Japan April Exports:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210520/p2g/00m/0bu/048000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's exports in April rose 38.0 percent from a year ago, the largest increase in over a decade, as they continued to recover from a coronavirus pandemic-triggered slump thanks to strong demand in China and the United States, government data showed Thursday.

Exports of goods in the reporting month soared to 7.18 trillion yen ($66 billion), posting the fastest pace of increase since a 40.4 percent jump in April 2010 when the world economy was rebounding from the global financial crisis, according to the preliminary data released by the Finance Ministry.

Exports expanded for the second straight month following a 16.1 percent leap in March.

Ideas:

A 38.0 percent increase from a year ago might sound good, but it needs to be remembered just how much exports decreased in the spring of 2020.

Strong demand in China and the US is not as surprise as consumer demand in both countries is increasing.

But any increase is good for the Japanese economy and the manufacturing companies as they are able to get back to some kind of normalcy or even a new normal.

The key can they sustain the momentum they have now with the virus variants beginning to enter many countries.

And can car manufacturers meet demand with a chip shortage throughout the supply chain.

Article:

The scale of the expansion is partly a reflection of a 21.9 percent plunge in the exports from the world's third-largest economy in April last year, when the pandemic was hampering business activities worldwide and denting global demand for Japan-made items such as cars.

Still, the latest exports figure was larger than the pre-pandemic figure of 6.66 trillion yen logged in April 2019.

Shipments of car and auto parts to the United States and semiconductor producing equipment to China increased remarkably in the reporting month.

Ideas:

Exports look for Japan in the future as long as the pandemic doesn't return with a vengeance related to the new virus strains.

Most likely the large gains in exports might also be attributed, even related to the volume in 2019, might be partly about the delayed buying as now maybe some customers have decided to buy now and they want or need a new car.

Maybe 2020 wasn't really when they needed or wanted a new car but 2021 is when they want a new car despite all the negatives related to the pandemic and consumer demand was not as good as 2019.

Consumers don't buy a new car so even though the US or China, for example are large consumer buying populations not every consumer is going to buy a new car every year and or even a Japanese car every year. 

So the buying or cars might come in waves sometimes and is not always linear but most likely cyclical, some good buying times and some not so good buying times.

But of course the hope is always there are enough consumers out there willing and able to buy whenever.

Article:

Imports soared 12.8 percent in April to 6.93 trillion yen, up for the third month in a row, lifted by high prices of crude oil. The growth followed a revised 5.8 percent rise the previous month.

As a result, the trade balance logged a surplus of 255.32 billion yen, the third consecutive month of black ink.

By country, exports to China grew 33.9 percent from a year ago to 1.58 trillion yen, the second-highest level since comparable data became available in January 1979, following a record 1.63 trillion yen in March this year.

Ideas:

Imports like exports have also seen an increase due to the improvement in supply chains and improvements in logistics or shipping.

In the spring and summer of 2020 there were a lot of supply chain challenges and a lot of shipping challenges, both in ships and airline cargo shipments.

But most of those challenges have now been overcome and most logistics and supplies chains are back to normal, or a new normal for the pandemic period the global economy is in.

It seems oil price increases are always influencing the amount of imports into Japan.

Of course higher oil prices might be an indication of supply challenges such as OPEC deciding to reduce production and or other challenges such as the number of actual suppliers in the market reducing supply.

Japan, even though it has a large economy, the third largest in the world, is still heavily dependent on exports. Exports bring money into the economy, which is needed to help with the high debt to GPD that Japan has, one of the highest if not the highest among advanced economies.

Its not surprising that exports to China grew as much as it did. Again most likely it could be pent-up demand or delayed demand for the spring of 2020, and now businesses and consumers are making up for the less that normal demand in the spring and summer of 2020.

Article:

In addition to shipments of chip-making equipment amid a global shortage of semiconductors, those of hybrid cars and raw materials such as copper scrap contributed to the growth of exports to Japan's largest trading partner.

Imports from China inched up 0.7 percent, with a decrease in those of yarns and textile goods fully offset by rises in cellphones and nonferrous metals. The balance was a 165.99 billion yen deficit for Japan.

Exports to Asia including China hit the second-highest level of 4.16 trillion yen, up 32.7 percent. Imports grew 10.2 percent, with Japan seeing a 674.06 billion yen trade surplus.

Ideas:

The increase in hybrid cars most likely will continue to grow as the conventional gas type cars will begin to be phased out over time and new technologies develop and as consumers see new types of cars on the market and even in the future more and more electric cars coming more of a maintain stream car.

Copper scrap like other types of scrap metals seems to be big exports items to China as most likely they are re-tooled to be used in many different types of products in China.

The decrease in yarns and textile good might be somewhat related to the political climate in some parts of China as some companies maybe are taking a second look or looking at alternative suppliers in other regions of China or somewhere else globally.

Again a trade surplus is very important for Japan as exports bring money into Japan, while imports cause money to flow out of Japan. The trade surplus is like a bank account of exports adding to the bank account and imports reducing the bank account.

Article:

Exports to the United States jumped 45.1 percent for the second successive month of increase after automobile shipments more than doubled. Imports were up 5.8 percent, resulting in a surplus for Japan of 537.72 billion yen.

"In addition to China, the pace of economic recovery in the United States is getting stronger thanks to its steady vaccination promotion and large-scale stimulus program, and that has made the conditions surrounding Japan's exports better," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

Ideas:

Exports to the US might again, like China, an increase in delayed consumer demand along with the cyclical nature of buying big ticket items.

Perhaps 2019 was a good year for cars shipments and car buying in the US but because of either the pandemic, delayed buying of car, and just not the right year, as cars are not bought by consumer yearly, there was a large increase of car shipments to the US.

Consumer demand seems to be improving in the US as in China, but the summer will be real test because of the increase now in the virus variants.

The stock markets have already shown their concern with the stock markets lower than expected along with the US reserve talking about a key rate hike.

Article:

The solid recovery of exports has been supporting Japan's economy, which is now suffering from dampened consumption under the government's third state of emergency declared in late April amid the spread of more contagious virus variants.

Minami said Japan's dependence on exports for economic recovery is expected to continue given its sluggish vaccine rollout. Meanwhile, he noted a risk that the global shortage of semiconductors, necessary parts for cars, could suppress auto exports.

All figures were compiled on a customs-cleared basis.

Ideas:

An increase in exports is always good but an economy can't grow only on exports.

Consumer demand, which is estimated to be 50 percent of the Japanese economy or GDP, also needs to improve to see a complete and full recovery of the economy.

But most likely that is not going until the the services sector begins to fully recover.

And that is not going to happen until consumers able to freely move and travel around the country and visit restaurants, go to hotels, go to resorts etc.

And even more the services industry and the economy is not going to fully recover anytime soon until the economy and country fully opens up again to foreign tourist.

Japan, whether good or bad, had become heavily dependent on international tourism, such as the huge numbers of international travelers from China and the Asian countries after former Prime Minister Abe made it one of his economic strategies to grow the economy through international tourism.

Unfortunately, again whether good or bad, many businesses and industries were created and developed because of the huge number of tourists, most from China.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Wholesale Prices:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210517/p2g/00m/0bu/026000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's wholesale prices climbed 3.6 percent in April from a year earlier, the sharpest increase in over six years, as oil and commodity prices rose in line with a recovery by the world economy from the coronavirus pandemic, the Bank of Japan said Monday.

The prices of goods traded between companies rose for the second straight month, posting the largest on-year gain since September 2014. They marked a revised 1.2 percent rise in March, the first increase in 13 months.

Ideas:

Wholesales prices rise and fall quarterly. The real challenge is how much of the prices increases or decreases are passed on the the customer.

If not regulated, its possible some wholesalers might decide to pass on all of the their costs to the customer or consumer, whether a business or a end consumer.

For example if there is a major heat wave in the summer and consumers use a lot of electricity, are the electric companies going to charge full amount or does government tell the electricity companies there is a cutoff that you can only charge so much.

The price increases of good traded among companies seems logical, especially among those in a manufacturing logistics chain, as the manufacturing industry is somewhat back to normal.

Article:

By item, prices for oil and coal products jumped 39.3 percent due to higher crude oil prices, reflecting a recovery from pandemic-hit levels a year earlier.

Nonferrous metal prices surged 35.2 percent due to strong demand in China, while prices for scrap metal soared 72.8 percent as demand for steel products in Japan and overseas also improved.

Ideas:

All of the commodities listed above most likely are all used in the manufacturing industry as manufacturing has recorded based on global demand for Japanese and Chinese products.

What is not mentioned, or maybe its part of the nonferrous metals, is the demand and prices of rare earth minerals, which are very important for the manufacturing of semiconductor chips for all kinds of 21st century products.

Article:

"Wholesale prices in Japan have been driven by a recovery of the overseas economy and influenced to a large degree by commodity prices," said a BOJ official.

Meanwhile, electricity, gas and water bills fell 8.1 percent from a year earlier.

Import prices rose 15.1 percent from the previous year while export prices gained 8.2 percent, both in yen terms.

Ideas:

Wholesale prices most likely are more related intermediate goods that are used in manufacturing, whether the intermediate goods are from Japan or abroad.

And of course as more there is more demand from overseas manufacturers need more intermediate products to meet the demand for example cars or laptop computers or whatever else in from Japan that is in demand.

And at the same time, manufacturing companies in China, whether Chinese or Japanese use a lot of intermediate goods produced in Japan.

Perhaps the reason for the decrease in electricity, gas, and water bills less consumer usage and or consumers cutting back to save money related to the uncertainty of jobs.

And or more people are going back to their offices and now are not at home as much as last spring and as such use less of the three.

The rise in imports prices good be many things beside the rise in oil prices globally

Part of the rise in import price is the increase in logistics and shipping and or the increase in prices due to more demand and as such suppliers see the opportunity to raise prices as they see an increase in demand.

And then there is the idea of the currency exchange rate which is increasing the prices of imports too.

Currency exchange rate increases or decrease can be both a positive and a negative.

For an exporter, they would prefer what is called a weak exchange rate as they get more for their products overseas.

While an importer would prefer the opposite. A week currency exchange rate means importers, those companies in Japan, have to pay more for the products they bring into Japan.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan: First Quarter GPD:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210518/p2g/00m/0na/028000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's economy in the January-March period contracted an annualized real 5.1 percent from the previous quarter, the first shrinkage in three quarters, as a second state of emergency over the coronavirus pandemic dented consumption, government data showed Tuesday.

The decrease in real gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services produced in the country adjusted for inflation, corresponds to a 1.3 percent contraction on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, according to the preliminary data released by the Cabinet Office.

The data also showed that GDP in fiscal 2020 through March decreased a real 4.6 percent from a year ago, down for the second straight year. It is the largest annual contraction on record since data began to be compiled in fiscal 1955.

Ideas:

Its not a surprise that Japan's GDP shrank in Q1, as the emergency measures asked citizens to refrain from going to places and restaurants and bars to close early.

While there might have been a contraction in the GPD, it appeared, from sources in Japan, that people were still out and about, but maybe not as before the pandemic.

For example, when my sources wanted to go to a Starbucks, they said all of the Starbucks in the Yokohama are were full and there were no seats.

And for example, as Landmark Tower, a shopping mall area, whenever they wanted to go to H&M clothes store, the store was not letting everyone in. Customers had to wait outside as H&M limited the number of customers into the store.

But this is a good to think about. Even though there was  4.6 percent decrease in GDP doesn't mean everything has shut down or that there is not any economic activity taking place.

There might been a 4.6 percent decrease but there was still a lot of economic activity taking place.

Article:

The previous record contraction was a 3.6 percent shrinkage in fiscal 2008 logged in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Facing a resurgence of virus infections since November, the government declared its second state of emergency in early January for the Tokyo metropolitan area, and expanded it to 11 out of Japan's 47 prefectures within a week. It was fully lifted in late March.

With requests for people to stay at home, and restaurants and bars to shorten operating hours to curb the virus spread, the measure led to a sharp drop of 1.4 percent in private consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP in the world's third-largest economy, from October to December.

Ideas:

Yes, a 1.4 percent decline in private consumption or consumer spending is never good, but again it must be remembered, that the whole Japanese economy has not shut down. 

As stated above, from sources in Yokohama, the Yokohama station area was always full, the Starbucks were always full, and the Landmark Tower mall was always full of customers.

While there might have been as many consumers/customers as before the pandemic, there were still a lot of customers/consumers moving around, some maybe shopping and buying and some maybe just to be out and about.

Another point maybe is, as has been seen globally, people can only stay inside for so long. After that they will find ways to get out and about. Maybe not spending as much as before but they want to be out and doing things.

Maybe they aren't going to restaurants at night, like before, but they are out and about during the day.

Article:

Looking ahead, some analysts predict Japan will continue to see a contraction in the current April-June period, as another emergency issued late last month now covers Tokyo and eight prefectures amid the spread of more contagious virus variants, with the country lagging behind other major economies in its vaccine rollout.

After marking the record sharpest GDP drop in 2020's second quarter due to the nation's first virus emergency from April to May, the Japanese economy enjoyed a strong recovery until the October-December quarter as the gradual resumption of economic activity lifted consumption and exports.

Ideas:

Unfortunately the new virus variants are not good. But most likely its not going to keep everyone from going out and doing things.

For example, every time I see the YouTube related to the Tokyo Shibuya scramble crossing, it seems like everyone in Tokyo is out and about.

While they might be going to some important places or work, most are probably just out with their friends doing things including shopping or eating lunch etc.

At some point in Japan and globally people begin to just get used to idea of there being a virus but they still want to be out.

And as people read and hear more citizens are getting vaccinated that might be enough of an incentive for more people to go out and do things they did before the pandemic.

Of course the problem with that is maybe some people will let their guard down and not keep the safe procedures that are needed during the pandemic.

Article:

The latest quarterly GDP decline was worse than the average projection of an annualized 4.61 percent shrinkage by private-sector economists.

In nominal terms, or unadjusted for price changes, the economy shrank 1.6 percent, or an annualized 6.3 percent, in the reporting quarter, and 4.0 percent in fiscal 2020.

Revised GDP data for the reporting quarter and fiscal year is scheduled to be released on June 8.

Ideas:

Yes, again those above figures are not good and it clearly shows a decrease in economic activity for the period mentioned.

And just a numbers or numbers doesn't give the full picture of what is going on.

For example how many businesses went under, how many are just surviving. What sectors of industries are doing good and what sectors are not doing so good.

But from previous reports we know that the manufacturing industry including exports has improved a lot the past year.

While the services sector including hotels and the tourism industry has not done too well the past year.

But it must be remembered again, despite 1.6 decrease, it is not the entire economy, meaning the economy has not stopped. There is still a lot of economic activity taking place.

A decrease of 1.6 percent is never good, but there are always positives and negatives even when there is a 1.6 percent decline.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Household Spending:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210511/p2g/00m/0bu/077000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's household spending in fiscal 2020 fell a real 4.9 percent from a year earlier, posting the second-sharpest drop on record as the coronavirus pandemic forced many people to refrain from eating out and taking trips, government data showed Tuesday.

For March alone, meanwhile, average spending by households with two or more people rose a real 6.2 percent from a year earlier, the third-largest monthly increase since comparable data became available in January 2001, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

Spending by households with two or more people averaged 276,167 yen ($2,500) per month in the fiscal year through March, decreasing for the second straight year.

Ideas:

It was not a surprise that Japan household spending, or consumer spending, decreased in fiscal 2020.

4.9 percent doesn't really seem like that much but when you look at the total household spending 4.9 percent becomes a lot.

And it was not a surprise that spending increased in March, as the emergency measures were reduced meaning more consumers were out and about.

Of course it being spring might have had something to do with an increase in spending as people were out and about to see the new cherry blossoms and to enjoy the warmer weather.

Article:

The 4.9 percent drop followed a 5.1 percent decline marked in fiscal 2014 when personal consumption was battered by a consumption tax hike from 5 percent to 8 percent in April.

The latest data reflect the adverse impact of the virus that began to spread in the country in spring last year, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency twice in the reporting year and request people to stay home and restaurants to shorten business hours.

The pandemic triggered the worst contraction on record for the world's third-largest economy in the April-June period in 2020 when the first state of emergency was declared and nonessential businesses were asked to suspend operations.

Ideas:

Its understandable that the Japanese government requested people to stay home.

But how many people started to buy online instead of going to physical places to spend.

And how many business, if they didn't have a presence already, started to sell their products and or those essential to customers online.

For example, did supermarket begin to sell online and then have different kinds of delivery methods like has been reported.

Such as instead of going into the supermarket, some supermarkets bring the purchased products outside to waiting cars.

And or how many supermarkets started delivery services using motor scooters and or delivery service companies to provide more safety to customers.

How many restaurants, besides the fast food places, started delivery services if they could afford it, either using a food delivery service company, or delivered the food themselves within a certain geographic area.

Article:

Household spending sank a real 16.2 percent in May from a year earlier to log the steepest monthly drop on record, following an 11.1 percent dive in April.

"The coronavirus pandemic largely affected expenditures throughout the year, as people spent less on such activities as eating out and buying clothes due to stay-at-home requests," a ministry official told reporters.

By category, outlays for dining and drinking at restaurants and bars plunged 29.8 percent from fiscal 2019, and those for clothing and shoes were down 19.7 percent. Spending on transportation plummeted 51.2 percent, while that on entertainment services including trips fell 30.6 percent.

Ideas:

For every negative in the market place, there are always some positives or some positives are created.

For example, again how many consumers started to buy or shop online.

How much did Amazon Japan increase in sales during this time.

Did any Japanese department stores or other retail type places use or begin to use the Amazon method of having customers pick up purchased products at convenience stores.

Or maybe some retail place had already been doing it, and it not really an Amazon Japan idea.

But of course besides safety, there might have been many consumers who worried about their jobs, or income, or future, which would also have decreased spending.

Article:

On the other hand, so-called nest-dweller consumption grew, with expenditures on goods for entertainment use such as laptops and television sets rising 11.7 percent and utility bill payments up 4.6 percent.

Spending on meat and fish also rose 10.0 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, as people bought more foodstuffs to cook at home.

The average monthly income of salaried households with at least two people in fiscal 2020 grew a real 3.5 percent to 607,586 yen, up for the third consecutive year.

Ideas:

Again there are positives and negatives in any situation. As consumers decreased spending on some things they began to buy other things or alternative products.

Of as demand for these so-called nest-dweller products increased it would not be surprising if the prices on these types of product also increased

One only need to go Amazon Japan and maybe can see the increase in the prices of laptops as demand for these products increased throughout the year.

And did the prices of meat and fish increase too, as demand for these products increased.

And again, did the supermarkets provide an safe delivery type service either by delivery, bring the products to waiting cars or customers outside, as has been reported before.

It interesting that salaries increased during the pandemic as many companies maybe were not doing too good.

Article:

The income data reflected the impact of the government's 100,000 yen cash handout program to all of Japan's 126 million residents to mitigate the economic fallout from the pandemic.

As for March this year, average household spending stood at 309,800 yen, up for the first time in four months, as the government's second state of emergency over the pandemic was fully lifted late in the month. A 6.0 percent drop in March last year also helped boost the figure.

The second virus emergency issued in early January had suppressed household spending, which decreased by 6.1 percent in January and 6.6 percent in February.

Household spending is a key indicator of private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's gross domestic product.

Ideas:

And yes the handout might have reflected in the increase salaries if it was included, which maybe it shouldn't have in order to see the real salaries throughout the year.

Household spending or consumer spending has always been a target of the Bank of Japan.

As Japan become more of an ageing society, those in the 65+ age groups tend to spend less.

And as those groups become more and more of the population, it could show a real decrease in consumer spending in the economy overall.

One of the reasons that the Bank of Japan's target or goal of reaching 2 percent inflation has been the affect of the aged population.

But at the same time, its quite possible, brainstorming, that a 2 percent inflation goal, just might not be the correct target for the Japanese economy.

As Japan is a relatively rich society, then yes, there is potential to reach the 2 percent target, but the it appears, overall, that Japan is still a society that tends to spend less that the relatively rich western countries.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Wages:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210507/p2g/00m/0bu/070000c  

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Nominal monthly wages in Japan in March rose 0.2 percent from a year earlier for the first increase in 13 months, reflecting a decline in the number of part-timers amid the coronavirus pandemic, the government said Friday.

Average total cash earnings per worker, including base and overtime pay, stood at 282,164 yen ($2,600) on a nominal basis in the reporting month, according to preliminary data from the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry.

Ideas:

Unfortunately, as an economy is very complex,  the idea of every worker in the economy being full time is not possible.

As there are many companies and jobs within companies that are part time and don't need to be full time.

But the problem is many part time and temporary jobs don't meet the needs of workers, whether single workers or members of families, such as the wife in family that needs both the husband and wife to work to meet their needs and even stay above water.

Japan, like many advanced countries now has a imbalance between the top wage earners and the lower wage earners.

Many years ago, Japan was one of the countries without a lot of income inequality. 

But ever since the 90's situation and even more since the 2008 global financial crisis income in equality has grown to now its a noticeable problem.

Article: 

The average monthly wages for full-time workers fell 0.3 percent to 365,804 yen and those of part-time workers dropped 0.8 percent to 96,350 yen, the data showed.

As many employers laid off part-timers or remained reluctant to hire new staff amid deteriorating business conditions, the proportion of part-timer workers to total laborers continues to decrease, hitting 31.02 percent in March, down 0.59 point from the previous year, according to the ministry.

"As the ratio of regular workers increased, overall wages were lifted," a ministry official said.

Ideas:

Unfortunately its been the temporary workers and the part time workers who have suffered the most during the pandemic.

And of course many regular businesses have suffered too.

But most part time or temporary jobs are filled either by women, such as housewives and or students who need to work.

As such, this also has affected consumer spending in the Japanese economy, as this group now has less disposable income to use in the economy.

So again it has a multiplier affect. As the part time and temporary workers lose there jobs, they have less income to use in the economy, which means those businesses they might have frequented now have less sales and it just keeps multiplying throughout the economy.

Article:

Average overtime pay has continued to decline due to the pandemic, with the March figure dropping 6.2 percent from a year earlier to 18,113 yen, amid the country's virus-induced second state of emergency, which was in place in Tokyo and three neighboring prefectures through March 21.

By sector, overtime pay in hotel and restaurant industries plunged 31.8 percent from the previous year, while that in services related to people's daily lives such as hair salons as well as entertainment businesses tumbled 28.2 percent, the data showed.

On a real, or inflation-adjusted, basis, monthly wages rose 0.5 percent, up for the second consecutive month.

Ideas:

And yes many types of businesses are affected by the decrease in jobs, the decrease in overtime etc.

So goes, as people/consumers lose income and jobs they are not going to spend as usual, which of course affects the many businesses they might have frequented.

So the idea that one person loses his/her job or has a decrease in wages, and has no affect on the economy is not reality. 

Multiply that into thousands and ten of thousands and all of those businesses that they might have frequented now have less sales. 

And not that they have less sales maybe the workers of those companies will lose their jobs or lose overtime, or even have their salaries reduced.

And then add in the suppliers of those business and now the businesses that are losing customers and sales, now need less supplies from their suppliers and the multiplier affect continues on throughout an economy.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Q1:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210501/p2g/00m/0bu/013000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's economy in the January to March quarter is estimated to have shrunk an annualized real 4.8 percent, as a second state of emergency over the coronavirus pandemic dampened consumption, economists said Friday.

The average estimate by 10 economists polled by Kyodo News indicates the world's third-largest economy likely logged its first shrinkage since an annualized 29.3 percent contraction in the three months ended in June 2020, its worst economic plunge on record triggered by its first virus emergency.

The Cabinet Office is scheduled to release preliminary GDP data for this year's first quarter on May 18.

Ideas:

An economy, any economy, is very complicated mix of different kinds of businesses and sectors. And then you add in government spending and consumer spending and it can be even more complicated.

As such, no economy ever has equal growth in all sectors or areas.

Its been mentioned recently the manufacturing sector has shown excellent growth since a year ago.

Bu the service sector, which include the tourism industry has done just the opposite.

But even in normal times, before the pandemic, as stated above, not all sectors every grow at the same rate. As some grow faster, some slower, and some decrease.

Article:

With the forecasts ranging between decreases of 3.5 percent and 8.8 percent, the economists all cited the impact of the country's second state of emergency, declared in early January for the Tokyo metropolitan area and later expanded to 11 out of the nation's 47 prefectures amid a third wave of virus infections since November.

Asking for people to stay home and restaurants and bars to close early to curb the virus spread, the measure led private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's GDP, to a sharp drop. It was fully lifted in late March.

In addition, the government's "Go To Travel" subsidy program, launched last July to help the tourism industry weather the fallout from the pandemic, has been suspended since late December in response to a spike in virus cases.

Ideas:

Consumer spending, estimated at around 50 percent of Japan's GDP is always a challenge. And and now the pandemic it has become eve more of a challenge.

It seems, according to the Bank of Japan and how they communicate about consumer spending, that consumer spending in Japan never reaches the level of its true potential.

Most likely because of the ageing population challenge in the economy and the fact, for the most part, Japanese consumers have neve been the big spenders like in the US or other countries.

The closing bars and restaurants has been multiple pronged challenge as not only does it affect the restaurants and bars but also all of the suppliers of restaurants and bars, and also those connect to the suppliers further down the supply chain.

So you have multiple affects related to the closings of businesses.

Of course you can say the same thing with other services companies such hotels, airlines, tourist related businesses.

You can also call it the multiplier affect, meaning the restaurants close, then the suppliers to restaurants are affected, then the suppliers to the suppliers, and then maybe the logistics companies, and then all of the workers in all of the companies, who lose income and then they have less income to spend in the economy, and then even more businesses are affected and it goes on.

Article:

"Consumption in the service sector dropped remarkably due to the virus emergency, affecting the economy," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, who forecast an annualized 4.9 percent GDP decline in the quarter ended March.

The Japanese economy had rebounded with double-digit percentage growth on an annualized basis for two straight quarters through the October to December quarter, boosted by brisk exports on the back of a firm recovery in the global economy as well as consumer spending coming back to life.

But the economic outlook for coming quarters remains unclear, as Tokyo and the western prefectures of Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo have been put under another virus emergency since Sunday following the unexpectedly fast spread of the virus, particularly its mutated, highly contagious strains.

Ideas:

Yes it seemed the the 3rd and 4th quarters like the Japanese economy was beginning to get back to some kind of normal or even new normal.

And the the other virus waves hit and back to square one like mentioned above and how the closings of some businesses can affect many other businesses in an economy.

It unclear just what is going to happen as the new virus strains appear to now be in Japan.

And of course the Japanese government and Tokyo is under a lot of pressure related to the Tokyo Olympics coming up in July.

Exports appear to being doing well, but again you never know exactly, as things can change very quickly during this continued pandemic period.

Article:

The current declaration is set to end on May 11, entailing measures such as requests for major commercial facilities to suspend operations. The latest steps are tougher than those under the second emergency but softer than the first one.

Shinke said the Japanese economy may possibly see another GDP shrinkage in the April to June period.

Ideas:

It remains to be seen as what is exactly going to happen.

Some businesses may actually have had no affect related to the pandemic situation while there are many businesses that have closed or are just surviving.

That is the complexity of an economy. Even in the worst of times, there are always some positives but also a lot more negatives.

There might actually be some businesses that have been created due to the pandemic and are doing very good.

But of course there might be just as many there are not doing so good.

Have a nice day and be safe!