Thursday, March 10, 2022

Japan Household Spending:

 Article Source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220311/p2g/00m/0bu/019000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's household spending rose a real 6.9 percent in January from a year earlier, in response to the previous year's steep fall in expenditures due to a coronavirus state of emergency, government data showed Friday.

    Average spending by households with two or more people was 287,801 yen ($2,480), the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said.

    In January last year, household spending plunged 6.0 percent from the previous year amid a third COVID-19 infection wave. Under the emergency, people were asked to stay at home and restaurants and bars to close earlier.

    Ideas:

    Consumer spending or household spending is always a major challenge for the Bank of Japan, as spending is never where it should be for the 3rd largest economy.

    Consumer spending increased 6.9 percent in January from a year earlier but what does that say when a year earlier it decreased 6.0 percent. 

    Again consumer spending is and has been a major challenge for the Bank of Japan as it seems spending is never where it should be or never reaches its potential as Japan has always been more of a savings economy compared to other advanced economies such as the US which is more of a spending economy.

    Article;

    Even though the country saw another virus resurgence in January this year with the spread of the highly contagious Omicron variant that put over 30 of 47 prefectures under a quasi-state of emergency, restrictions on economic activities were milder.

    Reflecting the impact of the infection spike following the year-end and New Year holidays, seasonally adjusted spending in January decreased 1.2 percent from the previous month following a 0.2 percent rise in December.

    Ideas:

    The idea that there was only a 0.2 percent increase is a good example of an economy that never spends as much as other economies. 

    For example, while Japan doesn't celebrate the December holidays like the US does, its still  a major period as you can see the holiday decoration everywhere along with all kinds of event marking the December holiday period.

    But only a 0.2 percent increase might have been because of the virus situation was still a major problem a the time.

    And its important to remember that most likely the Japanease government asked companies to not have any end of year parties or celebrations because of the covid situation which of course would have decreased spending at hotels and restuarants.

    A decrease of 1.2 percent in January might have been again the government not wanting any major end of year or parties and celebrations from whomever and also maybe a lack of travel during the holiday New Year week period.

    Article:

    The average monthly income of salaried households with at least two people increased a real 1.6 percent in January to 479,805 yen as many people apparently received more overtime pay than last year, when they were working from home, a ministry official said.

    The figure climbed for the sixth consecutive month, following a 4.6 percent rise in December.

    Household spending is a key indicator of private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's gross domestic product.

    Ideas:

    The idea that many people recieved more overtime pay is definetly a good thing as then maybe they might use it in the economy, consumer spending, and not just put into the banks where it really not helping the economy that much.

    There has got to be a balance between savings and spending for an economy to be vibrant and healthy.

    Too much savings and then there is not enough money moving through the economy at the right velocity. Too much money moving through and economy has the potential for increased inflation is consumer spending begins to get too high.

    But Japan, except for the 1980's has not had that problem for a very long time.

    Japan's major challenge now is not enough money moving through the economy for the size of the economy. 

    As the Japanese economy is the 3rd largest economy in the world, which means potentially there should be more consumer spending than there is now.

    Have a nice day and be safe!

    Tuesday, March 8, 2022

    Japan Business Sentiment:

     Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220308/p2g/00m/0bu/051000c

    Article:

    TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Business sentiment among workers with jobs sensitive to economic trends in Japan fell for the second straight month in February as economic activities remained curbed amid a coronavirus resurgence, government data showed Tuesday.

      The diffusion index of confidence in current conditions compared with three months earlier among "economy watchers," such as taxi drivers and restaurant staff, inched down 0.2 point to 37.7 following a 19.6 point plunge in January, the steepest fall since March 2011, according to the Cabinet Office.

      The office maintained its assessment of the economy from the previous month, saying it has shown "some weakness in its recovery." A reading below 50 indicates that more respondents feel conditions are worsening rather than improving.

      Ideas:

      Workers with jobs that are sensitive to economic trends are aways going to be on edge meaning they are always going to worry about today, next week, and next month.

      As long at the Japanease economy is not where is should be workers are going to be on edge about what is happening and what is going to happen in the future.

      The Japanease economy is the third largest in the world, with a lot of econmic activity, but at the time is is never at it fullest potential as their seems to be some blind spots or areas that are constantly weak in the economy.

      Its important to remember an index is just a number, its not 100 percent realistic as to what some might think tomorrow, or next week, or next month.

      Article:

      In the reporting month, over 30 of Japan's 47 prefectures were under a quasi-state of emergency, which calls for people to refrain from nonessential travel between prefectures, in response to surging new daily COVID-19 cases amid the spread of the highly contagious Omicron variant.

      A worker at a high-end restaurant in the greater Tokyo area said a request for shorter opening hours under the quasi-state of emergency had a severe impact on the business.

      "There have been no parties held by companies, which have been a pillar of our revenue, while the number of individual customers remains low," the worker said.

      Ideas:

      Shorter working hours at restaurants, especially restaurants, might be the difference between just breaking and making a substantial profit.

      Most restaurants probably get a lot of business in the eveneings and during the day so much, so the everning hours for late night customers or company employees might be important to them.

      And then you add in the idea of no parties or business meetings held at restaurants or hotels and that can add up to a lot of lost economic activity each month.

      Eventually maybe they will all begin to return but it might take a some time for hotels and restuarants to get back to the pre-pandemic level. 

      Maybe not until the Golden Week period will hotels, restaurants, and other places begin to feel things are somewhat back to normal or at least a normal new normal.

      Article:

      An employee in the food-manufacturing sector said a recent surge in ingredient prices have added pressure on profitability as "we haven't been able to raise prices of our products yet."

      Looking ahead, the diffusion index gauging business sentiment in the coming months rose 1.9 points from January to 44.4, up for the first time in five months, as many workers expected that progress in administering COVID-19 booster shots would help lift the restriction.

      Still some voiced concerns over the outlook for raw material prices and energy costs, which are surging after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a major oil producer.

      Ideas:

      Companies in Japan have been reluctant to pass on their prices inceases to customers as they know the final end customer is very price sensitive.

      But if many companies in Japan are having the same price increase challenges and they all pass on their cost increases to the next in the supply chain, then maybe customers will have no choice but to accept the fact that Japanease companies, like many companies globally, had no choice but to pass on their costs and then maybe customers will finally accept that a increase in prices is a normal business activity in Japan.

      But there still in Japan, and globally, the continued surge in prices in many different areas, which could mean Japan's inflation level will eventually reach the 2.0 percent level that the Bank of Japan has been looking for.

      But its not the best kind of inflation. The Bank of Japan most likely is looking for an increase in consumer spending inflation and not a supplier cost inflation increase.

      Article:

      A worker in the transportation industry said there are "few factors that indicate the economy will improve" given costs related to the sector such as the price of fuel and tires are all rising.

      The office polled 2,050 workers from Feb. 25 to 28, of whom 1,808, or 88.2 percent, responded.

      Ideas:

      There might not be many factors that are positive in the Japanease economy, but its still the third largest economy in the world, which again means there is still a lot going on.

      And yes, there might be price increases in fuel and tires but that doesn't mean all is bad in the economy.

      An economy is made up of many different sectors. In a market economy there are always some sectors that do better than other sectors.

      Right not those sectors that maybe are being hit hard by raw material cost increases and or fuel price increases might not be feeling good, but that doesn't mean all is bad. 

      They might might just be breaking even or even still making some kind of profit but not what they want or what they estimated their sales might have been in Q1 or Q2.

      Have a nice day and be safe!

      Japan Economy Index:

      Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220308/p2g/00m/0bu/053000c

      Article:

      TOKYO (Kyodo) -- A key index reflecting the state of the Japanese economy dropped in January for the first time in four months, due partly to a halt in auto production amid the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, government data showed Tuesday.

        The Cabinet Office's coincident index of business conditions for the reporting month fell 0.5 point from December to 94.3 against the 2015 base of 100, according to the preliminary data. The January fall came after a 0.4 point rise in December.

        The office maintained its assessment that the domestic economy is "weakening" for the fifth straight month.

        Ideas:

        The Japanese economy is not going to be in an exact upward linear growth pattern for a while as the virus sitution along production shutdown and the Ukraine war are going to keep some economic growth in check.

        And now also add in the China lockdown situation which is going have some effect shipping globally and in Japan at the same time.

        The ports in China are mostly all in lockdown which means all products coming and going through the ports are not moving.

        The Japanese economy might be "weakening" but what does that really mean? Does it mean the economy is not growing as much as the Bank of Japan would like to see. Does it mean the economy is not meeting projections or estimates and so on.

        Just because the an index might say 9.43 doesn't mean everything in the Japanese economy is not so good.

        Business conditions in some sectors might be good while some business conditions in other sectors might not be so good.

        Indexes, while very important, need to be taken with a grain of salt, meaning an economy is very complex and there are many parts to an economy, some parts doing good and some not so good.

        Article:

        The index representing the level of shipments of durable consumer goods, including cars, plunged 12.5 percent, dragging down the overall figure. Indices for producer shipments and industrial production also fell.

        In January, Japanese automakers were forced to halt their production lines and shipments were affected by the rapid spread of the highly transmissible Omicron variant.

        The leading index of business conditions, forecasting the situation in the coming months, dropped 1.0 point to 103.7 in January for the first decline in four months. The index had marked a 1.0 point increase in December.

        Ideas:

        Indexes are very important for whomever as a way to see what might be going on within an ecomomy.

        But at the same time they give a complete pictures of every sector and every business in an economy.

        While the shipments of durable good might be down that doesn't mean other sectors or businesses are down. 

        The Japanese economy is still the third largest economy in the world which means there is still a lot of economic activity taking place.

        While some parts might be down again doesn't mean everything is down. An economy as large as Japan is very complex and has many different moving parts everyday and as such needs to be looked at from a big picture approach and not just focused on what might not be so good and anyone time, in any specific industry or sector.

        But at the same time, those parts that are down, need to be takend seriously as to what might be the challenges they are having such as the surge in the virus situation, the halting of plants because of materials shortages or shipping challenges and so on.

        Have a nice day and be safe!


        Monday, March 7, 2022

        Japan Current Account:

         Article Source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220308/p2g/00m/0bu/024000c

        Article:

        TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan logged a current account deficit of 1.2 trillion yen ($10.3 billion) in January, the second largest on record since comparable data became available in January 1985, due to surging fuel costs, the Finance Ministry said Tuesday.

          The country's current account balance, one of the widest gauges of international trade, remained in the red for the second consecutive month. The deficit was the largest since January 2014, according to a preliminary report released by the Finance Ministry.

          With resource-poor Japan relying heavily on energy imports, rises in energy prices sparked by the global economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic led to a goods trade deficit of 1.60 trillion yen.

          Ideas:

          Japan is probably going to have a current account deficit as long as the Japanease yen is very weak.

          Exports can only do so much for an ecnomy. An economy can't or shouldn't rely only on exports. Exports actually bring money into the current account, but as the yen or a currency weakens beyond a certain level it can be too much for an economy.

          For example, as the currency begins to get weaker and weaker it starts to effect many different resources, products, suppliers and importers.

          And it becomes a multiplier effect meaning it now begins to effect large parts of the econmy.

          If the yen or a currency maybe wasn't as weak as it is, maybe it wouldn't that much of an effect but again the weaker a currency gets it begins to effect more and more of the economy.

          Article:

          Imports expanded 39.9 percent from a year earlier, up for the 12th month in a row, to 8.17 trillion yen. Purchases of crude oil jumped 84.6 percent while those of coal spiked 167.4 percent on year.

          Exports increased 15.2 percent to 6.56 trillion yen, rising for the 11th straight month, buoyed by shipments of iron and steel, light oil and semiconductors.

          Services trade, which includes cargo shipping and passenger transportation, logged a deficit of 737.9 billion yen, partly as Japanese companies' online advertising fees paid to foreign companies increased, a government official said.

          Ideas:

          So exports expanded 15.2 percent while imports expanded 39.9 perent. And 6.56 trillion yen for exports to 8.17 yen for imports. 

          As we can see the biggest problem is crude oil which increased 84.6 percent while coal increased 167.4 percent. So if there was ever a time to try to move into alternative fuel sources now is the time to begin if energy prices continue to increase.

          But of course the problem is how to get whomever to stop using coal and or fossil fuel sources and begin to move into other fuel sources, if even possible.

          Services trade has never been a major area as of yet. And the fees Japanese companies were required to pay didn't help the services trade moving out of the deficit area.

          But back to imports and exports, The value of both is good but it would be good too to see the actual volume of each and not just the value. Of course one can go to JETRO and see the figures there too.

          Article:

          The travel balance posted a 12.3 billion yen surplus, slightly down from 21.1 billion yen logged a year earlier, as 75,000 people traveled from Japan while only 17,800 people visited the country.

          The Japanese government enforced an entry ban on nonresident foreign nationals in late November as the world grappled with the spread of the highly transmissible Omicron coronavirus variant.

          Primary income, which reflects returns on overseas investments, posted a surplus of 1.29 trillion yen, down 13.1 billion yen from a year earlier, as more dividends were paid to foreign investors.

          Ideas:

          Some might think a surplus is better but for travel a deficit might be better, as international travelers spend money in Japan and Japanese travelers take money out of Japan.,

          If a year earlier means 2020, it has to be remembered that from January to February travel in and out of Japan was normal. It wasn't until the first week of March 2020 that the travel restrictions started.

          So even the two months of normal travel most likely there were a lot of international travelers entering Japan they were spending a lot of money in Japan.

          So whether that is a year on year number of just a monthy number it is  way below what it should be.

          If Japan really want to see the economy get back to the pre-pandemic level, its not going to happen without international travelers allowed into Japan.

          The Japanese population are not just big spenders compared to other countries and Japan needs internatioal tourists to spend big in Japan.

          For example, if can ever get it going again, the Chinese are big spenders in Tokyo and other places and businesses need the big spending Chinese international tourists.

          Most all areas of business and investments are not going to be where they should be just yet as the global economy continues to have major challenges with the Ukraine war, the continued increase in energy prices, the continued increase in shipping prices, the continued increase in raw material prices, and the continued increase in food prices in supermarkets.

          Have a nice day and be safe!

          Thursday, March 3, 2022

          Japan's Unemployment Rate:

           Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220304/p2g/00m/0bu/018000c

          Article:

          TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's unemployment rate deteriorated slightly to 2.8 percent in January as a resurgence of coronavirus cases cast a pall over the labor market, government data showed Friday.

            The seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose 0.1 percentage point from the previous month as a COVID-19 quasi-state of emergency was declared in some prefectures in the reporting month due to the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

            Separate government data from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare showed the job availability ratio in January improved to 1.20 from a revised 1.17 in December.

            Ideas:

            Japan still has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world, even at 2.8 percent. 

            The unemployment rate will never be exactly at 0 percent, as there are always those who left their jobs and are looking for work. Those who are unemployed because of structural changes in the economy and may be temporary period for them.

            And then there are those who are not included in the work force, because they haven't been looking for work for a long time, and then there is the aged who might not want to work anymore.

            But just because there was a 0.1 percentage point increase should not be a cause for alarm and people/workers are always changing jobs, always being layed off and looking for work and so on. 

            The unemployment rate is a very fluid rate meaning its never static its always changing.

            Article:

            The ratio means there were 120 job openings for every 100 job seekers. It was the highest ratio since 1.31 in April 2020, when the Japanese government declared a coronavirus state of emergency for the first time.

            The total number of unemployed people in January increased 40,000, or 2.1 percent, from the previous month to 1.9 million, rising after a drop of 50,000 in December, the internal affairs ministry data showed.

            Among them, 710,000 people voluntarily left their jobs, up 10,000, while 590,000 were laid off, an increase of 60,000 from the previous month. The number of new job seekers was unchanged from December at 490,000.

            Ideas:

            At 120 job openings for 100 job seekers might seem like a lot of jobs to choose from. But what kinds of jobs are being offered and just what are jobs seekers looking for these days.

            The pandemic and telework has changed the thinking of some or many workers as how they want to work. Of course it doesn't mean they are going to find what they want but the mindset of workers has changed a lot over the past two or three years.

            What might not be encouraging is the 590,000 who were supposedly laid off. Just why were they laid off? Was it because of the continued pandemic? Are they related to the services sector? Are they related to the tourism sector? Are they from businesses that tried to hold on over the last two years because of the pandemic but finally had no choice but had to lay off workers?

            And or how much of it is just regular economic market activity meaning at any time, there are businesses that open and business that close and or businesses that are doing very good and businesses that are not doing very good and have to lay off workers.

            And of the 490,000 who are new job seekers, who long will it take for them to find a new job? One week, one month, several months, one year and so on?

            Article:

            In the reporting month, over 30 of Japan's 47 prefectures were covered by the quasi-state of emergency, which called for people to refrain from nonessential outings and restaurants to close earlier.

            The resurgence of infections sent the number of people temporarily absent from work to 2.5 million, unadjusted for seasonal factors. The figure hit the highest level since August 2021, when the country was facing a fifth wave of infections.

            "The impact of the coronavirus was especially seen in the lodging and eatery services sector," a ministry official said. In the sector, 220,000 workers were absent in January, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the 590,000 people who were newly furloughed in the month.

            Ideas:

            Those 2.5 million were were absent from work doesn't really say much. If it was infection related then how long were they out of work? One day, a few days, or one week etc. Of course they might not have been out all at the same time, as the omicron virus seemed to be much weaker than the delta virus last August.

            Of course any loss of time at work might not be very good but with a population of 125 million that is less than 0.02 percent of the total population. Not to say its OK, but some might say what percent of the population is hit with the flu during the winter months or even a bad cold during the winter months.

            So 220,000 workers in the lodging and services sector in January, which might indicate either they were laid off, temporarily given required time off because of the continued virus situation.

            This might indicate that maybe many of these workers were used or brough back during the Xmas and New Year holiday period but when those periods ended and the new omicron virus situation hit, there was not enough business to keep them working.

            Article:

            "The lingering coronavirus impact has put a damper on the economy and the labor market has been dragged down too," said Takuya Hoshino, a senior economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

            With Russia's invasion of Ukraine that started last week and a slowing decline of coronavirus cases in Japan, "Downward risks to the economy have increased and we must consider a scenario in which employment will be affected," he added.

            The latest data showed the total number of people in work declined 190,000, or 0.3 percent, from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted 66.9 million.

            Ideas:

            The virus situation and its effects on the Japanease economy most likely are not going to go away any time soon. 

            While cases might begin to slow down, its going to take some time for many businesses and many consumers to feel good about everything for a while.

            At the same time there is the continued increase in everyday prices at supermarkets, at restaurants, and the gasoline stations that is going to slow down the growth of the Japanease econonomy.

            And of course the increase energy costs in all sectors in the economy and the continue increase in raw material prices and other prices that are going to put a drag on business which means they might have to pass even more of their increased costs to the final consumer.

            And the Ukraine situation is going to cause even more increases in many different products related to grains, bread, snacks, mandu and so on.

            And now as the Japanease yen continues to weaken it means import prices are going to increase even more in the future.

            Have a nice day and be safe!

            Japan Consumer Confidence:

            Article Source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220303/p2g/00m/0bu/053000c

            Article

            TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's consumer confidence worsened in February for the third consecutive month due to surges in coronavirus cases and rising raw material prices, the government said Thursday.

              The seasonally adjusted index of sentiment among households made up of two or more people fell 1.4 points to 35.3, its lowest level since May 2021, the Cabinet Office said.

              The index indicates consumers' economic expectations for the coming six months, with a reading below 50 suggesting that pessimists outnumber optimists.

              Ideas:

              The consumer confidence index might be at 35.3, which is not good, if 50 or higher indicates optimists, but it must be remembered its just a number on an index.

              Consumers, as people, are always changing their minds. For example maybe today they take the consumer confidence survey but next week they spend in a normal way as maybe they don't feel pesimistic about what is happending.

              Consumer behavior is very hard to predict or measure correctly as consumers are people and are always changing their minds on what they do.

              While the virus cases are decreasing the raw materials prices in Japan and globally continue to increase, which might mean some companies are might pass on their increased costs to the next in the supply chain, which eventually could include the final consumer.

              Article:

              The Cabinet Office lowered its basic assessment of the index for the second straight month, saying consumer confidence has been "weakening." The term was used for the first time since January 2021, when the country was facing its third wave of virus infections.

              During the Feb. 8-21 survey period, the Omicron coronavirus variant continued to spread and many prefectures were under a coronavirus quasi-state of emergency. Restaurants and bars were asked to close early and stop or limit the serving of alcohol.

              Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine has put further upward pressure on crude oil and other raw material prices, "Trends of infection cases and price hikes of resource costs need to be closely watched," a Cabinet Office official said.

              Ideas:

              Consumer spending and consumer confidence have always been a challenge for the Japanese economy. There might be several reasons why they have always been a challenge.

              One reason might be that Japanese workers, overall, have not received any increases in their salaries for many years. And as their expenses increase they become even more reluctant to spend.

              Another reason might be that the Japan population is becoming older each year. South Korea and Japan are the leading age related countries, meaning they are ageing faster than all other OECD countries. 

              The aged population tends to spend less than those in the <65 age groups, and especially if they are on fixed incomes.

              And reason, as mentioned above is expenses keep going up in many different areas such as supermarket prices, gasoline prices for driving, home energy prices, and now the passing on of costs to the final consumer, which means some or many consumers might be feeling the increase in costs.

              Article:

              All of the four components of the survey fell. Among them, consumers' assessment of livelihoods dropped 1.4 points to 35.4, after a 1.8 point decline in January.

              The survey showed a total of 91.7 percent of households expected consumer prices to rise in the year ahead, the highest rate since comparable data became available in April 2013.

              The consumer confidence survey covered 8,400 households, including 2,267 single-member households, with valid responses received from 6,659, or 79.3 percent, of them.

              Ideas:

              Consumer spending in Japan is only about 50 percent of Japan's GDP, which for other advanced economies consumer spending is 60 percent or more. So that extra 10 percent might be the difference between a strong growing economy and an economy that is struggling to grow.

              While exports are usually a strong area of the Japanease economy, an economy can't rely on exports alone to grow. 

              An economy needs a balance between consumer spending, business investment/spending, exports, and sometime government spending as needed to overcome any shortcomings in the other areas.

              An area that needs to be watched very carefully is the weak Japanease yen, which means imports prices are going to continue increase, which means more and more of the import costs are going to be passed on to whomever in the supply chain.

              A weak currency usually helps exporters but it a major problem for importers, especially as Japan is a resource poor country which means Japan has to import a large part of it resources needed.

              And then add in the Ukraine war and maybe import prices are going to become even more expensive in the future.

              Have a nice day and be safe!

              Tuesday, March 1, 2022

              Japan Company Capital Spending:

               Article Source:    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220302/p2g/00m/0bu/021000c

              Article:  

              TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Capital spending by Japanese companies in the October-December period rose 4.3 percent from a year earlier, increasing for the third consecutive quarter, on the back of a recovery from the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, government data showed Wednesday.

                Investment by all nonfinancial sectors for purposes such as building factories and adding equipment totaled 11.6 trillion yen ($101 billion), according to the data released by the Finance Ministry.

                Capital spending increased both on year and from the previous quarter, with exports and output recovering as coronavirus infections remained at low levels in the reporting period, a government official said.

                Ideas:

                More and more economic activity is gaining momemtum as the virus begins to lesson. Even though its beginning to lesson, it can still have an effect in Japan and globally is the situation in Shangahi and the UK.

                But it must be remembered that an economy is very complex meaning even though some parts of the economy is improving doesn't mean all sectors or areas are improving.

                An economy can only grow as fast as the level of sentiment is there. If businesses are feeling better about business conditions and see that future conditions look promising they will continue to spend as needed.

                But if their sentiment begins to waiver then the possiblity of waiting or not spending could have an effect on the ecomomy.

                And now with the Ukraine situation getting worse, which could effect the global economy, Japanese businesses might halt some of their spending for the time being.

                Article:

                "But we will closely watch business trends as the current January-March quarter is seeing a spread of the Omicron variant (of the coronavirus) as well as the Ukraine (crisis.)"

                Capital expenditures by manufacturers climbed 5.1 percent, up for the third straight quarter, to 4.1 trillion yen, led by an increase in the transportation equipment industry as carmakers introduced new models.

                In the nonmanufacturing sector, spending expanded 3.8 percent, rising for the third straight quarter, to 7.5 trillion yen, as a recovery in pandemic-hit restaurants and lodging businesses contributed to the growth.

                Ideas:

                There might be some recovery in the domestic sector of tourism, but there will never be a complete recovery until Japan again opens up to international tourism.

                Even if Japan limits international tourism to most countries except China, which is now going through some omicron challenges, it will go a long way to improving the tourism sector which over the past ten years, before the pandemic became dependent on international tourists.

                International tourists spend a lot of money in Japan, and now with the Japanese yen at a ten year low, it could be a potential boom for the Japanese economy. It would be wise for the Japanese government to begin to open up and there is a lot of money waiting to be spent in Japan with again the Japanese yen at a ten year low.

                The upcomine Golden Week period is going to help a lot bu its still not going to be enough. The big money is in international tourism, and Japan should take advantage of the weak yen and let international tourists back into the country.

                Article:

                During the reporting quarter, economic activities fully resumed in Japan as a COVID-19 state of emergency was lifted on Oct. 1 in all areas. People had been asked to refrain from non-essential outings and eateries were asked to close early under the emergency declaration.

                Pretax profits at companies covered in the ministry's survey rose 24.7 percent to 23.0 trillion yen, increasing for the fourth consecutive quarter, boosted by chemical product manufacturers that saw robust demand for semiconductor parts as well as a recovery in the services sector.

                Sales grew 5.7 percent to 351.0 trillion yen, up for the third quarter in a row, also led by chemical product makers.

                Ideas:

                As demand increases more and more companies are resuming full economic activities which is going to boost the Japanease economy even more. 

                But then again evena as more and more activity increases it doesn't mean all is well. An economy is very complex, and even without the pandemic in market economy there are always some sectors and some businesses that do better than others.

                The services sector still has a long way to go to get back to the pre-pandemic leve. And even if sales improve to the pre-pandemic level soon, there is still the loss of revenue and sales over the 2 year pandemic period that service sector businessees can never cover or make-up.

                It might take years for service sector businesses to recover the 2+ years of losses from the pandemic, if they are sitll in business as many service sector businesses had to close.

                Article:

                Taking into account the latest capital spending figures, the Cabinet Office is scheduled to release revised gross domestic product data for the same quarter on March 9.

                Preliminary GDP data showed the world's third-largest economy grew an annualized real 5.4 percent.

                The ministry surveyed 32,274 companies capitalized at 10 million yen or more, of which 22,272, or 69.0 percent, responded.

                Ideas:

                Whenever the phrase "grew at an annualized ...." means that if it grew like the past quarter or the past year, and grows at the same rate.

                But its just an assumption that the economy will continue to grow at the same rate, which is rarely does as there are bumps a long the way which might slow down the growth of the eonomy.

                For example the Ukraine situation could derail some economic some economic growth in the Japanese economy.

                And lets not for the current inflationary pressures which are hitting profits margins of all companies long with the budgets of families which means there might be less spending in the future.

                Have a nice day and be safe!