Japan 4th Quarter Growth:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210210/p2g/00m/0bu/117000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's economy in the October-December period likely grew an annualized real 7.97 percent from the previous quarter buoyed by a strong recovery of exports following a coronavirus pandemic-caused slump, market forecasts showed Wednesday.

The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2020 by economists at 36 private-sector think tanks corresponds to a 1.93 percent expansion on a seasonally-adjusted quarterly basis, growing for the second straight quarter, according to the Japan Center for Economic Research.

Ideas:

Most likely many economies around the world saw an increase as consumers felt more comfortable getting back to some kind of normal economic activities.

Exports most likely were of course driven by the global demand for Japanese cars. While in the spring and early summer of 2020 global consumers were not sure what was happening and were mostly likely to see what was going on

While the same time, domestic consumers were most likely tired of being inside and not going and an naturally began to spend more even if was just online shopping and buying.

Article:

The growth is largely due to exports of goods and services estimated to grow 9.06 percent, according to the average projection, as economic activities restarted gradually after the first coronavirus state of emergency in Japan was fully lifted in May.

The projection also showed that the country's gross domestic product in 2020 shrank a real 5.06 percent from 2019. It will be the fastest contraction since it fell 5.4 percent in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis.

For the current January-March term, the economy is forecast to shrink an annualized 5.47 percent, as the government declared its second state of emergency for Tokyo and some other areas last month, amid the third wave of virus infections. It was initially set to end last Sunday, but was extended by one month.

Ideas:

An economy doesn't get back to normality immediately so maybe it took until the Fall for most economic activities to see some kind of normalcy.

While a decrease of 5.06 is not good, Japan maybe was lucky that it wasn't worse.

But at the same time, Japan's economy maybe was more resilient than some other economies.

The reason being, Japan has had a somewhat stable economy compared to other economies in that while it no longer grows at +3 percent each quarter or even each year it remains in the 1+ percent range most of the time and or even just 0.5+. 

While not good, when you consider the amount of economic activity for the 3rd largest  economy a 0.5+ growth is still a lot of activity.

Even if the economy decreases 5.47 percent for the January-March term, we have to look at the big picture.

Yes there are some areas of the economy not doing very good but that doesn't mean all activity is shut down. There is still a lot of activity taking place even with a  -5.47 percent decrease.

And yes there are many businesses not doing too good but there also might be many businesses still surviving with business somewhat as usual.

Article:

The Cabinet Office is scheduled to release preliminary data on the latest quarterly and annual GDP figures on Monday.

Japan's economy contracted an unprecedented annualized 29.2 percent in the April to June period, after the first state of emergency was introduced in April last year and prompted people to refrain from nonessential outings and businesses to suspend operations.

With the economic restart, the world's third-largest economy showed a sharp rebound in the July-September quarter, growing an annualized 22.9 percent.

The economists forecast that GDP in the April-June period in 2021 will expand an annualized 5.76 percent.

The survey was conducted from Jan. 29 to Feb. 5.

Ideas:

And again while the economy is expected to grow 5.76 percent in the April to June period that doesn't mean all sectors and businesses will grow 5.76 percent. 

An economy is very complex and always in a state of movement. Sometimes sectors and businesses having good quarters and some sectors and businesses not so good quarters of growth.

And with the pandemic still around there still might be many businesses, especially the tourism and restaurant sectors not even getting close to 5.76. 

If they even reach 0.5 percent of economic growth they will most likely feel they have survived.

It most likely could take all of 2021 for the full economy to feel it has gotten back to some kind of "new normal" if even in 2021 for some again such as the tourism industry.

Have a nice day and be safe!