Japan Economy: Updated June 29, 2026.

Japan economy may tie 73-month postwar growth record in June.

Ideas

The Japanese economy is a very mature economy which means it doesn't grow like it did in the 60's, 70's or even the 80's as even a small GDP growth improvement is most likely all that Japan can expect.

But even if its true that there have been 73 consecutive months of growth the amount of growth might be minimal at best as the Japanese economy just doesn't grow that fast any more.

It should be noted, even though growth is minimal, there is still a lot of economic activity in Japan as it takes more and more resources, economic activity, to get a mature economy to grow even a little which Japan surprisingly has been able to to do lately.

Yes, state subsidies are good and needed but of course its increasing the already bloated Japanese government debt but maybe it can't be helped as subsidies are needed to help ordinary Japanese households deal with the continued inflation in Japan.

Whether the postwar record for economic expansion is real or not its still very noteworthy as Japan just continues on despite having a few decades before of supposed stagnation and even its only minimal economic expansion is seen as moving the economy forward.

Japan doesn't want to go back to a period of stagnation or even de-flation as both situations are not good for Japanese households or even the Japanese economy. Even though some might have liked de-flation, it was not good as wages didn't increase, consumer spending was less than good and the overall  economy was just sitting and not doing much at all.

As everyone knows by now the agreement was really not that much of an agreement as the situation really hasn't improved that much as Japan and other countries are still not sure what is going to happen next in the region, which means supply lines and shipping is still going to be in a situation of wait a see.

Yes, Japan might actually see positive growth through July which means, despite all of its weaknesses, it's still a very reliable and stable economy.

Not too long ago the Japanese economy had a habit of expanding one quarter and then decreasing another quarter as the economy just wasn't sure what it wanted to really do.

But it seems the Japanese economy has finally been able to move past the up and down from the up and down situation to sustainable growth for at least the time being.

And yes, maybe, finally, consumer spending or personal consumption has finally been enough to actually have an affect on GDP growth as robust wage hikes might have actually kicked in to the point wage earners feel good about spending again in the Japanese economy.

And, as there is a supposed labor-shortage in Japan, corporate investment is moving forward with labor-saving measures and digitization, which Japan, for the most part, is way behind other advanced economies in.

And yes, Japan exports, have recovered as maybe demand for Japanese cars as US consumers have become accustomed to the higher prices of Japanese cars and begun to buy more cars again despite the possible of the tariff situation and price increases.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260623/p2g/00m/0bu/034000c

Japan Core Consumer Prices. Updated June 28, 2026.

Japan core consumer prices in May rise 1.4%, fuel subsidies slow increase

Ideas

Japan households continue to see their disposable incomes decreasing as inflation, ever since the pandemic, has been a constant stress over the last few years.

Yes, the 1.4 percent rise in food prices in April might be below 2 percent but that doesn't mean consumers don't feel the increase as those without jobs, part-time jobs, and those on limited contracts with children can actually feel the increase in food prices.

While the Japanese government has instituted some subsidies to help Japanese families, their food costs and energy costs might still be a burden for many of them, and especially those who have limited incomes or even fixed incomes while even a small increase in costs might feel like a huge increase.

At the same time, in a market economy it might not be the responsibility of a government to help or take care of every citizen but if you look at the Northern European countries, they do a pretty good job of trying to take care of most of their citizens with social programs, and despite what some critics might say they have strong market economies but have social programs to make their societies too.

While inflation overall might be slowing its still too high for many Japanese consumers and especially the lower-income and fixed-income groups who can feel even the slightest increase in prices.

Its good that the Japanese government has been giving subsidies to oil wholesaler in Japan, but to be fair, are the wholesalers passing-on the subsidies to Japanese consumers with lower prices or are they just taking advantage of consumers like some companies actually do.

Yes rice prices everywhere including prices on Rakuten and Amazon have even been higher than normal and its been that way since the summer of 2024 when the situation first came to light.

But as markets go, at least in theory, prices are beginning to finally come down with supplies forcing prices to get back to some kind of normalcy in Japan.

Yes, it might be difficult to pin-point if the situation in the Middle East has affected increased prices but there is usually a link some where in the supply chain which can determine if the situation has affected prices.

Even thought the Bank of Japan increased its key rate, there might not be any affects related to the increase immediately as it takes time for markets and sectors to feel anything related as again there might not be any immediate affects or there might be none at all as the rate increase might be too small to notice any real tangible results, as that happens from time to time.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260619/p2g/00m/0bu/012000c

Food Prices in Japan: Ideas Later.

Chicken prices hit record high in Japan, forcing changes to bento menus

Article to be deleted after ideas.

Article:

TOKYO -- As prices for a wide range of foods continue to climb across Japan, chicken and eggs -- long regarded as affordable staples for budget-conscious consumers -- have also remained stubbornly expensive.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said June 16 that the average retail price of chicken thighs in June was 155 yen (about $1) per 100 grams, the highest level since comparable records began in 2003.

The rise in chicken prices has forced a growing number of restaurants and food manufacturers to either change their menus or raise prices. Many would rather avoid altering signature offerings for fear of losing customers, but for some, that is no longer an option.

Forced menu changes

"We couldn't raise prices, so we decided to replace ingredients."

That is how a spokesperson for Kiyoken Co., a food company based in Yokohama, described the situation.

The company partially changed the side dishes in its "Yokohama fried rice" bento on June 1. The meal sells for 890 yen (about $5.60), including tax.

The bento, popular among women and children, contains small portions of side dishes including shumai dumplings, simmered bamboo shoots and other items. But after chicken prices surged, Kiyoken replaced one of its most popular side dishes -- chicken in chili sauce -- with shrimp in chili sauce. It was the first menu revision in about 20 years.

Kiyoken had been using imported chicken from countries including Thailand. But "around March, when the situation in the Middle East worsened, we started seeing chicken prices rise," the spokesperson said.

The company had already raised prices for all of its bento products in February. Seeking to avoid further price hikes, it opted to change the ingredients instead.

An 86-year-old Yokohama woman who purchased the bento said she was surprised by the change but added, "It might be tasty with shrimp too," expressing understanding for businesses struggling with rising ingredient costs.

A 69-year-old woman from Tokyo's Toshima Ward sighed as she said, "My son works out and prefers chicken dishes, but chicken has become so expensive that I compare supermarket flyers and buy it wherever it's cheapest."

"Apart from ingredients, many other items, including packaging materials, are becoming more expensive," the Kiyoken spokesperson said. "Combined with the impact of exchange-rate fluctuations, we continue to feel the heavy burden of overall purchasing costs."

The company said it would continue seeking new chicken suppliers, including domestic producers, while weighing factors such as cost and quality.

Kentucky Fried Chicken Japan Ltd. raised the price of its flagship "Original Chicken" to 330 yen (about $2.10) per piece, including tax, in May. The increase marked the fourth price hike since June 2022.

So why are chicken prices so high?

Global demand for chicken has been rising amid changing dietary habits and growing health consciousness.

At a news conference following a Cabinet meeting June 2, Agriculture Minister Norikazu Suzuki said that rising demand was pushing up imported chicken prices and that some restaurant operators were switching to domestically produced chicken, adding upward pressure to market prices.

Masato Koike, a senior researcher at the think tank Sompo Institute Plus Inc., pointed to another factor.

"The recent situation in the Middle East has also pushed up feed and energy costs, adding upward pressure on chicken prices," he said.

Looking ahead, Koike said demand for relatively inexpensive chicken was likely to strengthen further as beef and pork prices also remained high.

"Chicken prices may remain flat or edge up slightly," he said.

Minister Suzuki said that chicken remained an affordable and indispensable source of animal protein for consumers and that the government would closely monitor supply and demand conditions and price trends to help ensure stable supplies.

Egg prices also remain high

It is not only chicken meat that has become more expensive. Egg prices have also remained high.

The ministry said June 16 that the average retail price of a mixed-size 10-egg pack was 309 yen (about $1.90), matching the record high reached in May.

The Japan Poultry Association said egg prices are likely to stabilize around this summer, when the number of egg-laying hens -- reduced by culls carried out during bird flu outbreaks -- is expected to return to normal levels.

It may take some time before chicken and eggs become affordable again. As inflation continues to strain household budgets, even chicken and eggs are beginning to lose their place as the last affordable staples for budget-conscious consumers.

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260619/p2a/00m/0bu/012000c

Japan Trade Deficit: Ideas Later. Updated June 26, 2026.

Japan logs 378.6 billion yen trade deficit in May, 1st red ink in 4 months

Ideas

It is estimated that both Japan and South Korea, are the two countries that are being affected the most, related  energy and oil imports, and it seems at least in Japan, it has now begun to have an affect as imports of crude oil decreased by 57 percent in volume.

Of course finding alternative sources is good and needed but at a cost as shipping and insurance fees are most likely much higher from other energy source countries.

Ever since the pandemic shipping costs have skyrocketed and they don't seem to be going down and the latest situation in the Middle East is not helping reduce the costs of supply chains and global shipping.

And yes, company profits are going to suffer and of course, as companies in Japan now do, they will pass-on their increased costs and ultimately the final retail customer in Japan.

The trade deficit decreasing by 42.8 percent from a year earlier is neither a good sign 

or a bad sign as there are other factors involved than just a trade surplus or trade deficit situation.

But for Japan, being a major export powerhouse the idea that there is even the hint of a trade deficit can cause challenges overall for the Japanese economy, and even if it just in terms of business or consumer sentiment in Japan.

At the same time, the Japanese economy is not a completely closed economy as meaning products from other countries are sometimes popular and seen as better than some Japanese products such as the Apply I phone or other Apple products and not even Chinese smartphones which of course might be priced much lower than the Apple I phone.

Japan is not finally feeling the affects of the Middle East situation and again, Japan next to South Korea is one of the most affected countries with oil and energy imports both down in value and volume.

And of course that means energy and oil prices will increase as companies will pass-on their costs to the next in the supply chain including the final retail customer.

Its good that Japan is finding alternative sources of energy but of course due to shipping and supply chain costs, the costs for different energy and oil will be much higher which again might mean higher prices for consumers in Japan.

Japan needs to continue upgrade its supply chains and at the same time, continue to find different sources of energy, as Japan is resource-poor country which means it has to import almost everything it needs.

The Middle East situation should be a continued wake-up call for all economies to again diversify it raw material sources as economies should not if possible only rely on one source, one region, or one country for what it needs.

At the same time, as always there might be companies out there trying to produce alternative naphtha type products as conflict or difficulties can create innovation and new products and this might be perfect example for it to emerge.

Its good Japan has been able to find alternative raw material as again, economies and countries should always have alternatives to use in case of disruptions in supply chains or even market failures.

And yes, the recent agreement, as everyone has seen and heard by now is not real agreement and the situation is at best in a stalemate phase which means supplies and supply chains could still be compromised.

Yes, Japanese automakers should continue to view the region as a valuable market as someday the region will get back to some kind of normalcy but it be a new normalcy that companies will have to navigate.

The region has too many up and coming economies with up and coming middle class or higher consumers that might be interested in Japanese cars and Japanese products.

Have a nice day!

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260617/p2g/00m/0bu/015000c

BOJ Increases Rate. Updated July 28, 2026

BOJ lifts policy rate to 31-yr high 1.0% on heightened inflation risks.

Ideas

A key rate increase to 1.0 might not be that big of a deal and most likely its not going to really affect the financial markets or the regular bank rates that much so its affect on the Japanese economy might help some but might not help that much as the BOJ, as always its concerned about the side affects of the rate increase.

It might with the weak Japanese has the difference between the key rate in Japan and the key rate in the US is significant which has a lot of affect on how high or low the yen goes these days.

The idea of companies pass-on their costs as always happened and will continue to happen as many companies now, prioritize shareholder value over customer loyalty as they are under extreme pressure to meet quarterly profit projections which means the are now quick to pass on their costs to keep their profits margins in line.

Japan companies up until recently used to think customer loyalty was an important part of their business, but, unfortunately, as Japanese companies have transitioned more into looking like western companies the have placed shareholder value over customer importance these days as again, they are under significant pressure to meet quarterly profit expectations.

Yes, for a long time the BOJ felt the Japanese economy was not strong enough to handle a key rate increase but now its seems like the Japanese economy has become strong enough to handle and rate hike and might not suffer any real side affects and might be able to begin to slight decrease in inflation too.

Of course the Japanese government has been doing their part with securing alternative sources of energy along with using subsidies as needed to help the Japanese economy and Japanese households.

The Bank of Japan might not want to admit it but a weak Japanese yen, up to a point, has both positive and negative effects for the Japanese economy. For Japanese explorers its a positive as the weaker the yen the more profits they can get from overseas markets but at the same time its a negative for the Japanese domestic economy, as Japan is resource-poor country which means it has to import much of what it needs and the weak Japanese yen increases the price of imports into Japan which significantly affects the overall domestic economy.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan has to be very careful with its monetary policy as it doesn't want to be seen as a currency manipulator which means it might be sanctioned in one way or another due to what are thought of direct interventions to affect global currency markets.

It's quite possible that Asada, who favors monetary easing, is an ally of the current Japanese Prime Minister who wants to see more monetary easing as a way to help Japanese companies even more. 

A lower key interest rate, has both positives and negatives, depending on the conditions of an economy, and it give companies, for the most part, a lower rate of interest when they want to borrow money and it gives credit card holders a lower rate of interest which means they can use their cards more to spend in the economy, and it gives lower rates for housing mortgages which means more Japanese families buying new homes.

The BOJ for a very long time bought a lot of Japanese bonds as a way to try and help the economy grow but at the same time it was causing the government debt to increase to a level that makes it one of the most indebted economy in the world. But at this time,  it might not be that big of a deal but ten or twenty years down the road it could potentially have some significant affects on the Japanese economy.

The idea of the BOJ buying government bonds is to get more money into the economy which means lower interest rates and maybe helps to control or manage the Japanese yen, and at the same time it helps to reduce inflation ever so slightly over time.

The Bank of Japan, it seemed, for a very long time, was resistant to either reducing its bond purchases or increasing the key rate even though other the central banks were doing it to combat inflation but the BOJ resisted as again, it felt the economy was just too weak and there were just too many side affects that could cause challenges in the economy.

But there seems to be a new or different perspective now as the BOJ seems to be more willing to combat inflation by increasing the key rate as it seems to feel or think the economy is now strong enough to handle a key rate increase and the side affects with be minimal now.

Supply chains globally, not just in the Middle East, seem to be significantly compromised and even if the Middle East situation stabilizes it's going to take many more months for global supply chains to get back to some kind of normal or a new normal.

A weak Japanese yen, while good for Japanese exporters is terrible for the domestic economy as the weak yen drives up import prices and Japan being a resource-poor country has to import much of what it needs which means prices for ordinary Japanese households are going to be even higher than normal as companies, importers and wholesalers are going to pass-on the increase in imports prices to the next in the supply chain including the final retail customer.

Yes, it seems, finally, the Bank of Japan is trying to be a little more in line with what other central banks are doing globally to combat inflation instead of being the lone outlier and not doing anything as for a while it seemed the BOJ was using the strategy of just letting the market adjust on its own with idea that in-time inflation would decrease and the Japanese economy would be back to normal soon, but as seen that never happened.

But at the same time, over time it seems as the Japanese economy has supposedly has grown now for 73 consecutive months it might be strong enough handle some global market shocks and be strong enough to handle some more key interest rate increases as needed to combat inflation.

Japanese companies haven't just started to pass-on their costs but have been passing-on their costs for the most part of the last few years as they got to the point that their profit margins became too thin and they felt they had no choice but to do it as before many or most Japanese companies would absorb their cost increases as a way to maintain customer loyalty but it seems those days are long gone in Japan for most companies now.

Japanese companies, or course value customer loyalty but the larger Japanese companies, which now have significant shareholders have had to take a different approach and now place more have on their profits markings and the quarterly profits over customer loyalty.

Core inflation can be looked at in two ways as is inflation the result of companies passing-on their costs to the next in the supply chain including the final retail customer or is core inflation increasing due an increase in consumer spending which means companies, seeing their products are becoming more popular, are increasing their prices.

Most likely its not an increase in consumer spending as consumer spending while improving its just not that much in Japan but most likely due to companies passing-on their costs to the next in the supply chain but to be fair and honest its seems inflation in Japan has finally level off at just below the 2 percent threshold, at least for now.

Have a nice day!

Article source:

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260616/p2g/00m/0bu/014000c

Japan Big Company Sentiment: April- June Gtr. Updated June 15, 2026.

Japan big companies' sentiment sours in April-June qtr, hurt by Iran war.

Ideas

Business sentiment in most advanced and emerging economies is an very important economic indicator as it can drive stock markets, not just in one country but globally too if news comes out that Japan's business sentiment is down or even the US stock markets and globally can react negatively to the news.

Japan's economy is still an important economy globally as its still ranked among the top five economies in the world and as such most stock markets watch what is happening in Japan on a daily level, if not weekly, or even monthly.

Over the past several decades, business sentiment in Japan hasn't been that great as, for the most part, Japan has been mired in a stagnant economic phase that it hasn't been to be able to get out of, and maybe this is just another phase of the stagnation phase that the Japanese economy is in.

The Japanese economy, unfortunately, is very much a global export driven economy which means it relies heavily on the global economy and whenever there are disruptions, like now with the Middle East situation, it can easily have some economic shocks that disrupt the normal flow of the economy.

Japan is very much a major manufacturing economy still even though most of the economy is now based on services and technology but there is still a major manufacturing presence and the export side of the economy is heavily manufactured based.

As such, again any disruptions in the global economy can be a major challenge for many Japanese companies as a result companies can easily become disillusioned with what is happening and may find the global conditions not to their liking which means they might reduce hiring, reduce manufacturing and so on and then there is the idea of the increase in global prices which can affect Japanese companies significantly.

Business sentiment is like the stock market in that some or many companies can easily react negatively to whatever is happening not only in Japan but globally too as companies in Japan are constantly watching the global economy very carefully and for most companies, unfortunately, they don't have any real mechanisms to try and ride out any disruptions as again most companies seem to react instead of responding in a way that shows that it has taken a long term view of the situation and is not going to react negatively which can be cause challenges for its company.

Yes even non-manufacturers in the Japanese economy are feeling the affects of the increase of global prices and even in most sectors in Japan, the increase in raw material prices, the increase in wages and labor costs are affecting many companies both large and small.

It should be remembered that over 97 percent of most Japanese companies are small and mid-size companies and not the name-brand companies that always seem to be in the news. As such what happens to most small and  mid-size companies never hits the news and no one really knows or even cares, for the most part, what is going on with the small companies.

Again, while the index is an important and significant measurement to know what companies might be feeling or thinking about the Japanese economy and even more about the global economy it might not represent every company in Japan as a survey of 10,000 companies, while relevant is not every company in Japan an there might be just some companies who don't see or feel the same as the large companies do and or maybe some in different sectors of the economy might not see things the same way, so the survey, while important should always be taken with some kind of grain of salt.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260611/p2g/00m/0bu/016000c

Japan May Wholesales Prices: Updated June 15, 2026

Japan's wholesale prices up 6.3% in May, fastest rise in over 3 years

Ideas

For many years, Japanese companies both retail and wholesale were reluctant to increase prices and or pass-on their prices to the next in the supply chain including the final retail customer as they valued their relationships with their customers and tried to absorb their costs as much as they could.

But those days seem long gone, as material costs increase, the pressure to increase labor or wage costs continue to increase as companies, these days, feel they have no choice but increase costs and now, for some or many its survival in the marketplace.

Yes, it appears, all the pieces are falling into place for the BOJ to increase its key policy relate as a preventive measure to try and reduce inflation like many countries do when their inflation increases beyond what a central bank thinks it should be.

Most central banks prefer to see inflation at around 2 percent as they feel its a manageable level and many central banks thinks at that rate a country's economic activity is at a good level for the economy.

And again, if the BOJ does increase the rate to 1.00, even though there might be some negative side affects, to be sure, the BOJ has considered what the side affects will be and have taken into account how much the Japanese economy will be affected by the rate increase.

There is no real guarantee that the rate increase will slow inflation or even have a significant effect on inflation as a rate increase, for the most part,, is just a prescription like in medicine and sometime prescriptions work immediately and sometimes they take a while to work.

Yes, the wholesale price increases are usually delayed before they begin to affect consumer prices or retail prices as some companies might pass-on their increased costs immediately and some might wait and some might only pass-on parts of the price increase a little at a time to not cause too much stress to the final retail customer.

For a very long time, it appeared that BOJ in dealing with inflation was taking a hands-off approach and maybe was hoping the inflation would naturally decrease as some have suggested the BOJ felt the Japanese economy was just to weak to increase the key rate as their would be too many significant side affects affecting the economy.

As Japan is resource-poor country it depends on imports from many parts of the world, and whenever there are major disruptions in global supply chains Japanese can feel it as prices will go up and it takes sometimes up to six months for prices to decrease, if at all.

Japan is smart to look for alternative sources and it should not be an emergency situation to keep alternative sources close as there as recently there have been major disruptions in global supply chains since the covid situation, and as Japan's currency is very weak import prices to Japan are going to continue to be very high.

Japanese households have been stressed out by the increase in prices almost since the pandemic started and it doesn't look like it's going to change anytime soon in the future.

As a result Japanese households disposable income has been reduced which means less spending in the economy which of course means less economic growth.

The Middle East is more than just gas and oil and there are many more products coming out of that region and prices will continue to be high even after the situation calms down as prices and supply chain disruptions just don't go back to normal as it going to take months to everything back to some kind of normal.

And then, as has been seen previously, unfortunately, companies will try to keep prices high until they have re-couped what they might have lost due to the Middle East situation, as is evidenced during and after the pandemic with many airlines keeping prices high to get back their lost earnings.

Yes, the Middle East situation is affecting all up and down the global supply chain ecosystem and it doesn't look like it going to end anytime, as again, its going to take months to get the supply chain ecosystem back to some kind of normal and again its not going to happen overnight.

Companies, unfortunately, are  for the most part, only think about their current situation and the situation in how it affects their shareholders, and don't really think that much about the final retail customer, especially if the products they produce or buy in the Middle East is related to B2B type products or company needed products and not normal consumer type products.

Yes, again, companies, especially in the short term only think about their profits and usually don't think about the big picture which includes, or should include, shareholders, employee stakeholders, and the retail customer.

Once again, in years past, and now maybe many years past, Japanese companies were reluctant to pass-on their increased costs to the next in the supply chain and including the final retail customer, as they felt their relationship with customers were an important element of doing business and not just to make a profit, but those days may be long gone, for many companies in Japan now.

It must be remembered, that the Japanese yen is currently very weak which increases the price of imports into Japan and then add on the disruptions in the global supply chain and that too increases the price of most if not all import products coming out of the Middle East.

And exports are not exempt from prices increase related to raw material costs, increases in labor costs, and so on as export companies will increase their prices too as needed to protect their profits margins and then there is the continued situation with global supply chains and the increase in shipping that saw a significant increase in costs during the pandemic and the increase continues today.

Have a nice day!

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260610/p2g/00m/0bu/017000c