Japan Manufacturer Sentiment:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210401/p2g/00m/0bu/036000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Sentiment among major Japanese manufacturers turned positive for the first time in six quarters in March, recovering to a pre-pandemic level amid growing expectations for an economic recovery, the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey showed Thursday.

The key index measuring confidence among companies such as automobile and electronics makers rose to 5 from minus 10 in December, rising for the third straight quarter.

The result beat the average market forecast of minus 2 shown in a Kyodo News survey.

Ideas:

Japanese manufacturers, who export globally, most likely are beginning to feel much better about the global economy. As consumer spending picks up globally, and as the vaccinations begin to increase, more economies will begin to get back to some kind of "new normal" but it might a long time before many economies can get back to anywhere near the pre-pandemic level.

This is very good for manufacturers but it doesn't tell the real story of the Japanese economy. It only shows a small slice of what is happening.

As there are still thousands of small and medium sized business who no where near a "new normal" as they are still just holding on hoping things can get to some kind of a pre-pandemic level.

Article:

The index for large nonmanufacturers, including the service sector, rose to minus 1 from minus 5 in the December survey.

The Tankan index represents the percentage of companies reporting favorable conditions minus the percentage reporting unfavorable ones.

Urban areas such as Tokyo were placed under a second state of emergency over the novel coronavirus for most of the period when the data for the quarterly Tankan survey was collected.

Ideas:

Especially, now with the pandemic still going on, there are companies are that positive about about business conditions and there of course are some who are not so positive about business conditions.

But even before the pandemic there were companies who were positive and there were  companies that were not so positive.

But that is how a market economy works. There are some that are going to be highly successful and positive, some that will be a little less positive, and some that are not doing so good and will even less positive.

The second state of emergency didn't help the economy if businesses are not allowed to operate its normal hours, and with of course less customers than normal.

Article:

The start of vaccinations in mid-February against the respiratory illness caused by the coronavirus has boosted hopes for economic recovery as the nation emerges from the pandemic, despite the divergence in the pace of recovery of manufacturers and service providers.

For manufacturers such as automakers, the outlook remains uncertain as concerns about a semiconductor shortage were exacerbated by a recent fire at a plant of Renesas Electronics Corp., a key supplier of chips to automakers.

The Japanese chip producer has said it will take up to four months for production to fully recover, raising concerns that major Japanese automakers will be forced to cut output.

Ideas:

Despite some good news regarding vaccinations, globally and now in Japan, there are still a lot of challenges ahead.

The fire ad the chip factory doesn't help along with Taiwan not beginning to experience and increase in virus variants in Taiwan.

Taiwan sometimes has been called a manufacturing powerhouse. With the new virus variants hitting Taiwan, its not good for car manufacturers or others how rely on chips from Taiwan.

It remains to be seen just how fast service providers can come back to some kind of normal.

As service providers provide person to person services, or many of them, it remains to be seen just how they can come to their pre-pandemic levels.

Article:

The confidence index for automakers jumped 23 points to 10 in December, turning positive for the first time since September 2019, though it is expected to worsen to 6 in the coming months.

Production equipment makers, which include those for semiconductors, were optimistic, with sentiment improving to 8, up 29 points from three months ago.

It is unclear how much of the impact expected from the production halt by the March 19 fire at the Renesas plant was factored into the latest survey conducted between Feb. 25 and Wednesday.

Hotels and dining establishments were pessimistic, sending the confidence index to minus 81 as they continued to bear the brunt of the pandemic's economic impact as people refrained from going out. Restaurants and bars in parts of Japan hit by increasing coronavirus cases have been asked to shorten business hours.

Ideas:

While the manufacturing industry might be coming back slowly, it remains to be seen what is going to happen with service providers such as hotel, restaurants, and most businesses related to tourism, both domestic and international.

If Tokyo is intent, in not allowing domestic or even international spectators at the Olympic Games, then that will continue to downward slide of those businesses.

But to be fair with the Tokyo Games leadership, most likely they might see this as the only real alternative to holding the Games.

But back to the services being hit hard. It might seem unfair to them, and it probably is, but how does it help when you have thousands of people, out and about all day long, especially on the weekends, such as places I know about in Yokohama, just as Yokohama station, Sogo department store at Yokohama station, Landmark Tower, with all the customers walking through there, as people tell me daily who live there, and not to mention all of the Starbucks that seem to be full everyday.

Article:

Going forward, the index for manufacturers, however, is expected to worsen slightly to 4 and that for nonmanufacturers is projected to remain unchanged at minus 1.

Large companies, defined as those with 1 billion yen ($9 million) or more in capital, expect a 3.0 percent increase in capital spending for fiscal 2021 that started Thursday.

Companies in the survey expect the U.S. dollar to trade at 106.07 yen in fiscal 2021, lower than the assumed rate of 106.66 yen for the previous business year.

The BOJ surveyed 9,478 companies, of which 99.0 percent responded.

Ideas:

Surveys are always important and needed to try and get the feel for what companies might be feeling and what they think they might do in the future.

But you can never rely completely on what surveys say. They are just estimates or guesses for what might be going on and what might happen.

For example the 3.0 percent increase in capital spending sounds good, but lets see if they really do it in the future.

And then the yen/dollar currency exchange is always something to consider.

Exporters prefer a weaker exchange rate while exporters prefer a stronger exchange rate, yen to the dollar for example.

A weaker exchange means exporters can usually get a higher price for their products sent to the US for example. While importers, with a strong exchange rate can usually get a lower price to bring a US product into Japan.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Bank of Japan News:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210330/p2g/00m/0bu/100000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Tuesday that cutting interest rates would be a "nimble and effective" monetary easing option following a recent review aimed at making the current policy framework sustainable in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.

Japan's economic activities and prices are expected to remain under downward pressure for an extended period and the central bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary, Kuroda told an event hosted by Kyodo News.

The BOJ carried out an assessment of its policy tools at its March 18-19 meeting as the pandemic has moved its already elusive 2 percent inflation target further away.

Ideas:

As businesses and consumers refrain from their usual economic activity prices will either remain flat or continue a downward spiral.

That might seem good for consumers, with lower prices, but its not good for the overall economy.

An economy needs a certain level of economic activity to grow and for prices to rise, so that not only are consumer benefitting, but also businesses too.

Reducing interests, may or may not, be an incentive for businesses and consumers to borrow money and use it in the economy, thus increasing economic activity.

There will be an acceleration affect, or could be, where more economic activity is an incentive for more economic and activity. 

As consumers begin to spend, businesses make more profits, then business begin to invest and so on, which eventually lead to an increase in many different sectors.

Article:

It decided to establish a scheme to mitigate the impact of potential rate cuts on financial institutions and encourage them to extend loans.

"This scheme enables the Bank of Japan to cut short- and long-term interest rates nimbly without hesitation while considering the impact on the functioning of financial intermediation," Kuroda said.

"Cutting those rates is an important option as a nimble and effective additional easing measure."

The BOJ chief said the review has "strengthened" the easing framework, in that it will enable the central bank to pursue monetary easing "more strongly than before."

Ideas:

Yes, reducing interest rates might be an incentive for business and consumers to increase their economic activity, but in many cases its not so good for financial institutions who would be losing profits, unless the BOJ is able to provide incentives for banks or even subsidies during the pandemic period.

Banks also need to be protected with some kind of subsidy and or the more loans they process at the lower rates, they can get a percentage it back from subsidies from the BOJ.

But then of course the banks might cut the rates and actually might get more business than before, which would or could offset the loss from the reduced rates and they now have more customers than before.

Article:

Prior to the review, the BOJ faced criticism that its program to keep short-term interest rates at minus 0.1 percent and guiding 10-year Japanese government bond yields around zero percent has made the bond market moribund and aggressive purchases of exchange-traded funds have distorted market functions.

The BOJ expanded the range in which the yield of 10-year government bonds is allowed to move to minus 0.25 percent to 0.25 percent from the previous, implicit target of minus 0.2 percent and 0.2 percent.

"Clarifying the (allowed) range of fluctuations is part of our efforts to strengthen communication with markets," Kuroda said in a question and answer session of the online event.

Ideas:

Bond market buyers need to have an incentive to buy bonds. If they rate is too low, there is no incentive to buy. But as the BOJ has done, it has now raised the rate to where it might be enough to stimulate the bond market. Or maybe not.

Fluctuating rates might actually be a good thing, because today, many economies are inter-connected to each other and government sometimes buy bonds from other countries.

At the same time the fluctuating rates are more able to respond to changes in global conditions.

Article:

Kuroda acknowledged that the tools the BOJ employs have become "complex" as it seeks to boost the effectiveness of monetary easing and address side-effects.

He said the bank believes it possible to achieve the 2 percent inflation target by continuing with monetary easing.

Japan's core consumer price index excluding volatile fresh foods dropped 0.4 percent in February from a year ago.

Ideas:

The BOJ has been trying to reach the 2 percent inflation target for many years with no success.

Perhaps during this pandemic period, the BOJ should set aside the 2 percent inflation goal and focus on helping all the business that are just barely surviving.

And then after the pandemic has past and more consumers begin to spend, more consumers have jobs again, then the BOJ can begin re-focus on the 2 percent goal.

Prices will continue to drop unless there is enough economic activity to push prices up. But that might not happen until the pandemic has passed.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Industrial Output:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210331/p2g/00m/0bu/047000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's industrial output in February fell 2.1 percent from the previous month as a strong earthquake that struck northeastern Japan disrupted parts supply for major automakers, reducing their production, government data showed Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted index of production at factories and mines stood at 95.7 against the 2015 base of 100, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a preliminary report. The result followed an upwardly revised 4.3 percent rise in January.

The auto sector led the decline, falling 8.8 percent from the previous month in the wake of the Feb. 13 earthquake. Automakers were also forced to cut production due to a global chip shortage, according to the ministry.

Ideas:

Industrial output is always very cyclical depending on many variables, including natural events such as earthquakes.

If the parts supply production factories are mostly located in the Tohoku region or northeastern Japan, then it would definitely have been a problem for automakers, for example in the Nagoya region where Toyota is located.

Indexes should only be a guide as to what might be happening and never taken as 100 percent truth as they never really tell the complete story of what might be happening.

Many times indexes tend to report on the large companies and not really the full economy, or maybe never about small and medium sized companies.

The global chip shortage is a trend and a concern. If Taiwan, which is a large chip producer, which is beginning to see challenges related to some new virus strains, it could cause more challenges for car makers in the future.

Article:

Makers of electrical machinery and information and communication electronics equipment saw a 2.9 percent decrease in reaction to a 7.6 percent boost in output in January, it said.

Despite the fall, the ministry maintained its assessment of industrial output, saying it is "picking up."

"Overall, the recovery trend in output is continuing," a ministry official said, adding that the earthquake was a one-off factor.

The ministry expects production to rise in the January-March period for the third straight quarterly increase.

Based on a poll of manufacturers, the ministry expects output to fall 1.9 percent in March and jump 9.3 percent in April.

Ideas:

An economy is very complex. And as such so is industrial output. 

Some industrial output might actually be improving and some might be decreasing.

Its just like in a real economy. Because there are so many moving parts of an economy, some parts of an economy might be showing real signs of growth or recovery, while some parts may be are a long way from a recovery or real growth.

Production may indeed improve for third straight quarter, which is always good. But there is a long way to go before it reaches pre-pandemic levels.

Output again is very cyclical depending on variety of factors. 

Article:

But the ministry cautioned that the surveys, conducted by March 10, do not factor in developments in the novel coronavirus pandemic that occurred later in the month, such as a resurgence of infections in areas where the government's state of emergency was lifted.

The polls were also conducted before the March 19 fire at a plant of major Japanese chipmaker Renesas Electronics Corp., which fueled concerns amid the global supply crunch of semiconductors, especially those for vehicles.

Renesas said Tuesday full-scale semiconductor production at the fire-hit plant might only resume in June.

"The fire could pose a downside risk to production," the official said.

In February, the index of industrial shipments decreased 1.5 percent to 94.4 while that of inventories fell 1.0 percent to 94.3.

Ideas:

The virus seems to come in waves as the emergency situation is lifted and the re-instated in different prefectures.

The fire at a major Japanese chip maker had to be concern for those companies that relied on chips from that company.

It just goes to show that companies, as much as possible should have more than one supplier available as needed in case of emergency situations occur.

Just as the pandemic in 2020 caused major logistical and supply chain problems, companies now need to be able to make sure they are flexible enough, if possible to guard against major disruptions in supply chain challenges and logistical challenges as much as possible.

Again indexes are nothing more than a glimpse into what be happening. They should never be taken as 100 percent truth on any area of an economy.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Jobs:

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210330/p2g/00m/0bu/058000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's job availability logged its first drop in five months in February amid the government's second state of emergency over the coronavirus pandemic, government data showed Tuesday.

The job-to-applicant ratio worsened to 1.09 from 1.10 in January, according to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, meaning there were 109 job openings for every 100 job seekers. But it was still higher than 1.05 marked in December.

Separate data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed the February jobless rate stood at 2.9 percent, unchanged from the previous month.

Ideas:

A job applicant ratio of 109 to 100 jobs would be very welcome in many parts of the world.

That means, potentially, there might be a lot of jobs for job seekers to choose from.

But the big question is what kind of jobs are being offered? Are they jobs with good benefits and good salaries or are they jobs such as contract or temporary type jobs.

And the 2.9 percent jobless rate really doesn't tell the full story. However,  the jobless rate never tells the full story in any country.

How many people have given up searching or looking for a job? 

Article:

In response to a third wave of virus infections that began in November, Japan declared its second state of emergency over the coronavirus pandemic in early January in the Tokyo metropolitan area and expanded it to other regions later, asking dining establishments to close early and people to refrain from unnecessary outings.

The measure was lifted in stages but in place for the Tokyo metropolitan area until March 21.

"The impact of the state of emergency on the jobless rate was not as significant as that of the first one declared last spring," a government official told reporters.

Ideas:

The groups that seem to really be affected are the restaurants and place similar. As far as people refraining from unnecessary outings, from what I been told from those in Japan, except for working at home for some, things seem normal or feel normal.

Maybe are not going to restaurants as much in the night and or not going to similar places at night but what my observers say, things appear somewhat normal.

The jobless rate again doesn't really the the whole story about what is happening, as there are many who have given up looking for a job.

Article:

The government's first state of emergency, effective nationwide from April to May last year with more comprehensive requests for nonessential businesses to suspend operations and for people to stay home, triggered a sharp deterioration of employment conditions as well as the country's worst recession on record.

The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed was 2.03 million, unchanged from January. Among them, 710,000 people voluntarily left their jobs, down 30,000, while 660,000 were laid off, up 30,000, and 560,000 were new job seekers, up 10,000.

The number of people in work rose 30,000 from the previous month to 66.97 million, up for the second consecutive month.

Ideas:

The idea of 710,000 voluntarily leaving their jobs seems questionable. Maybe if they were offered incentives to leave then that would be a reasonable explanation.

Especially in the hard hit services or tourism industries.

While the 660,000 who were laid of does seem explainable again in the services and tourism industries hit the hardest.

Japan has always been, or so it seems, a country where new job seekers such as high school and college graduate are/were able to find a job of their choosing. But maybe the pandemic has closed that door, at least for now.

Article:

Meanwhile, the number of unemployed people increased 350,000 to 1.94 million in February from a year earlier, up for the 13th straight month, suggesting the pandemic has continued to affect the labor market. The figure is unadjusted for seasonal factors.

By sector, the number of workers in the accommodation and food service industry dropped 460,000 from a year earlier to 3.59 million, bearing the brunt of the virus emergency. In contrast, those in education, plus the medical and welfare sector grew 250,000 to 3.55 million and 240,000 to 8.84 million, respectively.

The number of furloughed employees increased 320,000 from the previous year to 2.28 million in February, slower than a rise of 500,000 in January.

Ideas:

The pandemic may continue to affect the labor market for the rest of 2021. The Japanese economy might not get back to some kind of "new normal" until 2022, when most people have been vaccinated and the domestic and international tourism industry gets back to something resembling the pre-pandemic level.

Its easy to understand the increase in medical workers during the pandemic, but the education sector is puzzling is how they were able to add that many jobs.

As more and more business are trying to hang on maybe some of them have finally given in and began to furlough or even lay off workers to survive.

Article:

"In addition to the government's continuous support, efforts by firms, such as dispatching furloughed workers to sectors in need instead of laying them off, are likely to have prevented further deterioration of the employment situation," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

But Minami said he does not expect the jobless rate to improve markedly in the near future, saying restaurants and bars in some areas are still being asked to cut their operating hours even after the virus emergency has been lifted, although the requested closing time was extended by one hour to 9 p.m.

Ideas:

The idea that Japanese companies have moved their workers around to help those sectors in need is a quality that other countries should think about doing.

But at the same time, maybe its unique to Japan and not exactly easy to do in other economies.

The later Peter Drucker, the management consultant, always said that workers should be a resource and not considered  a cost to be laid or fired, meaning the worker is a companies most important resource.

He also said Japan, more than any other country has taken that to heart.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Govt. View on Economy:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210324/p2g/00m/0bu/020000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The government on Tuesday retained its monthly economic assessment, saying weakness has been seen in some sectors as consumption remains sluggish due to the continued impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

A recovery in Japanese exports has been slowing, the Cabinet Office also said in the report, downgrading its view on the component for the first time in 10 months. Meanwhile, its views on business sentiment as well as the trend of bankruptcies were lifted amid signs of improvement.

"The Japanese economy shows weakness in some components" and remains in a "severe situation due to the coronavirus pandemic" although it continues to show signs of picking up, the office said in its overall assessment.

Ideas:

The Japanese economy will probably not be firing on all cylinders for a very long time.

Exports maybe eventually come back but other very important parts of the economy could take a year or more.

More specifically services and tourism might take even longer to reach pre-pandemic levels.

While many people are out and about, that doesn't mean they are out spending as before.

Its easy to see a lot of people at Shibuya crossing on You Tube, and in the stores or at Starbucks, but that is not the whole economy.

And economy is very complex and as such, there are many parts that will take a long time to recover

Article:

Last month, it downwardly revised the assessment for the first time since April last year during a state of emergency in Tokyo and other areas over the pandemic, which led authorities to demand people refrain from nonessential outings and restaurants and bars close early.

The emergency, declared in January, was fully lifted on Sunday.

Among components, the latest report continued describing private consumption as being "in a weak tone recently."

Ideas:

Yes consumption might not be where is should be. But that has always been a challenge for the Japanese economy.

Its seems that for the size of the Japanese economy, the 3rd largest in the world, consumer spending is not at level or potential it could be.

Part of the reason, of course, is the number of older citizens in Japan. Older citizens tend to spend less than younger age groups.

But if you look at the 20-65 age groups in Japan, it has been reported the amount of spending in the 20-65 age groups in Japan are equal to any 20-65 groups in any OECD country.

But the 65+ age groups in Japan, some reports say up to 30 percent of the population is getting larger each year.

Article:

Exports are "increasing at a slower pace recently," it said. The lower assessment is due largely to weaker growth in auto exports to the United States, an official of the Cabinet Office said.

As for how companies view the current business conditions, the government upgraded the category for the first time in eight months, citing "movements of picking up." But it added that "some severe aspects remain."

On bankruptcies, which had been on the rise due to the pandemic, the report said the number is now "decreasing," in the first upward revision in three months.

Ideas:

Exports might be a little slow but in another nearby country exports are beginning to pick up a lot.

And these two countries usually compete with the same kinds of products.

So it seems logical that Japan's exports are going to eventually start to increase too.

Business sentiment is always hard to predict. The Bank of Japan and or the Japanese government can take surveys, but these are usually only related to big companies and the Japanese economy is more than than large companies that always make the news.

And just what does "now decreasing" really mean? At what level are the bankruptcies decreasing is the question.

Article:

Looking forward, the government said Japan's economy is expected to recover on a pickup in overseas economies. But it also said the outlook largely depends on development in the pandemic.

"The emergency was lifted but I don't think it means that the situation over the virus has changed much. I believe people will remain cautious and refrain from going out to some extent," the official said.

Ideas:

If global demand begins to increase then there might be substantial increase in Japanese exports.

As more countries increase the number of citizens getting vaccinated it could be an increase in overall global demand.

But then there is still on the on-going problem of the virus variants spreading globally.

A lot remains to be seen just what is going to happen in the coming months.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan RCEP Trade Boost:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210320/p2g/00m/0na/026000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's government said Friday the domestic economy could be boosted by about 2.7 percent as a result of the world's largest free trade deal signed by 15 Asia-Pacific nations last year.

Calculated in terms of the country's real gross domestic product in fiscal 2019, the expected economic effect from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, involving Japan, China and South Korea, corresponds to a GDP increase of around 15 trillion yen ($140 billion), according to relevant Japanese ministries.

In its first published estimate of the impact of the multilateral trade pact covering about a third of global trade and population, the government predicted around 570,000 jobs would be created.

Ideas:

Governments always like to be positive. Yes the RCEP is definitely going to help the Japanese economy, and even more now with the economy in the middle of a pandemic.

It doesn't look like the Japanese economy is going to come back as quickly as expected with the Japanese government continuing to extend the emergency measures.

Will there be an increase of 570,00 jobs? That would be nice if it happens. But who knows the exact number.

With a new trade pact, it might bring new economic benefits, but it could also mean new competition in the market place, as more countries are open to new products and services and not just Japanese products

Article:

The projected boost is larger than the government's previous estimates of a 1.5 percent increase from the 11-member Trans-Pacific Partnership and a 1.0 percent rise from the economic partnership agreement with the European Union. The estimates for the TPP and the pact with the European Union were released in December 2017.

Acknowledging that the RCEP "could affect the economy significantly," a Foreign Ministry official told reporters it "will cover around 46 percent of Japan's total trade, compared with about 15 percent in the case of the 11-member TPP and about 12 percent in the case of the Japan-EU EPA."

But the official added it would take a "considerable" period of time for the impact to fully materialize.

Ideas:

Japanese was late to the game related to joining trade agreements, but the the TPP, the European trade agreement, and now the RCEP, it seems that Japan maybe is on equal footing with many countries.

If the US decided to return to the TPP that might even better for Japan and even US and Japanese consumers.

But the challenges have always been, with Japan agriculture and cars, as these seem to be protected areas that always seem to be off-limits in trade negotiations.

The aquiculture area seems to be heavily protected by the Japanese government and it doesn't look it really going to change that much soon. The 

The same can be said for cars. But to be fair and honest, even if there were less import taxes on some US cars, as an example, it still comes down to consumers and what they want. 

Most if not all US cars are not appealing to the Japanese consumer. Either because of price, quality, prestige or whatever.

The same can't be said for EU cars such as BMW, Mercedes, VW, and so on, as you can see plenty of these in Tokyo.

Yes, it might take some time before the Japanese economy sees any real affect from the RECP.

Article:

Signed last November, the deal will eliminate tariffs on 91 percent of goods and set common rules on investment, intellectual property and e-commerce. It is expected to reinvigorate supply chains in the region and make them more effective for businesses.

It is Japan's first trade deal involving both China and South Korea. China is Japan's largest trading partner in terms of the total sum of imports and exports, and South Korea is its third biggest.

Besides the three East Asian countries, the RCEP consists of Australia, New Zealand and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. ASEAN groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Ideas:

Again, even though the will be the elimination of tariffs on 91 percent of goods, that doesn't mean that there will be a reduction on agriculture products.

 It seems the Japanese government, before any negotiations begin, have already said rice and other products are off-limits as they are interested only in protecting the agriculture market.

And again even though Japan finally has some kind of free trade agreements with China and South Korea, not only will it open markets but at the same time increase competition in related to some products and services.

But then also there is the idea again of what consumers are willing to buy related to foreign products. 

Free trade agreements might open markets to new products but are consumers willing to buy products from all the countries involved? 

And who really is going to benefit from the trade agreement? Is the end user consumer, or is it the middlemen or wholesaler, who take the reduced price because of the reduction in tariffs, but then keep the price high, as usual, as if marketing it as a exotic product?

Article:

The pact will come into effect once it is ratified by any six of the ASEAN members and three of the other countries.

A special arrangement was made to facilitate the return of India, one of the founding members, exempting it from a rule barring new entrants to the framework for 18 months following the pact's entry into force.

India skipped all negotiations from November 2019 due to concern that its trade deficit with China would grow.

Ideas:

India would be an extra benefit to the trade agreement. But then again more competition as new products are now in play.

But Inha has traditionally been a hard market to enter. Is this really going to open up the India market, and what kinds or Indian products are consumers everywhere willing to buy. 

But again the same thing can be said for products from all countries and consumers from all countries. Just what will sell will be the big question as the trade agreement really gets going.

Have a nice day and be safe!