Japan Economy Watcher Sentiment:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210309/p2g/00m/0bu/032000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Business sentiment among workers with jobs sensitive to economic trends in Japan posted the largest rise in eight months in February, as the government began lifting its latest coronavirus state of emergency in stages amid a decline in infections, government data showed Monday.

The diffusion index of confidence in current conditions compared with three months earlier among "economy watchers" such as taxi drivers and restaurant staff rose 10.1 points from January to 41.3, according to a survey by the Cabinet Office.

The February index logged its first rise in four months, following a decrease of 3.1 the previous month, and its sharpest gain since June when the index gained a record 23.3 points.

Ideas:

Even thought there are always surveys that try to figure out what is happening or how people feel or what they might do, doesn't always mean that is what is going to happen.

For example those in the survey might begin to feel better but there might be just as many who don't feel better about the economy now or in the near future.

So all surveys or indexes should be taken with a "grain of salt" meaning it doesn't mean all "economy watchers" feel the same way.

There are thousands upon thousands of restaurants, and some might be doing better than others as some are OK, there might be some not so OK.

Article:

The office upgraded its assessment of the economy for the first time in four months, saying that "although the coronavirus pandemic still has a severe impact, there are signs of picking up."

But the index remained below the boom-or-bust line of 50 for the fourth consecutive month. A reading below 50 indicates that more respondents reported worsening conditions than improving.

Restaurants operators and some other businesses were asked to shorten their operating hours when Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga declared a second state of emergency for one month on Jan. 7 for the Tokyo metropolitan area. The premier expanded it later to a total of 11 prefectures.

Ideas:

Yes even though some might think the economy is picking up, the index indicates that there is a long way to go to get above the 50 line. 

Restaurants in particular have been hit hard as has the tourism industry, the hotel industry, the airline industry or any number of service industries still and in the near future.

It easy to say something is improving from with a 10 point increase but that is still way below the so-called bust line.

And lets say it does eventually get up to 51 or 55 for example. Does that mean now all is well?

Not exactly as even at 50+ its still a long way from many actually be positive about the economy.

Article:

The emergency declaration was lifted for Tochigi a month later and then for Aichi, Gifu, Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo and Fukuoka at the end of February.

With the Tokyo metropolitan area remaining under a recently re-extended state of emergency through March 21, concerns have grown over another resurgence of infections as the pace of decline has slowed recently.

There was a slight uptick in confidence across a myriad of sectors, with a convenience store employee saying in the survey that sales were recovering from January.

Ideas:

Sales might have recovered somewhat in conbinis but does that mean all is well?

Probably not as it doesn't mention profit margins or actual profits etc. So yes, sales might have gone up some, but how much is really needed for conbinis to be above the break even point?

And what about the mom and pop franchisee who living week to week on their stores sales when they have pay a certain percentage to the main company, and then how much is really left for them to live on?

Article:

However, the pandemic continued to negatively affect some others despite a decrease in infections, with the second state of emergency "leading to an increase in closed shops," according to a real estate agent.

A restaurant worker said that customers had steadily returned after the request for shorter business hours was removed but people continued to "be inclined to refrain from going out."

The office polled 2,050 workers from Feb. 25 to 28, of whom 1,812, or 88.4 percent, responded.

Ideas:

Yes, even though the restrictions might have been lifted it is going to take some time for consumers/customers to get back to pre-pandemic levels.

Yes, for example, you can see a large number of people everyday at the Shibuya crossing on You Tube and or as I hear from some in Yokohama, most of the Starbucks are full and or a lot of customers/people at Landmark tower does not mean all is well and many restaurants, that used to depend on late night customers most likely have not returned and will not in the near future.

As with many of the restaurants who depend on late night customers, these are probably office workers who work late, but now because of the pandemic choose to work from home and or if they are in the office, choose to go home instead of going to their usual late night drinking place or restaurant.

Have a nice day and be safe!