Friday, May 22, 2020

Mainichi: Japan Dept. Stores Sales:

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200522/p2g/00m/0bu/104000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's department store sales in April fell 72.8 percent on a same-store basis from a year earlier, the largest monthly decline since comparable data became available in 1965, as government measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic forced many stores to reduce operations or temporarily shut, an industry body said Friday.
    Interim data in May suggest an even steeper fall is possible in the month with sales in the first 18 days down around 85 percent, the Japan Department Stores Association said, although some recovery is likely in the latter half of the month after the government lifted the state of emergency for 39 of the nation's 47 prefectures on May 14.
    Sales of 203 stores run by 73 operators totaled 120.8 billion yen ($1.1 billion) in the seventh consecutive monthly fall, the association said.
    Ideas:
    Its no surprise that there was decrease in sales for April. If we look at all the possible activities taking place since 1965 there wasn't anything even close that would have hurt sales as much as this. Not even the so called "lost decade", which really wasn't a lost decade was like this. 
    What might be interesting if and when the Japan Department Stores Association comes out with any information or data related to online sales of department stores. 
    Most likely there might be a slight increase in online sales, but not that much as consumers most likely are refrained from any consumer spending except for only the most essential items which a consumer could get at a pharmacy, grocery store or conbini.
    Yes,there should be some recovery in May but of course it won't be anything near the normal level of consumer spending. Even most likely for the last 12/13 day of the month of May.
    Most likely consumer spending, when it returns to some level, will enter a "new normal" level of consumer spending for the rest of the year.
    Also we can except more months of below normal consumer spending and eventually reaching what might be again a "new normal" level of consumer spending.
    Article:
    Duty-free sales dropped 98.5 percent on a same-store basis to about 500 million yen as the number of customers tumbled 99.5 percent for a third straight monthly fall to just 2,400 due to cross-border travel restrictions in and outside Japan to curb the deadly virus infections.
    By product, sales of clothing and miscellaneous products such as cosmetics and jewelry fell 82.7 percent and 78.7 percent, respectively.
    Those of food items sagged 53.0 percent, a comparatively milder decline than most other items, as many stores kept their grocery floors open.
    Ideas:
    Of course Duty-free sales would have had a large decrease as there were no international tourists, such as the large number of Chinese tourists that would buy the bulk of the Duty-free products. 
    Sales, cosmetics, jewelry are items too are not a surprise in falling sales. But usually cosmetics, for a very long time, were kind of "recession" proof as women, mostly, would still buy cosmetics despite any downturn in the economy. But this situation is much different of course. 
    A 53.0 percent decrease in food items, while not a surprise, is kind of a surprise. If many stores kept their grocery floors open, perhaps consumers were limiting the number of times they went to the grocery store to avoid large crowds.
    As case in point is in Yokohama at Yokohama eki, station, with department stores such as Sogo and Mitsukoshi having large grocery floors. 
    Whenever I would go to Sogo, the entrance and all areas near it were extremely crowded. And the grocery area in the back, but close to the entrance was always crowded and busy. As such customers maybe felt they wanted to avoid large crowds that are common at Sogo.
    The same can be said for a small grocery store across from the Sony Plaza store in the basement area of Yokohama eki. Anytime I went there, just to admire all of the fresh food and bento offerings it was very busy.
    Another case in point was 2019 Christmas eve, I went to a bread store near the grocery store, and with tradition, the grocery store was selling bento type roasted chickens for Christmas eve. 
    And not to be out done by the grocery stores, in the walking areas of the station, there were many tables setup selling bento type roasted chicken. And lets not forget KFC which also was selling its chicken too. 
    Have a nice day and stay safe!

    Thursday, May 21, 2020

    BBC: Health and Wellness: How about Japan?

    https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200520-can-the-centenarian-olympics-help-you-live-longer

    Ideas:

    This is an excellent article about longevity, health, and exercise in some western countries. But I know this article can easily be  related to Japan as the Japanese live longer than most societies, except for a few of the "Blue Zone" areas.

    But if I were to explore articles in Japanese I'm sure I would find many articles that are unique to Japan within the same context.

    Especially if we consider running and the marathon in Japan. Yes not everyone runs in Japan and not everyone runs marathons in Japan.

    For example it has been estimated that for the Fall 2020 marathons, before the virus situation, there might have been up to 300,000 marathon participants for the fall. Which might be higher than any other country in the world, including the US.

    Of course Japan is obsessed with the marathon and running.

    But for health and fitness, we also have to look at the Japanese lifestyle. For the most part Japanese cities are designed, whether intentional or not, that requires a lot of walking or bike riding and not just driving in a car like in the US or even South Korea.

    So the average Japanese might not get the standard 10,000 steps each day but for sure they are most likely over 5,000 steps on most days. That doesn't mean everyone is getting 5,000 steps everyday but a lot might.

    And if you add in hiking, which is a popular activity in Japan you have another part of the population that is active.

    Then you have to look at the diet. Yes the Japanese diet is changing, and yes, there is maybe, sometimes, too much salt and sugar, but for the most part the Japanese diet is very healthy.

    Even the idea of "white" rice. Yes some say its not so good, but white rice might be considered a neutral carbohydrate in that it doesn't cause too much harm to the body, if eaten in moderation.

    So to summarize, if you add in marathon running or running, hiking, the design of Japan cities, which might require a lot of walking, and the Japanese diet, its easy to see why so many Japanese citizens lives to be over 100 and stay healthy.

    Have a nice day and stay safe!

    Wednesday, May 13, 2020

    Mainichi: Japan Pro Sports Shutdown Affect: And Marathons In Japan

    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200513/p2g/00m/0sp/115000c

    Article:

    TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The economic cost of shutting down professional sports in Japan because of the coronavirus outbreak will amount to roughly 274.7 billion yen ($2.6 billion) by the end of June, a Kansai University economist said Wednesday.
      Katsuhiro Miyamoto, a professor emeritus in theoretical economics, based his calculations on the size of the different pro sports markets in Japan. He studied the impact of canceling, postponing, or holding events behind closed doors and the subsequent loss in profit from food, drinks, merchandise and lodging.
      Ideas:
      Pro sports, in most industrialized or advanced economies, and even developing economies is a major industry. As such it can have an affect on many parts of an economy and society.
      Its like the housing and construction industry in any economy. Housing and construction affect so many different areas/sectors of an economy and society, a shutdown in the housing industry can have huge affects, as most likely is happening globally.
      But the pro sports industry can have an affect on so many different industries and sectors; advertising, television, retail, etc. and the list is limitless.
      Article:
      Miyamoto estimated that from January through the end of June the lack of pro baseball will result in a loss of about 72 billion yen ($673 million), with pro soccer's impact ringing in at 39 billion yen, sumo's at 5.6 billion yen, pro basketball at 4 billion yen and pro golf at 3.6 billion yen.
      The downturn from the absence of other pro sports, Miyamoto calculated, will come to around 3 billion yen for a total loss of 127.2 billion yen ($1.2 billion) in direct costs.
      In addition to direct costs, Miyamoto's end figure of 274.7 billion yen included the cost of indirect purchases at related businesses such as restaurants and the effect on consumption by employees of related companies.
      "It seems that large organizations, teams, and clubs will manage to hold up, but I am concerned that many small organizations and clubs will take a considerable amount of time to recover," Miyamoto commented.
      Ideas:
      Exactly! The pro sports industry even affects many businesses indirectly such as restaurants where fans/consumers might to go after a game or might go there to watch a game and eat. So even bars, sports bars and such places will be affected.
      And yes, lets not forget about employees and people. Whether those directly involved in the sports industry but also those indirectly affected, whatever business or industry it is.

      Also: Marathons in Japan:

      http://japanrunningnews.blogspot.com/2020/06/kobe-marathon-canceled-19444-finishers.html

      Participation in marathons in Japan is huge. As you can see in the list in the Japan Running News blogspot.

      Marathons bring huge sums of money into a community. So the economic losses are going to be big for these cities that have decided to cancel their marathon over the virus situation.


      Have a nice day and be safe out there!

      © 2020, Tom Metts, all rights reserved

      Mainichi: Online Spending By The Elderly:

      https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200513/p2a/00m/0na/015000c

      Article:

      TOKYO -- There has been a spike in the number of online purchases made by elderly people in Japan while offline transactions in physical stores are on the decline following the novel coronavirus outbreak, according to research conducted by a major credit card company.


      As the elderly have a higher risk of developing severe symptoms if they contract the virus, the coronavirus pandemic may lead to advances in a shift to digital forms of shopping for this group of people.
      Ideas:
      Its only natural the some groups have less of the desire to buy online. But the situation now is not normal and as such more of the older groups are now forced to buy online when maybe it was not part of the normal shopping/buying patterns.
      Also some might still find it challenging to buy online.
      In that case companies should try to simplify online purchases as much as possible. It becomes a win win situation for companies and consumers.
      Article:
      Sumitomo Mitsui Card Co. examined the transaction data of a total of about 10 million customers' cards. Between April 1 and 14, the number of transactions through e-commerce sites and other forms of online shopping made by customers in their 70s had increased by 9.5% compared to the same period of the previous year. The amount of payments during this period had barely changed from the same time frame a year earlier, which suggests a trend in making more frequent purchases of low-priced products.
      On the other hand, the number of offline transactions at supermarkets had dropped by 3.4% from the same period of the previous year, while transactions at convenience stores and electronic retail stores had also decreased. The amount of payments made at supermarkets had increased by 6.5%, suggesting an overall tendency of bulk buying, while reducing the number of visits to stores.
      Ideas:
      A 9.5 percent increase really doesn't seem that much considering the severity of the situation. More frequent online purchases but maybe buying either what is only needed and or more concern with price as consumers/families and whomever are worried because of job losses and the economy.
      The drop in offline transactions/purchases is no surprise. Even at electronic retail stores is no surprise. But the decline in convenience stores, conbinis, is a little of a surprise, as consumers,office workers, would stop by a conbini on the way home, maybe, instead of going to a supermarket for something, such as buying a takeout dinner bento from the conbini. 
      Most likely consumers were also worried about crowds at conveniences stores too.
      Whenever I went to a conbini, especially 7/11 but all conbinis in Japan, the supply and variety of takeout conbini food was incredible.
      But I wonder now, with the virus situation, do they still have the same supply and variety.
      Yes, most like, there was a decrease in the actual visits to a supermarket and bulk buying was/is the trend, to avoid large crowds which are common at supermarkets and even department store.
      Whenever I was in Yokohama and went to Sogo department store at Yokohama station, you couldn't walk in the store sometimes it was so crowded. Even the supermarket area in the back.
      Further in the Yokohama station,eki, there is a small supermarket near Sony Plaza, a small brand name store, which usually attracts younger customers, but even this somewhat small but well stocked supermarket was always full with customers.
      I would go there sometimes just to see all of the takeout bento type meals/foods that you could get. 
      Article:
      The number of online transaction cases for customers in their 20's saw a large increase, while supermarket transactions also rose for this generation as well.
      A PR representative for the card company said, "The consumer behavior of the elderly, who until now apparently weren't used to online shopping so much, may change greatly prompted by the novel coronavirus."
      Ideas:
      The online shopping habits have been slow to develop compared to other countries, maybe because of the preference for cash by many.
      But now because of the virus situation, maybe more and more Japanese consumers, including the elderly are going to purchase more online than before. 
      Maybe it will be the new normal in Japan.
      And at the same time it should not and hopefully won't affect those stores and places that place a priority on face to face customer service.
      And stores and places need to find ways, if not already to embrace the new normal of shopping online but still have a store presence if at all possible.

      Have a nice day and be safe out there!
      © 2020, Tom Metts, all rights reserved

      Thursday, May 7, 2020

      Mainichi: Japan Consumer Spending:

      https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200508/p2g/00m/0bu/029000c

      Article:

      TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's household spending fell 6.0 percent in March from a year earlier, logging the largest drop in five years amid government calls for the public to stay at home to curb the further spread of the new coronavirus, government data showed Friday.
      Spending in real terms by households with two or more people was 292,214 yen ($2,750), the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said.
      A ministry official told reporters the spread of the virus reduced spending on activities such as eating out and leisure as people avoided nonessential outings.
      Ideas: 
      On the positive side, a drop of 6.0 percent is not good, but it could have been worse.  Most likely, even though this article doesn't talk about it, online spending might have increased for some sectors. For example maybe there were increases in sales for Amazon Japan, Rakuten, and other place. And then maybe for those places that already had some kind of online presence. 
      But the overlying factor has to be consumers are worried and scared about job losses, income losses etc. and as such are holding back on spending.
      And then there are the companies who are hurting because of decreases in consumer spending. 
      Article:
      Household spending fell for the sixth consecutive month since October last year, when the consumption tax was raised from 8 percent to 10 percent.
      The 6.0 percent year-on-year decline was the steepest fall since a 10.6 percent plunge in March 2015 caused by a last-minute surge in demand the previous year ahead of a consumption tax hike from 5 percent to 8 percent in April 2014.
      "So-called 'nest-dweller consumption' such as expenditures on foodstuffs for cooking at home increased, but the negative effect caused by people refraining from going out had more impact," the official said.
      Ideas:
      A decrease in spending because of the sales tax was a given. But most thought that by January of 2020 consumer spending would be close to normal before the sales tax increase. In 2014 after the sales tax increase from 5 percent to 8 percent consumer spending took only about  quarter, 3 months, to get back to what consumer spending was before the 2014 sales tax increase.
      "Nest-dweller consumption" most likely would never make up for the losses related to consumer spending outside of the home. 
      On the other hand, again, there has to be some gain related to online shopping and spending. It would seem natural or logical. 
      However, again, consumers are worried about job losses and decreased incomes or even saving, and as such have maybe even refrained from some online shopping other than essential items. 
      Article:
      As for April, the official predicted the downward trend would continue due to the state of emergency declared over the virus pandemic by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
      The declaration was issued on April 7 for Tokyo, Osaka and five other prefectures and later expanded to cover the rest of the country and extended to May 31.
      "We shouldn't assume that the figure touched rock bottom in March," the official added.
      By category, outlays for culture and recreation were down 20.6 percent, the largest contributor to the overall drop, with those for domestic and overseas package tours plummeting 83.2 percent from a year earlier.
      Ideas:
      The prefectures that were in a suggested lock down of course makeup the bulk of spending in the economy, or should we more politely say more consumer spending overall in those prefectures. 
      Yes, most likely, unfortunately, April and even maybe May might be be like March or a little worse. But everyone is hoping the continued good weather might be an occasion to maybe, be cautious, and get out and spend some on outside activities.
      Domestic travel, which also includes domestic spending, needs, with caution, to get back as quickly as possible. 
      People weren't meant to be locked down in their homes for a long time.
      There has got to be a better way to solve the virus situation instead of everyone being afraid to go out. But at the same time be cautious and safe. 
      Article:
      In the same category, meanwhile, expenditures on game consoles and software more than doubled and those on internet connectivity rose 12.4 percent, apparently reflecting longer hours people spent at home.
      Food expenses overall fell 2.4 percent, with those on dining out decreasing 32.6 percent, while expenditures on meat and grains were up 10.3 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively.
      Social expenses such as congratulatory money and outlays for suits and other formal clothing also declined. The official said those might have been caused by a spate of cancellations of various events including graduation ceremonies.
      Ideas: 
      Spending on items for use inside the home would of course increase. At the same time, I have noticed an increase in prices of notebook computers on Japan Amazon and US Amazon. Either from an increase in demand and or because of low supplies, due to supply and logistics challenges. 
      An increase in internet usage would be logical and families are locked down at home, and company employees are working from home.
      A 2.4 percent decrease in food spending might not be that big of a deal, except for the stores/places that would usually get consumer spending. A 32.6 percent decrease in dining out of course is very much expected as consumers shifted to eating at home. 
      An increase in meats and grains, again, would be logical as consumers would buy those products and use them at home. However, sources inside Japan have said the there have been shortages of rice in some places. Even with a limit on the number of bags, of say 1 per customer, a family of four would go to the supermarket and each member of the family would buy one bag of rice.
      The decrease in outlays also is not expected as many event were either cancelled, postponed or limited.
      Article:
      After adjusting for inflation, the average monthly income of salaried households with at least two people was up 1.5 percent this March from a year earlier to 490,589 yen.
      Household spending is a key indicator of private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's gross domestic product.
      Ideas:
      The idea that monthly income increased sounds good but that is the average. What is the high and what is the low, and what is the dispersion between the average and the low. Meaning there might be a large group below that number, especially if someone worked for a business that was hit hard by the virus situation.
      Yes household spending or consumer spending makes up more than half of Japan's GDP, which means Japan, like all other countries can't go too long in the current situation. 
      There are just too many variables or people involved in all kinds of sectors or industries that rely on consumer spending. 
      The Bank of Japan and the government, while doing a lot, can't sustain every business and every family forever. 
      The economy itself need to get back to some kind of "new normal".

      Have a nice day and be safe out there!
      © 2020, Tom Metts, all rights reserved

      Friday, May 1, 2020

      Mainichi: Japan Dept. Store Sales in April:

      https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200501/p2g/00m/0bu/116000c

       Ideas:

      Its understandable that sales would be down. It is however, a good time to try to transform some of the products to an online platform and sell as much as possible online. Yes, Japan, for the most part is all about face to face customer service. But the time is right to move to online selling for department stores. Maybe now and the future this is the future of shopping in Japan. Yes customers, especially older shoppers might prefer face to face shopping and or are not able to shop online. But the option should be made available and if a department store doesn't have an online presence now is the time to develop it.

      Who knows when this situation will change. The sooner department stores can transform from just brick and mortar stores to stores with a good online presence, the sooner their sales may begin to come back.

      Rakuten and Amazon Japan and many many others are probably doing just fine in this new business environment. Now is the time for brick and mortar stores to do the same. And any other brick and mortar if they haven't already.

      Of course part of the drop in sales, maybe for everyone, is the uncertainty of jobs and salaries, as consumers are waiting, cutting back, or just don't have the extra income to spend at this time.


      Have a nice day and be safe out there!
      © 2020, Tom Metts, all rights reserved

      Thursday, April 30, 2020

      Reuters: March Economic Data:

      https://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0006521308

      Article:

      TOKYO (Reuters) — Japan’s March factory output fell at the fastest pace in five months, while retail sales also dropped as businesses struggled with the coronavirus pandemic’s sharp hit to overseas and domestic demand.
      The global economy could suffer its worst downturn this year since the Great Depression of the 1930s due to a virus-driven collapse of activity, with Japan’s economy facing stagnation due to its export dependence and soft domestic consumption.
      Official data on Thursday showed factory output slipped 3.7% in March from the previous month, a smaller decline than the 5.2% drop in a Reuters forecast.
      The reading marked the sharpest fall in production since October last year, and followed a downwardly revised 0.3% drop in the previous month.
      Ideas: 
      Even a 3.7 percent decline is not good but at least it wasn't 5.2 percent. Stagnation is a significant challenge to overcome. Exports are really only about 20 percent of Japan's GDP, but large enough to have a significant affect if there are export declines. Domestic or consumer spending might be as much as 60 percent or more of Japanese GDP. And it has always been a major challenge to it moving up. Even when the Bank of Japan tried to target inflation to get it to increase to 2.0 percent, it was always dependent on increasing consumer spending or increasing consumer demand to get prices to go up. But ultimately the BOJ has failed so far to increase inflation. 
      Article:
      “Though China’s economy picked up slightly in March, the virus outbreak spread in other countries leading to a stalling of economic activity,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
      Automakers and machinery manufacturers suffered output declines due to slower demand for parts and equipment from factories overseas, including China.
      “Inventories were at a level not seen since April 2009, when the global economy was still recovering from the ‘Lehman Shock’. I think there will be considerable production adjustments,” said Minami.
      The data showed inventories in March jumped 8.5% from the previous month, while shipments sank 5.0%, their biggest decline since comparable data became available in 2013.
      The government downgraded its assessment of output conditions to say they are dropping.
      Ideas:
      China's economy may have picked up slightly but that might not be much considering the size of the economy. And it might not be much if the correct or needed parts of the economy didn't pick up. 
      Inventory increases and decreases are always a major concern. If the inventory level is too low, it might be good idea that demand is up and companies are unable to keep up with demand. So maybe now inventories or face masks might be down or low in stores or some stores because there is a lot of demand and companies are unable to keep with the demand for face masks.
      The same can be said if demand is low. Then of course inventories will be begin to increase.  And what might happen is companies begin to reduce prices to try and reduce the unwanted inventory. Which is most likely might be for some companies and industries during the crisis now.
      Article:
      Manufacturers surveyed by the government expect output to rise 1.4% in April and drop 1.4% in May, the data showed, though manufacturers’ forecasts for future production have historically been on the high side.
      “There’s a high possibility output may also decline in April considering that manufacturers have not fully taken into account the impact of the coronavirus outbreak,” a trade ministry official said.
      Ideas:
      Yes most likely output has declined in April and supply chains struggle and demand for products are decreasing.  And yes, sometimes forecast might be on the positive side as no one has expected the current situation to last as long as it has. 
      Companies do not operate in a vacuum. They are interconnected with their supply chains meaning if they can't get the parts and supplies they need they can't do business or keep the same output. And then the ideas of demand from customers is always there or not there these days.
      Article:
      RETAIL SLUMP
      Separate data showed retail sales tumbled at their fastest pace since last October’s sales tax hike as the outbreak forced department stores to shut their doors and consumers to cut spending.
      Retail sales slumped 4.6% in March from a year earlier, pulled down by tumbling demand for general merchandise and clothing as well as plunging department store sales.
      Sales of household appliances, such as refrigerators and washing machines, as well as smartphones were also weak, another trade ministry official said.
      The fall in retail sales confirms that the recovery in spending from the tax hike “has been completely derailed by corona containment,” said Tom Learmouth, Japan economist at Capital Economics.
      Ideas:
      A decrease in retail sales was not unexpected.  However, to be somewhat positive, a 4.6 percent decrease could have been worse. Its quite possible that binge shopping and online retail sales might have lessened the decrease. And if we look closely we might see an increase in some items or many items that consumer felt were/are important during the virus crisis.
      The October sales tax increase affect might have been long gone by March if all things were normal or equal. But as we know, all things are no equal or normal. Meaning basically by March consumers would have gotten used to the sales tax increase and gone back, somewhat, to their normal spending patterns. 
      Article:
      A Cabinet Office survey released on Thursday showed consumer confidence hit a record low in April, damaged by the coronavirus pandemic and social distancing policies.
      The government downgraded its view on the consumer sentiment index, saying it was worsening quickly.
      Japan was already struggling with weak demand before the outbreak after the government raised the sales tax to fix its heavy public debt burden, which is more than twice the size of the gross domestic product.
      The economy shrank an annualized 7.1% in the three months through December due to the hit from the U.S.-China trade war and the sales tax hike.
      Ideas:
      Consumer confidence is used mostly to measure or understand the feelings or mood of consumes and what they think they might do in the future related to spending. Its not surprising that consumer confidence is down.
      But look at it in a different way. Why is it really down? How much of it has to do with the sales tax increase? How much of it has to with the threat of the virus? How much of it has to do with the shortage of some needed products including some essential food? How much of it is related to social distancing? And now much of it is just the fear of the unknown in the future?
      Even though the economy shrank,it was expected to return to some kind of normal during the winter. But of course that has not happened.
      Article:
      The soft batch of data comes as Japan’s parliament is set to approve on Thursday a $241 billion supplementary budget to fund a record stimulus package featuring cash payouts to every citizen to offset the widening economic hit.
      The move will come on the back of expanded stimulus from the Bank of Japan, which earlier this week rolled out fresh steps to ease corporate funding strains and pledged to buy unlimited amounts of bonds to keep borrowing costs low.
      Official data on Tuesday showed the widening hit to the jobs market from the outbreak. The March jobless rate rose to its highest in a year, while job availability slipped to a more than three-year low. Speech.
      Ideas:
      Yes the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan need to work together to get as much aid as needed into the economy. The government part of GDP needs to increase significantly like when Keynes had the UK government increase spending during the great depression and WWII to overcome the depression. While it might be only temporary, whatever is needed the government needs to do to offset the loses in consumer spending and business spending.


      Have a nice day and stay safe!

      © 2020, Tom Metts, all rights reserved