Japan Economy: Ideas Later.

Japan economy may surpass 73-month postwar growth record in July

Article to be deleted after ideas.

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The Japanese government is likely to maintain its view that the economy is recovering moderately in its monthly assessment for July, a source close to the matter said Thursday, raising the possibility that the economy will surpass the postwar record of 73 consecutive months of expansion.

But even if it is later confirmed that the previous record expansion seen between February 2002 and February 2008 has been exceeded, the achievement will come as households continue to struggle with a rising cost of living.

The final determination of the length of the current economic expansion will be made retrospectively by a Cabinet Office panel of economists and other experts.

The economy has continued to expand since hitting bottom in May 2020 due to the novel coronavirus pandemic, with gross domestic product growth remaining in positive territory even when Japan was hit by the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the higher tariffs policy of the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Nevertheless, in the first economic and fiscal policy guidelines approved by the Cabinet of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Tuesday, the government acknowledged the need to make sure that "everyone across Japan can really feel that 'the economy is getting better.'"

In maintaining the economic assessment for July, the government said that personal consumption, which comprises around half of GDP, is solid, supported by recent wage hikes and the government's subsidies to tackle inflation, the source said.

Capital investment by businesses and industrial output have also been robust due to the spread of artificial intelligence, while exports are solid due to strong demand for autos in the United States, the source said.

When asked about the possibility of the Japanese economy surpassing the postwar growth record at a press conference in June, Minoru Kiuchi, Japan's minister for economic and fiscal policy, simply said that it would take "some time to gather the data needed for verification and have discussions about it."

A Cabinet Office source, meanwhile, said, "It is hard to be genuinely happy at a time when it is uncertain whether inflation-adjusted real wages will keep rising and the situation in the Middle East is still uncertain."

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260723/p2g/00m/0bu/018000c

BOJ Position: Ideas Later.

BOJ to stand pat on rates in July, may raise growth forecast

Article to be deleted after ideas.

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its key interest rate steady at its policy meeting in late July while likely revising upward its economic growth outlook for the current fiscal year on strong demand related to artificial intelligence, sources familiar with the matter said Friday.

Keeping the short-term policy rate at around 1.0 percent after raising it to a 31-year high at the previous meeting would allow the central bank more time to assess the impact of the latest rate hike, as well as rising crude oil prices, on businesses and households.

The BOJ raised the key rate in June for the first time since December, warning that elevated crude oil prices due to the Middle East conflict and the weak yen could heighten inflation risks.

The BOJ will continue to assess the economic situation ahead of the two-day policy meeting starting July 30.

Many view current financial conditions as accommodative, raising concerns that the economy could overheat and push prices higher, while the BOJ has maintained its stance of continuing to raise interest rates. Attention is shifting to when the next rate hike will come, with the central bank's next policy meeting after July scheduled for September.

Following the July meeting, the central bank will also release its quarterly economic outlook for fiscal 2026 through 2028. It has projected the Japanese economy to grow 0.5 percent in the current fiscal year, which began in April.

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260717/p2g/00m/0bu/040000c

Japan and Foreign Visitors: Updated July 16, 2026.

Foreign visitors to Japan dip 2% in 1st-half 2026 as Chinese travelers drop

Ideas

A 2.0 percent decrease from a year earlier should not be that much of a concern considering some in Japan now think there are too many foreign tourists entering Japan. And the idea there was a decrease in Chinese tourists should make some happy as again, there have been complaints lately of too many tourists and over-tourism has become a real challenge in Japan now.

It's interesting, as maybe not all Chinese tourists are following exactly what the government wants or says as sometimes a suggestion can be like an order in China, but if there were 2.06 million tourists from China that indicates maybe they can make their own choices without government interference.

It's also interesting that as early as 2019 or around there, South Korea had a supposed boycott on Japanese products and even traveling to Japan was limited as South Korean tourists and travelers avoided going to Japan but those days seem long gone as other articles have suggested that South Korean tourists are the number one group entering Japan or close to it.

Taiwan, compared to China and South Korea has always had a friendly relationship with Japan and they haven't had any of the post-war entanglements that the other two countries have had and as a result tourists from Taiwan has remained consistent while both China and South Korea have had periods of less than normal relations, kind of like squabbling siblings going back and forth over the years.

It seem, unfortunately, whether deserved or not or whether deliberate or not, Japan keeps saying things that seem to upset China and has at times also upset South Korea from time to time but these days South Korea and Japan seem to be going out of their way to make sure all things are normal as maybe they are looking at China as the main instigator in the Asia-Pacific region and both countries seem to be working together now on diplomatic and security issues.

But as mentioned above there were 2.06 million visitors from China that visited Japan, so there are still quite a few who want to go to Japan and spend their money.

It's quite possible that a decrease of 6.8 percent from a year earlier might be just enough to satisfy those in Japan who think and feel that over-tourism has overtaken Japan and some might want to see even less tourists.

The problem is the Japanese domestic economy is now heavily dependent on foreign tourism for spending as overall, consumer spending in the domestic economy is now where it should be due to the continued inflation situation.

As the Japanese yen is very weak now, which gives foreign tourists more purchasing power Japanese businesses should welcome foreign tourists with open arms as they spend a lot when they are in Japan despite, unfortunately, there are always going to be some who have poor manners in Japan like some tourists in all countries these days.

Have a nice day!

Article source:    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260715/p2g/00m/0li/056000c

Japan Overseas Travel Situation: Updated July 16, 2026.

Japan's summer outbound travel to fall 9% on weak yen, 1st post-COVID drop

Ideas.

There are probably more than one reason why travel out of Japan is going to decrease during the summer holiday period than just the weak yen. The weak yen has been around for a very long time and Japanese households and consumers have had a lot of reasons not to travel, if they don't want to besides weak yen

The overall inflation situation has not been that good so the disposable income or money needed to save for an overseas trip has been eroding almost since the pandemic period and then add in all the global situations going on and it might deter some from traveling overseas.

And then there was the football/soccer world cup in the US and some or many Japanese might have traveled to Mexico and the US to see the Japanese national football play and some might have gone to Nashville TN to see them workout before the competition began.

Yes, the Obon holiday period this year might see less people traveling as maybe travel for this has peaked already with the Golden Week period and then the World Cup competition period about to end in a few days and people are exhausted not to mention the record high temperatures that are already hitting Japan, which might keep people inside or at least from traveling this summer.

And then there is the continued high cost of airline tickets and the Middle East situation and the so-called shortage of oil and gas is increasing airline tickets and unfortunately the summer holiday travel period is usually the most expensive time to travel.

It might be no surprise that travel could decrease more than 9 percent as it could get as high as over 12 percent the summer holiday period as people for the most part, are just exhausted and again add in the record high temperatures in Japan along with the continued inflation situation and the eroding of disposable incomes, and then of course the weak yen means even less purchasing power for Japanese consumers overseas.

Yes, shorter trips to South Korea and Taiwan are probably the most logical trips to take and both regions seem to be having a record number of tourists.

But, as some news outlets have recently reported hotel rooms in South Korea are all filled up and they just have enough room for all of the foreign travelers wanting to travel there.

And of course, unfortunately, the China situation is very sad and always the on again and off again situation with China just keeps making the news which means of course Japanese travelers are going to be very weary about traveling to Japan this summer.

Again, it very possible the projected record heat this summer, which some have suggested it already here, might deter traveling even more and a drop of 4.4 percent might be more than 7 or 8 percent this summer, but it still very possible domestic travelers are going to seek out cooler places to travel if the can go there and that's the key can they afford to go to the cooler regions of Japan this summer.

Of course the Tokyo region including Yokohama just south of Tokyo to might see an increase of domestic travelers but as some news has suggested there might not be enough hotel rooms this summer and foreign tourists too might be headed to the Tokyo area if not the Kyoto/Osaka area.

Yes, overall, in most countries there are polarization's related to traveling as some want to keep within a budget and take shorter trips and some want to splurge on expensive trips that they've been planning for a long time.

But most likely Japanese travelers, for the most part, are in the budget category as they are still mostly savers and not big spenders as maybe the big spender travelers are the wealthy and upper-income group in Japan who will splurge on a long holiday trip to Hawaii or even to Europe.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260712/p2g/00m/0bu/005000c

Japan June Wholesale Prices: Updated July 13, 2026.

Japan wholesale prices up 7.1% in June, fastest rise in over 3 years

Ideas

Up recently many Japanese companies were reluctant to increase prices as they felt customers were very important to their business and they felt an connection to customers and society to keep prices down somewhat.

But those days seems long gone, as profits margins become very think and companies can no longer absorb their costs and now they have no choice but to pass-on their costs to the next I the supply chain.

And yes, the Middle East situation is affecting numerous industries globally and for the most part, it looks like the effects will continue on for a long time.

It's easy to say companies should have always have had alternative sources but finding the needed or exact alternative sources at the right price can be a challenge for many companies who have limited resources and limited profit margins.

However, companies, for the most part, especially as Japan is a resource-poor country, should always try to have alternative sources these days as the global environment is just too volatile and is always changing and sometimes not in the favor of some industries or companies.

Yes, not just products directly related to crude oil but now consumer goods that might be made indirectly from oil type materials are now seeing prices increases as companies can no longer absorb the increase in raw material or finished material prices and have no choice but to pass-on their costs to the next in the supply chain including the final retail customer.

Unfortunately, these days, even some companies that might have products that have no direct link to the Middle East situation might use it or rationalize it that their products are being affected indirectly and also will increase the prices on their products, as a way to squeeze out more profits.

Of course packaging products are significantly being affected by the situation in the Middle East and to change packaging, which is a form or advertising, might be very difficult and it takes a lot of time to change to simple packaging or alternative forms or packaging.

The challenge might be customers who identify products with colorful packaging might not be able to find the products they want or need if they can't see the same packaging which maybe for the elderly or fixed income customers could be difficult for them.

Global prices, ever since the pandemic seem to be increasing monthly or even at least yearly as companies, now days, just seem to continue to increase prices to keep their shareholders happy with no regard for customers as it seems customers are now not important as companies only care about what their shareholders want or need.

The Bank of Japan, at least on the surface, does seem to care about society and the overall affect that increasing the key rate will have and are trying to keep the rate as low as possible so that the key rate side affects don't have that much of an affect on Japanese society and the economy.

Again, many companies in Japan, back in the day, used to be very reluctant to increase prices as customers, along with employees were considered important stakeholders for the company and increasing prices was sometimes seems as being disloyal to customers, but those days seem long gone as profit margins continue to decrease and companies are putting a lot of emphasis on keeping shareholders happy and not company employees and especially customers who no longer the most important component of their business.

Japan is resource-poor country which means it has to import much of what it needs and is subject always to global price fluctuations and the weak Japanese yen, which helps Japanese export companies hurts import prices and the overall Japanese domestic economy.

But its interesting that the Bank of Japan is very aware of this situation and seems, at this time, to be favoring Japanese export companies as exporters can get more yen or dollars for their products in overseas market, which significantly increase Japan's current account.

At the same time, as the Japanese yen, remains very weak and foreign tourist numbers keep increasing in Japan the BOJ is thinking that foreign tourists and the weak yen, which increase the purchasing power of foreign tourists, will be a significant boost to the Japanese economy and the BOJ doesn't really need to do anything about the weak yen at this time.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260710/p2g/00m/0bu/022000c

Japan May Current Account: Updated July 15, 2026.

Japan logs 3.97 tril. yen current account surplus in May on firm exports

Ideas

It seems as maybe Japan has finally overcome the US tariff situation with exporting more cars to the US again and finding its footing in the competitive semiconductor global market race, which in affect which seems to have diversified in export portfolio, which Japan needs to do to make sure its export portfolio doesn't just rely on cars and car parts.

At the same time, Japan needs to continue to increase it export portfolio as the global market can be very volatile at times and specific markets or regions are always up or down depending on the situations.

Yes, it seems Japan always seems to do something that makes China unhappy and whether they do it on purpose or not, it always seems to be there, even though maybe business people in both countries don't like it.

Unfortunately, Chinese tourists who used to visit Japan in large number have seemed to have decreased as some or many follow what the government asks or says and go to other countries for visits now such as Thailand, or South Korea, or Vietnam instead of Japan.

It must be noted that the weak Japanese yen seems to be driving most of the surplus as even Japanese overseas investments can see huge increases as the weak yen is favorable to exporters and those who invest in overseas markets too.

As such, its seems most likely the Bank of Japan has noticed this situation and, even though the weak Japanese yen is not the best option for the Japanese domestic economy, there are just too many positives and as such the BOJ is not going to disrupt the flow of money coming into the current account with a huge key interest rate increase in the future.

Yes both primary income and the overall goods trade benefit significantly from a weak yen and again, most likely, the BOJ is not going to do anything really significant to disrupt the flow in the current account.

However, as inflation continues on in Japan, the BOJ might increase the key rate slightly as a way to try and slow down inflation but not a huge increase in the rate that might have an affect on the weak Japanese yen which could cause the current account to decrease.

Japan is still a major export nation as its economy after the second world war was rebuilt based on exporting Japanese products globally.

Japan, it seems, has become a major player related to chip-related electronics and artificial intelligence technology maybe only being surpassed by Taiwan and South Korea.

And of course Japan is a resource-poor country and has to import much of what it needs and its subject to all of the situations globally which of course increases prices to the detriment of the Japanese domestic economy.

Even at 313,000 tourists from China is still a significant number of tourists and are still spending a lot of money and yen in Japan so its not a complete waste or crisis about that the current Japanese Prime Minister said even though it probably should never have happened.

Unfortunately, Japan is not very good at software that is used by other countries because to the US and as such no one really wants Japanese made software, if they make it in the first place, and as such as there are of course more foreign tourists entering Japan, spending a lot of many but less Japanese going overseas mainly due to the weak Japanese yen, which decreases the purchasing power or Japanese consumers overseas.

As suggested in other articles, Japanese are not going to travel overseas that much due to budget limitations, the weak yen, and of course maybe the increase in fuel costs by airlines and increased airline ticket prices.

And yes, there might have been a slight decrease in inbound or foreign tourists into Japan but Japan is still experiencing record tourism numbers and it might continue this summer.

And its been suggested, as a side note, that Japanese hotels and motels while almost at full capacity are experiencing a labor shortage as they can't find enough workers to work at the hotels and that might be related to the idea that hotels are a services sector industry which has very thin profit margins and can't afford to pay higher wages that many companies are now paying to get the best workers in Japan.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260708/p2g/00m/0bu/018000c

Japan Jan.-June Bankruptcies: Updated July 10, 2026.

Japan bankruptcies in Jan.-June top 5,000 for 1st time in 12 years

Ideas

It's unfortunate that there are so many bankruptcies in Japan now as inflation, and the labor shortage has forced many companies,, especially small companies, to leave the market.

You probably will not find many of the large name-brand companies filing for bankruptcy as they, for the most part always have a lot of resources, not to mention connections, to fall back  on.

Inflation along with the weak Japanese yen has increased import prices and as Japan is a resource-poor country has to depend a lot on imports which means prices for foreign raw materials are going to put a lot of pressure on many small and mid-sized companies which usually have very thin profit margins and really can't afford the higher import prices.

While there are positives and negatives for a government to intervene in a market economy, in this situation it might the right thing to do for the Japanese government to find ways to help these struggling companies as companies are made up of people and families and the pain for many of them might be too unbearable to handle.

Firms with fewer than 10 employees means, for the most part, means they have less resources and probably less connections in the market which means they probably have fewer choices to help them out of their current situation, as unfortunately, it can be a very sad and terrible situation for the 10 or few employees for those companies.

And yes, due to their thin profits margins, and the current labor shortage in Japan, many small companies just can't afford to match the wage increases of larger firms or even medium sized firms which means most likely many of the smaller firms lost employees and were unable to find replacements as they just couldn't afford again to pay the wages needed by many who were looking or needed a job.

The services sector traditionally has very thin profits margins and the reason the mostly hire part-time workers or contract workers and fewer full-time workers as their profits margins just can't handle a large number of regular full-time workers.

And restaurants and food retailers, being service companies, are perfect examples of companies that higher a lot of part-time workers or contract workers and also they just can't pass-on their increased costs to the final retail customer as customers will try to find other places to buy food.

And even more importantly, as inflation continues on in Japan, many consumers are cutting back and not eating out as much and maybe even limiting buy from delivery companies as the prices of food delivery as sky-rocketed in Japan recently.

Yes, almost every region in Japan has seen an increase in bankruptcies as no area is immune from the increase in prices or even the labor shortage affecting all regions.

Once again, it should seem like a good idea, for the good of society, for the Japanese government to try and intervene in some of these bankruptcies without causing too much harm to overall market dynamics. 

But, unfortunately companies entering a market and leaving a market are, some would say, just the normal workings of a market and governments, for the most part, should not interfere too much in it and let the market decide naturally who should be in the market and who should exit the market.

The only problem with that idea, even though its economically sound, is companies, especially small companies, are make up of families and people and bankruptcies can takes a significant toll on families and even communities.

Yes, even small mom and pop companies and companies which might only be a husband and wife, these days, can still feel the affects of what's going on in the global economy and no one in any country or region is immune as the global economy is so inter-connected that everyone can feel the affects of all situations globally.

Unfortunately, as inflation continues in Japan as profit margins are stretched to their limits, and as the supposed labor shortage continues on in Japan, and if the Japanese government can't find ways to be more like the Northern Europeans countries with their significant social networks that help society, Japan might continue to have more bankruptcies is the fuure.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260708/p2g/00m/0bu/026000c