Japan Business Watcher Sentiment.

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210608/p2g/00m/0bu/058000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Business sentiment among workers with jobs sensitive to economic trends in Japan deteriorated in May for the second straight month, as areas under the government's coronavirus state of emergency were expanded, official data showed Tuesday.

The diffusion index of confidence in their current conditions compared with three months earlier among "economy watchers," such as taxi drivers and restaurant staff, fell 1.0 point from April to 38.1, according to the Cabinet Office.

A reading above 50 indicates that more respondents feel conditions are improving rather than worsening.

Ideas:

Business sentiment among service sectors workers mostly likely are not going to feel good for a while as the the virus situation, as of this blog writing, continues to get worse.

While there might be a lot of people moving around Tokyo, that doesn't mean they are spending, or spending a a level to that the services sector that begin to feel good about the economy.

And index is just a number. While the objective it to try and get some kind of feel or assessment to might be going on, its just a number.

And even within the services sector, there are many parts of the services, and even among those who are considered economy watchers, or those with jobs sensitive to economic trends, there are many parts, some might be doing good, while most likely many are not.

Article:

The country's third state of emergency, which initially targeted Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka and Hyogo from April 25 to May 11, has been repeatedly extended following the spread of highly contagious virus variants and now covers 10 prefectures, with the end date set at June 20.

The office polled 2,050 workers from May 25 to 31, of whom 1,831, or 89.3 percent, responded.

"Sectors such as dining establishments and other service providers were greatly affected by the extension and expansion of the virus emergency," a government official told reporters.

Ideas:

Yes, restaurants are still not doing to good and they might not for a while, if even again, at least some of them.

There has been a major shift in how consumers spend their money on food and groceries, which includes going to restaurants.

Whenever the pandemic ends, whenever, there might be a return, somewhat, to dinner business meetings, or workers in the same companies eating dinner after work, or going to bars and Hofs to drink after work.

But most  likely there is going to be less and less of that, as workers, families, consumers have shifted their spending behavior to more takeout orders or delivery orders, and or course eating at home more.

At the same time, maybe more and more workers are going have a flexible work schedule meaning they are not going to eat out as much as they used to before the pandemic.

As with any economic or society situation such as the pandemic, new businesses have been created and new ways of delivering products and services have been created, which most likely after the pandemic lessons will continue to grow and survive. Maybe not all of them but many. 

Not everyone is going to use Uber Eats for take out  as more and more delivery service companies are being created.

At the same time, unfortunately, there will be some restaurants that might not survive, as their core customers might decide not to return, or not enough of them are going to return for the business to survive.

Article:

Under the current virus emergency, people are asked to stay at home, and restaurants and bars serving alcohol to suspend operations. Dining establishments not offering liquor are told to close early.

A department store worker in the Chugoku region in western Japan was quoted as saying that the store was requested to close on weekends and to sell only food and cosmetics under the virus emergency, with sales and weekday visitor numbers "sharply decreasing."

The office maintained its assessment, saying the economy has shown "some weakness in its recovery." The evaluation was downgraded in the previous month.

Ideas:

Yes, many people/consumers are going to stay home, some because they don't feel safe going out, some because its become their new lifestyle, and some because maybe they can't afford to eat out that much anymore or now.

Regarding the department store closing on the weekend and shopper decreasing on the weekdays. If they haven't already, if they can, and why not, develop an online presence in order to keep or maintain as many customers as possible. And again if they haven't already provide home delivery services along with the online services. It seems logical to do, and if a department hasn't they could be losing some customers to those who have done it already.

There are going to be many weaknesses in the Japanese economy that are going to take some time to recover. All sectors in an economy don't grow in a linear fashion, and as such some have a will recovery much faster such as exports and some parts are going to take a long time to recover, such as parts of the services sector.

Article:

Still, respondents were optimistic about the outlook, with the diffusion index gauging business sentiment regarding the coming months rising 5.9 points to 47.6, the first increase in three months.

A convenience store clerk in the southwestern region of Kyushu expected an economic recovery after more people get vaccinated and the spread of the virus subsides, expressing hope that demand will increase for drinking at home during the Tokyo Olympics starting next month.

Ideas:

Yes, there is always optimism that the Japanese economy will recover and grow, but not at the same time.

And yes, as more and more people get vaccinated, that will give them more confidence, to get out and about and start spending more.

However, as of this writing the pandemic situation has not improved. But there is the idea of pandemic fatigue, meaning after 18 months maybe people are just going to get tired of the pandemic, as much as they can, and just get out more and more and try to return to life as it was before the pandemic. 

Unfortunately, over the past 18 months there have been too many up and downs. Just when everyone begins to think there is light at the end of the tunnel, some happens, such as more and more cases in Tokyo that seem to dim that light.

Have a nice day and be safe!