Japan March inflation. Ideas Later.

Japan March inflation rate rises to 1.8% on fuel cost hike amid Iran war

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TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's core consumer prices in March rose 1.8 percent from a year earlier on higher energy costs due to surges in crude oil prices amid the Middle East conflict, government data showed Friday.

The rise in the nationwide consumer price index, excluding volatile fresh food, followed a 1.6 percent increase in February, when it climbed by less than 2 percent for the first time in nearly four years, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

Core-core CPI, which strips away both energy and fresh food to reflect underlying price trends, rose 2.4 percent in March, decelerating from 2.5 percent in February.

For the fiscal year that ended March, core CPI increased 2.7 percent from a year earlier, largely reflecting surges in rice prices, which rose by a record-high 48.9 percent in the reporting year. But it stayed flat from fiscal 2024.

The end of the provisional gasoline tax on Dec. 31 led to a slowdown in rises in consumer prices in January and February but fresh inflationary pressure remains due to higher crude oil prices. The tax was abolished to ease the burden on households grappling with inflation.

For March, energy costs fell 5.7 percent after a drop of 9.1 percent in February, with gasoline falling 5.4 percent from the year before against a 14.9 percent drop the previous month.

Rising fuel costs could continue to be partially offset while a government subsidy program remains in place.

The government has decided to offer aid to wholesalers to keep the average retail price of gasoline to around 170 yen per liter. Before the financial support, the price hit an all-time high of 190.80 yen per liter on March 16. Japan depends on the Middle East for over 95 percent of its oil imports.

But a wide range of other products could see hikes in prices as manufacturers rush to find alternative sources after supplies of petroleum products were disrupted due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran launched on Feb. 28, analysts said.

Petroleum products, specifically naphtha, are used to produce chemicals widely used in manufacturing products including plastics and critical medical supplies.

The weaker yen against the U.S. dollar, which has attracted buying as a safe-haven currency, is also feared to push up import costs, the analysts said.

Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute, said it is highly likely that core inflation will remain elevated due to the protracted closure of the strait and rises in crude oil prices.

"Going forward, there is a possibility that the impact will spread widely, including price increases for petroleum-derived products such as plastics, rising food production costs due to difficulty in procuring fertilizers, and increasing logistics costs," he said.

Friday's data will be among materials to be studied at the Bank of Japan's two-day policy meeting starting Monday, when the Policy Board will decide if hiking the policy rate from the current 0.75 percent is necessary to sustainably achieve the 2 percent inflation target.

Without clear signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda about the need to hike rates amid the persistent uncertainties over the situation in the Middle East, market analysts expect that the bank will keep its monetary policy steady for now.

But Ueda has also signaled readiness to keep increasing the rate if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts.

While the core inflation rate came below the 2 percent target for the second month in a row in March, the bank's new price index released late March to grasp underlying trends showed inflation rose 2.2 percent in February from the previous year.

The new indicator excludes the effects of policies such as free education programs, measures to ease the burden of fuel and utility costs as well as volatile fresh foods. The release of the index is widely viewed by markets as a precursor to a further interest rate hike.

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260424/p2g/00m/0bu/010000c

Japan and Labor Productivity: Ideas later.

Japan aims to up labor productivity by 15% in 5 yrs to push growth

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TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan said Wednesday it aims to boost its labor productivity by 15 percent over five years by encouraging reskilling and pushing digitalization in the workforce, viewing the development of highly skilled talent as essential for growth.

The government under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi outlined the target at a meeting of the Council for Japan's Growth Strategy, which discussed labor reforms as among steps to realize her expansive expenditure plans in 17 strategic fields, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors and the defense industry.

Japan's labor productivity level remains the lowest among the Group of Seven advanced economies due to a growing share of nonregular employees and slow labor-saving investment. Higher productivity would also lead to wage increases, attracting talent, the government said.

"We will pursue economic growth relentlessly to strengthen our nation," Takaichi said at the end of the meeting, which was open to the media, adding that the government will "propose and carry out truly necessary policies without hesitation."

Measured by the value of goods and services produced per worker per hour, Japan ranked 28th in labor productivity among the 38 OECD members in 2024, partly reflecting the weaker yen, which has raised costs for energy and raw material imports, according to the Japan Productivity Center.

At the meeting, the Cabinet Office also presented its view that the acute shortage of labor needs to be addressed by further encouraging the participation of women and elderly in the workforce.

The government said it aims to raise the share of companies allowing employees to work until age 70 from 34.8 percent in 2025 to 40 percent in 2029, in line with a law requiring firms to make efforts toward that goal.

Its targets also include raising the share of female workers who continue to work at the same company before and after giving birth to their first child to 80 percent in 2030 from 69.5 percent in 2021, by taking steps to help lessen their household burdens.

To help parents cope with dual demands of working and family care, the government said it will create a government license that certifies a person is qualified to offer household support services.

The inaugural examination to obtain the certification is eyed for around fall 2027, it said.

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260422/p2g/00m/0na/035000c

Japan Households Savings and Golden Week. Ideas later.

Japan household savings hit record high, but 'zero yen' tops Golden Week budget plans

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TOKYO -- Despite household savings reaching a record high in Japan, the most common budget plan for this year's long Golden Week holiday period is "zero yen," highlighting a growing preference for savings amid concerns that rising crude oil prices driven by heightened tensions in the Middle East will keep inflation high.

According to a survey released on April 16 by Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co., nearly half of respondents plan to spend the holiday period at home.

Asked how much they plan to spend during Golden Week, 29.3% chose "zero yen," the largest share, followed by 17.8% who plan to spend "10,000 yen (around $63) or more but less than 20,000 yen (around $126)" and 12.8% who said "50,000 yen (around $314) or more but less than 100,000 yen (around $630)." While 21.7% said they would spend less than last year, only 4.3% said they would spend more.

At the same time, polarization in spending has become more pronounced. Among those who plan to spend more, the average increase was 79,514 yen (around $500), about 20,000 yen higher than last year.

As for how they plan to spend their holidays, "staying at home" was the most common answer at 46.7%, followed by "undecided" at 22.5% and "domestic travel" at 14.4%. Average household savings rose by 2.84 million yen (around $17,860) from a year earlier to 18.47 million yen (around $116,120), marking a record high for the second consecutive year since the survey began in 2017.

The survey, which asked about household finances, was conducted online from March 9 to 16 among 1,620 men and women ages 20 to 79 nationwide.

Takafumi Fujita, chief researcher at the Meiji Yasuda Research Institute Inc., said, "People are directing increased income toward savings to protect their own livelihoods, and there seems to be limited room to channel it into consumption." He also voiced concerns that surging crude oil prices could further drive inflation, adding, "Stable global conditions are essential for sustainable growth in consumption."

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260421/p2a/00m/0bu/022000c

Japan Trade Deficit: Ideas later.

Japan logs trade deficit in FY 2025 for 5th yr in row, hit by US tariffs

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TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan logged a trade deficit of 1.71 trillion yen ($10.7 billion) in the year through March, remaining in the red for the fifth straight year, as higher U.S. tariffs implemented since April 2025 dragged down auto exports, government data showed Wednesday.

The country's trade deficit has been declining since a massive 22.09 trillion yen of red ink in fiscal 2022 amid the coronavirus pandemic, but it could widen this business year due to the Middle East conflict, which will drive up imports by value amid elevated crude oil prices, economists say.

In fiscal 2025, the trade deficit shrank 68.4 percent from the year before, the Finance Ministry said in a preliminary report.

Exports rose 4.0 percent to 113.24 trillion yen on the back of demand for semiconductors and other electronic devices, while imports edged up 0.5 percent to 114.96 trillion yen from a year earlier amid rising prices for platinum and other nonferrous metals, it said.

The trade deficit with the United States fell 22.1 percent to 7 trillion yen, the biggest drop since fiscal 2008, as exports declined 6.6 percent for the first decrease in five years, while imports rose 4.3 percent.

Motor vehicles, including buses and trucks, were the largest item contributing to the decline in U.S.-bound shipments, with cars falling 16.0 percent from a year earlier.

While U.S. import duties on Japanese cars were lowered in September to 15 percent, from 27.5 percent imposed in April 2025, under a trade deal struck by Tokyo and Washington, they remained six times higher than the 2.5 percent tariff in place prior to U.S. President Donald Trump's return to the White House.

"While sales of Japanese hybrid cars are robust in the United States" due to their fuel-efficiency and affordable prices, exports fell in fiscal 2025 after a sharp rise the previous year on increased demand before the implementation of the U.S. tariffs, a ministry official said.

For March, Japan recorded a trade surplus of 667 billion yen, up 25.9 percent from the previous year. Crude oil imports rose 2.4 percent for the third straight month by volume.

As for the impact on oil imports of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, the official noted that the data reflected fuel shipped from the Middle East before the launch of the attacks on Feb. 28, adding the government had pushed to secure supplies from other regions such as the United States.

Still, some impact from the conflict was seen in the reported month, with exports to the Middle East falling 45.9 percent to 225.71 billion yen and imports dropping 10.7 percent to 878.81 billion yen.

Japan's imports of petroleum spirits, derived from oil distillation and used as solvents and fuel, also fell 25.3 percent, likely due to the Middle East war and traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the official said.

Koya Miyamae, senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc., said the protracted effective closure of the strait will dampen imports of crude oil from the Middle East and other related products from Asia, while Japanese companies' shipments, including autos, to the region are also likely to fall significantly.

Miyamae estimated that if crude oil prices move around $100 per barrel, the fiscal 2026 deficit is likely to expand to 10 trillion yen, with the possibility it could balloon to 15 trillion yen.

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260422/p2g/00m/0bu/019000c

Bank of Japan Possibilities: Ideas later.

Bank of Japan likely to maintain policy rate, lift growth forecasts

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TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady for a third straight meeting at its two-day policy meeting next week, sources familiar with the matter said Monday, as it assesses the impact of inflationary pressures amid stubbornly high crude oil prices.

The benchmark rate is likely to be left unchanged at 0.75 percent, with the Policy Board also expected to announce at the end of the meeting on April 28 an upward revision to its economic and inflation forecasts for fiscal 2026, the sources said.

The central bank has been considering raising rates as it views the current level as significantly low after accounting for inflation. It may, however, wait until late in the meeting to decide amid uncertainty over U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks.

"It is extremely difficult to determine how to respond to (escalating tensions in the Middle East) with monetary policy," BOJ chief Kazuo Ueda said at a press conference in Washington last week.

"We will assess the risks to determine policy," he added.

The BOJ is expected to maintain its push to raise interest rates on the back of sharp pay hikes seen in this year's "shunto" wage talks, but is believed to have weighed the risk of stagflation -- a state of high inflation, high unemployment and sluggish economic growth -- as crude oil prices surge due to the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.

The bank, which lifted its benchmark rate to 0.75 percent in December, will announce its outlook report, which includes its real gross domestic product outlook for fiscal 2026 through 2028.

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260421/p2g/00m/0bu/002000c

Japan Feb. machinery orders: Updated April 21, 2026.

Japan's Feb. machinery orders jump 13.6% on month

Ideas

Japan's core private-sector machinery orders might not sound like an important sector to be concerned about but it shows just how much the Japanese economy is moving forward and or just standing still.

Tracking machinery orders in the private sector just shows how much companies feel about the economy by spending on capital investments compared to not spending which doesn't help the economy grow.

Yes, its quite possible that corporate sentiment, similar to consumer sentiment, might actually be increasing as companies might see and feel the future is getting better and not worse.

But we've seen this before as we see a quarter or two of good corporate spending and then after that its back to being a little more stagnant, the usual pattern in the Japanese economy.

But it's a little too early to celebrate, as again, spending in the Japanese economy is both up and down and never that consistent over a long time period.

Not to be too pessimistic but sometimes data is intentionally omitted, a little, to make sure the financial markets are not completely upset with the results.

The Stock market and the financial markets tend to react to every economic or financial type  of news whether domestic or global or both.

As a result the powers to be that edit and examine the data each month or each quarter will sometimes, as needed, will amend the results as the have new data for the situation.

Again, the Japanese economy is very complex economy like all other economies and all sectors don't increase or decrease at the same time, depending on supply and demand, depending on supply chain situations, and a host of other situations sometimes that the companies in specific sectors can't control.

And even public sectors are prone to ups and downs as sometimes they increase due to political actions and sometimes the decrease due to political actions too.

Have a nice day!

Article source:   https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260415/p2g/00m/0bu/025000c

Japan Real Wages in Feb. Updated April 9, 2026.

Japan's real wages rise for 2nd straight month in February with 1.9% growth

Ideas

Real wages in Japan seem to finally see some daylight after months or years being less that inflation and an increase of 1.9 percent, while not much, is a welcome increase for many Japanese households.

Japan has been hit by constant price increases as Japan is a resource-poor country and needs to import much of what it needs and is subject to the whims of global price increases. 

Wage increases, while good but not great, have also helped but companies need to do more its been suggested that many of the name-brand companies are sitting piles of cash which could be used to help with the daily lives of their employees in Japan.

Nominal wages really don't mean much as they give a false sense of an increase but in reality real wages, disposable income, and the purchasing power of Japanese consumers is what really matters in the economy and the daily lives of ordinary Japanese citizens.

If you ask the average Japanese consumer what are nominal wages and of course they probably won't know or even care as global consumers would probably say the same thing, as what really matters is the amount of disposable income they have and the purchasing they have each week and each month.

Yes, despite all of the news about nominal wages, real wages, inflation increases or decreases is good and needed by some in business and government but most consumers could care less about all the stats thrown around in the media, as what they care about is their purchasing power and again how much disposable income they have left on Friday or Saturday or at the end of the month.

While a 1.4 percent increase in consumers prices is maybe beginning to show a decreasing trend, it might still be too high for the most vulnerable in Japanese society as maybe it is still affecting the lower-income groups, the fixed income groups, and of course the single mother who has to take care of her two children and only a contract salary or wage with no real benefits.

Japan is not an isolated island country or economy as, like all countries these days, it is highly interconnected to the rest of the world and what happens in the Middle East easily affects Japan just like the situation in the Ukraine has significantly affected raw material supplies and prices from that region.

Yes, private consumption or consumer spending is estimated to be about half of Japan's gross domestic product, but in reality it might be a little less in actual spending as in recent years consumer spending in Japan just hasn't been enough to significantly help the Japanese economy grow that much as maybe it should be around 55 or even 60 percent of GDP to see any sustainable real growth each year.

The Bank of Japan or BOJ is watching very carefully what is happening in Japan and the Middle East with of course energy and oil prices as Japan has to import much if not all of its energy needs which could be factor in the BOJ's decision to increase rates or keep them where they are now.

And yes, again, the BOJ is watching the wage talk increases as it appears some or many companies have actually met the demand of their labor unions, but as usual, while the large-name brand companies are doing their part, it remains to be seen just what the small and mid-size companies are doing or what can they really do.

It is estimated that up to 70 percent of the Japanese work-force works for small and mid-size companies and not the large name-brand companies that get all the news.

Most if not all small and mid-size companies just don't have the needed resources to match what the large companies can do and such the wage increases by the smaller companies are never going to be as much as a large company wage increases.

While any wage increase is good and needed, what is really important is what does the average Japanese worker feel about their wage increase? Japanese households, Japanese consumers have to got feel good about the wage increases and they have to be able to see it in their disposable income and their purchasing power at the end of the month, and if they don't see it or feel it they are not going to spend enough to increase or help economic growth in the economy.

And of course again, using the phrase the "the least among us" what does it do for the dis-advantaged in Japanese society? Do the wage increases reach the lower-income groups, the fixed income groups, and again do the wage increases help the single mother on a limited contract able to take care of her two children with no real health or medical benefits.

Have a nice day!

© 2026 Tom Metts,  all rights reserved

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260408/p2g/00m/0bu/022000c