Japan August Industrial Output: Updated Oct. 1, 2025.

Japan's August industrial output falls 1.2% on sluggish demand for PCs

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250930/p2g/00m/0bu/011000c

Ideas

Japan is still heavily focused on industrial output as manufacturing is still a significant economic activity in Japan. 

While many economies have transitioned to a more service based economy, and Japan too, manufacturing is still a key part of the Japanese economy.

The problem or challenge is it seems like, while services and technology are strong economic activities, manufacturing in Japan is still a significantly important part of the Japanese economy.

An index number of 100.9 is still good but maybe some might want to see a higher index number that represent better output of manufacturing in the Japanese economy.

For a very long time, software and services were not considered significant company endeavors in Japan as production of hardware was the key endeavor for a Japanese company.

Its only been recently that software, services, and technology have taken root in Japanese companies.

Manufacturing is usually never a 100 percent upward linear activity as there are always going to starts and stops related to material shortages, equipment maintenance, and the the normal up and downs of supply and demand.

For example during the pandemic there was supposed shortage of semiconductors which affected Japan manufacturing significantly and even globally.

And then there is/was the Toyota group mishap related to testing quality control which caused the shutdown of some of the Toyota group production lines.

The personal compute sector is very competitive market and Japanese personal computers have been losing market share to other companies such as as those in Taiwan, China, South Korea, then of course Apple which has a significant market share related to personal computers.

All 15 of the industrial sectors are never going to be positive at the same time as there are going to some that are positive and some that are negative as with the sectors overall in an economy there are going to be some sectors that are positive and some that are negative.

It could be, that at this time, very difficult to accurately measure how much the effects of the tariffs are having on the Japanese economy as maybe Japanese companies are absorbing any increases in tariff and trying to maintain production levels the best they can.

And again, at the same time, it could be US car dealerships are trying keep prices down the best they so that US consumers are not going to feel to put-off with the higher prices that potentially the tariffs could bring.

Industrial output in Japan is not just exports to the US but also the production of many other  different products that are also used in the Japanese domestic economy.

But at the same time, exports to the US are a significant economic activity and it alone might be considered an economic growth engine for the Japanese economy.

An increase or decrease in industrial shipments could be a good indicator of increased growth in demand for some Japanese products.

And the same with inventories but the inventory category needs to be taken with a grain of salt as inventories either increased or decreased could related to estimates that were correct or not correct depending when they were done.

Have a nice day!

Toyota Global Sales: Ideas Later.

Toyota global sales up 2.2% in Aug. on solid US demand

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250929/p2g/00m/0bu/026000c

Article to be deleted after commentary.

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Toyota Motor Corp. said Monday its global sales in August rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier to 844,963 units for the eighth straight month of increase, boosted by solid demand in the U.S. and other overseas markets.

Global production climbed 4.9 percent to 744,176 vehicles, the world's largest automaker by volume said, increasing on year for the third consecutive month on the back of strong sales of hybrid vehicles.

Toyota's overseas sales set a new record for August, rising 4.4 percent to 748,694 units, with sales in the United States growing 13.6 percent to 225,367 units, thanks to robust demand for hybrids despite higher tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

Among other regions, sales in China edged up 0.9 percent to 153,415 units, thanks to the effects of the government's subsidies for purchases of environmentally friendly vehicles and strong demand for its new electric vehicle model, the automaker said.

In contrast, domestic sales dropped 12.1 percent to 96,269 units, affected by delayed deliveries due to output suspensions following tsunami warnings and advisories issued after a powerful earthquake off Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula.

Toyota said production in the United States grew 19.0 percent to 126,081 units, but that in China declined 8.2 percent to 125,383 units. Domestic output increased 12.0 percent to 207,990 units, helped by a rebound following a certification scandal last year.

The struggling Nissan Motor Co., which has been undertaking major restructuring to turn its business around, also saw production for the month edge up 0.8 percent from the previous year to 237,941 units, lifted by the popularity of its N7 electric vehicle in China.

Meanwhile, the country's second-biggest automaker Honda Motor Co. reported its 13th consecutive month of output decline with a 13.0 percent drop to 267,005 units due to stiff competition in China, Indonesia and Malayasia.

Suzuki Motor Corp. said production shrank by 5.2 percent to 241,749 units, its seventh straight month of decrease, and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. saw its output fall 10.9 percent to 59,372 units.

Total global production by the eight major Japanese automakers fell 2.0 percent to 1,816,107 units, while their worldwide sales slipped 1.7 percent to 1,945,064 units.

• Font Size
• Print
• • Timeline
  • 0

• Go to The Mainichi Home Page

Japan Prices Increased in October: Ideas Later.

How will our daily lives in Japan be affected by price hikes, min. wage updates from Oct.?

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250926/p2a/00m/0bu/031000c

Article to be deleted after commentary.

Article:

TOKYO -- Starting in October, various systems and mechanisms relating to our daily lives in Japan will change. The medical co-payment for elderly outpatients will be raised for some individuals aged 75 and over, while food prices will continue to rise, with 500-milliliter beverages set to see their price tags reach 200 yen (approx. $1.35) or above each. Meanwhile, minimum wages will be revised by each prefecture in sequence, with the national weighted average rising by 66 yen to 1,121 yen (about $7.58) per hour. Here are the details of key changes.

Elderly co-payment will rise while relief measure will end

The co-payment hike will affect 75-plus-year-old single-person households with an annual income of 2 million yen (approx. $13,500) or more, as well as households of two or more members with a yearly income of 3.2 million yen (about $21,600) or above. This demographic's co-payment had already been raised from 10% to 20% in October 2022, but that was ameliorated by a monthly outlay cap of 3,000 yen (around $20.28). This measure will be terminated, bringing the co-payment to the full 20% in principle.

Price hikes for food and beverages

Companies including Kirin Beverage Co., Asahi Soft Drinks Co., Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd., Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Inc. and Ito En Ltd. will raise their suggested retail prices for drinks in plastic bottles and bottle-shaped cans from October.

A range of 500-milliliter drinks like "Mitsuya Cider" and "Coca-Cola" will cost 200 yen or more when purchased from vending machines. Additionally, Takanofoods Co.'s "Okame Natto" fermented soybeans and Sato Foods Co.'s "Sato no Gohan" cooked rice series will also see price increases. According to Teikoku Databank Ltd., the prices of more than 3,000 food items are expected to rise in October, marking the largest barrage of such hikes since April.

Mandating 'flexible work styles'

Companies will be required to establish systems for "flexible work styles" such as teleworking and shorter working hours to support employees with children. Employees with preschool children aged 3 and up must be allowed to choose from these options. Employers will also be required to confirm workers' preferences regarding their hours and job locations during their or their spouses' pregnancy and child birth.

Raising minimum wages

Each of Japan's 47 prefectures will raise their minimum wages one after another. The national weighted average will rise by 66 yen to 1,121 yen per hour, surpassing the 1,000-yen (approx. $6.76) mark across all prefectures.

Tokyo will top the list of prefectures with high minimum wages at 1,226 yen (approx. $8.29), while Kochi, Miyazaki and Okinawa prefectures will share the bottom spot at 1,023 yen (about $6.92). Tochigi Prefecture will raise its minimum wage first, on Oct. 1, while Akita Prefecture's will take effect last, on March 31, 2026.

Auto insurance rates will also see hikes

Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co. will raise its auto insurance premiums by an average of around 8.5%. This comes in response to soaring repair costs due to high prices and increased insurance payouts stemming from natural disasters, marking the second hike of its kind since January.

Sompo Japan Insurance Inc., Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Co. and Aioi Nissay Dowa Insurance Co. also plan to raise their car insurance premiums by an average of between 6% and 7.5% in January 2026.

Japan Real Wages In July: Updated Sept. 28, 2025.

Japan's real wages in July revised down, fall for 7th straight month

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250926/p2g/00m/0bu/049000c

Ideas:

Real wages are always affected by inflation and the Japanese economy ever since the pandemic has been constrained by consistent inflation, which of course lowers the purchasing power of Japanese consumers.

Wage growth has been a challenge for the Japanese economy as, for the most part, Japan's wages are much lower than other advanced economies and has again been constrained by consistent stagflation and near zero GDP growth for a very long time.

Japan, traditionally, gives two bonuses a year, which may or may not make-up for the lower wages in Japan. But as inflation has even hit companies in Japan summer bonuses sometimes are not what Japanese workers expect which of course means less spending in the Japanese economy.

There is the possibility, that when Japanese companies increased wages in April, which is the normal fiscal start of the new year in Japan, that companies might have depleted any extra funds needed for the traditional summer bonus.

And it must be remembered that up to 70 percent of Japanese workers don't work for the name-brand large Japanese companies but work for small and mid-size companies that don't have the needed resources to match what large Japanese companies give in wage increases, which again might mean less spending in the Japanese economy.

Nominal wages are really not important as they are not adjusted for inflation which means real wages are whats important for a consumer as real wages can determine what a workers purchasing power is or how much they can actually spend in an economy.

And to be sure, consumer spending in the Japanese economy has been constrained for a long time due to consistent inflation in Japan, and consumer spending makes up about 50 percent of Japan's GDP, which is probably not high enough to really improve economic growth.

Again the nominal increase wages just indicates how much inflation has increased in Japan which means that inflation has not decreased much and has put a constraint on much of the Japanese economy and especially again consumer spending in Japan.

The Japanese consumer price index has consistently, ever since the pandemic has been higher than normal or what's good for an economy and its consumers.

As was noted in previous articles even though there were gains in real wages but due to inflation being consistently higher than wage increases they were still not enough to overcome inflation in Japan. which again means consumers in Japan were less better off as wages haven't been able to help the average Japanese consumer with any extra disposable income needed to spend in the Japanese economy.

And again, it must be remembered that only about 30 percent of the Japanese work-force works for the large name-brand companies in Japan. The other 70 percent of the work-force work for small and mid-size companies which don't have the needed resources to pay the same wage increases which means that maybe 70 percent of the Japanese work-force might not have the needed disposable income to spend in the Japanese economy to help the economy grow.

Have a nice day!

Spending in Japan: Updated Sept. 29, 2025.

Clothing, footwear spending in Japan in 2024 halved from bubble-era period

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250925/p2g/00m/0li/017000c

Ideas:

Consumer spending in Japan has always been a challenge is the Japanese just don't spend like US consumers do as the Japanese, for the most part, are more savers than spenders.

Being a saver is good for the individual or family but not good for an economy as for example businesses that save are good for a business but not good for investments or spending in an economy.

Back in the day during the 1980's economic boom in Japan spending might have been out of control or there was a lot of spending maybe thinking that the boom could last forever, which of course it didn't.

Strained budgets are been a part of the Japanese economy for a very long time, as for example many Japanese companies, in the early 2000's decided to limit wage increases for their workers.

As a result, as normal, Japanese workers began to cut-back on their spending which might have caused the Japanese economy to become stagnant and not grow with eventually resulted in deflation.

Only recently, the past two years have Japanese companies have begun to loosen the purse strings have begun to increase wages to help improve the economy and or from pressure from the Japanese government to increase wages to help the economy grow.

Yes, for the most part, except for needed essential clothing, clothing can be considered important but not an essential product to buy every week or every month but just once or twice a year at the most.

And yes, food is very much an essential item and needs to be bought every day or every week as needed, depending on a families style or an individuals style, as some Japanese families might be fresh food every day at the local supermarket and or some might bu bentos or boxed meals as needed as they go home from work.

Yes, as Japanese consumer begin to see less and less in their disposable incomes they might see the need to find clothing bargains and or seek out clothing stores that offer prices which match their budgets.

Today's Japanese mindset among consumers maybe now are getting used to the idea of flea markets and secondhand clothing as needed to keep their budgets from getting too bloated due to increased inflation in Japan.

And yes, fast fashion companies such as GU, Uniqlo, and maybe Zara and H&M are good places to buy as they might be better alternatives than the more traditional clothing shops in Japan.

The traditional clothing shop in Japan, while providing high quality products might not be the best choice for the average Japanese family these days.

And yes, the upper-middle class and other groups might still buy from the traditional high-priced shops but now they might be out of reach for again the average Japanese family of even the lower-middle class family that can't afford to go to Ginza and from the ups-scales stores  in some places in Tokyo.

The spending habits of the average Japanese consumer is changing like it is in many countries globally these days and companies need to be aware that what is good today might not be good tomorrow as consumer spending habits and tastes are are always changing.

Have a nice day!

German Companies Relocating to Japan: Ideas Later.

German companies choosing Japan as Asia manufacturing hub: survey

Article source:  https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/09/22/companies/german-companies-japan-survey/

Article to be deleted after commentary.'

Article:

German companies in Japan see the country as a manufacturing hub for Asia — and not just as a sales market — with stability, affordability and proximity to major markets cited as top draws, according to a survey by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Japan (AHK Japan).

Regulatory robustness and relative affordability of operation, due to the weakness of the yen against the euro, contribute to Japan being an attractive choice for manufacturers. Japan’s proximity to other large markets in Asia, including Southeast Asia and China, also adds to its allure.

There are some 730 German companies in Japan, of which 84 operate production or assembly sites at 132 locations. In the report released last week, based on a survey of 34 German businesses in Japan, 41% of the respondents said they export Japan-manufactured products to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, 38% said they ship to China, and 29% to North America.

“German companies want to be ready to mitigate any unexpected surprises,” said Marcus Schurmann, CEO of AHK Japan, noting that global turbulence had resulted in companies looking to establish production plants in Japan and in other countries in Asia.

Many German manufacturers have a long-established relationship with Japan, with 76% of companies surveyed having been producing in the country for over 20 years. Of these, 57% said they plan to expand or are already expanding their production footprint in Japan.

Japanese and German companies also have underlying similarities in the way they approach business relationships.

“Germany and German companies are interested in long-lasting business relations. Companies are aware that, in Japan, the decision-making process requires time. ... But the relationship is typically a lasting business relationship,” Schurmann said.

Proximity to customers was cited as a motivating factor in choosing Japan (79%) as a hub, while 38% of respondents cited stability of supply chains. Consideration of supply chains and mitigating political risk have developed as an area of concern for many global businesses.

A separate survey conducted by AHK Japan and KPMG last year showed that 38% of German companies were relocating their production facilities from China to Japan, with 94% of such companies saying they valued Japan's economic stability.

“In times of geopolitical turbulence and economic challenges, Japan proves to be a safe haven. Globally, the country continues to achieve top scores, with a strong reputation for its reliability,” a summary of the report read.

Japan has many positive qualities, but the market does face some challenges — such as talent acquisition and retention, particularly as demand for skilled workers grows.

The most recent survey found that while staffing is more affordable in Japan compared with in Germany, sourcing talent is difficult.

“The shortage of skilled labor remains a key challenge: 82% cite the recruitment and retention of qualified employees as their biggest difficulty. Skilled machine and plant operators, technicians, and technical specialists are in highest demand. Moreover, 50% of companies now require English skills for managerial positions in manufacturing,” it said.

The survey, which is the first of its kind, encompasses 34 German businesses in Japan spanning the industries of mechanical engineering, medical supplies and health care, automotive suppliers and chemicals and pharmaceuticals.

OECD Economic Growth: Updated Sept. 29, 2025

OECD lifts 2025 growth outlook on front-loaded output before tariffs

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250924/p2g/00m/0bu/003000c

Ideas

Yes many countries are going to increase production and or trade before US tariffs come into full effect as way to beat the tariff situation the best they can.

Maybe, as its known now, international trade is not going to be the same, at least for the time being, and or a more liberal leaning president in the US, who understands international trade a little better comes into power.

It sounds good but an estimate of 1.1 percent in 2025, might be a little too optimistic as the Japanese economy usually doesn't even grow that much, but it might happen if the data is correct.

Firm investment is actually part of Japan's GDP so it might be possible that companies have decided to invest as they might feel the Japanese economy is going to grow in the future, despite the tariff situation.

Japan, like most advanced economies now, place a lot of emphasis on corporate earnings as Japan has become more of a western style market economy with stockholder value at the core of many large name-brand companies these days.

The growth of China has been a little less than usual as 4.9 percent is not where it usually is but that's normal for a growing economy as the more it grows, overtime, it begins to grow less and less, and a country needs more resources to continue to grow.

And as usual, like many countries or economies, fiscal spending is used to help the economy grow at times.

Yes, front-loading will not last that long and when the tariff situation actually goes into effect many countries might begin to see investments and trade begin to decrease.

Of course not all trade and investments will disappear but over time there could be a substantial decrease from quarter to quarter or even year to year, which potentially could see many counties' GDP's decrease.

Recently it seemed in the US big tech was spurring the US economy but due to the tariff situation that might change as even big tech in the US is going to be effected by the tariffs.

And US immigration is going to be effected with unfortunately high-skilled labor needed by high tech companies are going to see a significant decrease in workers form countries such as India and China. where many of the high tech workers come from.

The US, overall, just doesn't produce enough high tech workers to meet the needs of US high tech companies, and has been noted, innovation, potentially, is going to suffer in the US.

Yes, despite all of its challenges, the US economy is still the envy of the world. Yes, China is big and somewhat growing but it still can't match the US economy.

Even at 1.5 percent growth for a so-called mature economy its still a growing economy as it hasn't settled into a real mature economy yet for example Japan has or many European countries have, with little or no growth.

Have a nice day!

Japan CPI In August: Updated Sept. 22, 2025.

Japan's CPI in August rises 2.7% on high food prices

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250919/p2g/00m/0bu/007000c

Ideas

The pace of increase might have slowed but for sure food prices are still too high in Japan for many Japanese families and especially the lower-income groups.

Maybe for most middle-class families the price of food is too high too but for the upper-middle class they might not notice the high food prices too much depending on the what they buy.

And definitely the fixed-income groups living from month to month on their pensions food prices are just too high at they have to use even more of the total income to buy for food.

The Japanese government needs to find a way to keep energy prices to a reasonable level and or find a way to get some energy trade agreements that can ensure normal prices for coal, gas, and oil as Japan, unfortunately, is a resource-poor county and has to import much of what it needs.

Subsidies are both a positive and a negative as someone gains from the subsidies and someone has to pay for the subsidies.

The average Japanese family of course gains from the subsidies by paying less but again, either the importers, the wholesalers might not get the benefit of the subsidies and usually the government might pay for the difference between the actual cost of the energy and what the subsidy offers which means the government debt could increase even more.

Core CPI is probably still too high for most Japanese families even though it has decelerated in recent months. It should be remembered that its possible that it has decelerated by government of intervention with subsidies and not because of normal market activity.

Again, government subsidies might be needed help, but they can't be relied to fix everything in a economy where prices might be too high or out of control, as too much government intervention in a market economy disrupts the normal flow of economic activities.

Japan has had continued inflation its seems since the pandemic and it hasn't subsided that month except for maybe in the past few months, but at the same time its probably still too high for most Japanese consumers.

Prices for food, excluding fresh items, might be most processed foods might have to be imported which means they are subject to a weak Japanese yen, which means the price of processed food might be too high.

And then there is the global challenge of chocolate and coffee beans which are seeing prices globally at or near all time highs in most economies.

Rice is a major staple for the average Japanese diet and its strange that rice prices became almost out of control for a year and whomever were unable to control the price of rice in the local supermarkets and stores.

You would think, with rice being such an import food product in Japan that again, whomever, would keep it under control with the supply always be enough to not cause shortages in stores or supermarkets.

Eggs are a product that is always subject to either the weather and or animal diseases and challenges which can affect supply and demand of the product.

There are some food products, if possible for the good of society, that should not be subject to the challenges of supply and demand and if possible, the prices should be kept steady with both government and the market finding ways to keep foods such as eggs, milk, bread, rice, and some meat at levels that all families can afford.

Service companies usually have very thin profit margins which means they have very little room related to increases in material costs, energy costs, and especially wage increases.

And most likely service type companies are the first to increase prices and or pass-on their cost to the next in the supply chain which usually means the final retail customer.

Government subsides are good and might be needed in cases where the market is unable to control the price of some products or commodities such energy prices to due external factors.

But they should be used sparingly, if possible, as not to disrupt the normal flow of a market economy as subsidies can distort what is actually happening in an economy over the long term if used too long.

Most central banks, including the Bank of Japan prefer to keep inflation around 2 percent as most feel 2 percent is where the economy is moving at a good rate of flow and if inflation is too low it might indicate there is not enough economic activity in an economy and if its too fast it might mean an economy is moving too fast as might be considered and over-heating economy.

Have a nice day!

Japanese Exports: Updated Sept. 24, 2025.

Japanese exports to US fall 14% in Aug., down for 5th straight month

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250917/p2g/00m/0bu/025000c

Ideas:

For most of the last 50 years Japan has depended on exports to help grow its economy as, for the most part, exports was its only real economic driver.

Japan should have known, for a long time, that it can't depend on export forever as the US tariff situation is going to significantly reduce some export products to the US.

Japan for whatever reason just hasn't been able to develop and other real economic drivers to help its economy, as for better or worse other industries in Japan just hasn't evolved into an economic driver that can grow the economy.

So might say foreign tourists, with it record numbers, might become an economic driver but so far, while its growing, it hasn't reached the level of a Spain or France yet in numbers needed to be a significant economic driver.

Japan has always been focused on maintaining as positive trade surplus, as while its a resource-poor country, its imports haven't yet reached the level of imports increasing more than exports which would make it a trade deficit county like the US.

The problem is the current account in Japan is dependent on exports to pad the current account, which is like a country's bank account and much of what it needs for programs comes out of its current account, not to mention that the Japanese yen currency situation is related to the current account.

Japanese exports to the US have been it most important export and along with car parts make up as significant part of the exports to the US.

Again, besides Japanese car and Japanese car parts, Japan really hasn't been able to develop any other significant exports that can grow the Japanese economy.

Back in the day, the 1980's for example, Japan had many companies that were global leaders but overtime all of these companies, except for Toyota have slipped and didn't innovate, including Sony and Mitsubishi which are not just shells of their former selves.

While the tariff rate was reduced to 15 percent that is still going to affect exports to the US, and when companies in the US and even Japan begin to pass-on the tariffs to the next in the supply chain including the final customer, customers are going to think twice about buying Japanese products, which is going to affect companies in Japan and of course Japanese workers which means they are not going to spend as much as before in Japan.

While the tariff situation is not so good the real problem is the required investments that countries are required to do in the US and for the most part, its out of control about when and where they can do the investing.

Not to complain or criticize but someone in the US administration just doesn't know or really care about the workings of international trade or international economics.

International trade makes everyone better off and its not a zero sum game where one person win and one person loses, as trade makes everyone better off, but again they of course know it but they don't care.

Yes, the tariff situation could affect many parts of the Japanese economy including wage hikes, future business investment, and or course consumer spending in Japan as Japanese workers might not get future increased wage hikes which means they might not spend as much in the Japanese economy.

For the most part, there is/was no way any country could see this coming a year ago, but it has been known for a long time the current president of the US wanted tariffs for the US economy but never really talked about it that much until this year.

The problem is, again, Japan has depended on exporting to the US for a very long time, and really hasn't been able to develop any other sectors which could help grow its economy.

At one time ship building was a major industry in Japan and as global leader but China and South Korea passed them and its a shell of it's former self.

And the same with semiconductors at one time, Japan was again a global leader but let Taiwan and South Korea gain significant market share related to semiconductors. To Japan's credit it has begun to invest heavily in the semiconductor sector again.

There is always going to be this friction between import and exports, as for the most part, there is never a positive flow related to both as some months imports will be up and some months they will be down and the same with exports.

But for the Japanese economy, as the Japanese yen is weak, its helps Japanese export companies as the weak yen gives them more for the product they sell in the US while the opposite is true for imports and a weak Japanese yen, increases the price of import into Japan, which means imports, most likely, will pass-on the prices increases to the next in supply chain including the final retail customer.

China, for better or worse, just hasn't been the country it was ten or even 15 years ago as many countries seem to be experiencing the same challenges.

But, again, for better or worse, China is still an export powerhouse and it still exports to many countries.

There was a recent article that said many German companies, which have manufacturing plants in China are now looking to move to Japan as they feel Japan is a more stable economy.

While Japan might be experiencing challenges with exporting to China it seems have a robust trade situation with the rest of Asia, as a 25. 3 percent increase in exports is a very significant situation for Japan.

But the same can't be said with the EU, as the EU seems like the sick child for international trade globally.

It could be related to the Ukraine war situation or it could be related to a few countries in the EU and not every county, as there are 27 countries in the EU and some of them might have positive trade situations with Japan and some might not.

Have a nice day!

BOJ and Wage Trend: Updated Sept. 19, 2025.

BOJ to release wage trend data from 2027 in Tankan survey

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250911/p2g/00m/0bu/046000c

Ideas

It seems there are already a lot of surveys related to all kinds of activities in Japan by almost every organization conceivable but I guess the Bank of Japan wants its own survey to feel most secure and reliable about the wage data.

It's possible, but not conceivable, that the surveys coming from the labor and company organizations could be slightly off or are padded to make the wage information look better than it really is. 

For example, as wages for small and mid-size companies are always a little suspect as they are less than large company salary increases they could be made to look better as way to show that that companies are increasing wages which a lot when reality it might not be that much of a wage increase.

Yes, not all companies cooperate in surveys as they might feel embarrassed with the wage increases they are giving their workers and or want or need to be secretive about their wages for competitive reasons.

At the same time it might not be easy to get some companies to cooperate as they might not have the resources needed to reply to a survey from an organization.

It's the small and mid-size companies that need to most help with wage increases and it would be in their best interest to cooperate so that government organizations can plan ways to help them, otherwise government and other organizations are in the dark about small and mid-size companies situations.

Data information is good and needed but will it influence companies to increase wages which is sorely needed in Japan to help the economy grow and combat continued inflation.

If other companies see that wages are increasing the might be less hesitant to increase wages for their employees too.

But at the same time, some or many small and mid-size companies just don't have the resources needed to match what other companies are doing.

And with there being a real labor shortage in Japan now some might want to increase wages to keep or get new employees but they just don't have the resources needed to do it.

The June survey and the December survey goals seem very good but what's to keep some companies from not giving the correct information as a way to look good in the eyes of the BOJ.

There is always a chance, as with any survey, that the survey participants will not fully comply with the survey and will make it look better for them.

Small firms are always having difficulty with keeping up with bigger ones and its not just in Japan its a global situation as the large companies, globally always have more resources than the smaller companies.

But maybe in Japan its even more pronounced as their is always a huge gap between the haves, the large companies, and the have nots, the small and mid-size companies due to a huge gap in resources.

The tariff situation is definitely going to affect Japanese companies, which ultimately will affect Japanese consumers but when will it really be seen. It could begin September or the 3rd quarter as the new tariff rates go into effect.

And then there is the Bank of Japan having to decide what do to as the US Federal Reserve just cut its rate, due the US economy slowing and job growth really slowing which means whenever the US reserve cuts or increases it rate central banks globally begin to look and decide if they will follow with a rate cut just not at this time.

And yes, inflation in Japan is above the 2 percent goal for inflation in Japan, which  is actually the goal of many central banks to keep inflation around 2 percent as they feel its a manageable level and shows an economy is moving enough for economic growth but not too much.

Have a nice day!

Japan Business Sentiment: Updated Sept. 12, 2025.

Japan firms' mood turns positive as tariff fears ease: gov't survey

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250911/p2g/00m/0bu/026000c

Ideas

Japanese businesses have not had much to be positive about in recent months so maybe they see a little daylight at the end of the tunnel now with the improved tariff situation.

Japan in recent years, as lost a lot of market share to both Taiwan and South Korea related to semiconductor chips.

Unfortunately the Japanese economy has not been that robust and mostly has been stagnant for a very long time and it really doesn't look that good for the future.

Probably back in the April-June quarter there wasn't much to be positive about as the Trump tariffs were given in April and probably made most business exporters in Japan stressed.

An improvement doesn't mean much if companies don't do anything but its a good indication they think sales and profits are not going to be as affected as much from the tariffs, and they might improve their investments and hope to improve their exports, globally, and the US.

Sometimes it only takes some improved sentiment or an improved positive outlook for businesses and the economy to start growing again.

An economy is very complex with many different sectors and all of those sectors are not going to be all positive or even all negative as there is always going to be a mix of both positive and negative in an economy depending on companies circumstances.

It seems this time there are more positive that negative but again we don't know the exact numbers as it could 51 percent positive and 49 percent negative which is really not that much of a different between both,which means business sentiment, while improved still needs to improve more, if possible.

Japan is a heavy manufacturing economy compared to the US and the EU which have shifted more to a services and technology focused economies.

And yes, due to the tariffs, Japanese manufacturing is not going to be as positive as the non-manufacturing sector in Japan which is probably more focused on the domestic economy.

Japan, it seems for too long Japan has been focused on manufacturing while most economies, other than China, have  moved on from manufacturing and moved to a more balanced economy of some manufacturing, some services, and some technologies.

Normally, large major companies have more resources and can outlast most negatives in an economy except for of course normal market situations.

The problem is that small and mid-size companies don't have enough resource to outlast any major economic situations such as the tariff situation which is going to stress out many as they just don't have the needed resources to handle any real shocks in the economy.

Even though there were 11,000 companies that responded, and again, maybe not all of the 11,000 were 100 percent positive about the future of the economy or what is happening now with the tariff situation.

Again it could be 5,501, that were positive, and 4,999 that were negative about the future of the economy as it depends on each company's circumstances. 

These days, no economy is a buy only from the home country idea, but T and his ideas just don't match what is happening in the global economy these days. 

There are many many Japanese cars in the US as US consumers prefer a choice and not really interested in just a few car manufacturing models made in the US only.

The Japanese economy, while heaving dependent on exports and manufacturing have yet to find an new or different economic model or economic driver to growth its economy as technology companies and services, while improved in Japan haven't really turned into needed economic drivers to help with economic growth.

Small companies in Japan have been stress out for a very long time as they don't have enough resources to overcome all of the negatives that exists for them.

And ever since the pandemic they have faced increased raw material costs, increased energy costs and now and even before labor challenges related to the labor shortage and many Japanese workers wanting to work for large name-brand companies, which reduce the chances of getting good workers at small Japanese companies.

As a result small company profit margins have become too thin and they don't have any room to increase wages or even increase the minimum wage needed to hire good workers for their companies.

So there is no surprise that small Japanese companies are pessimistic and probably will continue to be pessimistic for a very long time.

Have a nice day!