Japan Consumer Confidence

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210304/p2g/00m/0bu/115000c  

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's consumer confidence in February jumped despite the government's latest state of emergency to combat the novel coronavirus pandemic, government data showed Thursday.

The seasonally adjusted index of sentiment among households made up of two or more people climbed 4.2 points from last month to 33.8, up for the first time in three months to mark the second-largest gain since comparable data became available in April 2013, according to the Cabinet Office.

The reading logged the second sharpest increase on record, following a record 4.4 point gain in June last year, a month after the country's first state of emergency over the virus, which was declared nationwide, was fully lifted.

Ideas:

There could be many reasons why consumer confidence increased. Perhaps consumers just felt better about the present and the future, despite the pandemic situation. Or perhaps they just wanted to feel better even though they might have known things still might not be so good.

Consumers/people sometimes just want to make themselves feel good even though they know, its not so good.

But just because there is/was an increase in consumer sentiment doesn't always mean consumers are going to spend more.

Feeling good about the a situation, such as spending more, doesn't actually mean its going to happen.

Article:

A government official told reporters that the decisive factor affecting consumer sentiment is likely the number of virus cases rather than whether or not the country is under the emergency state.

"The average figure of daily new cases during this survey period was about 1,400, compared with some 6,000 in January, so that uplifted consumer sentiment," the official added. The latest survey was conducted between Feb. 6 and 22.

The state of emergency was first declared in April, with people being requested to stay home and nonessential businesses asked to suspend operations.

Ideas:

So a drop in the number of virus cases may have improved consumer sentiment with the idea that maybe they might begin start and spend more in the future, and or get out more in the future.

If businesses see the latest consumer sentiment index or survey, they might provide some incentives such as sales etc. to entice consumers to spend at their business.

This might just be an opening that some businesses need to entice consumers back to their business.

Such as hotel might provide some kind of incentive for a weekend stay or trip as they see consumers are now feeling better about what is going on.

Article:

Amid a resurgence of infections starting in November, a second virus emergency was declared on Jan. 7 for the Tokyo metropolitan region with less comprehensive measures compared to the initial emergency declaration.

After being expanded to 11 prefectures, it has since been scaled down and now only covers the Tokyo metropolitan region.

It was scheduled to end on Sunday, but Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has said it should be extended by about two weeks amid concerns about the recent slowing down in the decline of infections.

Ideas:

It is quite possible, also, that consumers have been waiting for almost a year for things to change, and even though they don't see perfect improvements or changes, any kind of change or improvement might be enough to get them out and about and start spending more again.

And at the same time, maybe some or many have just gotten used to the virus situation and now just feel the need to feel good about now and the future despite the continued situation.

And to be fair and honest, maybe some feel the measures really aren't making much of a difference so they are going to go out and do want they want when they want.

Article:

The Cabinet Office upgraded its basic assessment for the first time in five months, saying consumer sentiment has "remained in a severe situation, but shown signs of recovery." It said the previous month that sentiment was "weakening."

The survey covered 8,400 households, including 2,085 single-member households, with valid responses received from 7,595, or 90.4 percent.

Ideas:

Consumer sentiments indexes are an imperfect measure because they really can't predict what consumers are really going to do.

Consumers can fill out a survey on one day and the next day think or do the complete opposite.

Consumers are human beings meaning behavior is not always predictable as what is said on a survey.

Have a nice day and be safe!