Japan GDP in 2020:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210215/p2g/00m/0bu/035000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's economy contracted 4.8 percent in real terms in 2020 from the previous year, the second sharpest margin of contraction on record given the impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic, government data showed Monday.

Real gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services produced in a country adjusted for inflation, marked the first decrease since it shrank 5.7 percent in 2009, the biggest contraction since data began to be compiled in 1955, according to the preliminary data released by the Cabinet Office.

The negative growth in 2009 was logged in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Ideas:

What really does a 4.8 or a 5.7 decrease really mean? The real question to be asked it how did it affect the average person or the average family or the average small business?

Its easy and needed to show what happened or what is happening but even more important is what does the average family or average business feel or think when they hear or see those statistics?

If the average person or family or business doesn't feel much of an affect then most likely the numbers don't really mean much.

But of course if they know those who are were/are affected by the contraction then they might have some kind of feelings about it.

But then there is the overall affect on consumers in an economy if they constantly hear news about how the economy is doing then they might begin to not feel so good themselves and their future etc. and maybe begin to think about how much they are spending or using in the economy.

Article:

Last year, private consumption fell 5.9 percent mainly due to stay-home requests under the government's nationwide state of emergency over the virus in spring.

Many major cities abroad entered hard lockdown, dampening demand for products such as cars and reducing Japan's exports by 12.3 percent.

On a quarterly basis, meanwhile, GDP in the October-December period grew a real 3.0 percent, or an annualized 12.7 percent, from the previous quarter as the world's third-largest economy continued to experience a strong recovery from a pandemic-induced slump.

Ideas:

Last spring it seemed globally the whole world was on pause and not sure what do to or what was going on.

By the time the summer came along consumers around the world began to wake up and began to get back to some kind of movement or consumer spending.

And by the time to fall came around it seemed most countries were getting back to some kind of "new normal" spending behavior, or so it seemed at the time.

Japan's exports in the spring last year took a big hit but as global consumer began to get back to some kind of "new normal" exports mostly like started to gain steam again in the fall.

Article:

Following an annualized 22.7 percent expansion in the previous three-month term, GDP grew by double-digit percentage for the second straight quarter, after the virus emergency caused it to shrink an annualized 29.3 percent in the April-June period, the largest on record.

Looking forward, many analysts predict Japan will post negative growth in the January-March period again, as Tokyo and nine other of the nation's 47 prefectures are currently under a second emergency amid a third wave of virus infections.

Ideas:

As a possible third wave has taken affect just how much will it dampen consumer spending in Japan an or overall economic growth in Japan remains to be seen.

As I listen to and survey those in Japan, it seems sometimes they say, some people have forgotten about virus already, as many stores and coffee shop seemed completely full.

So even if people/consumers are out and about how does that translate to consumer spending. 

Of course many are still working from home and not venturing back to where their offices are and of course the restaurants, conbinis, and coffee shops around the office buildings most likely are still not doing so good as before the pandemic.

Article:

The emergency, which Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga declared last month, is expected to end on March 7.

In nominal terms, or unadjusted for price changes, the economy shrank 3.9 percent in the reporting year, but expanded an annualized 10.5 percent, or 2.5 percent quarterly, in October-December.

The Cabinet Office is scheduled to release revised annual and quarterly GDP data on March 9.

Ideas:

Once again, talking to those in Japan etc. it seems even though there is/was a so-called lockdown many people/consumers were acting like it was back to normal as many people were out and about as spring was approaching.

Of course many if not all restaurants and other places had to sill close by 8 or 9PM meant they were/are still losing a lot of sales and mostly likely many of the small restaurant places get most of their sales in the evening.

If they have to close by 8/9PM and normally they stay open to 1/12 then they are losing 4/5 hours of sales because of the lockdown.

And the 60,00 yen that the government is providing might not be enough to cover 28 hours a week of lost sales.

Yes its important for the government to do what it thinks is needed but at the same time real businesses and real people are having challenges related to the lost business hours.

Have a nice day and be safe!