Half of firms expect Japan's economy to grow amid inflation concern.
Ideas
There is always going to a difference in opinion on how an economy is going to grow in the future and not all companies think the same as small companies might see thing very much differently from how large companies see the economy growing.
Of course the Middle East situation might be affecting many different companies so there is that aspect that both large and small companies might have the same thinking.
If an company. at the present time, such as many small companies are having challenges of course they are probably going to see things as not good in the future, while those companies that are doing better at the present time are going to see the future being better for them in the future.
And then there is the difference among sectors or industries as some industries will see the positives of the economy and the future while some industries might see the opposite and see the negative aspects of the economy in the future.
There are many reasons for companies to either feel positive or negative about the outlook of the economy in the future such as low consumer spending, an increase in prices, and increases in energy costs just to mention a few that seems to be on mind of all companies, both large and small these days.
Yes, there could be steady growth in the Japanese economy but that steady growth might only be 1.0 or at the best 1.5 percent in the future as the Japanese economy just doesn't grow that much these days and the main culprit is low consumer spending due to higher prices, higher energy costs, and less disposable incomes for Japanese households.
The idea of gradual economic expansion is probably correct as anything more than that might be asking too much for the Japanese economy as at the very best the economy might eek out a 1.5 percent growth but that alone might be expecting too much.
Of course capital spending by some of the larger companies might increase but don't expect anything from the mid-size and small companies as their profit margins are most likely just too compromised for an increase in capital spending in the future in Japan.
Yes, wage hikes have and will help the economy but it must be noted that there might still be significant variances between the wage increases for large companies and for the small/mid-size companies in Japan which makes up close to 99 percent of all companies which means workers as these companies still are not seeing the benefits that large company workers are.
Consumer spending in Japan is not the same as consumer spending in the US or even what it is in the EU, as in the EU is estimated to be about 52 percent maybe 54 percent and in the US its estimated to be about 68 percent while in Japan is estimated to upwards of 50 percent or more but the spending habits of the respective countries are very different.
The continued decrease in disposable incomes in Japan keeps decreasing among Japanese households and as a result they continue to cut-back on spending and only buy the essentials as needed.
And again, wage increase are good and needed but they were not the same for all workers in Japan which means many had less than needed or expected wage increases which means most likely their disposable incomes, needed for extra spending in the economy is less that what they want or need.
Of course, the large companies such as Toyota and Panasonic are going to be optimistic about there future earnings but the real challenge is what about the future earnings of the 99 percent of the small and mid-size companies in Japan as the large companies get all the news and headlines while the small companies seem to be invisible to most in Japan.
The large companies or most of the large companies in Japan probably have the resources needed to withstand the Middle East situation while the smaller companies don't as there profit margins were/are already compromised even before the Middle East situation began.
For many years, many Japanese companies were very reluctant to increase prices as they used to think those in their immediate supply chains were valued stakeholders and they didn't want to upset even the final retail customers so they absorbed their increased costs but those days seem long gone and Japanese companies seem to be quick to increase prices as pressure from shareholders expect significant earnings now every quarter.
And yes, it's too early to know just how much affect the Kumamoto Prefecture earthquake will have on the Japanese economy and of course the Kumamoto prefecture in Japan.
Of course the intervention by Japan and the US in the foreign exchange market, while not the best strategy, probably didn't really do much to help the Japanese yen from being weak and might at best just slowed it down some from getting weaker.
Have a nice day!
Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260809/p2g/00m/0bu/009000c