Bank of Japan:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210618/p2g/00m/0bu/038000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The Bank of Japan decided Friday to extend the deadline for its scheme to support corporate funding by six months until next March and maintained its ultraeasy monetary policy as the coronavirus pandemic drags on.

The BOJ, in a surprise move at a two-day policy meeting, decided to launch a new program this year to provide funds to financial institutions for their investments or loans aimed at addressing the issue of climate change. An outline of the new measure will be unveiled at the next policy meeting in July.

To keep borrowing costs low, the Japanese central bank will continue to set short-term interest rates at minus 0.1 percent while guiding 10-year Japanese government bonds at around zero percent.

Ideas:

In the wake of the current situation, with pandemic and the Japanese economy not doing so good, it was probably a good ideas that the Bank of Japan keep the short-term interest at minus 0.1 percent.

And at the same time help financial institutions as sometimes they are forgotten in the BOJ's easy money policy. Sometimes it is forgotten that they too have make a profit to stay in business.

The idea of climate change has finally been realized in Japan as we massive floods, massive white outs, or huge snow storms, the Shizuoka landslide, and the extended heat wave.

Even insurers are now trying to figure out to address the climate change situation.

Article:

It made no change to the pledge to buy exchange-traded funds when needed, with the annual upper limit set at 12 trillion yen ($109 billion).

"Japan's economy has picked up as a trend, although it has remained in a severe situation due to the impact of COVID-19 at home and abroad," the BOJ said in a statement, maintaining its previous assessment.

The BOJ appears to be in no hurry to dial back its crisis-mode monetary stimulus as the economy remains on shaky ground and its 2 percent inflation target is still far off, in stark contrast with the United States and some European countries where concerns about inflation have grown.

Ideas:

Some parts or sectors in the Japanese economy may be picking up but many parts or sectors are still not doing so good.

And economy is very complex, all sectors never grow or change in a linear fashion, as all up or all down. There are always going to be some going up and some not doing so good.

But that is what a market economy is all about. There are always going to be up and downs.

With the pandemic some of the downs are extreme of course and some ups might seem extreme because of some industries are being created or new businesses in an industry are being created to fit the needs and demands of society.

The Bank of Japan, and its goal of  2 percent inflation just doesn't seem to make sense right now as consumer demand is not where it should be at this time.

As the same time, the US, with more of a free spending consumer society, inflation might be a problem in the future. But Japan, while consumer spending is estimated to be around 50 percent of GDP just doesn't have the same spending mindset that US consumers do.

Because of that Japan may never reach the Bank of Japan's goal of 2 percent inflation.

Article:

The U.S. Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that it may start raising interest rates earlier than expected in 2023.

Japan's core consumer price index, excluding volatile fresh food items, rose 0.1 percent in May, marking the first increase in 14 months, government data showed earlier Friday, providing relief to the BOJ.

The pandemic has moved the 2 percent target further away, prompting a fine-tuning of the BOJ's toolkit in March in preparation for longer-than-expected easing. The target is unlikely to be attained even when Kuroda's current term ends in April 2023, according to BOJ projections.

Ideas:

The ideas that the US federal reserve in thinking of raising the interest rate in 2023 might seem like a good time to do it. If they tried to do in the summer of 2021, now, it might be too soon, as the virus situation has started to spiral out of control again.

But even more importantly, the US economy, like all economies is very complex as there are some areas doing much better than other sectors industries.

And there are still millions of people/families that have not been able find jobs that they lost. 

Japan's core consumer price index increase of 0.1 percent is nothing to get excited about, even though its the first increase in 14 months.

No matter what the BOJ tries, as the present time, the 2 percent goal might not be attainable, as Japanese consumer demand is just not there.

Also the services industry is just too far down and until both consumer demand and the services industry improve, the 2 percent goal might be out of reach for now and in the near future.

Article:

The year-on-year change in the core CPI is expected to stay around zero "in the short run" but will gradually rise thereafter, the BOJ said, while acknowledging "high uncertainties" over the consequences and the impact of the pandemic.

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is scheduled to hold a press conference later in the day to explain the central bank's decision.

Climate change has become one of the key topics for central bankers as momentum is building toward decarbonization to help reduce global warming.

Ideas:

Whether short run or long run the core CPI probably won't change much anytime soon. There just isn't enough consumer demand at the present time or in the near long term to change it.

There are still too many uncertainties for sure as the pandemic continues to drag on.

Those businesses, whomever they are, which have been hanging on, hoping for an end in the pandemic, eventually might have to shut or reduce operations even more. Even with the Japanese government subsidies they are receiving it might not sustain them.

Everyone now seems to be thinking about climate change and what to do about it. For example, the EU has come out with even stricter emissions standards and many carmakers around the world are not happy about it. Essentially the EU wants to get rid or gasoline type cars by 2035, if that is the correct date, and carmakers are not happy.

Article:

Japan, under Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, has been sharpening its focus on green growth with its pledge to bring carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by 2050.

"Climate change issues could exert an extremely large impact on developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions from a medium- to long-term perspective," the BOJ said.

Kuroda said earlier that central banks should be flexible in designing policies toward a greener society and the BOJ would explore actions and take necessary steps on climate.

Ideas:

The idea of a greener society now is the major trend everywhere. But it takes new technologies and it takes money to transform a society and an economy, and it takes time.

And at the same time there is going to a lot of resistance to change. Maybe not so much from society itself, as the change might feel gradual to them or even not very noticeable, but any business that is rooted in the carbon style industries such as the coal sectors, the oil sectors, the auto sectors or any other sectors or business is going to resist as long as they can.

Cost in the short term might be too much and as such governments and societies will need to change and try to figure out the best way to transform to a greener society without disrupting the present economy or society too much.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Core Consumer Prices:

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210618/p2g/00m/0bu/026000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's core consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in May from a year earlier, increasing for the first time in 14 months on climbing energy prices, government data showed Friday.

Nationwide core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food items, were boosted by sharper rises in gasoline and kerosene prices on the back of higher crude oil prices, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. The core consumer price index was down 0.1 percent in April.

Among petroleum products, which gained 15.6 percent, gasoline surged 19.8 percent and kerosene jumped 19.0 percent, the data showed.

Ideas:

A 0.1 percent increase in core prices is really not that much, but its always a trend that needs to be watched.

And the idea that any time producers or wholesalers see an increase in their prices, mostly likely they are going to "pass on" the additional costs to the next group, in the logistics chain.

Petroleum prices are very volatile, meaning the increase and decrease easily, so sometimes companies might have a difficult time estimating what their costs will be in the future.

And as the summer gets hotter and hotter, families are not going to be happy staying at home despite the suggestions by the Japanese government to not go out too much. They are going to find relief in big shopping malls and other areas to avoid running their AC's all day and all night.

Article:

Utility bills were down 0.3 percent as there is typically a delay in reflecting crude oil price moves, a ministry official said.

Still, electricity bills' decline of 2.9 percent and city gas prices' fall of 3.7 percent were smaller than their year-earlier drops.

"With a rebound from last year and recent rises in crude oil prices, the impact from the gasoline prices and electricity bills were enough to turn the core CPI positive," a ministry official said.

Ideas:

Yes there is always a delay related to changes in prices either up or down, and when consumers, such as families would begin to see changes in their utility costs.

There is still the idea that maybe many or some companies have their employees working from home, either part of the week or all of the week, so company utility costs might be lower too. 

But then that might increase the costs of home utilities costs. In an economy there are always positives and negatives related to different economic activities such as working from home, higher utility costs or working at the office, lower utility costs at home.

But even if the CPI increase, lets say 0.1 percent, an economy is very complex, and that doesn't mean there was a 0.1 percent increase in prices in all parts of the economy. 

And the idea that it only increase 0.1 percent could mean that there is not as much economic activity in the economy as needed to increase prices to a level where the economy is functioning at a good level.

Article:

Another contributor to the core CPI's rise were housing prices, up 0.6 percent on year, as insurance fees against fire and earthquakes climbed 16.4 percent as many insurance firms raised them this year reflecting increased natural disasters.

Prices of household items such as air conditioners were up as people spent more time at home amid the coronavirus pandemic, with durable goods gaining 2.3 percent.

Ideas:

if insurance fee are included in housing prices, instead of being a separate item, then its understandable why housing price might be increasing.

Japan, every year seems to be experiencing more and more natural disasters or situations. The severe flooding in the southern part of the country, the flooding in the Atami, Shizuoka, the heavy snow damage in the Nagano area last winter and so on, just to name a a few, not to mention the 2019 typhoons that hit the Chiba area.

I talked to an insurance person in Japan recently and they are also trying to figure out what to do about global warming as this is now part of the insurance industries strategies to try and figure out how to handle the global warming situation.

Yes, air conditioners no doubt are probably big sellers right now. And maybe even big screen TV's and the Olympics are now on. I wonder how many families have visited Yodobashi Camera, a large electronics store to see all of the big screen TV's on sale, or just bought one online.

Article:

Meanwhile, mobile phone fees slumped 27.9 percent, continuing their downward trend after major carriers cut data usage fees in response to government pressure.

So-called core-core consumer prices, excluding fresh food and energy items, fell 0.2 percent in May from a year earlier for the second straight month of decline.

Ideas:

Mobile phone fees, most likely, are too high, unless the government puts some kind of limit or price controls or a price ceiling on the fees as a way to either help consumers and or keep the market as competitive as possible, forcing major carriers to find ways to compete beside just having high prices.

And there is Rakuten and its entry in the mobile phone fee market which claims to offer lower prices. 

But for every economic situation there might be some positives and negatives, so it will be interesting to see if the major carriers find ways to keep their profit margins the same, for example now charging higher prices to buy the phone besides the monthly fees for the service.

Core consumer prices are always a major concern for the Bank of Japan as it is still concerned with getting inflation to the 2.0 percent level. But that might not happen anytime soon as long as consumers are being told to stay at home and not go out. 

Consumers can buy only so much online before they want and need to be out and about and yes even using money in the economy.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan May Exports:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210616/p2g/00m/0bu/022000c

Article

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's exports in May jumped 49.6 percent from a year ago to post the sharpest rise in over four decades, with their rebound from a coronavirus pandemic-induced downturn driven by solid demand for cars and auto parts, government data showed Wednesday.

Exports of goods surged to 6.26 trillion yen ($57 billion) in the reporting month, increasing at the fastest pace since a record 51.4 percent leap was logged in April 1980, according to the preliminary data released by the Finance Ministry, which began compiling the statistics in January 1979.

Ideas:

This is of course is very good. But we need to remember, it is year to year measurement. 

Because of the not so good spring 2020, it makes the May percent seem really big. The key word is "increasing at the fastest pace." This does not mean overall amount but value which is much different.

While its very good that exports rebounded by a large amount, it also reminds us just how bad the spring 2020 was, not just in Japan but globally.

Article:

After expanding 16.1 percent in March and 38.0 percent in April, exports grew for the third consecutive month, partly in reaction to a 28.3 percent year-on-year fall seen in May last year due to the initial shock of the pandemic that pushed down global demand and disrupted supply chains.

Exports of both cars and auto parts more than doubled, up 135.5 percent and 139.1 percent from a year earlier, respectively. Demand for the auto-related Japanese products was strong especially from the United States, a ministry official told reporters.

Ideas:

There could be several reasons why exports increase a lot over three months from last year.

The first of course being the huge decrease in demand globally because of the pandemic.

Another reason might be related to a collapse of the logistics and supplies chains which might have disrupted production at manufacturing plants.

The companies might not have been able to produce the products as needed and or they didn't have the needed intermediary parts needed to product the final products.

And the other reason might have been the spread of the virus in many different businesses especially manufacturing facilities.

For example, in the meat packing plants in the US during that time and after, many of the workers in the plants contacted the virus and the plants had to shut down for an unspecified amount of time.

As such the logistics and supply chains related to those companies were also affected, and even more the supermarkets and other places that sold the meat products suffered supply shortage problems.

So most likely the same things could have happened with the auto industry in Japan.

Article:

Imports also saw a remarkable rise of 27.9 percent to 6.45 trillion yen, up for the fourth straight month following a 12.8 percent boost in April, due to a recovery of domestic consumption and rebound in crude oil prices.

The country's goods trade balance with the rest of the world came to a deficit of 187.15 billion yen, the first red ink in four months.

Ideas:

And again part of the reason for the increase in imports might have been the continued improvement in logistics and supplies chains as they have mostly now gotten back to normal from the disaster of the spring 2020 period.

And of course maybe consumer demand has increased somewhat but probably not back to the pre-pandemic level as many consumers might still be concerned about the future and jobs.

A rebound in crude oil prices usually just means the value of the commodity has gone up, which would increase the overall value of the total imports, not necessarily the volume of the imports. 

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Business Watcher Sentiment.

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210608/p2g/00m/0bu/058000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Business sentiment among workers with jobs sensitive to economic trends in Japan deteriorated in May for the second straight month, as areas under the government's coronavirus state of emergency were expanded, official data showed Tuesday.

The diffusion index of confidence in their current conditions compared with three months earlier among "economy watchers," such as taxi drivers and restaurant staff, fell 1.0 point from April to 38.1, according to the Cabinet Office.

A reading above 50 indicates that more respondents feel conditions are improving rather than worsening.

Ideas:

Business sentiment among service sectors workers mostly likely are not going to feel good for a while as the the virus situation, as of this blog writing, continues to get worse.

While there might be a lot of people moving around Tokyo, that doesn't mean they are spending, or spending a a level to that the services sector that begin to feel good about the economy.

And index is just a number. While the objective it to try and get some kind of feel or assessment to might be going on, its just a number.

And even within the services sector, there are many parts of the services, and even among those who are considered economy watchers, or those with jobs sensitive to economic trends, there are many parts, some might be doing good, while most likely many are not.

Article:

The country's third state of emergency, which initially targeted Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka and Hyogo from April 25 to May 11, has been repeatedly extended following the spread of highly contagious virus variants and now covers 10 prefectures, with the end date set at June 20.

The office polled 2,050 workers from May 25 to 31, of whom 1,831, or 89.3 percent, responded.

"Sectors such as dining establishments and other service providers were greatly affected by the extension and expansion of the virus emergency," a government official told reporters.

Ideas:

Yes, restaurants are still not doing to good and they might not for a while, if even again, at least some of them.

There has been a major shift in how consumers spend their money on food and groceries, which includes going to restaurants.

Whenever the pandemic ends, whenever, there might be a return, somewhat, to dinner business meetings, or workers in the same companies eating dinner after work, or going to bars and Hofs to drink after work.

But most  likely there is going to be less and less of that, as workers, families, consumers have shifted their spending behavior to more takeout orders or delivery orders, and or course eating at home more.

At the same time, maybe more and more workers are going have a flexible work schedule meaning they are not going to eat out as much as they used to before the pandemic.

As with any economic or society situation such as the pandemic, new businesses have been created and new ways of delivering products and services have been created, which most likely after the pandemic lessons will continue to grow and survive. Maybe not all of them but many. 

Not everyone is going to use Uber Eats for take out  as more and more delivery service companies are being created.

At the same time, unfortunately, there will be some restaurants that might not survive, as their core customers might decide not to return, or not enough of them are going to return for the business to survive.

Article:

Under the current virus emergency, people are asked to stay at home, and restaurants and bars serving alcohol to suspend operations. Dining establishments not offering liquor are told to close early.

A department store worker in the Chugoku region in western Japan was quoted as saying that the store was requested to close on weekends and to sell only food and cosmetics under the virus emergency, with sales and weekday visitor numbers "sharply decreasing."

The office maintained its assessment, saying the economy has shown "some weakness in its recovery." The evaluation was downgraded in the previous month.

Ideas:

Yes, many people/consumers are going to stay home, some because they don't feel safe going out, some because its become their new lifestyle, and some because maybe they can't afford to eat out that much anymore or now.

Regarding the department store closing on the weekend and shopper decreasing on the weekdays. If they haven't already, if they can, and why not, develop an online presence in order to keep or maintain as many customers as possible. And again if they haven't already provide home delivery services along with the online services. It seems logical to do, and if a department hasn't they could be losing some customers to those who have done it already.

There are going to be many weaknesses in the Japanese economy that are going to take some time to recover. All sectors in an economy don't grow in a linear fashion, and as such some have a will recovery much faster such as exports and some parts are going to take a long time to recover, such as parts of the services sector.

Article:

Still, respondents were optimistic about the outlook, with the diffusion index gauging business sentiment regarding the coming months rising 5.9 points to 47.6, the first increase in three months.

A convenience store clerk in the southwestern region of Kyushu expected an economic recovery after more people get vaccinated and the spread of the virus subsides, expressing hope that demand will increase for drinking at home during the Tokyo Olympics starting next month.

Ideas:

Yes, there is always optimism that the Japanese economy will recover and grow, but not at the same time.

And yes, as more and more people get vaccinated, that will give them more confidence, to get out and about and start spending more.

However, as of this writing the pandemic situation has not improved. But there is the idea of pandemic fatigue, meaning after 18 months maybe people are just going to get tired of the pandemic, as much as they can, and just get out more and more and try to return to life as it was before the pandemic. 

Unfortunately, over the past 18 months there have been too many up and downs. Just when everyone begins to think there is light at the end of the tunnel, some happens, such as more and more cases in Tokyo that seem to dim that light.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Q1:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210608/p2g/00m/0bu/027000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's economy in the January-March period shrank a real 1.0 percent from the previous quarter, or an annualized 3.9 percent, upgraded from a preliminary 5.1 percent annualized contraction, reflecting stronger-than-expected public demand, the government said Tuesday.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the country's real gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services produced in the country adjusted for inflation, decreased for the first time in three quarters, according to the Cabinet Office, largely affected by the nation's second state of emergency over the coronavirus pandemic.

Ideas:

The continued pandemic is showing the Japanese economy has a long way to go before it is can maintain any kind of momentum.

As new emergency measures are put into place, the economy backtracks from any momentum might have gained.

And as of this writing related to this article, the pandemic in Japan has only gotten worse. As a result, there might be a decrease in economic activity in Q 3.

But then the Olympics will be in full operation and that might just might save the Japanese economy in Q 3.

Article:

During the reporting period, the government declared a state of emergency in 11 of Japan's prefectures including the Tokyo metropolitan area, requesting people to stay at home and restaurants and bars to close earlier.

The contraction came after the world's third-largest economy expanded by double-digit percentages on an annualized basis for two consecutive quarters with the resumption of economic activities, after the first virus emergency in spring 2020 brought about a record 28.6 percent plunge in the second quarter last year.

Ideas:

There are two or three ideas here to think about. The first being, in the spring of 2020, no really knew what was going on and as such people and businesses were following the government's orders to stay home, work from home etc. Along with the fact that some economy had become constrained due to logistics challenges, less consumer demand, and of course less or no international tourism.

The second being despite the contraction in the spring of 2020, the Japanese economy was able to come back strong with double-digit growth after a dismal spring or Q2. No economy can be kept down too long since there is always potential for economic activity. An economy is made up of people and of course businesses which are people, and people want to be out and about always doing things, as people are not just creatures to sit in their homes forever, they need to be creative and to channel that creativity in some way such as creating a business or working in a business.

The third idea is consumers need to be out and about. Yes there needs to be a balance of savings and spending, but spending in an economy is just as important as businesses creating jobs, making products, exporting products and such. 

Article:

The latest figure was better than the average forecast of an annualized 4.9 percent shrinkage by eight private-sector economists polled by Kyodo News.

On a quarterly basis, government spending dropped 1.1 percent and public investment decreased 0.5 percent, revised upwardly from preliminary declines of 1.8 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.

The upward revisions reflect latest statistics showing higher-than-expected medical care costs and the value of public construction work, a government official said.

Ideas;

If we can do back to some Keynesian ideas, anytime the economy begins to falter, such as when business investment is down, or continues to stay down, and when consumer spending is down, and continues to stay down, the thinking is that government spending should step, temporarily, and make up the difference the best they can with increase government spending.

In this continued pandemic it would seem logical the the Japanese government would increase its spending as a way to keep the economy going. A decrease public investment doesn't seem like that is happening.

Public construction work has always been a mainstay of the Japanese government to boost the economy in times past. Maybe the Japanese government can't find any more free space to build bridges to nowhere or roads to nowhere etc.

The increase in medical care costs is not a surprise as the pandemic continues on.

Article:

The revision for the reporting quarter left the real GDP contraction in fiscal 2020 through March unchanged at the preliminary 4.6 percent.

Down for a second straight year, it was the sharpest annual shrinkage since data became available in fiscal 1955, exceeding the 3.6 percent fall in fiscal 2008 logged in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Nominal GDP, not adjusted for inflation, dropped 1.3 percent, or an annualized 5.1 percent, in the first quarter of 2021, revised upwardly from the 6.3 percent annualized decrease initially reported on May 18.

Ideas:

While the contraction is not good news, but also not unexpected. However, it should always be remembered that an economy is very complex. There are many parts to an economy, and not just the idea of consumer spending, business spending/investment, government spending and then exports minus imports as related to what GDP is.

For example Japanese exports seem to be doing just fine or even very good, but other parts of the economy are not doing so good. And it shows, while exports might be an important part of the Japanese economy, an increase or even a record increase in Japanese exports are unable to carry the economy or keep the GDP from contracting.

Manufacturing and exports still account for a large part of the economy but the Japanese economy, like all advanced economies have evolved into mostly service based economies.

And even more into a consumer spending economy, which some estimate to be as much as 50 percent of the Japanese economy.

But during the pandemic the one part that is really suffering is the services sector, or many parts of the services sector of the Japanese economy.

Long gone are the days of Japanese government public spending projects, while sometimes good, and the big manufacturing companies with their global export power being able to lead the economy.

Those days are long gone as Japan has grown into a fully advanced economy focused on services and even more on technology and services.

Connected to services is consumer spending which has been up and down since the pandemic began.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Economy: Wages and Consumer Spending

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210605/p2g/00m/0na/016000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's wage growth has slowed to levels last seen in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis as companies have taken a hit from the coronavirus pandemic.

Major companies have agreed on an average pay hike of 1.82 percent in this year's annual spring wage negotiations, falling below 2 percent for the time since 2013, according to data released by the Japan Business Federation. The final results are due out in July.

Tepid wage growth is seen as a drag on consumption, which makes up the bulk of the economy. This time, economists are keeping an eye on the role that "forced savings," or money that households have been forced to save due to pandemic-caused restrictions, will play.

Ideas:

Its not surprising that the average pay hike is only 1.82 with the pandemic still strong and company sales or earning not where they should be or expected.

Tepid, weak, or low wage growth can easily be seen as a challenge for consumer spending.

Employees are consumers, and the more they feel good about their wages the more they might use in the economy.

With the right balance, some will be used on the the basics for any family or individual, some will be saved and some depending on how much is left, called disposable income, will be used on other things in the economy.

Its the disposable income that is the most challenging, and the basics are taken care of first, then, maybe saving and the extra.

And then there is the idea of how consumes feel about the future. If they good about the future and their jobs, they might use more of it in the economy. If not they might save more of it and wait until they do feel good about what is happening. Of course this might be the "forced savings" as the future might not look so good to they think they need to save more instead of using it in the economy.

Article:

"Wage growth is seen falling below 2 percent and this will add downward pressure on consumption," said Naoko Ogata, senior economist at Japan Research Institute.

"Under normal times, people tend to cut back on spending as income falls," Ogata said. "What's different this time is that they have money at their disposal, but they can't spend it amid the pandemic."

She estimates that the pandemic has forced Japanese households to save about 13 trillion yen ($118 billion), or roughly 4 percent of Japan's annual consumption.

Ideas:

Yes, most likely as employees, workers, consumers see or have less disposable income they might decide to spend less.

With all due respect,  I suggest that not everyone has money at their disposal. There are still large groups or even sectors not doing so good. So the idea that everyone has the same amount of disposable to use might be exactly correct.

But of course there is a lot of pent-up demand, meaning a lot of things people want to do things such as travel and do things but the pandemic as limited those activities at the moment.

So yes, the savings rate most likely has gone up for certain groups during the pandemic, but what about for the groups or sectors in the services area, where the pandemic has hit the hardest. 

How much have these groups been able save when they might have have lost their jobs, had their wages cut, even lost their businesses.

All sectors are not affected the same in the economy, and as such, some might be fine in the pandemic while some are not doing so good.

Article:

Such savings increased as people canceled vacation plans or leisure activities due to the COVID-19 crisis.

The Bank of Japan, which counts on a virtuous cycle of wage growth spurring private consumption, puts such forced savings at 20 trillion yen last year.

Some of the disposable income that could have been spent on leisure or other activities had it not been for the pandemic was apparently spent on other items like durable goods.

Ideas:

So yes, while some of the disposable income might have been saved some of it might have been used in other parts of the economy, such as spending on durable goods.

As has been reported in other articles some in the upper income groups have used their extra disposable income to buy foreign cars, instead of using it to take trips to places like Europe.

Pent up demand or even pent up activities means people can only sustain not doing something for so long, so they are going to find other things to spend their money on, such as things maybe they normally wouldn't buy and or things they hadn't really wanted or considered to buy at this time, but felt now might be the best time to buy it.

Article:

As people spend more time at home, sales of durable goods have been robust, lifting shipments of white goods in fiscal 2020 to 2.61 trillion yen, its highest in a quarter of a century, according to data by the Japan Electrical Manufacturers' Association.

Still, economists say uncertainty over the outlook has largely kept many households frugal.

The pandemic has boosted the use of e-commerce and "group buying," or purchasing items at a discount with multiple people on social media.

Ideas:

Its natural that sales of durable good and other items used in homes have increased. Even though it might be known yet, the sales of air conditioners might be a big seller this summer as the the pandemic continues on with another hot summer ahead.

Add the Tokyo Olympics and there might be more sales of large screen TV's at the same time.

And of course, as people might spend less time in Yodobashi Camera or maybe just browse the big screen TV's as I've done then they might order it online or just order it there and have it delivered to their home.

And no doubt, as people/consumers are hesitant to go out as much they would begin to spend more online.

Even the idea of buying online from supermarkets for food has now become common or popular as some supermarkets have now increased their presence online to make sure they don't lose customers. Some have either started to use delivery services or provided their own delivery service.

It has even been reported that maybe 7/11 has begun delivery services for online purchases.

Article:

Beer topped the list of best-selling items in 2020, and a total of 190 people formed a group to buy sweet roasted chestnuts at around a 70 percent discount, according to the operator of the Kauche app.

With a third state of emergency in place over COVID-19, Japan's economy faces the risk of falling into a technical recession, two straight quarters of negative growth, in the April-June period.

Much depends on how fast the rollout of vaccines will proceed in Japan, which would unleash what economists call "pent-up" demand.

Ideas:

Large group purchases, or group buying, might a strategy for companies to make sure they can get a certain level of sales, even if they have to lose some in giving discounts.

And just maybe this was an innovation, like many innovations, that might have been created due to the pandemic or would have been created anyway over time.

There is no doubt, with the pandemic not going away anytime to soon, the Japanese economy is not where it should be.

As far as technical recession, it has to be remembered that an economy is very complex. There are always some parts of an economy that do better than other parts of an economy.

So a technical recession, in itself is not good, it doesn't mean the entire economy is doing bad, but at the same time, there are still sectors, such as the services sector area, especially those related to restaurants, hotels, airlines, tourism businesses that are not doing so good, and might not get back to some kind of normal for a long time.

The vaccine situation might be improving, which is good, but the new virus situation has just grown again, and as other article comments come later, the virus situation now is at an all time high in Tokyo.

Article:

As "COVID-19 subsides, households may withdraw some of their 'forced savings,' and this may push up private consumption," the BOJ said in its outlook report.

Ogata said the near-term impact of pent-up demand may be larger than that of slowing wage growth.

"Demand from people who think 'I want to do this when the COVID situation subsides' is strong," she said.

Ideas:

Not to get to ahead of this article, as it is being written a little later than published, the pandemic is not subsiding in Japan, in fact the opposite has happened. 

But it would be good if households started to use a little more of their forced savings in the economy.

Actually the two might go together or have kind of a synergy affect. Slow wage growth might increase pent up demand and as such lower consumer spending. But the opposite can happen too course. As wages begin to increase that might be an incentive for consumers to begin to spend more in the economy.,

But at the same time, eventually consumers might begin to "just be tired" of doing nothing, so to speak begin to spend anyways on thing they want. 

Human nature being human nature consumers want to be out and about. Pent up demand can only last so long before people/consumers just get tired of it and what to go out and do things which mostly likely require the spending of money.

Have a nice day and be safe!