Japan Aug. Current Account: Ideas Later.

 

Japan Aug. current account surplus grows on higher overseas dividend income

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TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan posted a current account surplus of 4.06 trillion yen ($25 billion) in August, as the primary income surplus expanded on higher dividend income from overseas subsidiaries, government data showed Thursday.

The current account surplus, one of the widest gauges of international trade, increased by 12.0 percent from a year earlier, marking the 19th consecutive month of surplus, the Finance Ministry said in a preliminary report.

Primary income, which reflects how much Japan earned from overseas investments, grew 21.6 percent from the previous year to 5.13 trillion yen.

It reached a record monthly high since comparable data became available in 1985, helped by strong earnings and the yen's depreciation, the ministry said.

The goods trade balance showed a deficit of 687.7 billion yen, compared with a surplus of 113.8 billion yen a year earlier.

Exports gained 16.9 percent to 9.86 trillion yen, reflecting robust demand for chip-related electronics and autos, while imports advanced 26.7 percent to 10.55 trillion yen as crude oil prices soared amid the prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Among other key components, Japan's services deficit shrank 56.6 percent from the previous year to 115.8 billion yen. Although the number of inbound visitors to Japan and Japanese travelers going abroad both declined, the travel surplus improved on the back of robust inbound tourism demand, a ministry official said.

According to data from the Japan National Tourism Organization, inbound tourists fell 9.6 percent from a year earlier to 3.10 million in August, while outbound travelers dropped 3.6 percent to 1.59 million.

A surplus in the travel balance means that spending by foreign visitors in Japan exceeds the amount spent by Japanese residents overseas.

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20261008/p2g/00m/0bu/011000c

BOJ Economic View: Ideas Later.

BOJ upgrades economic view of 2 regions on strong AI demand

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TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The Bank of Japan on Thursday upgraded its assessment for two of the nation's nine regional economies as demand for artificial intelligence-related infrastructure and products increased.

In its quarterly Sakura report, the central bank lifted the assessments of the Tohoku region in the country's northeast and the western island of Shikoku. It said all areas were either "recovering moderately," "picking up," or "picking up moderately," although weaknesses could be seen in some regions, in part due to Middle East tensions.

The report cited views from its regional offices representing areas including Tokai, where Toyota Motor Corp. and many auto parts suppliers are based, Tokyo, and Kinki, which includes Osaka and Kyoto, compiled ahead of a branch managers' meeting earlier Thursday.

Supply disruptions caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran since late February have eased as companies sought alternative sources and routes, the report said.

Private consumption has remained firm as bonus increases spurred purchases of luxury items. Meanwhile, accommodation firms saw solid demand despite a fall in the number of inbound Chinese tourists on the back of Sino-Japanese tensions, as people flocked to facilities during the summer holidays and were incentivized by promotional discounts.

On wage hikes, which the BOJ views as key to deciding whether to raise interest rates, companies said they intend to keep raising pay even if expenses eat into profits, with others expecting similar wage increases for fiscal 2027.

Companies continued to hike product prices as Middle East tensions led to higher energy and raw material costs while demand remained solid.

"We are closely monitoring whether consumers will become more frugal-minded as firms pass costs on to customers on the back of the situation in the Middle East," Kenji Fujita, general manager of the Osaka Branch, said during a press conference.

The BOJ raised its key interest rate to a 31-year high of 1.25 percent last month and signaled that more hikes may come to keep inflation in check.

The Sakura report -- named after its cherry blossom-colored cover -- is the Japanese equivalent of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Beige Book and is released every three months following a meeting of the BOJ's regional branch managers.

Article source:    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20261008/p2g/00m/0bu/042000c

BOJ and Ideas On Rate Hikes: Ideas Later.

BOJ's Sato backs gradual rate hikes despite opposing Sept. increase

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TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Bank of Japan policy board member Ayano Sato said she supports gradually raising the central bank's policy interest rate, signaling openness to further hikes.

Sato, one of two board members who opposed a rate hike at the BOJ's September policy meeting, said in a recent interview with Kyodo News she is concerned consumer spending could weaken but declined to comment on the timing of the next rate hike.

Sato, who joined the BOJ board in June, said the timing of future rate increases should take into account trends in private consumption and income.

"I support the policy of adjusting (the key rate) gradually," Sato said, adding that higher rates "can contribute to achieving sustainable economic growth."

The BOJ last month raised its key interest rate to a 31-year high of 1.25 percent, signaling further hikes may follow.

Sato and Toichiro Asada voted against a rate increase at the September meeting. Both are considered reflationists who favor monetary easing and aggressive fiscal spending.

Their opposition fueled expectations that further rate hikes would be difficult, sparking yen selling against the U.S. dollar as investors bet that the gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates would remain wide.

Sato was appointed to the BOJ board by the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who has expressed caution about rate increases.

Sato stressed that the central bank should make policy decisions independently while ultimately aligning its policy with the government's expansionary fiscal stance.

Explaining her opposition to the rate hike at the previous meeting, Sato said the momentum in private consumption "has not been that strong."

She declined to specify which economic indicators supported her assessment, saying only that she considers a range of data.

She said upside risks to inflation have also increased somewhat, citing instability in the Middle East and higher crude oil prices.

At the same time, she warned that strong artificial intelligence-related demand could weaken quickly depending on moves by major companies. The outlook could "shift sharply toward pessimism," she said.

Sato also said that if the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, the economy could cool rapidly and inflation could slow.

Article source:   https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20261007/p2g/00m/0bu/030000c

Japan Real Wages In August: Updated Oct. 7, 2026.

Japan's real wages in August rise 1.5% on year, up for 8th straight month

Ideas

Real wages are an important metric as they help determine the possibility of how much disposable income consumers in Japan have, but at the time inflation has a say into how consumers want to spend in the economy.

Yes, prices might be slowing some, but for the average Japanese family they might still be too high and again it might reduce their disposable income and their ability to spend in the economy.

Nominal wages are just what they are and while they look good there is the idea related to the purchasing power of consumers and that too is important as nominal wages also include how much inflation as increased which can affect a consumer's purchasing power.

All in all, Japan just might be coming out of its dark days of deflation and stagflation and actually beginning to show some real growth but at the same time it must be remembered that Japan is still and advanced economy and advanced economies never really grow that much.

 This is a positive sign that Japan just might be seeing some positive signs for its economy and just might be finally shaking off the pandemic rust and stagnating that has constrained the economy the last five or six years.

But not to put a damper of the situation, its a little too early to celebrate just yet, as there needs to be more done as wages need to continue increase and inflation needs to be contained little more and the weak Japanese yen needs to be strengthened some too.

Yes, of course there are still major challenges that need to be looked as prices continue to increase and haven't seemed to level off just yet as consumers in Japan are still stressed out by the continuous increase food prices along energy prices affecting most Japanese households.

While energy subsidies are good and needed sometimes relying on them too much can  be a major constraint on an economy as it increases the government debt as someone has to pay for the subsidies and it allowed to run too long can become a major challenge for an government, but again they are still needed from time to time to help households.

The Japanese govt. for a long time has been encouraging companies to increase wages for the good of society and the good of the economy and only the past two years or so have companies finally begun to increase wages.

For too long it has been suggested, that Japanese companies were, at least the large name-brand companies were sitting on huge sums of cash as they were somewhat risk adverse and it all started around the 2008 financial crisis and ever since them they have been reluctant to use the extra cash reserves in giving wage increases to their employees.

And at the same time many of the these large companies have become too conservative due to the fact that that they have to look after their shareholders which expect positive quarterly reports and they can't go spending their money on increasing wages when their shareholder might not like it.

Have a nice day!

Article source:    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20261007/p2g/00m/0na/013000c

Japan Aug. Jobless Rate: Updated Oct. 5, 2026.

Japan jobless rate rises to 2.5% in August, 1st deterioration in 5 months

Ideas

Japan, for the most part, has had one of the lowest unemployment rates among advanced nations and even at 2,5 is still very good.

But, unfortunately, that doesn't means all is well in Japan as up to 36 percent of workers in Japan are either irregular or contract workers which means the get less benefits and wage that are much less than normal everyday workers in large Japanese companies.

Japan, supposedly, is in a period of a labor shortage, which means there are more jobs available than workers and so Japanese workers know this as some of them might be voluntarily quitting their jobs and hoping to get a new job soon.

At the same time, the 400,000 who were dismissed were, due to strict labor laws in Japan that protect full-time regular workers, most likely were contract workers or part-time workers who work on limited contracts and can easily, but quietly let go, as companies try to cut costs. 

It used to be, maybe even not that long ago, finding and getting new or different job while still employed was very difficult and workers didn't quit their jobs to look for a new job, but it seems, these days, the situation is much better for those who need and want to find a job.

Yes, for the most part, the job market is not in bad shape for large Japanese name-brand companies that have the resources to pay for the workers they want and need, but for the 99 percent of companies in Japan, that are small and mid-size companies, they might not have the resources needed to hire who they need and want and its a completely different story.

As such, there have been other reports or articles suggesting that some companies actually go out of business, small companies, because they can't afford to pay the wages that workers want or need in today's economy.

The idea that there are 118 jobs for every 100 job seekers might sound promising, but it must be remembered that up to 36 percent of the workforce in Japan is either part-time or contract workers working with reduced wages and even a time limit on a contract.

Even though there might be a lot of jobs available in Japan, due to supposed labor shortage,  there are many sectors in Japan that just can't hire new workers or they just don't have the resources, due their very thin profits margins, to either increase wages and or even hire new workers, as labor costs, raw material costs, and energy costs have limited them do to much.

It might be plausible to think, in Japan, due to the record number of foreign tourists entering Japan, that the accommodation and restaurant services sector would be doing much better but because their profit margins are very thin, all of the costs mentioned above are significantly affecting them they can't afford to hire any new workers now.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20261002/p2g/00m/0bu/020000c

Japan Aug. Industrial Output: Updated Oct. 1, 2026.

Japan Aug. industrial output falls 1.7% as disasters hit auto production

Ideas

It seems Japan is always being hit by either earthquakes and or typhoons that either shut down production and or slow down products for days or even weeks.

Despite Japan transitioning to the service and technological age the Japanese economy is still a major manufacturing economy and will be one, it seems for many years.

But a 0.2 percent drop is not that much as it's in the zone of where stats can be off or on depending on a statisticians perspective.

When the phrase: fluctuates indecisively" it means that there are going to be many up and downs due weather, earthquakes, supply chain challenges, equipment/machine maintenance up and downs during a quarter or even a year, as for the most part, almost no line or manufacturing plant is able to run every day without having some challenges.

A index score of 102.6 is still in the positive range and Japan and manufacturing companies don't need to panic or worry too much as a positive scores shows what is working is working for Japanese companies.

An economy is made up of many different sectors and not all of the sectors are going to see positive results every month or even every quarter as there are an multitude of reasons that can cause disruptions.

And as indicated production suspensions, disruptions in supply chain and parts supply problems, and any number of reasons, including weather challenges can reduce the days that factories stay online.

Again, a economy is very complex with many different sectors and industries and not all of the sectors or industries are going to be positive each month or even each quarter due to, again, many factors such as mentioned scheduled maintenance challenges that affect all factories and machines in the factor including the major car factories in Japan.

Of course, as again an economy is very fluid and also very complex there are always going to be ups and downs within an economy for any number of reasons.

It should be remembered, too, that what Japanese manufacturers produce is not just for the Japanese economy as Japan is a major export economy and exports many manufactured products globally and it basically rebuilt its economy on exports after WW11.

The summers month with the Obon or summer holiday period, and then with the summer typhoons and constant earthquakes, the summer season sometimes is much slower than the fall season.

And has expected September and October should be much better for manufacturing in Japan as things begin to get back to normal with less interruptions.

The summer season, globally, is usually a low period for manufacturing and even for industrial shipments as most economies take breaks during the summer season as they begin to get back to normal in the fall season.

And yes, inventories can be seen as being up or down depending on company estimates related to demand for their products such as if they estimated correctly inventories shouldn't be too much up or down and as a decrease of 0.5 percent to 97.6 is still decent and should not concern too many that much.

Have a nice day!

Article source:   https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260930/p2g/00m/0bu/027000c

Japan Price Hikes: Update Oct. 4, 2026

Japan to face price hikes on over 3,000 food items in October

Ideas

For a very long time, until just recently, Japanese companies almost never passed-on their increased costs to the next in the supply chain including final retail customer as all in the supply chain, especially the final retail customer, were considered stakeholders and valued member of the company family.

But those days seem long gone and companies, now days, have no problem and maybe now, have no choice but to pass-on their costs to the next in the supply chain.

It seems like, for a while ever since the pandemic Japanese households haven't been able to get a break as their disposable income keeps shrinking except for some who have benefited from the wage increases that companies have given out the past two or three years.

And it should be remembered that not all households got the same wage increase as up to 70 percent of the Japanese workforce doesn't work for the name-brand large Japanese companies but small and mid-size companies in Japan that don't have the needed resources to give the same wage increases.

And this is not only happening in Japan but this is a global problem as prices of packaging materials and products even on amazon have increased too. And yes the weak yen have been a problem for some time but at the same it's also a positive, especially for Japanese exporters who export their product globally.

Again, for a long time, Japanese companies were very reluctant to pass-on their costs to the next in the supply chain including the final retail customer. But to hear and see this many products seeing prices increase is a strong indication that what companies did the past of thinking as customers as being stakeholders is long gone as maybe for many of the companies now increasing prices they only think or can only think of their shareholders being important and now not so much their customers any more.

All these price increase are going to do is drive away some or many customers and they are going to either limit what they buy or even need and or try to find substitutes for, unfortunately, less healthy food or products.

And the Japanese economy might suffer with less consumer spending and which ultimately companies too will begin to feel the affects of less consumer spending in the economy and this will continue until something is done where the government and business can come together to solve the problem for the good of society.

And even more increases in utilities will further decrease the disposable incomes of Japanese households which means even less spending in the economy. Some might think 1,578 yen is not that big a deal but for low-income families, contract workers, part-time workers, and even fixed income families it is a big deal as they also have limited incomes and now its going to be even less.

And unfortunately, Japan if not already, is becoming or has become, a two-tiered society of the haves, which are upper income group, which doesn't feel the prices increases as for most part, they just go about their day not even noticing what is happening with prices. 

 And then there is the have-nots such a as the middle class, the low-income families, the contract workers, and the part-time workers and their world is getting more difficult by the day and there doesn't seem to be any end insight for them.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260930/p2g/00m/0bu/031000c