Japan May Current Account: Ideas Later.

Japan logs 3.97 tril. yen current account surplus in May on firm exports

Article to be deleted after ideas.

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan posted a current account surplus of 3.97 trillion yen ($24.2 billion) in May, as the trade balance swung into the black on strong exports of semiconductor-related devices to other parts of Asia and autos bound for the United States, government data showed Wednesday.

The Finance Ministry said in the preliminary report that persistent diplomatic tensions led to a shrinking surplus in the travel balance and a decline in the number of Chinese visitors to Japan, causing services trade to fall into the red.

Japan's current account surplus, one of the broadest measures of international trade, increased by 19.5 percent from a year earlier, marking the 16th consecutive month of surplus. The ministry reported that the growth was driven by expanding returns on securities held by financial institutions and other companies.

Primary income, which reflects how much Japan earned from overseas investments, advanced 2.3 percent from a year earlier to 4.28 trillion yen, it said.

The goods trade balance turned positive, with a surplus of 6.9 billion yen compared to a deficit of 497.1 billion yen the previous year.

Exports gained 14.7 percent, reaching 9.36 trillion yen, reflecting robust demand for chip-related electronics, driven by the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence technology.

Imports rose 8.1 percent to 9.35 trillion yen, including crude oil from the United States, as the Japanese government taps alternative sources of fuel and petroleum products due to supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.

The trade deficit in services widened to 10.3 billion yen from a surplus of 130.9 billion yen a year earlier due to a decline in the travel surplus.

According to data from the Japan National Tourism Organization, the number of tourists from China in May fell for the sixth consecutive month, plunging 60.4 percent over the year to 313,000, following remarks in November by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Japan's potential involvement in an attack on Taiwan.

Overall, inbound visitors to Japan fell 3.6 percent to 3.56 million and outbound travelers increased 4.7 percent to 1.13 million in May, JNTO said.

A surplus in the travel balance means that spending by foreign visitors in Japan exceeds the amount spent by Japanese residents overseas.

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260708/p2g/00m/0bu/018000c

Japan Jan.-June Bankruptcies: Ideas Later.

Japan bankruptcies in Jan.-June top 5,000 for 1st time in 12 years

Article to be deleted after ideas.

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The number of corporate bankruptcies in Japan in the first half of 2026 involving debts of at least 10 million yen ($62,000) rose 7.1 percent from a year earlier to 5,346, topping 5,000 for the first time in 12 years, a credit research company survey showed Wednesday.

The figure comes as a weaker yen has accelerated inflation, putting pressure on the finances of businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, Tokyo Shoko Research said.

With a prolonged labor shortage also acting as a headwind, an official of the research firm warned that "the pace of bankruptcies may accelerate from fall."

Bankruptcies at firms with fewer than 10 employees accounted for 90 percent of the total, while those with liabilities of less than 100 million yen made up nearly 80 percent.

Bankruptcies attributed to rising prices increased 27.6 percent from the same period the previous year to 439, while those tied to labor shortages climbed 37.7 percent to 237. Among those, cases involving surging labor costs jumped to 120, up 2.4-fold.

By industry, bankruptcies rose in eight of 10 sectors, with services leading at 1,819 cases, up 7.2 percent, followed by construction at 1,026.

Restaurants and food retailers have been hit by consumers cutting back, while businesses are increasingly reaching the limit of their ability to pass rising costs on to customers through higher prices, Tokyo Shoko Research said.

Bankruptcies increased in all of Japan's nine regions except for Tohoku in the northeast, led by Hokuriku in central Japan with a 37.3 percent rise, followed by Hokkaido in the north at 17.1 percent.

Looking ahead, the research firm said the situation in the Middle East is already affecting the cash flow of small and medium-sized businesses.

In June alone, bankruptcies rose 20.4 percent from a year earlier to 1,021, exceeding 1,000 for the first time in 25 months.

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260708/p2g/00m/0bu/026000c

Japan Homes and Heat Stress: Updated July 6, 2026.

Japan survey finds nearly 80% stressed by heat at home as scorching summer looms

Ideas

Japan, the last few summers or maybe longer have had record high summer temperatures and it looks like it's going to be the same again this summer.

Back in around 2005 the Japanese government started a PR campaign called "Cool Biz" as a way to encourage Japanese company workers to go to work without a tie or even a suit jacket and might have suggested companies keep the temperature as a certain level to avoid energy blackouts during the peak work times.

Back in the summer of 2011, just after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in the Tohoku region, I was in a Yokohama and even there at Yokohama station metro complex many of the stores in the complex were running their air conditioners at a low level and you could feel they were not on that high to save energy and avoid energy blackouts in the Tokyo area.

Most likely, as always many Japanese consumers are probably, if they can, go to the major metro complex or train station areas which are large shopping areas as a way to avoid the heat at their homes and avoid running their air conditioners too much.

But the problem is, being in Yokohama for many summers on and off, there just aren't a lot of places to just sit for an hour or so to cool down. And even the few coffee shops there don't really have a lot of tables or chairs and they can get filled up very quickly in the mornings and some might stay there for a long time, preventing other consumers from going there.

If a person was to go to landmark tower in Yokohama there are two Starbucks coffee shops and one large coffee shop on the far east side of Landmark where shoppers can stop get a drink and take some time to cool off if needed, but the two Starbucks will again fill up very quickly as people tend to stay there for a while too. And there always seems to be long lines at the two Starbucks during the summer season.

Not to criticize but in South Korea, in Seoul, there seems to be a coffee shop on every corner and even there they can fill up very fast when the summer heat become too much, but in Japan, at least in the Tokyo area, there just doesn't seem to be that many coffee shops were people can go and sit for a while to get out of the heat, have a drink, and cool off some.

So they have to go to the major metro shopping and train station areas where at least can walk around in a cool air conditioned environment and go eye shopping or something to keep from running their home air conditioners all day and all night.

The problem is, as always, is the challenge for the low-income households or families and what they can do and they might to go to the major metro train shopping areas but can they afford to just go there everyday to get out of the heat without spending a lot of money there at the same time.

It has been suggested and very much needed for the Japanese government is going to have energy subsidies for the summer months as most if not all families, expect the upper-income groups are going to be significantly affected by the summer heat.

And unfortunately, as Japan is an super ageing society, there are going to many aged people who are going to be severely affected by the heat and Japanese hospitals and clinics are probably on-call now for a surge in heat related challenges with aged groups.

Again, whether positive or negative many of the major train metro shopping areas in Tokyo just are not designed for people to sit for a long time. Yes, there are a lot of restaurants in the metro shopping areas but they too fill up very fast at 11:00 the starting time for lunch and to be fair they are not designed for people to sit there all day and cool off.

Yes, heatstroke at night is a major problem in Japan and especially for the aged or even those on fixed incomes or even those on low-incomes that can't afford to run their air conditioners all day and all night. 

At the same time, being in Yokohama off and on during many summers, many people would carry simple air coolers in their hand as a way to try and keep cool.

If not yet, some Japanese company, for the good of society, should develop a small and economical air conditioner that families can buy at a very cheap reasonable price to help the aged, the fixed income, and the low-income families that can't afford to run their home air conditioners all the time.

But maybe that's asking too much these days when everything revolves around profits, greed, and what shareholders want every quarter.

Yes, many years ago, when there were few air conditioners open windows and even doors and even homes were all designed to be much cooler than today. But today, with global warming, everything related to the heat and even sun exposure has significantly intensified and what worked decades ago doesn't seem to work these days and expect for many some EU countries, such as France, most people have become used to having air conditioners and now feel like they can't live without them.

Its logical to think that maybe some homes can go back to how they were designed decades ago but to people want to live that way again after they've become accustomed to having air conditioner in their homes, or can they afford to remodel their homes to be more energy efficient and reduce the heat buildup in their homes.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260702/p2a/00m/0na/022000c

Japan Average Wage Increase: Updated July 5, 2026.

Japan's average wages up over 5% for 3rd straight year amid rising prices

Ideas

Wage increases for the third consecutive is good for Japanese workers as maybe after three years of continuous wage increase they will begin to see their disposable incomes increase and maybe begin to spend again in the economy which is very much needed.

At the same time it must be remembered that is estimated that up to 70 percent of Japanese workers don't work for the large name-brand companies which means most probably didn't get the 5.01 percent average that large companies might have received.

Yes, an increase of 16,400 is very good and very much needed as it will go a long way to increasing the disposable incomes of Japanese households and they have been stressed out ever since the pandemic with continued inflation and they have for the most part not been able to really recover completely from the pandemic situation.

But again, it must be remembered that most companies in Japan are not the large name-brand companies but small and mid-size companies and especially the small companies have very thin profit margins and can't afford to increase wages by 5.01 percent. 

Yes, inflation continues to be a challenge in Japan as Japan is resource-poor country which means it has to import much of what it needs and is subject external events such as the Middle East situation and the global price increases that is affecting many countries now.

Again, the wage increases are good and very much needed to try and get Japanese households and consumers to maybe start spending again, but unfortunately the Middle East situation and the increase in prices seem to be a bump in the road that Japanese consumers will have to navigate again, as they have been doing a lot recently.

Yes, most likely many small firms did what they could and probably wish they could have done even more but again most small companies have very thin profits margins and just can't afford to match what the large companies can do as small companies just don't have the resources needed.

Again, it must be noted that Japan is in a supposed labor shortage which means for many workers they have a choice and can maybe leave the small company, unfortunately, which can't increase wages that much and a move to a much larger company which does have the resources needed to increase wages and even try to lure new talent to their companies.

Wage increases of 5.01 percent for large companies and 4.69 percent for small companies, overall it not that much of an differential and even 16,400 for large companies and 12,866 on average for small companies is not that much again of a differential. as 3,544 yen which might not seem like that much., but for some it might be.

So then other factors might come into play such such as benefits, overtime, required weekend work, work/life balance situations at the small or large companies can all play a part in whether a small company employees feel a loss of 3.544 is enough to try and change companies or do all the other variables have an affect on a someone going to larger company or staying at the small company.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260704/p2g/00m/0bu/008000c

Rice Sales in Japan. Update July 7, 2026.

Sales of rice from 2025 harvest to Japan wholesalers hit record low

Ideas

The Japanese rice market, ever since the summer of 2024 challenge, might have shifted the logistics of how rice gets to the final retail customer over the past two years.

It's quite possible rice farmers in Japan have been by-passing the normal  channels and now are using less known cooperatives as a way to make a little more profit from their rice harvests.

The shift or change might not be related to how wholesalers do business but maybe related to what supermarkets want and need now as consumers/customers are demanding a lower price for rice, the main staple in Japan.

Its quite possible conventional stockpiles and conventional wholesalers have kept the price or rice higher now for a little too long and supermarkets and consumers are looking for cheaper less expensive rice as imported rice, which is always a little cheaper.

Whether private-sector rice inventories or government controlled rice inventories consumers and supermarkets are looking for ways to reduce costs and are always looking for the least expensive product on the market, or maybe for supermarkets the most profitable products on the market.

It has been suggested that maybe ever since the summer of 2024 rice market challenge that the rice supply chains were experiencing some kind of a cartel situation where maybe the price of rice was being kept at a higher price as way to benefit a few in the market.

Retail rice prices might be declining but they are probably still too high for many consumers in Japan and especially the lower-income groups which have to spend more of their disposable income on food products than the upper-income groups who probably don't even notice the high prices for rice.

Wholesalers, like all businesses, have profit margins and they need to keep prices at a certain level as long as they can, and they probably are not going to reduce inventories just to discount rice which would not be in their favor and reduce their profit margins.

Rice in Japan is a major staple like milk, eggs, and bread in many other countries and if needed, the Japanese government, for the good of society, should maybe use price controls from time to time to ensure everyone in society has the ability to buy rice as needed.

Of course the challenge with price controls or limiting the increase in the price of rice doesn't benefit maybe the rice wholesalers, the supermarkets, and maybe the rice farmers too, so most likely there are just too many challenges for the Japanese economy to use price controls from time to time.

As always there seems to be competing interests in the rice market supply chain as there seems to be private-sector rice cooperatives and public government controlled rice cooperatives and maybe hundred if not thousands of small rice networks that are all competing in the market for what might be considered a limited amount of profit for everyone involved.

The challenge is, like many supply chains in Japan and in South Korea too, there are are just too many links and too many hoops to jump through before the rice reaches the supermarkets and the final retail customer, which increases the price of the rice at each stop before it reaches the final retail customer.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260701/p2g/00m/0bu/006000c

AI Demand and Big Companies in Japan. Ideas Later.

AI demand pushes Japan big manufacturers' business confidence to 8-yr high

Article to be deleted after ideas.

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Business confidence among major Japanese manufacturers in June improved to the highest level in eight years, as robust demand related to chips and artificial intelligence offset risks posed by the Middle East conflict, the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey showed Wednesday.

The sentiment index measuring confidence among companies such as those in the auto and electronics sectors rose to 22 from 17 in March for the fifth straight quarterly increase, beating the average market forecast of 16 in a Kyodo News tally.

But the index is projected to decline to 17 in September. The BOJ survey of 9,141 companies conducted between May 28 and Tuesday, received responses from around 70 percent of the firms by June 11, before the preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran to end their war.

It will "take time" for businesses to adjust their plans even though a deal has been reached, a BOJ official said at a briefing.

A wide range of industries remain concerned over the negative impact of the war, which sent crude oil prices sharply higher and disrupted energy supplies, the BOJ official said. The United States and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28.

Businesses in general-purpose, production, business-oriented and electrical machinery sectors as well as those in nonferrous metals, iron and steel, chemicals and textiles said they have seen strong orders for chip-making devices and related materials, the official said.

More companies are passing on increased material costs to retail prices to prevent profits from being squeezed, while some sectors benefited from orders that were brought forward to secure supplies, the official said.

Some companies voiced concerns that the Middle East situation may leave procurement disrupted, which could lead to further rises in materials costs and reduction in capital spending, he said.

Sentiment among chemical makers improved to 20 from 14, while confidence among manufacturers of production machinery rose by 10 points to 36. The petroleum and coal products sector saw a deterioration to 9 from 18 and motor vehicles also shed 1 point to 12.

The index for large nonmanufacturers, including the service sector, stood at 37, up from 36 in the previous survey in March, marking the first improvement in five quarters.

The accommodation, eating and drinking services sector benefitted from growth in inbound visitors, with sentiment rising to 46 from 34.

Construction and real estate sectors weakened due to a rise in material costs stemming from the Middle East situation, the official said.

All enterprises polled, also including medium-sized and small enterprises, raised their inflation outlooks by 0.1 percentage point for one, three and five years ahead, to 2.7, 2.6 and 2.6 percent, respectively, the data showed.

The Tankan index represents the percentage of companies reporting favorable conditions minus the percentage reporting unfavorable ones.

Article source:   https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260701/p2g/00m/0bu/016000c

Japan May Industrial Output: Updated July 4, 2026.

Japan industrial output in May rises 0.5% on month

Ideas

Japan is still a major industrial country even though its economy has transitioned, like most economies today into a services and technology economy.

As Japan is heavily focused on exports, its industrial base is still a major part of its economy and most likely will continue to play a major role in its economic growth.

Like many sectors in most economies, there are going to be ups and downs from month to month and even from quarter to quarter, but the key idea is always long term growth and not the ups and downs seen in some months or even quarter.

"Fluctuating indecisively is just the normal situation with most sectors and especially those days related to global trade and all of the negative situations that might affect exports.

A seasonally adjusted index score of 103.0 is still very good and shouldn't be seen as a negative if it decreased from 104 or even 105 recently. And even if was 102.0 before an increase to 103.0 is not that big of a change as these indexes are just a glimpse of what might really be happening and not the full story.

On a side note or other note, it should be noted, it has been suggested that most or many of the parts used by Boeing, to make their planes, comes from Japan as it seems Japan is a major producer of parts for most of the the Boeing aircraft used around the world.

When there is talk about the Middle East its always assumed, or seems to be, that only gas and oil come from the region, but there are many other products and commodities that are produced in that region and they too have been affected the situation and many countries are feeling the affects of the situation related to all of the commodities and products that have not been produced or shipped recently.

Again, not all sectors are going to be up at the same time and again not all are going to be down at the same time and the Japanese economy is very complicated and some parts are always going to be up and some are always going to be trending down.

Its important to look at the big picture and not the weekly, or monthly, or even quarterly index numbers but take a more long term look as see what is happening on a yearly basis.

As such next year, the Middle East situation might just feel like a bump in the road and nothing more and the Middle East situation calms down and the global economy gets back to some kind of normalcy.

As expected June should see an increase as it's just business as usual but in July there is the Obon or summer holiday period on Japan and most likely some or many companies might take holidays like they do in Europe and industrial production will decrease some for the month of July.

An index of industrial shipments in May at 101.6 is not bad as it's still above 100, but of course maybe investors would prefer it to be much higher and not that close to 100 the neutral area.

However inventories being at 95.4 might be a trend that needs to be watched but again it should be taken with a grain of salt as the yearly index is more important than the month or even the quarterly index reading.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260630/p2g/00m/0bu/009000c