Article:
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's factory output likely slowed in February and retail sales dropped for a fifth straight month, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, as the coronavirus outbreak took an increasing toll on businesses and consumers.
Japan has recorded 2,113 cases of the virus and 57 deaths so far as the disease races across the world, prompting the Bank of Japan to expand stimulus while the government works to nail down a support package that sources say will total at least $137 billion.
While the stimulus likely won't prevent the world's third-largest economy from sliding into recession, analysts say it could keep businesses afloat until global demand begins to recover.
Comments and Ideas:
The factor output situation is always a major indicator. As the virus situation was increasing, factories were beginning to see the affects, as many of the factories might be suppliers and or suppliers to the factories are also feeling some of affect. Japan factories are not isolated, and the global economy, even in Japan, is very much inter-connected.
Retail decreases at first might have been related to the typhoons and the sales tax increase, but not the virus situation is beginning to have some affect, as consumers are maybe staying away from busy or packed super markets and large shopping areas.
The idea of not sliding into a recession is not so good an idea now. But if the Bank of Japan and the government can provide enough stimulus then it might be not quite as bad, if that is possible.
Article:
Industrial output is expected to have inched up 0.1% in February from the previous month, the poll of 15 analysts showed, after a revised 1.0% gain in January.
"Domestic production activities probably didn't go as planned due to supply chain disruptions triggered by the coronavirus outbreak," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
"We expect factory output will fall 5% in March from the previous month and 2.0% in April on worries that declines in global demand will last longer due to the virus impact."
Comments and Ideas:
I think it needs to be careful here. We sometimes get caught up in small percentages as we see above. Does a 0.1% increase really mean that much. Or a 0.1% decrease, does it really mean that much.? Statistics sometimes don't tell the real story.
Yes of course domestic production activities were most likely as the virus in Feb. and March began to disrupt the supply chains everywhere.
Most of the major indicators in Japan will probably see some decreases in March and April due to the virus situation. But the key is just how much of decrease will there be for April, as the situation maybe is not so good now.
Article:
Next week's data also include retail sales, which are expected to fall 1.2% fall in February from a year earlier, following a 0.4% slip in January.
"Retail sales for March will likely drop further not only in the service industry but also consumptions on other goods as the government called for people to refrain from going out to prevent the spread of the coronavirus," said Kenta Maruyama, economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting.
Comments and ideas:
Retail sales, most likely took a major decrease in March and most likely will be the same in April. No country can go on like this. Governments everywhere have got to find a solution for businesses and societies to get back to some kind of normal. Even if there is no true vaccine, societies have got to find a way to maybe exist with the possibility the virus might be here for a while.
Article:
The trade ministry will publish both factory output and retail sales at 8:50 a.m. Japan time on Tuesday, March 31 (2350 GMT Monday).
Analysts also expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 2.4% in February while the jobs-to-applicants ratio would dip to 1.47, slightly down from 1.49 in January.
The sharp slump in domestic and export demand has raised fears that the jobless rate could rise, analysts said.
The jobs figures will be announced at 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday.
Japan's economy shrank an annualised 7.1% in the fourth quarter and the spread of coronavirus raises fears for another contraction in the current quarter.
Japan's government offered its bleakest assessment on the economy in nearly seven years, saying conditions in March were "severe" as the coronavirus pandemic shut down factories and cooled consumption.
Comments and Ideas:
There is a lot of fear out there. But the fear of the unknown or the fear of what to do next might be the biggest fear. Eventually, maybe, someone is going to say enough, we have got to find a way to get this going again. We have got find some solutions instead of just isolation and no economic activity.
Have a nice day and be safe out there!
© 2020, Tom Metts, all rights reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.