Japan Business Sentiment:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210810/p2g/00m/0bu/068000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Business sentiment among workers with jobs sensitive to economic trends in Japan edged up in July for the second straight month of increase after the government's coronavirus state of emergency on 10 prefectures was mostly lifted, official data showed Tuesday.

The diffusion index of confidence in their current conditions compared with three months earlier among "economy watchers," such as taxi drivers and restaurant staff, rose 0.8 point from June to 48.4, according to the Cabinet Office.

Ideas:

Instead of the phrase economic trends, maybe a better phrase might be economic situation. The economic situation, now, in Tokyo and the Kanto area is not so good. The virus situation basically has exploded, again, and of course unfortunately, any workers or companies related to services are not in a good situation.

The services sector of the Japanese economy has now had to endure 18 months of the pandemic. That means 18 months of ups and downs. Some months seem to get a little better and then a new wave hits.

Some months the emergency measures are lowered and economic conditions improve a little and the the pandemic comes back even stronger.

What ever the diffusion index might say, it can see or feel the mindset of the those in the service sector as they have to live through the pandemic everyday every week wondering if they are going to survive and or when is it going to end.

Article:

A reading below 50 indicates that more respondents reported worsening conditions than improving ones. The office polled 2,050 workers from July 25 to 31, of whom 1,841, or 89.8 percent, responded.

A resurgence in COVID-19 infections caused by the highly contagious Delta variant of the virus led to the fourth virus emergency for Tokyo in mid-July, three weeks after the third emergency was lifted for the capital.

Under the virus emergency, people were requested to stay home, and restaurants and bars were asked to stop serving alcohol.

Ideas:

How about the idea of "economy participants" again maybe as better phrase than economy watchers. These workers are not just watching what is happening they are living it everyday so the are economy participants, maybe even for some living from pay check to pay check in the services economy.

The service sector or services economy is now, the largest part of the Japanese economy. Some might consider manufacturing as the "backbone" of the Japanese economy, but its becoming less and less of the overall economy each decade, as is common in most advanced economies.

The 21st century is the not manufacturing century, that was the 20th century. The 21st century is technology and services and manufacturing while very important for any economy is not the major driver now on economic growth.

As has been reported, up to 40 percent of restaurants in the Tokyo entertainment areas have said they are not following the Japanese governments emergency measures of closing early as they say they can't survive as most if not all of their business in at night.

Article:

In July, "the areas under the full-scale virus emergency were limited, and a (less strict) quasi-state of emergency was lifted in some other areas," which led to some improvement in economic activities, a government official told reporters.

The official also said the Tokyo Olympics, which opened on July 23, helped increase spending on items consumed at home, while easing of emergency measures benefited the accommodation sector.

A worker at an amusement park in northeastern Japan was quoted as saying that relatively favorable weather brought many guests during the four-day weekend from July 22, and the park's monthly business performance "recovered to a pre-pandemic level."

Ideas:

Sources in the Tokyo area have said that maybe there is "pandemic fatigue" now, meaning some people are tired of the pandemic and tired of waiting and they want to be out and about. Sources have said they also see some people not even wearing masks now.

Yes, there might have been some improvement in economic activities but its nowhere near where it should be. And yes the Olympics might have spurred increased spending on food eaten at home, as people watched the Olympics and maybe even ordered, for example, pizzas, McDonalds, KFC etc. 

And maybe there might have been an increase in the purchases of large screen TV's and might have also been the case during the 2019 World Rugby Cup in Japan.

I was in Japan during the Rugby World Cup, not for Rugby but for other things, and I watched the Japanese matches, as I was in Japan in both September and October two different times and the atmosphere in Japan was electric meaning you could feel the anticipation and excitement all around you.

Today that time in Japan and the atmosphere seems a world away now.

Article: 

A worker at a restaurant in western Japan voiced expectations that business conditions would become more severe until progress in the government's vaccine program reduces the number of COVID-19 cases.

In addition to Tokyo and Okinawa, emergency measures were reinstated for some prefectures in early August, clouding the economic outlook.

The diffusion index gauging business sentiment for the coming months fell 4.0 points from the previous month to 48.4, down for the first time in three months.

Ideas:

Unfortunately business conditions might not improve for a while. Even as more and more people get vaccinated its seems unfortunately, as seen in other countries those are are vaccinated are still at risk.

Well in the Tokyo area, the Kanto area, the cases don't seem to be decreasing but increasing. As such Japan has a long way to go before the pandemic is under control.

But its same same globally, as many countries, even with their higher vaccination rates, the new virus variants are increasing. 

Again the index can only show an estimate about what people are thinking and not what people are actually going to do. 

Workers and with anyone else can only hope economic conditions will improve. But before that time workers in the services sectors, the hardest hit sector can just try and hang on as with all the businesses in the services sector.

But not to diminish the dangers of the pandemic in any way, again, as sources in Tokyo have said, more and more people are either learning to live with the pandemic situation and or again pandemic fatigue and have just given up worrying about it, and just want to get out and do things like before the pandemic.

Have a nice day and be safe!