the Japanese government to try and improve the rice production to ensure that the shortage dating back to the summer of 2024 doesn't occur again, and its good idea to begin to think of exporting rice as a way to increase exports as Japanese rice is a popular rice around the world these days.

Yes, foreign tourists into Japan is at a record level now and they do foreign tourists do eat rice, and a lot of it, but can they replace the decreasing Japanese population in eating rice.

And yes, the farmer situation in Japan might be a crisis level with more and more farmers either quitting the farming industry, passing away, and or younger people not interested in that kind occupation these days, as they prefer to move to the big cities.

But again, its good that the Japanese government is considering rice as an export product, but can the Japanese agriculture sector produce enough rice not only for Japan but for export purposes  too.

The Japanese government will probably need to subsidize the Japanese farmers to get them to do what they need and want, as again, the population of Japanese farmers it decreasing significantly these days.

They might have to consolidate farms from a lot to a few and or merge farms if they can to get what they need and want.

Basically, this is a like what the US did, gradually, but many farms becoming large commercial farms and the small individual farmers decreased significantly over many decades.

The Japanese government needs to manage the on-going domestic rice shortage and then begin to strategically move rice into the export area as the rice situation stabilizes.

Maybe Japanese rice can be very good export product, as again, Japanese rice is a very popular food product and or those Japanese foods such as sushi and onigiri that uses rice can make it a very good rice export.

The Japanese population has been decreasing for years, for decades and the foreign population living in Japan is increasing but again its not a one to one situation.

If the Japanese government improved its immigration situation and allowed more foreign workers into Japan that would help along with improving the labor shortage in Japan, but its a very complicated situation related to the Japanese immigration agency allowing enough foreigners into Japan to reduce the current labor shortage.

Have a nice day!

Japan Rice Reserves: Updated March 13 2025

'Like watering a desert': Experts doubt release of reserves will lower Japan rice prices.

Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250304/p2a/00m/0bu/011000c

Ideas: 

Most agricultural products are sold at auctions, and as such most likely the farmers  or coops will have to take the price as given in the auctions. So buy low and sell high for the wholesalers who buy the rice. But as this is maybe a Japanese government situation the Japanese government has already bought the price so, the price might be high or low depending on what the government wants. 

Rice is a major stable in Japan and a cultural product so its kind of strange how this situation got out of control in the summer of 2024, and why didn't the government step-in immediately instead of just letting the market run its course, with low supplies and extreme prices in July and August and even now.

Yes, maybe flooding the market with the rice reserves from the Japanese government might not solve the problem as it takes time for prices to go down and momentum to gather in the market.

Most likely as most agricultural products are bought and sold in auction, as its the Japanese government selling the reserves, they might not want or expect high prices for the rice, which would be good news for the coops and wholesalers buying the government rice. 

But that doesn't mean that when the rice hits the supermarkets and restaurants that the price is automatically going to be low or less than now, as the market will decide what the price might be as again supermarkets and restaurants will want to continue to keep the price high ensure they have can re-coop their losses as maybe Japanese consumers either stayed away from buying or stopped going to restaurants, due to the rice shortage and the high prices.

If the article is correct it seems the Japanese government has a lot of rice reserves, so why didn't they use the rice reserves back in July or August of 2024 to help the market and Japanese households, and especially as inflation was already high, as the Japanese government could have done a lot to lesson the stress on its citizens last summer.

While its good that the Japanese government is finally releasing the needed reserves, what about the wholesalers and the agricultural cooperatives and their motives related to how they are going to price the rice reserves. Are they going to keep the market price high or are they going to lower the price to help Japanese households and Japanese society.

Again, prices normally don't go down very fast as it might take some time before the Japanese consumers begins to see rice prices back to pre-August 2024 if at all, as again the supermarkets and restaurants might keep the prices high for the immediate future, until the actual rice supply in Japan gets back to normal.

Markets are emotional and the rice market is no different. And yes, they are moved by supply and demand but more importantly they are moved my momentum and emotional considerations. For example, as there was/is a rice shortage in July and August of 2024, there was a so-called rice shortage during that time. 

As a result supermarkets, stores and restaurants began to increase the price of rice. As other supermarkets and restaurants began to feel the rice shortage and news spread quickly of possible rice shortage all supermarkets and restaurants began to increase their prices.

And at the same time, there were potential earthquake warnings, which scared many Japanese households and consumers began to rush the supermarkets to horde the rice there and supermarkets actually had to impose a limit on the number of bags of rice a consumer could buy as the rice shortage combined with the earthquake scare had Japanese consumers rushing to the supermarkets to get what rice they could.

So again, the price of rice might not go back to any kind of normal for a while as the rice market has to adjust to the new reserves and increase in the supply. And again, the market might not follow traditional market principles of supply and demand as again markets sometimes can be very irrational.

Yes, unfortunately not all in the market are rational as some farmers and suppliers will hold supplies and wait until the price is high enough for their liking as farmers and suppliers have to take the price as given in auctions and if they know the auction price is going to be low, they might not want to participate in the auction, instead waiting for higher prices auctions.

Its unfair to the Japanese consumer or supermarkets or restaurants, but the farmers and suppliers do have some power in the marketplace as to when they want to sell their products, as again they are price-takers, meaning at an auction they have to take the prices as given, and if they know at an auction the price is going to be too low for them or their liking they will not participate in the auction.

Its seem there might be some power struggles going on between the Japanese government and rice suppliers as maybe rice suppliers feel they can hold out until the Japanese government repurchases the rice suppliers rice at a higher price.

Of course, that is not good for Japanese society or Japanese households but maybe the rice suppliers are thinking about their self-interest and their survival in the rice market.

Also, as Japan is an ageing society, and many of the rice farmers might be somewhat old and they are thinking about their future and also about what could happen to the rice market down the road.

Would it be better for the Japanese government to flood the market with more than 210,00 tons of rice and then let the market decide the price instead of releasing small amounts of rice at at time, which might not have any significant effect on rice prices.

It seems normal supply and demand principles are not working in the Japanese rice markets, as increases supply should reduce prices but they really haven't at this time.

And again, it takes time for the market to react and adjust to any significant changes in the market.

Have a nice day!

Japan And Foreign Rice Prices: Updated March 5, 2025.

Japan's private rice imports hit record high amid inflation

Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250216/p2g/00m/0bu/028000c

Ideas:

The Japanese rice market is one of the most protected markets in the world next to maybe the South Korean rice market, as both countries have high tariffs on foreign rice going into each country.

Some have suggested the tariffs on foreign rice in Japan has been as high as 778%, which almost makes foreign rice unbuyable in Japan.

The rice market back in the summer of 2024 and maybe even 2023 had some not so good growing seasons which limited supplies and whenever there is a supply shortage prices will go up to protect the growers with the same profits margins and when there is no shortage.

At the same time, the Japanese government has as reserve of unused rice and should have flooded the market with the unused rice to stabilize prices as rice is major staple in Japan and is needed by only by restaurants, but supermarkets and Japanese families, with small children need the rice everyday.

At the same time the Japanese government should have implemented price controls into the market as a way to protect Japanese society from huge increases and price gougers.

Back in 2023 and 2024, the rice growing seasons in Japan were not as good as expected which resulted in a rice shortage in Japan. At that time, the Japanese government, which holds onto a large reserve of rice, just for situations like this, should have released their reserves much sooner to keep prices from getting out of control.

And or the Japanese government should have allowed for the increase of foreign rice into Japan without the high tariffs and it was would be considered an emergency situation, as rice is a table in Japan and is used daily and weekly but most if not all Japanese households.

Also, price controls too, should have been used to control the price of rice as it seems there was market failure and normal market principles were not in control in the rice market in 2023 and 2024.

A tariff is nothing more that a sales tax on products and usually the final customer or consumer always pays for the tariff as supermarkets and restaurants will pass-on the tariff the the retail customer.

If the government knew the tariff was  a sales tax and would be passed-on to the final customer, why have the tariff in the first place instead of reducing tariffs temporarily to the good of society instead of just protecting the rice farmers in Japan.

At the same time domestic output was supposedly less than normal which resulted in shortages for restaurants and supermarkets in Japan.

Sometimes government don't use common sense and just stick to ideas that protect their sovereignty and nor really think about the good of society that they are supposed to be serving in the first place.

If all of this rice was imported in Japan, why then did the price of rice remain so high through most of 2024. As most likely it was because of the high tariffs on foreign rice that should have been temporarily suspended for the good of society in Japan, or at least until the supply levels were back to some kind of normalcy.

At the same time, its been suggested that the taste and feel of Japanese rice is very different from rice in other countries which might play a part in the price of rice in Japan, but if so, Japanese households/consumers might not like foreign rice, so why continue to have high tariffs and prices on foreign rice in Japan.

Perhaps the Japanese government needs to increase the customs-free imports of rice as a way to protect Japanese consumers from high rice prices, and increase the supply and at the same time invoke emergence price controls to keep prices gougers from increasing the price too much and again to protect Japanese society.

It has been suggested the Japanese government didn't use the reserves of rice it had in an efficient way and or didn't release the reserve rice fast enough as prices significantly increase last August along with shortages in supermarkets and maybe restaurants too.

But all of this might be considered water under the bridge as most of this happened in 2024, but unfortunately its still happening in Japan today.

Prices increases of 27.7 percent and again 64.5 percent can only be considered market failure in the rice market in Japan, as whomever, wasn't in control of the rice supply, rice reserves and also reducing tariffs on foreign rice for the good of Japanese society.

If there was a short supply of domestic rice in Japan, wouldn't it have been beneficial to reduce the tariffs on foreign rice, as least temporarily, as a way to protect Japanese society and not just placating the ever decreasing number of Japanese rice farmers in Japan, who seem to have too much power at the detriment of Japanese society.

There should never have been a rice shortage in Japan or any kind of market failure in the rice market in Japan, as whomever, decided to just let the market handle the situation instead of the government stepping, in times of market failure, and protecting Japanese households and Japanese society.

There should always be a stable supply of rice in Japan as its a major staple that is eaten daily and a rice shortage should never have happened in Japan.

Have a nice day!

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