Japan Real Wages: Updated Feb. 13, 2025.

Japan's real wages fall 1.3% in 2025, down for 4th straight year

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260209/p2g/00m/0bu/019000c

Ideas

The disposable income of Japanese households continues to go down as wage increases can't seem to keep up with inflation along with the increase in price increases in Japan.

It must be remembered or considered, that up to 70 percent of Japanese workers don't work for the large name-brand companies in Japan but work for the small and mid-size companies which usually don't pay the same wage increases as the large companies as their profits margins are just too thin to try and match the large company wage increases.

And as the disposable incomes keep decreasing for Japanese households that means, after bills are paid, they have less and less money to spend in the economy, which means the economy is not going to grow as most consumers just don't have the needed extra money to spend on things in the economy.

Nominal wages are wages which includes the increase in inflation added on but is deceiving, as it looks good and looks like a consumer has more income but in reality real income is what matters for consumers and households everywhere.

Again, nominal wage increases just show how much inflation as increased as wage earners can see it in their paychecks but it really doesn't do anything for the disposable incomes of consumers as in the end, due to inflation, they actually have less to spend.

Consumer price increases of 3.7 percent might be even noticeable for most consumers who usually are just too busy to notice small increases in prices and if buying at a supermarket after a busy work day or a mother with two children just trying to get in and out of the supermarket, again they might not even notice the price increases.

But ask the low-income groups or the fixed income groups if they notice a 3.7 percent or even a 3.2 percent increase in consumer prices and most likely they can see and feel the increase in prices as they have a much limited disposable income to use in the supermarkets and in the economy, if any at all.

Yes, many Japanese companies at the shunto labor-management negotiations have agreed to increase the wages of their workers, which is of course very good and very needed, but the problem again, the small and mid-size Japanese companies, which might want to do the same thing, just can't do it at the same level, due their thinner profits margins, which means again up to 70 percent of the Japanese work force is still going to effected significantly by the inflation situation in Japan.

To be fair and positive, a 5.39 percent increase in wages is just an average and there might be some that will increase wages even more than that but not to dampen the mood there are going to be some or many that just can't match 5.39 percent as they might want to do and know they need to do it but their profits margins just can't handle a 5.39 percent increase in wage costs.

It has been suggested, in past articles, that many of the large Japanese companies, after the 2008 financial crisis began to sit on large cash reserves due to the possible uncertainty of the global economy at the time, but even today, its is suggested they are still sitting on huge reserves of cash and a increase of 5.39 percent in wages really doesn't seem like that much as they are still being very conservative with their funds.

Part of the problem or challenge is many of the large Japanese companies today are publicly owned which means they are accountable to shareholders who demand and expect a certain level of profit or return in their stock investments and increasing wages beyond 5 or even 6 percent level might be too much for even the large companies if they can't meet the profit projections as that their shareholders expect from quarter or quarter or even year to year.

Yes, private consumption or consume spending might make up to 50 percent of Japan's GDP or domestic product, but if consumers in Japan have decreased disposable incomes due to the continued increase in inflation there no way way consumer spending is going to be close to the 50 percent of GPD as consumer spending might make 45 or 48 or even 49 percent at the very most, and that amount is just not going to increase the growth of the economy in Japan.

It seems, and to be fair, the BOJ is relying heavily on wage increases to help improve economic growth in Japan. And its probably a good idea but again, large companies in Japan are going to do their part but the question mark, as always, is what are the small and mid-size companies going to do or what can they really do if anything to help boost the economy or increase wages enough to boost the economy.

Prices continue to remain high in Japan for several reasons, such as Japan is a resource-poor country which means it has to import much or what is needs as as global prices, due to many factors continue to increase, Japan importers and wholesalers continue to either absorb the price increases and or pass-on the price increases to the next in the supply chain which makes ultimately the final retail customer in Japan.

The other main reason is the variance between the US key rate and the Japan key rate due to the fact that for a period after the pandemic the US central bank kept increasing its key rate to try and decrease inflation while the BOJ kept its key rate almost at zero, suggesting the Japanese economy was just too weak for a rate increase and as a result the large variance between the US rate and the Japan rate as been a significant factor in the Japanese yen being very weak, which increases import prices in Japan.

As noted real wages decreased by 0.1 percent while nominal wages increased by 2.4 percent which means inflation might have increased by 2.5 percent or more from the previous year. 

At the same time, again, it means Japanese household's disposable income or even purchasing power of consumers in Japan continues to decrease which means there is/was less spending in the Japanese economy which again means less or no economic growth for the economy.

Nominal wages might look good or feel good in the short-term but in reality real wages is what matter as it determines purchasing power and the amount of disposable income consumer or households really have too spend in the the Japanese economy.

Have a nice day!

Japan Current Account: Ideas Later.

Japan logs record current account surplus for 2nd year in 2025

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260209/p2g/00m/0bu/021000c

Article to be deleted after ideas.

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan saw a record current account surplus for the second straight year in 2025, posting a 31.88 trillion yen ($202 billion) surplus on higher returns on foreign investments and a smaller trade deficit due to stronger exports, government data showed Monday.

The surplus in the current account balance, one of the widest gauges of international trade, grew 11.1 percent from a year earlier, hitting the highest level since comparable data became available in 1985, the Finance Ministry said in its preliminary report.

Primary income, which reflects how much Japan earned from overseas investments, grew 4.7 percent to 41.59 trillion yen, as dividends from offshore subsidiaries increased, it said.

The goods trade deficit plunged 76.8 percent to 848.7 billion yen with exports rising 2.5 percent to 107.76 trillion yen, on the back of robust demand for semiconductors and foods, while imports edged down 0.1 percent to 108.61 trillion yen.

The services trade balance saw a deficit of 3.39 trillion yen, up 22.2 percent, due to more payouts for research and development services abroad, including for copyright royalties, in the pharmaceutical and auto sectors.

The travel surplus, meanwhile, came to 6.34 trillion yen, hitting a new record, buoyed by upbeat inbound tourism.

A surplus in the travel balance means that spending by foreign visitors in Japan exceeded the amount spent by outbound Japanese travelers.

In December alone, the country's current account surplus dropped 32.0 percent from a year earlier to a 728.8 billion yen, the ministry said.

Tokyo Haneda Airports Users: Ideas Later.

Tokyo's Haneda airport tops 90 million users for 1st time in 2025

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260129/p2g/00m/0bu/016000c

Article to be deleted after ideas.

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The number of travelers using Tokyo's Haneda airport for domestic and international flights surpassed 90 million for the first time in 2025, driven by a surge in inbound tourism, the transport ministry said Wednesday.

Japan's busiest airport saw about 91.43 million travelers last year, a 6.7 percent increase from the previous year, although domestic travelers have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, it also reached the maximum slot limit of around 490,000 takeoffs and landings.

About 67.10 million people flew on domestic flights, up 5.5 percent from a year earlier, while international travelers rose 10.1 percent to a record high of around 24.33 million.

Passenger numbers on routes to and from China declined, while those to and from Hong Kong and Taiwan surged.

As it will no longer be possible to increase the number of takeoffs and landings at Haneda, the growing burden from inbound tourism will likely fall on Narita airport near Tokyo, a transport ministry official said.

Narita airport in Chiba Prefecture is undergoing a project to enhance its capacity by extending an existing runway and building a new one, which is expected to increase the number of takeoffs and landings from 340,000 to 500,000.

JAL sales in April-Dec. Update Feb. 7, 2026.

JAL sales in April-Dec. at record 1.51 tril. yen on firm inbound tourism

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260203/p2g/00m/0bu/029000c

Ideas

Both JAL and ANA should be seeing record sales and even record profits at this time as Japan is experiencing unseen records in foreign tourists entering Japan this past year. 

Of course maybe other airlines too are seeing record numbers as foreign tourists just keep going to Japan which might or might be at the saturation point yet for sustainable numbers.

It's interesting that Japan is not really that big of a country and travel from Hokkaido to Okinawa is really not that far but there seems to be a lot of domestic plane travel in Japan along with a lot of shinkansen or bullet train travel in Japan too.

At around 125 million people Japan is densely populated country and face to face business meetings is still an important component of doing business in Japan as Zoom and Microsoft teams have not completely taken over the business meeting aspect of business people meeting each other in Japan.

And yes, the situation with China is a little iffy right now as Japan and China once again are having challenges and travel from China to Japan has again taken a back seat to Chinese tourists visiting Japan.

Yes, a decrease in demand 20 to 25 percent might be considered significant but the overall effect might not be that bad as all other countries seem to be filling the gap as again there are a record numbers of foreign tourists entering Japan and JAL and both ANA might be getting their share of bookings these days.

China seems to be specialize in group bookings as maybe there is/are safety in numbers as maybe they prefer to travel in groups while other foreign tourists might prefer to travel alone or with one or two people only not in large groups.

For good or bad, intentional or unintentional, Japan every few years keeps making the same mistakes that upset both China or South Korea or both at the same time.

And again it's going to take some time before the situation calms down as always it seems to work itself out one way or another.

While its hopeful that they appetite to travel to Japan will return its not highly likely as what the powers to be say in China still resonates with a large part of the population but there are always the adventurous ones who might travel to Japan and ignore the powers to be.

More and more Chinese travelers, as has been suggested, are now not traveling in large groups but traveling on their own to places such as Japan or even South Korea these days.

JAL and maybe ANA too seem to have a good balance between domestic bookings and domestic bookings which complement each other and when one part is a little down the other part might be a little up which keeps the profits sustainable.

The only real grip, and its global, as ever since the pandemic or the end of the pandemic ticket prices have increased significantly and of course so has demand.

And unfortunately, airlines are a business so they always talk about customer service but in reality good customer service seems to be eroding in many airlines these days as they seem to be nit-picking with fee increases for luggage, fee increases for seats, and fee increases for whatever they feel they can get away with without regard or caring about the customers.

And yes, again, airlines are a business and as a business they have to maintain a certain level of profit to keep shareholder happy which unfortunately means due to fuel price increases, increases in demand, and increase in a number or areas they increase tickets prices.

And then there is there the segmentation of airline tickets to increase profits by separating the prices of aisle seats and window seats, segmenting premium economy from standard economy and who knows what else airlines do to get as much profit as they can from the customer.

JAL and ANA, while known for quality customer service do the same thing with many things related to the segmentation of customers as again they need to maximize profit as much as possible.

These budget carriers seem to always be having their ownership changed from one company to the next as they just can't seem to find the right business model and just are not sustainable in the long run.'

JAL already has some affiliate budget airline or regional airlines and there is only a limited number of resources and unfortunately budget airlines are always being sold or revived every few years or so it seems.

And yes, as expected JAL will probably transform jetstar into a new brand or something new version of the brand which seems to be quite common these days for budget airlines.

The barriers to entry for new budget airlines seems to be quite high and most just don't last that long no matter what they do, as they are only a limited number of travelers and if there are too many airlines and even too many budget airlines unfortunately the weak get left behind.

Of course name-brand loyalty is a major hurdle for any budget airline to overcome as flying with ANA or Japan in Japan, United or Delta in the US, or Korea Air in South Korea and or any of the name-brand Chinese airlines in China is a lot more earlier and maybe safer but maybe not easy on the budget.

Have a nice day!

Japan Farm Exports: Updated Feb.9, 2026.

Japan's annual farm exports rise to new record 1.7 trillion yen

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260203/p2g/00m/0bu/030000c

Ideas

The record of Japanese agricultural exports is not just about the popularity of Japanese food but about the practicality that the Japanese domestic market is decreasing each year and Japanese agricultural suppliers need to continue to find new markets and the global world is a huge market to be tapped by Japanese markets and its a sign of survival and not a sign of less nationalism in Japan.

And at the same time, to be honest Japanese food is becoming more popular as a South Korean too is becoming more popular as global consumers are willing to try different kinds of food with different kinds of tastes.

Yes, green tea is a major health product now, but at the same time, as global logistics costs have skyrocketed along the increase in demand for Japanese green tea, the price has increased significantly since the end of the pandemic.

Despite there being a supposed shortage of rice in Japan, shipments of Japanese rice is still being shipped globally as maybe the taste of Japanese rice is seen as being unique or it could just be an infatuation at the moment and the taste of rice produced in Japan tastes good just because it's Japanese.

But at the same time, the again, supposed shortage of rice production in Japan has impeded export rice as the powers to be just can't ship enough at they want, and to be fair, they can't even meet the needs of the domestic market much less global demand for Japanese rice at this time.

Rice is a major global product and many countries are able to produce rice so it's or like only Japan is able to produce rice which means there is significant competition which might limit the amount of rice that Japan wants or needs to ship globally.

The US is a top destination for many consumer products globally and green tea and seafood are examples of what US consumers might really like about Japanese food as some of the other offerings of Japanese food might not even be known by many US consumers.

And yes, the high US tariff situation might be having some effect but as long as US consumers continue to buy and want the products, Japanese suppliers and US importers are going to continue to bring to the US despite high tariffs.

Japanese food continues to be popular in many Asian countries and many Japanese restaurants are very common now in places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, the Philippines, and even China too.

Yes, the diplomatic row with China moves into row 2.0 or maybe row 25.0 as both countries seem to take one step forward and then ten steps back and can never seem to gain any kind of diplomatic sustainably between the two.

And yes, despite the diplomatic row between the two countries trade continues on but always of course not as much as before as there are gaps in many products being shipped or not shipped to China and or course gaps in products shipped or not shipped to Japan.

Of course the Chinese like Japanese beer too and even the diplomatic row can't stop the flow of Japanese beer to Chinese consumers who might prefer a Japanese beer over a Chinese domestic beer.

It seems a little strange but again, there is supposed to a shortage or was a significant shortage of Japanese rice in the domestic market but because of contracts globally those maybe had to be fulfilled even it it meant less rice being sold in the Japanese domestic market.

Japanese chain restaurants are now everywhere in Asia, again such as in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, and even in China and the US and even globally in the EU.

The global food market and or the global market of chain restaurants is significant and there are more and more Japanese restaurants also being opened every week which means the demand of Japanese rice globally continues to grow and probably will continue to grow as unfortunately the Japanese domestic market continues to decrease as the Japanese population just continues to decrease every year.

So Japanese rice and food producers probably have no choice but look outside Japan to the global food market to continue to increase their sales as again, there is only so much being bought in Japan which might not be enough to sustain many Japanese food producers.

So this always brings the discussion to the idea of immigration in Japan to increase the overall population in Japan in order to not only help producers and sellers in Japan but to help overall society in Japan despite some, and its a small but vocal group, who keep protesting that they don't want or need any more immigrants into Japan when its already known, that the majority of immigrant to any country bring needed skills and even more important need work values that can significantly help a country. But some in Japan again, like in some countries never get it.

Have a nice day!

Japan 2025 Industrial Output: Updated Feb. 6, 2026.

Japan's 2025 industrial output rises 0.8%, 1st increase in 4 years

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260130/p2g/00m/0bu/011000c

Ideas

Japan still seems to be a heavy industrial manufacturing economy even though, like most advanced economies has transitioned into a services and technology country.

With that said Japan still seems to think that manufacturing is the key to economic growth, next to China, its still heavily dependent on manufacturing and industrial development.

Because Japan is so heavily focused on the manufacturing of good its hasn't really developed much in terms of software as Japan still relies on the US for much of its software, which has become a major source challenge for the economy and businesses in Japan. 

Auto production in Japan is an economic driver and at this time might be the only real economic driver that improves the economy.

And economic drivers is any economic activity that over the long-term improve the growth of the economy.

Some might say foreign tourism is another possible economic driver as it too has seen record number of foreign tourists going to Japan, but tourism, unfortunately is very susceptible to swings, as for example now there is the supposed boycott of Chinese tourists going to Japan, which China at one time used to be Japan's largest group, being next door to Japan.

The only thing that Japanese producers can do is endure the situation as maybe someday it can get back to some kind of normal or at least a new normal as the phrase was always used during the pandemic as a way to try to normalize the situation.

The tariff situation, unfortunately, is here for another three years and who knows what is going to happen exactly in the future, but companies need to just keep moving forward and stockholders and others just need to be aware that the profits of the companies they invest in might not get the same return as before.

Yes, uncertainty is always going to be there, even in the best of times as their always going to be potential pitfalls in demand, supply chains, material costs increasing and even government interference in some countries to name a few things.

All a company can do is assess the situation the best they can and keep moving forward with maybe focused on less growth or less profits as a way to get through the challenging times.

Inventories are both positive and negatives depending on which side of the coin you like, as for example a decrease in inventories could be demand for a companies products were higher than expected and or the estimate demand was not estimated correctly which happens some times.

And then there is the idea of too much inventory sitting in a company's warehouse or on the docks of a port such as LA or Long Beach in the US, as importers in the US or suppliers int he US don't need as much of the product but the company went ahead and continued to manufacture and send the product to the US hoping demand would change.

And at the same time, high levels of inventories has the potential too signal the beginning of some kind of recession as means for a product or products if it is sector wide might be a challenge for an economy.

The industrial output dropping to 101. 8 doesn't really mean much as there is not that much of a statistical variance other than maybe as December in Japan had a long year end holiday that might have been the reason for the drop in output.

But then again, the US tariff situation and the Chinese economy situation good be having an affect on production and manufacturing in Japan but even with a 2.7 percent drop in November its still not that significant yet.

Yes, production can and does fluctuate indecisively, as there always demand challenges, supply challenges with supply chain breakdowns, material costs increases, and equipment repairs and breakdowns at manufacturing plants.

As there are 15 industrial sectors, like an economy being highly complex, not all industrial sectors are going to be positive at the same time, as again, demand and supply chain challenges have a big say in how much is produced and what gets to the markets either in Japan or globally.

Hopefully, as again as car manufacturing in Japan is the main economic driver, demand for Japanese cars are still in high demand as the Japanese economy depends on the production and sale of cars.

And at the same time, its unfortunate, that Japan has been unable to develop any more significant economic drivers that can help move the economy forward, as it seems back into the late 80's or early 90's it seemed to almost give up being competitive in producing products that appealed to consumers globally.

Also has its very apparent South Korea, Taiwan, and China has replaced Japan as a producer of quality products wanted and needed by consumers globally, as Samsung in South Korea, Asus, and Acer in Taiwan, and now many Chinese quality products are being developed as it seems Japan just doesn't have the will to try and match these products these days that these countries produce.

Again, an economy is very complex and every sector or every industry is not going to be positive all the time as there are always going to be challenges related to demand and supply chain problems but a company has to learn how to overcome the challenges and at the same time but into place ways to overcome the scenarios when they do occur as no sector or no industry or no company is exempt from unexpected challenges.

The industrial shipments being at 98.7 is not really bad but its not really good too as maybe again, the Chinese economy situation and the US tariff situation could have affected the industrial shipment situation in Japan.

And again the inventory situation at 98.3 too is not good but also not bad and the Chinese situation and the US tariff situation might have reduced demand somewhat as maybe there were some supply chain challenges that reduced shipments and increased inventories at some companies in Japan.

Have a nice nice day!

Japan Private Rice Imports: Updated Feb. 11, 2026.

Japan's private rice imports rise 96-fold to hit record high in 2025

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260129/p2g/00m/0na/039000c

Ideas

Ever since the summer of 2024, Japan has had a supposed domestic rice shortage brought on by poor weather conditions and the news in late July and early August of a possible earthquake near the Osaka/ Kobe area which created a massive hording of rice on the market which left Japan at the time with rice shortages and higher than normal prices for the main food staple in Japan.

Before then, before the supposed rice shortage, foreign or imported rice was never that popular as Japanese consumers, up that time again, seemed to prefer Japanese as maybe it tasted better or maybe it was just cultural or even nationalistic idea that Japanese rice is always better than foreign rice.

But the situation has changed considerably as the price of domestic rice has just been too expensive some income groups began to look for rice substitutes and foreign rice was less expensive due to the fact it was not a popular at the time.

And many Japanese restaurants began to use foreign rice too, as even the normal cost of rice before the supposed shortage was creeping up due inflation in Japan, and even other materials needed by restaurants became even more expensive so they too begin to find substitutes to reduce their already out of control profit margins.

Yes, even though, as usual, Japan puts a tariff on foreign or imported rice to try and protect the local rice market, foreign rice was cheaper and again many consumers in Japan from the lower income groups started to buy the foreign rice.

And of course due to the continued inflation situation in Japan with material costs increasing among all businesses including restaurants, they too began to buy large quantities of foreign rice to make their sushi and many convenience stores which make rice balls or what is called onigiri in Japan started to use foreign rice as their profits margins too just became too much to control.

With regard to agricultural products Japan has always been a high tariff country with idea of trying to protect its agricultural market and or protect its farmers from too much outside competition or interference in the Japanese market.

 And yes, the US, as a good example, has always tried to move more into the Japan's domestic market with the importing of more agricultural products and of course US beef but up until recently has not been very successful at significantly penetrating the Japanese domestic market.

And of course the WTO has tired unsuccessfully to get the Japanese to open their markets more but the powers to be just have had to much pressure from the Japanese farm lobbying groups to keep the Japanese agricultural market closed and protected as much as possible.

And yes, in more recent times, Japan has opened up its markets more and the supposed rice shortage that again, hit the domestic economy in the summer of 2024, forced the Japanese government to open more the economy to foreign rice to help alleviate the struggles of ordinary citizens and Japanese restaurants who just could pay the high prices of Japanese domestic rice.

Even though there is was more foreign rice entering the Japanese market doesn't mean all or many Japanese consumers wanted to like foreign rice, as again the preference for food from your own economy or places is always going to b there and there are always going to be those who might not like it just because it foreign.

But, again, convenience stores and restaurants due to the increased costs of many things in Japan have moved away from the expensive domestic rice to using foreign rice for their sushi and rice balls and for the most part, even they might be required to show where they got the rice for the products they make, most likely busy consumers don't read the signs about where the rice comes from as they only want eat and move on.

And yes, Japan relented to the WTO and has begun import a limited amount of tariff-free rice but only a minimum amount as a way to keep the Japanese rice lobby groups happy by not completely opening the agricultural markets in Japan.

And yes, there is certain amount of the foreign or private sector rice that has been designated for both groups, the retail groups and the restaurant groups with both groups are struggling with the continue high price of domestic rice prices in Japan.

Overall, the domestic rice shortage should never had happened in the first place as the powers to be in Japan should have been on top of the situation from the beginning but, as usual, there just might be too many layers in the checks and balances system in Japan and or too many layers of beau racy and no one know what is going on sometimes such as the right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing sometimes and decisions that had to be made took too long too to decide, which meant many consumers in Japan went without rice for much of the summer and it never should have happened again in the first place as rice is the main staple in Japan and always will be.

Have a nice day!