Japan RCEP Trade Boost:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210320/p2g/00m/0na/026000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's government said Friday the domestic economy could be boosted by about 2.7 percent as a result of the world's largest free trade deal signed by 15 Asia-Pacific nations last year.

Calculated in terms of the country's real gross domestic product in fiscal 2019, the expected economic effect from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, involving Japan, China and South Korea, corresponds to a GDP increase of around 15 trillion yen ($140 billion), according to relevant Japanese ministries.

In its first published estimate of the impact of the multilateral trade pact covering about a third of global trade and population, the government predicted around 570,000 jobs would be created.

Ideas:

Governments always like to be positive. Yes the RCEP is definitely going to help the Japanese economy, and even more now with the economy in the middle of a pandemic.

It doesn't look like the Japanese economy is going to come back as quickly as expected with the Japanese government continuing to extend the emergency measures.

Will there be an increase of 570,00 jobs? That would be nice if it happens. But who knows the exact number.

With a new trade pact, it might bring new economic benefits, but it could also mean new competition in the market place, as more countries are open to new products and services and not just Japanese products

Article:

The projected boost is larger than the government's previous estimates of a 1.5 percent increase from the 11-member Trans-Pacific Partnership and a 1.0 percent rise from the economic partnership agreement with the European Union. The estimates for the TPP and the pact with the European Union were released in December 2017.

Acknowledging that the RCEP "could affect the economy significantly," a Foreign Ministry official told reporters it "will cover around 46 percent of Japan's total trade, compared with about 15 percent in the case of the 11-member TPP and about 12 percent in the case of the Japan-EU EPA."

But the official added it would take a "considerable" period of time for the impact to fully materialize.

Ideas:

Japanese was late to the game related to joining trade agreements, but the the TPP, the European trade agreement, and now the RCEP, it seems that Japan maybe is on equal footing with many countries.

If the US decided to return to the TPP that might even better for Japan and even US and Japanese consumers.

But the challenges have always been, with Japan agriculture and cars, as these seem to be protected areas that always seem to be off-limits in trade negotiations.

The aquiculture area seems to be heavily protected by the Japanese government and it doesn't look it really going to change that much soon. The 

The same can be said for cars. But to be fair and honest, even if there were less import taxes on some US cars, as an example, it still comes down to consumers and what they want. 

Most if not all US cars are not appealing to the Japanese consumer. Either because of price, quality, prestige or whatever.

The same can't be said for EU cars such as BMW, Mercedes, VW, and so on, as you can see plenty of these in Tokyo.

Yes, it might take some time before the Japanese economy sees any real affect from the RECP.

Article:

Signed last November, the deal will eliminate tariffs on 91 percent of goods and set common rules on investment, intellectual property and e-commerce. It is expected to reinvigorate supply chains in the region and make them more effective for businesses.

It is Japan's first trade deal involving both China and South Korea. China is Japan's largest trading partner in terms of the total sum of imports and exports, and South Korea is its third biggest.

Besides the three East Asian countries, the RCEP consists of Australia, New Zealand and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. ASEAN groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Ideas:

Again, even though the will be the elimination of tariffs on 91 percent of goods, that doesn't mean that there will be a reduction on agriculture products.

 It seems the Japanese government, before any negotiations begin, have already said rice and other products are off-limits as they are interested only in protecting the agriculture market.

And again even though Japan finally has some kind of free trade agreements with China and South Korea, not only will it open markets but at the same time increase competition in related to some products and services.

But then also there is the idea again of what consumers are willing to buy related to foreign products. 

Free trade agreements might open markets to new products but are consumers willing to buy products from all the countries involved? 

And who really is going to benefit from the trade agreement? Is the end user consumer, or is it the middlemen or wholesaler, who take the reduced price because of the reduction in tariffs, but then keep the price high, as usual, as if marketing it as a exotic product?

Article:

The pact will come into effect once it is ratified by any six of the ASEAN members and three of the other countries.

A special arrangement was made to facilitate the return of India, one of the founding members, exempting it from a rule barring new entrants to the framework for 18 months following the pact's entry into force.

India skipped all negotiations from November 2019 due to concern that its trade deficit with China would grow.

Ideas:

India would be an extra benefit to the trade agreement. But then again more competition as new products are now in play.

But Inha has traditionally been a hard market to enter. Is this really going to open up the India market, and what kinds or Indian products are consumers everywhere willing to buy. 

But again the same thing can be said for products from all countries and consumers from all countries. Just what will sell will be the big question as the trade agreement really gets going.

Have a nice day and be safe!