Japan Economy:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210308/p2g/00m/0bu/102000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan on Monday raised its economic assessment for January, the first upgrade in five months, saying there were signs of an "upturn" in growth as industrial output started recovering from the impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

The Cabinet Office's coincident index of business conditions rose 3.5 points from December to 91.7 against the 2015 base of 100, the first increase in three months.

The office said the economy has signaled an "upturn phase," compared with its evaluation of a "bottoming out" in the previous month.

Ideas:

An economy, any economy, is a very complicated organism. There are many parts moving in many directions at the same time.

While industrial output, in some industries or sectors might be improving does not actually mean all areas are improving.

And if you just want strictly at industrial output, does that mean every business related to industrial output are improving.

Again even in those in manufacturing, you might have some that beginning to show signs of moving forward, some that show signs of just maintaining, some that show signs of just hanging on, and some that show signs of not making it because of the virus situation or other factors

Article:

One step short of "improving," the most optimistic of its five assessment levels, the expression "upturn phase" was used for the first time since June 2013, when the depreciation of the yen helped export-oriented companies boost production.

For 12 straight months through July, the government had rated the economy as "worsening," the most pessimistic designation.

In January, shipments of items such as semiconductors and general-purpose machinery expanded notably as exports grew, according to a government official.

Ideas:

So its good that shipments of semiconductors and machinery improved, but those two areas might not be the only areas related to industrial output.

So again there might be some areas related to industrial output that are still just maintaining, meaning they are not really showing signs of improvement yet.

But there also is the idea of if some areas of an economy improved it might have an affect on other areas to begin to improve.

The reasoning being, that an economy is very interconnected and as such those area beginning to improve or not improve, will begin to affect other areas connected to them.

Article:

Still, the latest reading of 91.7 is lower than 94.8 marked in January last year, when the outbreak of the virus started affecting Japan.

The leading index of business conditions, forecasting the situation in the coming months, rose 1.4 points to 99.1 in the reporting month, following a 0.3 point decline in December.

Some economists have cast doubt over whether the coincident index reflects the actual state of the economy, saying the government focuses too much on data linked to the manufacturing sector rather than nonmanufacturers including service providers, which are still suffering from the impact of the coronavirus.

Ideas:

Yes, the coincident index, mostly might be considered a "best guess" as to what is happening in the economy. 

And yes, the manufacturing industry is just part of the 3rd largest economy in the world. There are many other parts of the economy.

Focusing too much on the manufacturing industry might be 20th century thinking and not 21st century thinking focusing on services, technology, and other areas.

Unfortunately government, governments, still think the manufacturing is the mainstay of an economy. Most economies have moved past the idea that to grow an economy it must focus on manufacturing when in fact most economies now are service and technology focused economies.

Have a nice day and be safe!