Japan April Exports:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210520/p2g/00m/0bu/048000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's exports in April rose 38.0 percent from a year ago, the largest increase in over a decade, as they continued to recover from a coronavirus pandemic-triggered slump thanks to strong demand in China and the United States, government data showed Thursday.

Exports of goods in the reporting month soared to 7.18 trillion yen ($66 billion), posting the fastest pace of increase since a 40.4 percent jump in April 2010 when the world economy was rebounding from the global financial crisis, according to the preliminary data released by the Finance Ministry.

Exports expanded for the second straight month following a 16.1 percent leap in March.

Ideas:

A 38.0 percent increase from a year ago might sound good, but it needs to be remembered just how much exports decreased in the spring of 2020.

Strong demand in China and the US is not as surprise as consumer demand in both countries is increasing.

But any increase is good for the Japanese economy and the manufacturing companies as they are able to get back to some kind of normalcy or even a new normal.

The key can they sustain the momentum they have now with the virus variants beginning to enter many countries.

And can car manufacturers meet demand with a chip shortage throughout the supply chain.

Article:

The scale of the expansion is partly a reflection of a 21.9 percent plunge in the exports from the world's third-largest economy in April last year, when the pandemic was hampering business activities worldwide and denting global demand for Japan-made items such as cars.

Still, the latest exports figure was larger than the pre-pandemic figure of 6.66 trillion yen logged in April 2019.

Shipments of car and auto parts to the United States and semiconductor producing equipment to China increased remarkably in the reporting month.

Ideas:

Exports look for Japan in the future as long as the pandemic doesn't return with a vengeance related to the new virus strains.

Most likely the large gains in exports might also be attributed, even related to the volume in 2019, might be partly about the delayed buying as now maybe some customers have decided to buy now and they want or need a new car.

Maybe 2020 wasn't really when they needed or wanted a new car but 2021 is when they want a new car despite all the negatives related to the pandemic and consumer demand was not as good as 2019.

Consumers don't buy a new car so even though the US or China, for example are large consumer buying populations not every consumer is going to buy a new car every year and or even a Japanese car every year. 

So the buying or cars might come in waves sometimes and is not always linear but most likely cyclical, some good buying times and some not so good buying times.

But of course the hope is always there are enough consumers out there willing and able to buy whenever.

Article:

Imports soared 12.8 percent in April to 6.93 trillion yen, up for the third month in a row, lifted by high prices of crude oil. The growth followed a revised 5.8 percent rise the previous month.

As a result, the trade balance logged a surplus of 255.32 billion yen, the third consecutive month of black ink.

By country, exports to China grew 33.9 percent from a year ago to 1.58 trillion yen, the second-highest level since comparable data became available in January 1979, following a record 1.63 trillion yen in March this year.

Ideas:

Imports like exports have also seen an increase due to the improvement in supply chains and improvements in logistics or shipping.

In the spring and summer of 2020 there were a lot of supply chain challenges and a lot of shipping challenges, both in ships and airline cargo shipments.

But most of those challenges have now been overcome and most logistics and supplies chains are back to normal, or a new normal for the pandemic period the global economy is in.

It seems oil price increases are always influencing the amount of imports into Japan.

Of course higher oil prices might be an indication of supply challenges such as OPEC deciding to reduce production and or other challenges such as the number of actual suppliers in the market reducing supply.

Japan, even though it has a large economy, the third largest in the world, is still heavily dependent on exports. Exports bring money into the economy, which is needed to help with the high debt to GPD that Japan has, one of the highest if not the highest among advanced economies.

Its not surprising that exports to China grew as much as it did. Again most likely it could be pent-up demand or delayed demand for the spring of 2020, and now businesses and consumers are making up for the less that normal demand in the spring and summer of 2020.

Article:

In addition to shipments of chip-making equipment amid a global shortage of semiconductors, those of hybrid cars and raw materials such as copper scrap contributed to the growth of exports to Japan's largest trading partner.

Imports from China inched up 0.7 percent, with a decrease in those of yarns and textile goods fully offset by rises in cellphones and nonferrous metals. The balance was a 165.99 billion yen deficit for Japan.

Exports to Asia including China hit the second-highest level of 4.16 trillion yen, up 32.7 percent. Imports grew 10.2 percent, with Japan seeing a 674.06 billion yen trade surplus.

Ideas:

The increase in hybrid cars most likely will continue to grow as the conventional gas type cars will begin to be phased out over time and new technologies develop and as consumers see new types of cars on the market and even in the future more and more electric cars coming more of a maintain stream car.

Copper scrap like other types of scrap metals seems to be big exports items to China as most likely they are re-tooled to be used in many different types of products in China.

The decrease in yarns and textile good might be somewhat related to the political climate in some parts of China as some companies maybe are taking a second look or looking at alternative suppliers in other regions of China or somewhere else globally.

Again a trade surplus is very important for Japan as exports bring money into Japan, while imports cause money to flow out of Japan. The trade surplus is like a bank account of exports adding to the bank account and imports reducing the bank account.

Article:

Exports to the United States jumped 45.1 percent for the second successive month of increase after automobile shipments more than doubled. Imports were up 5.8 percent, resulting in a surplus for Japan of 537.72 billion yen.

"In addition to China, the pace of economic recovery in the United States is getting stronger thanks to its steady vaccination promotion and large-scale stimulus program, and that has made the conditions surrounding Japan's exports better," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

Ideas:

Exports to the US might again, like China, an increase in delayed consumer demand along with the cyclical nature of buying big ticket items.

Perhaps 2019 was a good year for cars shipments and car buying in the US but because of either the pandemic, delayed buying of car, and just not the right year, as cars are not bought by consumer yearly, there was a large increase of car shipments to the US.

Consumer demand seems to be improving in the US as in China, but the summer will be real test because of the increase now in the virus variants.

The stock markets have already shown their concern with the stock markets lower than expected along with the US reserve talking about a key rate hike.

Article:

The solid recovery of exports has been supporting Japan's economy, which is now suffering from dampened consumption under the government's third state of emergency declared in late April amid the spread of more contagious virus variants.

Minami said Japan's dependence on exports for economic recovery is expected to continue given its sluggish vaccine rollout. Meanwhile, he noted a risk that the global shortage of semiconductors, necessary parts for cars, could suppress auto exports.

All figures were compiled on a customs-cleared basis.

Ideas:

An increase in exports is always good but an economy can't grow only on exports.

Consumer demand, which is estimated to be 50 percent of the Japanese economy or GDP, also needs to improve to see a complete and full recovery of the economy.

But most likely that is not going until the the services sector begins to fully recover.

And that is not going to happen until consumers able to freely move and travel around the country and visit restaurants, go to hotels, go to resorts etc.

And even more the services industry and the economy is not going to fully recover anytime soon until the economy and country fully opens up again to foreign tourist.

Japan, whether good or bad, had become heavily dependent on international tourism, such as the huge numbers of international travelers from China and the Asian countries after former Prime Minister Abe made it one of his economic strategies to grow the economy through international tourism.

Unfortunately, again whether good or bad, many businesses and industries were created and developed because of the huge number of tourists, most from China.

Have a nice day and be safe!