BOJ and Wage Trend: Updated Sept. 19, 2025.

BOJ to release wage trend data from 2027 in Tankan survey

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250911/p2g/00m/0bu/046000c

Ideas

It seems there are already a lot of surveys related to all kinds of activities in Japan by almost every organization conceivable but I guess the Bank of Japan wants its own survey to feel most secure and reliable about the wage data.

It's possible, but not conceivable, that the surveys coming from the labor and company organizations could be slightly off or are padded to make the wage information look better than it really is. 

For example, as wages for small and mid-size companies are always a little suspect as they are less than large company salary increases they could be made to look better as way to show that that companies are increasing wages which a lot when reality it might not be that much of a wage increase.

Yes, not all companies cooperate in surveys as they might feel embarrassed with the wage increases they are giving their workers and or want or need to be secretive about their wages for competitive reasons.

At the same time it might not be easy to get some companies to cooperate as they might not have the resources needed to reply to a survey from an organization.

It's the small and mid-size companies that need to most help with wage increases and it would be in their best interest to cooperate so that government organizations can plan ways to help them, otherwise government and other organizations are in the dark about small and mid-size companies situations.

Data information is good and needed but will it influence companies to increase wages which is sorely needed in Japan to help the economy grow and combat continued inflation.

If other companies see that wages are increasing the might be less hesitant to increase wages for their employees too.

But at the same time, some or many small and mid-size companies just don't have the resources needed to match what other companies are doing.

And with there being a real labor shortage in Japan now some might want to increase wages to keep or get new employees but they just don't have the resources needed to do it.

The June survey and the December survey goals seem very good but what's to keep some companies from not giving the correct information as a way to look good in the eyes of the BOJ.

There is always a chance, as with any survey, that the survey participants will not fully comply with the survey and will make it look better for them.

Small firms are always having difficulty with keeping up with bigger ones and its not just in Japan its a global situation as the large companies, globally always have more resources than the smaller companies.

But maybe in Japan its even more pronounced as their is always a huge gap between the haves, the large companies, and the have nots, the small and mid-size companies due to a huge gap in resources.

The tariff situation is definitely going to affect Japanese companies, which ultimately will affect Japanese consumers but when will it really be seen. It could begin September or the 3rd quarter as the new tariff rates go into effect.

And then there is the Bank of Japan having to decide what do to as the US Federal Reserve just cut its rate, due the US economy slowing and job growth really slowing which means whenever the US reserve cuts or increases it rate central banks globally begin to look and decide if they will follow with a rate cut just not at this time.

And yes, inflation in Japan is above the 2 percent goal for inflation in Japan, which  is actually the goal of many central banks to keep inflation around 2 percent as they feel its a manageable level and shows an economy is moving enough for economic growth but not too much.

Have a nice day!