IMF upgrades 2026 global growth outlook as AI boom in Asia continues
Ideas
Yes, there are many factors reshaping the gobal economy today and no one really knows where its headed, good or not so good, as everything seems to be moving so fast no one has a chance to really see what is happening.
The IMF global growth forecast is just a guess or an estimate as there are just too many variables involved that could easily change what is really going to happen in the future.
Yes, many industries or sectors, not involed in the semiconductor sector will see positive spill over effects and could see equal growth over time but not immediately as it takes time for the effect to reach other sectors.
And the supply chains and those directly and even indirectly involved will see some spillover effects but at what level remains to be seen at this time.
Of course many countries in Asia are directly and indirectly involved with AI and it's going to benefit many Asian countries not just South Korea and Taiwan.
Again, its too early to try and estimate what is going to happen overall as a lot could happen over the next three or four months and many things could improve or unravel during that time.
Of course, unfortunately, the Middle East situation could get worse and even if it were to change soon its going to take months before global supply chains are back to some kind of normallcy like it actually took years before global supply chains got back to functioning normally after the pandemic.
Yes, inflation globally, is increasing and there doesn't seem to be any sign of it decreasing anytime soon and consumers globally are not going to be too happy about it.
The US seems to be doing a little OK related to economic growth but it could be headed for a period of stagflation as while some metrics look Ok but many metrics are trending in the wrong direction.
Yes, Germany, once a major manufacturing economy, has been struggling but might be moving past its current struggles and headed to better economic times.
If there euro area were to grow 1.1 percent that would be a major change for the EU but again its too early to say either way as again there are just too many variables that could disrupt economic growth.
And yes, the US economy might expand by 2.3 percent but that is not the real story as there the problem of affordability for many in the US and yes, consumer spending might be up as the US is huge consumer market and it doesn't really show what is going on in the US as prices are, as some might think, are out of control now.
The problem is, it seems AI investments are controlled by a few large AI related companies and is skewing everything for the rest in the US.
China's growth is following the standard growth pattern of developing countries to near advanced country status as growth doesn't remain in the 5 or 6 percent range as it will continue to decrease as it takes more resources to grow an economy which advanced economies just don't have.
And Japan is a perfect example of an advanced country that just doesn't grow that much and a growth estimate of of 0.7 percent would be considered good for an economy that has just recently come out of a stagnation period.
Of course the Japanese government always uses a lot of fiscal support measures to keep the economy moving forward and at the same time lessoning the burden on Japanese households related to the high cost of energy prices which of course were somewhat caused by the Middle East situation.
Have a nice day!
Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20261013/p2g/00m/0bu/038000c