Japan's Aug. Economic Review:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210826/p2g/00m/0bu/034000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The Japanese government on Thursday retained its view on the domestic economy in its monthly assessment for August, saying increased weakness has been seen in some sectors, while warning of downside risks from a recent resurgence of coronavirus infections.

The economy shows "further" weakness in some components and remains in a severe situation due to the pandemic, the Cabinet Office said, as the government's fourth state of emergency over the virus has been expanded to 13 out of Japan's 47 prefectures, with eight more to be added from Friday.

The measure only covered Tokyo and Okinawa a month ago.

Ideas:

No doubt the Japanese economy remains in a very fragile situation, with many sectors far from being at the pre-pandemic level.

Even though only 21 prefectures are in emergency situations doesn't mean the other prefectures are not experiencing not so good economic growth.

And yes, even prefectures are very much different in terms of economic growth like different sectors or industries don't all grow the same, and as such all prefectures in Japan have and will continue to have different levels of economic growth.

While some prefectures and areas have some growth some might not, some of it related to the pandemic some of it related to just normal market activity in an economy.

Article:

The wording was used for the fourth month in a row after a downward revision in May, when the previous virus emergency for Tokyo and some other areas was in effect.

Looking forward, the report said the economy is expected to continue picking up, but warned full attention should be given to a "further increase in downside risks" due to the spread of the virus.

"Given factors such as how fast virus cases increase since the beginning of this month along with expansions of the virus emergency, we thought we should change the description" for the economic outlook, a government official told reporters.

Ideas:

Government economic reports like many central bank reports or assessments sometimes are very cautious about what they might say, as the don't want to cause harm in the financial or the stock markets and even globally.

Yes the economy may well be picking up in some areas such as exports, manufacturing, or business investments, but there are still many areas of the economy that is not doing so good.

The pandemic situation will most likely continue to play heavily on many areas or sectors such at the tourism industry, the services industry including restaurants and hotels. And even some retail places still might not be doing so good as some consumers might still be concerned about going out too much.

Article:

The number of new daily COVID-19 cases nationwide has kept expanding since around late July, with the figure breaking the previous record of nearly 8,000 marked in early January and topping the 25,000 mark for the third straight day on Saturday amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant.

Under the state of emergency, restaurants and bars are asked not to serve alcohol and close by 8 p.m., while major commercial facilities such as department stores are requested to limit the number of customers allowed in at the same time.

The end date of the latest emergency is currently set on Sept. 12.

Ideas:

Even though more and more people are getting vaccinated in Japan it seems to cases keep rising which is not good for many parts of the Japanese economy.

Some reports have stated that up to 40 percent of restaurants and other places in the Tokyo entertainment areas are not following the suggestions of the government as they say they can't survive if they close as maybe most of their business is done in the evening's.

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction or there are always positives and negatives in many economic actions.

While the attempt to limit the number of customers into a department store at anyone time, most likely its not good for business for Japanese department stores. Or maybe there is no affect and possibly the total number of customers over a day, week or month might level out or be the same if customers are willing to wait to get into a department store.

Or quite possibly some might decide to buy online if the items they want or need are sold online.

But of course, in the case of supermarkets, quite possibly they might not have an online presence and or have for example delivery types services to customers close to the supermarket.

As of this writing, a bit delayed, the emergency measures have been extended to the end of October.

Article:

By component, the office retained its view that private consumption has shown "further" weakness, especially in services spending. In addition to the surging virus cases, the official said he believes heavy rain across the nation earlier in August also dampened consumer sentiment.

Upgrading the evaluation of corporate profits for the first time since February, the report said earnings are "picking up, although some weaknesses remain in nonmanufacturers" due to the impact of the virus. The July report had said they were "picking up as a whole."

Meanwhile, imports saw the first downgrading in 10 months, as the office said they are "pausing" in recovery recently, compared with the July report that said they showed "movements of picking up."

Ideas:

External factors such as the weather can also have an affect on consumer spending. But at the same time, quite possible during that time period of heavy rains, it would be interesting to see if online consumer spending increased as the rains might have caused some people to not go out.

While many manufactures are seeing growth some are won't in September because of the semi conductor chip shortage

While many businesses not related to the service industry most likely are seeing economic growth. But at the same time maybe many are not. 

An economy is very complex and a such there is always a lot of dynamics taking place at the same time.

Even before or without a pandemic in an market economy there area always positives and negatives meaning there are always businesses and sectors who are doing good and some businesses and sectors not doing so good.

The ideas of a "pausing" can mean many different things. For example sometimes energy, oil, and gas are major import items to or for the Japanese economy. As sometimes these energy commodities are fragile or are subject to global energy supplies and as such sometimes the energy prices are up and sometimes they are down, which can affect the value of the imports into Japan. 

So a pausing could mean oil prices were down and as such the value of imports was down too, but not necessarily the quantity of imports depending on what statistic or measurement is used.

Have a nice day and be safe!