Possible Japan Fiscal Spending:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/japans-abe-says-ready-top-
060131510.html

Article:

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Tuesday his government was ready to deploy further fiscal stimulus measures if needed to protect the country's already fragile economy from the negative effects of the coronavirus.

Abe, who has come under fire for his handling of the crisis, has pledged to focus over the next couple weeks on halting the spread of the virus in Japan, where the number of infections has almost reached 1,000. Twelve people have died.

Comments and Ideas:

The comments on this article are a little behind. A lot has happened since this article came out. As most would probably think, but most likely not agree with, protecting the Olympics was a priority at the time, even though everyone knew the virus situation was becoming a real challenge.

Article:

The outbreak comes at a critical time for Japan, raising the spectre of a potential second quarter of negative economic growth just as the country prepares to host the summer Olympic Games in July and August.

"We've already compiled a spending package to forestall various risks" funded by a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year ending in March and next fiscal year's budget, Abe told parliament on Tuesday.

"We'll scrutinise the impact of the coronavirus on the global and Japanese economies. If further steps are deemed necessary, we will take action without hesitation," he added.

Abe's remarks came a day after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda signalled the central bank's readiness to stabilise markets if necessary.

Comments and Ideas: 

A potential second quarter, meaning the first quarter in 2020, after the typhoons and tax hike challenges the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2019. Take away the virus situation and then what is left, beside the two variables above, what is left is the continued downward trend of global trade. 

And now add in the virus situation and the potential is even more real for less economic activity and less economic growth.

The idea that action is/was not taken soon enough can always be debated. Because economies are actions of companies which are actions of people and society, it never clear what or if any kind of action can help. Or more importantly when it can help. You can put a stimulus into action but you don't how long it will take to actually do what it was intended to do. 

Governments and central banks can only take "best guesses" as to how and when stimulus actions will actually work in an economy.

Article:

The government in December approved record budget spending for the coming fiscal year, part of which will be used to fund a $122 billion fiscal package to boost growth hit by the U.S.-China trade war and an Oct. 1 sales tax hike.

The budget needs parliament approval to take effect, and is still being deliberated in the upper house of the Diet.

Abe's administration has been reluctant to sign off on fresh spending before the budget formally passes parliament, for fear of drawing criticism that its existing spending plan was insufficient to prop up the economy.

So far, government steps to deal with the epidemic have all been funded by reserves it sets aside for emergency needs.

Japan's economy suffered a contraction in the December quarter and may shrink again in the current quarter due to the health crisis, which has disrupted supply chains and hit retailers reliant on inbound tourism, analysts say.

Comments and Ideas:

Any new budgets or any new spending plans are going to get a combination of positives and negatives, either too much or too little any any situation. Especially now, there might be more toward the idea of not enough. Budgets in normal times probably wouldn't be given a second thought. Basically pass it and move on the next agenda.

The idea of the Q1 being not so good, and now we can mostly like guess Q2 is headed in the same direction. But if Japan can maintain a sense of calm and maintain the social/physical distance strategy, and if the government can come up with even more and better spending strategies, Japan just might come out of this, with less than perfect but not catastrophic damage. Yes its not going to be good. But the government and the BOJ will need to find ways to help the economy and society ride this out. 

Business will need support. Families will need support. Small shops and businesses will need support.This is not the time to be a market hawk, meaning, just let the market fix itself. The risks are too high. But if the Japanese govt. and the BOJ can work together they can try to minimize the risks. 

A second, third, and fourth stimulus package might be needed over the next six months at a minimum.

Society and businesses need to get back to normal. Humans and businesses are not meant to hibernate and do nothing. Human nature requires movement and activity.

Have a nice day and be safe out there!

© 2020, Tom Metts, all rights reserved