OECD Economic Growth: Updated Sept. 29, 2025

OECD lifts 2025 growth outlook on front-loaded output before tariffs

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250924/p2g/00m/0bu/003000c

Ideas

Yes many countries are going to increase production and or trade before US tariffs come into full effect as way to beat the tariff situation the best they can.

Maybe, as its known now, international trade is not going to be the same, at least for the time being, and or a more liberal leaning president in the US, who understands international trade a little better comes into power.

It sounds good but an estimate of 1.1 percent in 2025, might be a little too optimistic as the Japanese economy usually doesn't even grow that much, but it might happen if the data is correct.

Firm investment is actually part of Japan's GDP so it might be possible that companies have decided to invest as they might feel the Japanese economy is going to grow in the future, despite the tariff situation.

Japan, like most advanced economies now, place a lot of emphasis on corporate earnings as Japan has become more of a western style market economy with stockholder value at the core of many large name-brand companies these days.

The growth of China has been a little less than usual as 4.9 percent is not where it usually is but that's normal for a growing economy as the more it grows, overtime, it begins to grow less and less, and a country needs more resources to continue to grow.

And as usual, like many countries or economies, fiscal spending is used to help the economy grow at times.

Yes, front-loading will not last that long and when the tariff situation actually goes into effect many countries might begin to see investments and trade begin to decrease.

Of course not all trade and investments will disappear but over time there could be a substantial decrease from quarter to quarter or even year to year, which potentially could see many counties' GDP's decrease.

Recently it seemed in the US big tech was spurring the US economy but due to the tariff situation that might change as even big tech in the US is going to be effected by the tariffs.

And US immigration is going to be effected with unfortunately high-skilled labor needed by high tech companies are going to see a significant decrease in workers form countries such as India and China. where many of the high tech workers come from.

The US, overall, just doesn't produce enough high tech workers to meet the needs of US high tech companies, and has been noted, innovation, potentially, is going to suffer in the US.

Yes, despite all of its challenges, the US economy is still the envy of the world. Yes, China is big and somewhat growing but it still can't match the US economy.

Even at 1.5 percent growth for a so-called mature economy its still a growing economy as it hasn't settled into a real mature economy yet for example Japan has or many European countries have, with little or no growth.

Have a nice day!