Japan Economy:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210813/p2g/00m/0bu/026000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Ninety percent of major Japanese companies expect the country's economy to expand in 2022 on hopes that the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic will subside, a Kyodo News survey showed Thursday.

The survey on 111 companies, including Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Group Corp., also showed companies increasingly joining global efforts to curb greenhouse gases and striving to ensure economic security amid an intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, with a focus on supply chains for chips and energy resources.

The survey found 75 percent of the firms expect moderate economic growth next year, followed by 15 percent that said the world's third-largest economy will expand in 2022.

Ideas:

If the Japanese economy can grow, even a little this year and in 2022 would be good. The virus situation doesn't seem to be decreasing and maybe not even in the early and late fall.

Even with more and more people becoming vaccinated, new variants seem to be popping up everywhere.

The business community maybe has come to realize that greenhouse gases and global warming is real and its a real threat to society and business.

There was a very good article in the BBC talking about the shortage of semiconductors chips. Many industries and supply chains potentially will be affected in the coming months from the supply shortage.

Article:

Five percent said they expect economic conditions to remain unchanged, while no company projected a moderate decline or contraction.

With multiple answers allowed, 93 percent of the firms foreseeing economic expansion said they believe so due to the progress in coronavirus vaccinations, while 83 percent cited the recovery in private consumption and 72 percent pinned hopes on an easing of coronavirus restrictions on economic activities.

Despite the optimistic outlook by the companies, concerns remain over the pandemic going forward, with the government's inoculation campaign remaining slow and the highly contagious Delta variant driving up infection cases nationwide, analysts say.

Ideas:

Yes the progress of the vaccinations is good, but again, even with the increased vaccinations the virus situation doesn't seem to be weakening. If fact, it seems to increasing with the virus variants arriving almost every month.

A real recovery in private consumption or consumer spending might be a ways off, other than a little by little of its improvement each month during the fall. Consumers spending, which make up almost 50 percent of Japan's GPD, never seems to be a full strength.

Exports, has been on an upward slope for the past 6 months or slow, but its possible they could slow if the semiconductor shortage gets any worse.

There have been three recent times that Japanese consumer spending decreased a lot. In April of 2014 when the Japanese sales tax went from five to eight percent, Japanese consumer spending decreased in Q2 of that year. And of course in October 2019 when the sales tax was increased from eight to ten percent, again consumer spending decreased a lot. 

But both times consumer spending bounced back after consumers adapted to the idea of higher prices on products they needed or wanted to buy.

And maybe with the pandemic consumers eventually, will learn to adjust and live with the pandemic as it is and or will learn to be more safe and try to just go about their normal lives, as much as possible in the "new normal" of a pandemic world.

Article:

If the infection situation does not improve as hoped for, recovery of private consumption could be delayed, and supply chains could be disrupted, respondents in the survey said.

As for the current condition of Japan's economy, 56 percent of the companies said it is flat, and 40 percent said it is expanding moderately.

Twenty-six percent of the firms said they expect quarterly sales to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and 16 percent expect any recovery to materialize in 2023 or later.

Ideas:

Most likely the pandemic, in Japan and globally, might not improve any time soon. But at the same time, its always possible that as more and more people become vaccinated, they will just try to, with caution, get back to their pre-pandemic lives as much as possible, which might include more consumer spending.

But at the same time, the pandemic has created major changes in how people live and work. It will be interesting to see how much people go back to what they were doing or how much, before they pandemic.

For example, how many people are going to venture back to eating and drinking out as much as they did before the pandemic. And what about shopping, how many people are going to venture back out to the stores and or buy online as some or many have done during the pandemic.

And how many companies are going to go back to only working in the office or will there continue to be some kind of combination of working from home and working in the office.

Yes, the economy might be flat, but an economy is very complex, and as such there might be some sectors or industries that are flat, some might actually be growing some or even more than some, and of course with the services sector some that are not growing at all.

Article:

But some companies fared well despite the global health crisis, with 16 percent saying sales have already recovered to pre-pandemic levels and 5 percent not seeing any declines in sales.

As the administration of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga promotes efforts to combat climate change, with the target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, 94 percent of the companies said they are taking steps to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Companies polled said they believe it is important to promote energy-saving steps during business activities and set concrete targets on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Ideas:

Yes again, an economy is very complex and every company and every sector doesn't grow equally or in a linear fashion. 

The pandemic has created new opportunities for innovation and growth for some companies and sectors and unfortunately has hurt a lot companies in particular in the services sector.

In a market economy there are always going to be those companies that do better than other companies, its a given as there are always positives and negatives in a market economy.

But the pandemic has created new challenges for many sectors and companies. While as mentioned above, some might have had no decline in sales, while of course unfortunately some sectors might have had major losses in companies have to shutdown or close.

One can only see the images in the news on NHK or any other channel in Japan and see the implications of climate change with the heavy flooding in many places in Japan such as in Shizuoka and recently Fukuoka, and then in the winter the heavy white out or snow bombs that hit some major highway areas in wester Japan, and the Self Defense Forces had to be used to rescue the stranded cars and semis because of the heavy snow.

Energy saving steps are going to take some time and it might be expensive for some companies. But at the same time, innovations, new products, and services related to energy savings are being created quickly. But the real key is how fast can companies adapts and implement every saving features in their companies.

Article: 

Many companies also said they need to protect supply chains to ensure procurement of high-tech parts such as semiconductors as well as energy and mineral resources when the United States and China impose sanctions and export controls on each other.

The Japanese government has also been focusing on enhancing domestic development and production of cutting-edge semiconductors to reduce the country's dependence on foreign manufacturers amid a global chip crunch.

Kyodo News conducted the survey between early July and early August, targeting major companies in each sector.

Ideas:

Probably at this present time, there is no more vulnerable sector, globally, than the supply chains. Unfortunately the China/US trade situation has affected many countries and most likely will continue to do so.

Countries and companies are in a race now to secure as many rare earth minerals as they can, as they are needed for almost every high tech product in the world now, including semiconductor chips which are already suffering a global shortage

Of course the fire in the chip factory in the Tohoku area of Japan didn't help the Japanese chip making sectors or the suppliers of chips.

While the Japanese government is trying to develop the domestic semiconductor it might take a long time until Japan can fully manufacture enough domestic chips so that Japanese companies don't have to rely on chips or parts for chips from China and Taiwan. 

However, its seems these days, using the Apple I phone as an example, it might have parts from many different companies as almost everything and anything that is electronic probably has hundreds of small micro parts that might be from companies that might specialize in one small part that might go into a washing machine, a car, a smartphone, a TV and so on.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Business Sentiment:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210810/p2g/00m/0bu/068000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Business sentiment among workers with jobs sensitive to economic trends in Japan edged up in July for the second straight month of increase after the government's coronavirus state of emergency on 10 prefectures was mostly lifted, official data showed Tuesday.

The diffusion index of confidence in their current conditions compared with three months earlier among "economy watchers," such as taxi drivers and restaurant staff, rose 0.8 point from June to 48.4, according to the Cabinet Office.

Ideas:

Instead of the phrase economic trends, maybe a better phrase might be economic situation. The economic situation, now, in Tokyo and the Kanto area is not so good. The virus situation basically has exploded, again, and of course unfortunately, any workers or companies related to services are not in a good situation.

The services sector of the Japanese economy has now had to endure 18 months of the pandemic. That means 18 months of ups and downs. Some months seem to get a little better and then a new wave hits.

Some months the emergency measures are lowered and economic conditions improve a little and the the pandemic comes back even stronger.

What ever the diffusion index might say, it can see or feel the mindset of the those in the service sector as they have to live through the pandemic everyday every week wondering if they are going to survive and or when is it going to end.

Article:

A reading below 50 indicates that more respondents reported worsening conditions than improving ones. The office polled 2,050 workers from July 25 to 31, of whom 1,841, or 89.8 percent, responded.

A resurgence in COVID-19 infections caused by the highly contagious Delta variant of the virus led to the fourth virus emergency for Tokyo in mid-July, three weeks after the third emergency was lifted for the capital.

Under the virus emergency, people were requested to stay home, and restaurants and bars were asked to stop serving alcohol.

Ideas:

How about the idea of "economy participants" again maybe as better phrase than economy watchers. These workers are not just watching what is happening they are living it everyday so the are economy participants, maybe even for some living from pay check to pay check in the services economy.

The service sector or services economy is now, the largest part of the Japanese economy. Some might consider manufacturing as the "backbone" of the Japanese economy, but its becoming less and less of the overall economy each decade, as is common in most advanced economies.

The 21st century is the not manufacturing century, that was the 20th century. The 21st century is technology and services and manufacturing while very important for any economy is not the major driver now on economic growth.

As has been reported, up to 40 percent of restaurants in the Tokyo entertainment areas have said they are not following the Japanese governments emergency measures of closing early as they say they can't survive as most if not all of their business in at night.

Article:

In July, "the areas under the full-scale virus emergency were limited, and a (less strict) quasi-state of emergency was lifted in some other areas," which led to some improvement in economic activities, a government official told reporters.

The official also said the Tokyo Olympics, which opened on July 23, helped increase spending on items consumed at home, while easing of emergency measures benefited the accommodation sector.

A worker at an amusement park in northeastern Japan was quoted as saying that relatively favorable weather brought many guests during the four-day weekend from July 22, and the park's monthly business performance "recovered to a pre-pandemic level."

Ideas:

Sources in the Tokyo area have said that maybe there is "pandemic fatigue" now, meaning some people are tired of the pandemic and tired of waiting and they want to be out and about. Sources have said they also see some people not even wearing masks now.

Yes, there might have been some improvement in economic activities but its nowhere near where it should be. And yes the Olympics might have spurred increased spending on food eaten at home, as people watched the Olympics and maybe even ordered, for example, pizzas, McDonalds, KFC etc. 

And maybe there might have been an increase in the purchases of large screen TV's and might have also been the case during the 2019 World Rugby Cup in Japan.

I was in Japan during the Rugby World Cup, not for Rugby but for other things, and I watched the Japanese matches, as I was in Japan in both September and October two different times and the atmosphere in Japan was electric meaning you could feel the anticipation and excitement all around you.

Today that time in Japan and the atmosphere seems a world away now.

Article: 

A worker at a restaurant in western Japan voiced expectations that business conditions would become more severe until progress in the government's vaccine program reduces the number of COVID-19 cases.

In addition to Tokyo and Okinawa, emergency measures were reinstated for some prefectures in early August, clouding the economic outlook.

The diffusion index gauging business sentiment for the coming months fell 4.0 points from the previous month to 48.4, down for the first time in three months.

Ideas:

Unfortunately business conditions might not improve for a while. Even as more and more people get vaccinated its seems unfortunately, as seen in other countries those are are vaccinated are still at risk.

Well in the Tokyo area, the Kanto area, the cases don't seem to be decreasing but increasing. As such Japan has a long way to go before the pandemic is under control.

But its same same globally, as many countries, even with their higher vaccination rates, the new virus variants are increasing. 

Again the index can only show an estimate about what people are thinking and not what people are actually going to do. 

Workers and with anyone else can only hope economic conditions will improve. But before that time workers in the services sectors, the hardest hit sector can just try and hang on as with all the businesses in the services sector.

But not to diminish the dangers of the pandemic in any way, again, as sources in Tokyo have said, more and more people are either learning to live with the pandemic situation and or again pandemic fatigue and have just given up worrying about it, and just want to get out and do things like before the pandemic.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan's Current Account:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210810/p2g/00m/0bu/031000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's current account surplus grew 50.3 percent in the first half of 2021 from a year earlier to 10.5 trillion yen ($95 billion), boosted by a remarkable improvement in exports from a slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic, government data showed Tuesday.

Among key components, the goods trade balance marked a 2.3 trillion yen surplus, a turnaround from the previous year's 973.5 billion yen deficit, as exports of cars, auto parts and other items rebounded in line with a strong recovery of the global economy from a pandemic-induced slump in early 2020.

Also lifted by brisk shipments of semiconductor producing equipment amid a global chip crunch, exports soared 22.2 percent to 39.2 trillion yen.

Ideas:

A country's or economy's current account is like the country's bank account. Exports put money into the current account and imports take money out of the account.

Car and auto parts no doubt are the main exports drivers for Japan. Semiconductor equipment can also be seen as an important export, as more and more need semiconductor equipment to offset the global chip shortage.

So there are always positives and negatives in any situation. While the global chip shortage is not good on the other side of the coin it provides an opportunity for others to find ways to benefit from the shortage as the producing and selling of more semiconductor equipment.

And that's how a market economy works. Unfortunately the pandemic has brought too much pain and suffering globally. But at the same time, it has brought new innovations in lifestyles, innovations in new jobs and industries and has forced or motivated some companies to change how they do business to survive.

Article:

Imports expanded 11.6 percent to 36.9 trillion yen on the back of higher materials prices such as nonferrous metals and iron ore, the Finance Ministry said.

The year-on-year rise of 50.3 percent, or 3.5 trillion yen, in the current account surplus for the six-month period was the sharpest increase on a value basis since a 4.8 percent trillion yen jump in the second half of 2015, the ministry said.

The surplus of 10.5 trillion yen in the current account balance, one of the widest gauges of international trade, surpassed the pre-pandemic level of a 10.3 trillion yen surplus in the first half of 2019, the ministry said.

Ideas:

An increase in imports should always be taken with a grain of salt, meaning if the prices or value of imports go up, meaning Japan companies and others have to pay more for something overseas, the actual quantity of imports might not be anymore than before. 

So there is always the value of the imports and the quantity of the imports to be considered.

Whenever a company's costs increase the is the possibility that the company, if they can, will "pass on the costs" to the next company or whomever in the supply chain.

But as has been reported recently companies in Japan are reluctant to pass on the increase in costs because of not so good demand in the economy, whether that is companies buying for companies and or the final consumers buying from companies.

Article:

Meanwhile, the services trade balance, which includes cargo shipping and passenger transportation, registered a 2.1 trillion yen deficit, deteriorating from a 1.9 trillion yen deficit a year ago.

The latest services trade deficit was the worst since 2.3 trillion yen red ink in the latter half of 2012.

The travel surplus of 105.5 billion yen was far below the 1.4 trillion yen and 420.7 billion yen logged in the first-six-month periods of 2019 and 2020, respectively, as many countries kept tight international travel restrictions in place due to the pandemic.

Ideas:

The domestic service sector is not doing so good in Japan and then add in the service sector areas such as shipping and passenger transportation and it looks even worse.

The global travel industry is probably not going to improve that much before the spring of 2022 or even the summer of 2022.

The EU, UK, and the US might be improving their travel options but its a long from perfect, as the new variants everywhere will make travel challenging.

While many countries have higher vaccination rates than Japan, the new variants seem to causing many problems still.

It interesting that 2012 was the last year for a trade deficit. As former Prime Minster Abe right after that made international tourism, or bringing more international tourists to Japan a major part of his plan to grow the economy.

Article:

The travel balance reflects the amount of money foreign visitors spend in Japan versus how much Japanese spend abroad.

"Last year, the impact from the coronavirus on the number of overseas tourists (to Japan) was hardly felt in January before it began to emerge in February. But this year, there have been almost no visitors from the start," a ministry official said.

Primary income, which reflects returns on overseas investments, posted a surplus of 11.4 trillion yen, up 6.6 percent, to log the largest black ink since comparable data became available in 1985, due to an increase in returns on direct overseas investments.

Ideas:

Yes, Abe and the then Japanese government recognized the value of foreign or international tourists coming to Japan as they brought a lot of money into the Japanese economy.

And then, at the time and before the pandemic, all of the tourism related businesses that were created to cater to international tourists, especially those from China.

Before the pandemic, as I traveled to Haneda many times, the lines waiting at the immigration areas were really long. 

But the Japanese immigration waiting area was very smooth and fast, or relatively fast. And I said to myself that Japanese immigration is practicing for when the Tokyo Olympics arrive with the hundreds of thousands of visitors all coming at the same time.

But unfortunately now, all of the those businesses, including all of the hotels, resorts, restaurants, and those in department stores, for example in the Ginza area, who might have worked there because they spoke Chinese and helped the Chinese tourists who came in buses full with their credit cards and cash ready to buy anything, are now mostly likely not working or are assigned to doing something else at the company they are or even were working for.

Its interesting that overseas investments have grown. But one theory or idea is to invest in projects and other types of capital investments when economic conditions are down, and then when economic conditions improve a company is already ahead of the competition who might have waited until economic conditions were better

Article: 

In June alone, the current account surplus increased more than six-fold to 905.1 billion yen from a year earlier, staying in the black for 84 months.

The nation registered a goods trade surplus of 648.5 billion yen, and a services trade deficit of 346.4 billion yen. Primary income logged a surplus of 680.5 billion yen.

Ideas:

While exports alone can't drive an economy, they can, if large enough, can drive or really improve the current account.

But it must be remembered just how much exports and the current account decreased from a year earlier.

But at the same time a six-fold increase is an excellent comeback from the first half of 2020.

The fact that the current account stayed in the black for 84 months is a very good indication just how much in demand that Japan's exports have been.

Again, while exports are a very important part of the economy, they are not the whole economy. It has been estimated that exports only make up about 20 percent of Japan's GPD, while consumer spending makes up about 50 percent of Japan's GDP.

The problem is of course that consumer spending is not what is should be and might not be for the rest of 2021.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Household Spending:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210806/p2g/00m/0bu/024000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's household spending fell a real 5.1 percent in June from a year earlier, as the previous year's consumption was largely supported by a cash handout program and economic resumption after the initial shock of the coronavirus pandemic, government data showed Friday.

Average spending by households with two or more people in real terms was 260,285 yen ($2,370), marking the first decline in four months, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

With the aim of easing the economic fallout from the pandemic, the government started the across-the-board 100,000 yen cash handout per person in May last year, boosting purchases of home appliances and other items the following month, a ministry official told reporters.

Ideas:

Perhaps the cash handout last year was enough to motivate consumers to spend of it it, and the first real lockdown or emergency measures had been lifted.

Consumers also can only be held back so much so in June, the end of spring and the beginning of summer, people were ready, willing, and able to get out and about begin to spend again.

It might be a good idea, if possible, to do another major cash handout program this summer as the pandemic has emerged even stronger than before.

Article:

In 2020, household spending plunged 11.1 percent from a year ago in April and 16.2 percent in May, largely affected by the country's first virus emergency from early April through late May, but the margin of the drop was significantly reduced to 1.2 percent in June as social and economic activities gradually resumed.

Under the first virus emergency, people were asked to stay home and non-essential businesses to suspend operations, dealing a heavy blow to the economy.

In the reporting month, seasonally adjusted spending dropped 3.2 percent from the previous month, down for the second straight month, as the government's third virus emergency continued for Tokyo and some other areas through late June. It followed a 2.1 percent decline in May.

Ideas:

It will be interesting to see just what is going to happen this summer as the pandemic is even stronger.

Are consumers going to stay home, are they  going to spend more online, or are they going to ignore the pandemic, as much as possible, and try to do what they want as much as possible.

A two month drop in consumer spending, down 3.2 percent might seem like a lot, and it is a lot if your business is affected by the decrease in consumers spending in some areas such anything related to the services sector.

But as large as the Japanese economy is a 3.2 percent drop is probably not going to hurt GDP too much. Yes maybe some businesses but not the overall economy.

Article:

By category, outlays for furniture and household utensils plummeted 21.7 percent, with the official saying spending for air conditioners and washing machines was sluggish compared to the previous year when the cash handouts are believed to have prompted more people to buy these items.

Expenditures on transportation and communication were down 5.8 percent, as car purchases remarkably shrank from the previous year, when the government's cash handouts are believed to have boosted them.

Spending on commuter passes also dropped since many students and workers bought them in June last year as schools and workplaces reopened after the emergency.

Ideas:

The cash handouts might have been a good incentive to buy some things that families needed at the time and the cash handout came at the right time to buy some household items.

But the car purchases sometimes you just don't know. For example a family doesn't buy a new car every year. So in the previous year they might have used the cash incentive to help them buy a new car, while this year maybe many didn't need to buy.

It will be interesting to see if there is a surge in large screen TV purchases this summer as families might buy one to use to watch the Olympics, just like maybe in the fall of 2019 maybe some families might have bought a large TV, for example from Yodobashi Camera, to watch the 2019 Rugby World Cup that was in Japan.

Article:

Meanwhile, the official noted many people refrained from going to see doctors last year amid the pandemic, which helped this year's June health care outlays increase 2.7 percent.

The average monthly income of salaried households with at least two people fell a record 11.5 percent in real terms to 904,078 yen in June, down for the second month in a row, mainly due to last year's 100,000 yen cash handouts.

Household spending is a key indicator of private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's gross domestic product.

Ideas:

Its quite possible that Japanese companies also decided to reduce bonuses for this year, for example that might usually be given out during the Golden Week period in May.

And whenever workers receive less money, that might mean they might use less in the economy, which means less economic activity taking place.

Consumer spending is always a concern in Japan, and especially by the Bank of Japan, as it is estimated that consumer spending might be as much as 50 percent of GDP.

But an important point to remember. It seems the Japanese economy, ever since the early 90's has been in one crisis mode or another but it just keeps moving forward, as its seems to be a stable economy despite all of the talk of government debt, low consumer spending, and of course now everything related to the pandemic.

Have a nice day and be safe!

A Brainstorming of Ideas Related to the Olympics? Part 3: Revised.

 As has been reported in many news outlets about the Tokyo Olympics there are many stories related to the kindness athletes are showing one another and its not the stereotype cutthroat atmosphere that some seem to think a competition should be.

You see many pictures in the news and on TV of the kindness athletes are showing to each other. 

Of course maybe its always been that way as the athletes, in any discipline have a special bond that the average person maybe can never see or even feel.

But maybe the pandemic situation has brought out the best in the athletes and they realize its not just about winning a gold medal or any medal at all its about living during this pandemic situation.

Even though winning a medal is probably on the mind and the goal of many of the athletes, when done and said, they might think we made it, we survived, and with all that is happening and happened that is enough.

But of course there will be those in the media, and social media, who disagree who will find ways to criticize someone for not wining a medal.

For example in the women's skateboarding competition on Wednesday one of the Japanese athletes who, at the time, had the most points going into the last skate but had a very bad fall, and so she fell out of medal contention.

So what happened next? The other competitors came to her aid, as she couldn't walk. She was crying of course but the other competitors picked her up and carried her on their shoulders back to where she could recover from the fall. An act of kindness from the other competitors in the competition.

And there have been many more acts of kindness throughout the games, as it should be. 

I watched most of the Judo competition and it seemed after every Judo match the athletes would give each other a hearty hug, and act of kindness saying we both made it even though there can only be one gold medal winner.

In my opinion that is the real Olympics, the athletes coming together, giving their best efforts and in the end congratulating each other for a job well done, regardless of the medal outcome.

Yes, there are those who are going to be upset with not winning, its a given, but the real spirit of the games is in the effort not just winning and losing. 

Many athletes might have had their best effort or best time ever but didn't win a medal. And that is what its about for 90 percent of the athletes at the games.

Extra:

As not everyone is going to win a medal any medal. For example what if Nozomi Tanakai, who set a Japanese national record in the semis in the 1500, runs another national record in the finals but doesn't finish in the medals?

How is she going to feel, how should she feel? Her mother, a famous amateur marathoner, of course mostly like with praise her and give her comfort and encouragement. Her father, her coach will probably do the same. 

But what about the media and what about social media? What are they going to say or do?

I watched many of the events on all of the Japanese channels as I have a subscription for NHK, NTV, Fuji, Asahi, TBS etc. of which all are showing different events.

What I didn't watch or not a lot of it was the Japanese baseball game with a neighboring country, with just the sound on, as I don't like the nationalism and politics behind the situation. 

I'll watch some or all of the Japan/US baseball game on Saturday night, and of course both of the marathons as the marathon is my favorite event. I'll let our friends over at JRN comment on the marathons as they occur.

I used to stay at Toyoko Inn that is across the street from the Yokohama baseball stadium, whenever I was in Yokohama many times before the pandemic.

I've run a lot of morning runs around the stadium and park when I was in Yokohama, along with all over the Minato Mirai area. One November, after my one hour morning run, I came out of the hotel and watched the Yokohama marathon participants run by the stadium and the hotel.

Have a nice day and be safe!

A Brainstorming of Ideas Related to the Olympics? Part 2

 Part 2 related brainstorming and the Tokyo Olympics has taken a while to get going. As I didn't want my own bias or influences too much to be in the blog. 

The plan was to write something almost everyday during the Olympics. And at the same time, there is so much being written about the Olympics I felt it was kind of redundant to write what everyone else has already said.

But never the less, I will add some comments or ideas here related to the Olympics.

As I continue to write about the Japanese economy from outside Japan, it would have been nice to be in Japan to write about it and the Olympics.

After having traveled to Japan on and off for 22+ years before the pandemic I still have a good feel, or a little, about what is going on there.

And as I have contacts there it helps that I constantly talk to them about certain things that are happening.

The idea that maybe the Olympics would or should have been cancelled is probably still in some people's minds. And with good reason as the virus cases continue to increase.

Is it the result of the Olympics with over 90,000 Olympic related visitors? Yes, no, maybe.

But here is an example of maybe not. In a country neighboring Japan, where I am at the virus cases have exploded almost at the same time as the cases have done in Japan, and of course there is not an Olympics taking place, no large infusion of foreigners or travelers into the country.

So we can't say exactly that the Olympics has been the main cause of the virus spikes in Japan.

As we can see in many places around the world the virus variants have exploded.

So what about the Olympics? Well Japan seems to be extremely well. But I am for all the athletes in the Olympics. 

I really am not concerned with who wins, as I want to see everyone have the best performance that they can do. 

That might go against some people's ideas of nationalism and winning medals but for me the Olympics is about the human spirit and someone reaching new heights, as we can see now over and over everyday in the games.

For whatever reason, this Olympics, more than past Olympics, has brought out the best in the Olympians with their out of this world performances in almost every discipline.

Maybe its the delay of one year, maybe its the chance to finally do what they have trained so hard to do, maybe it the new technology in clothes, shoes, and even new training methods, the results have been incredible.

Unfortunately, this Olympics has brought to the forefront the ideas of mental health issues. Of course Osaka, the Japanese tennis player, was the first to openly talk about it or the first that main stream media finally began to take it seriously.

And unfortunately it has always been there, but no one talked about it or thought it was important.

And now with social media the athletes are exposed to even more pressure, from some who have no idea what the Olympics are really about. 

Its unfortunate that some people take the games too seriously. And they are, while some people, and some organizations, and countries might not agree, they are just games, a gathering of the world's best in each discipline to reach new heights never before accomplished.

Have a nice day and be safe out there!

Japan Industrial Output:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210730/p2g/00m/0bu/032000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's industrial output rose 6.2 percent in June from the previous month, surpassing the level before the coronavirus pandemic, buoyed by a recovery in production of autos and semiconductor-making equipment, government data showed Friday.

The seasonally adjusted index of production at factories and mines stood at 99.3 against the 2015 base of 100, above the 99.1 posted in January 2020 and topping the figure for the second time since April this year, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a preliminary report.

Ideas:

The manufacturing industry seems to have recovered compared to the services sector. 

The manufacturing industry most likely is able to control its internal environment a little better than the services sector in that most likely it can limit the number contacts it workers has while in the working environment.

And of course global demand increasing again is very good, along with the idea that maybe in 2020, the buying of new cars was delayed and this year consumers are making up for waiting one year to buy a new car.

Article:

The result followed a downwardly revised 6.5 percent drop in May.

In the reported month, production in the auto industry including vehicles, steering devices and engines surged 22.6 percent from a month earlier, making it the biggest contributor to the index's rise.

"Although the global chip shortage continues to weigh, automakers and related manufacturers increased their production to address a sharp rise in demand," after the sector's May factory activity dropped 19.4 percent, a ministry official said.

Ideas:

There was also May Golden Week, which sometimes can stretch out for an entire week, which means productions facilities might be closed for all or some of that time. As a result a full week of a loss of production which might skew the production numbers.

Again the rise in consumer demand for cars, in Japan and globally, could be nothing more than delayed buying from an year earlier when the pandemic hit, and consumers decided to wait to buy as new car. 

Maybe there were worried about their jobs, a loss or drop in salary and or  didn't want to go out where other people were.

At the same time, last spring, spring 2020, the shipping and logistics sectors were not doing so good. So the shipping of cars maybe even in Japan, and or course globally, might have caused a temporary shortage in some global markets.

Article:

An 8.9 percent increase in production machinery on the back of growing in demand for chip-making equipment also helped push up the output index as a whole.

The ministry maintained the assessment, saying industrial output is "picking up."

Meanwhile, production of transportation equipment excluding motor vehicles declined 7.2 percent in the month.

The index of industrial shipments increased 4.3 percent to 96.3 while that of inventories was up 2.3 percent at 95.9.

Ideas:

As this article shows, the industrial sector is made up of many different areas or parts. And as such, they don't all increase or decrease at the exact same time.

Just like in an economy, which is made up of many different sectors, that don't all increase or decrease at the exact same time or same rate.

Again industrial output might be "picking up" but that doesn't mean every area of industrial output is picking up at the same rate. And economy is complex with many different areas and sectors and they never increase or decrease at the same rate.

Its interesting that there is now demand for chip-making equipment. That suggests that maybe some Japanese companies are innovating and or trying to get into the chip making business because maybe Japanese companies need to diversify their supplies bases and not rely on just one or a few suppliers in the future.

Article:

Based on a poll of manufacturers, the ministry expects output to fall 1.1 percent in July and rise 1.7 percent in August.

"Although there are ups and downs, it is expected that the uptrend will continue." the official said.

But he also pointed to downside risks deriving from the impact of the spread of highly contagious new variants of the coronavirus in Japan and abroad as well as the prolonged shortage of semiconductors on auto production.

Ideas:

And yes in any economy, even without the pandemic there are ups and downs and the manufacturing industry is highly dependent on the demand of consumers/customers, whether that is business to business or business to business to the end customer.

But now the virus situation of course has added some new variables into the mix.

As was seen last spring, it wasn't just a decrease in demand that caused challenges but also challenges in logistics/shipping including container ship challenges and even air freight challenges. 

And in some places challenges in the manufacturing plants too with the covid situation affecting manufacturing workers.

And then you have in supply challenges related to the potential shortage of semiconductor chips or anything else that is in short supply that manufacturers need.

Have a nice day and be safe!