Japan June Jobless Rate:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210730/p2g/00m/0bu/026000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.9 percent in June, reflecting a pickup in hiring at restaurants and retailers hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic as the state of emergency was lifted in some areas, government data showed Friday.

The seasonally adjusted jobless rate dropped from 3.0 percent for May, improving for the first time since March, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said.

The job availability ratio improved to 1.13 from 1.09 a month earlier, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said. The latest figure of 1.13 means that there were 113 openings for every 100 job seekers.

Ideas:

Most likely the Japanese unemployment rate is going to be very volatile for a while as the pandemic situation continues on.

Yes people will eventually be heading back to their favorite restaurants and stores but probably not in numbers seen before the pandemic.

So mostly likely the Japanese unemployment rate will remain higher that what it was before the pandemic.

Even now at 2.9 percent, it is still one of the lowest in the OECD. And the job availability rate is still very good compared to many countries.

Article:

Japan lifted its third state of emergency, which asks alcohol-serving establishments to suspend their operations, other eateries to close early and people to refrain from unnecessary outings, in nine prefectures including Tokyo in late June, and only the southern island prefecture of Okinawa remained under the measure.

But the capital was put under a state of emergency again in mid-July amid a resurgence of infections and four other prefectures are now expected to be added to the measure, clouding the outlook for the employment environment.

Looking at figures unadjusted for seasonal factors in the reporting month, the total number of unemployed people increased 110,000 from a year earlier to 2.06 million, but people in work also rose 220,000 to 66.92 million, the ministry said.

Ideas:

The pandemic appears to be going nowhere but up. As the new variants are causing problems in Japan and globally. 

As such the new emergency measures most likely will be kept or should be kept until the end of August.

Of course that is in the middle of the Obon season, the vacation season, and as such travel and domestic tourism most likely will be affected.

So how can both the number of unemployed and the number of employed both increase at the same time? Part of the reason is the number of people who report they are out of work and or seeking unemployment benefits.

If a person who is out of work and doesn't seek benefits or try to find work, in some countries they are not counted as unemployed, as they aren't in the system seeking work. Only when they seek unemployment benefits and show they are looking for work than they are considered unemployed.

So most likely there was some kind of combination of layoffs and or people applying for benefits and people actually gaining employment at the same time.

Take out the pandemic scenario, and this is normal economic activity as there are always going to be be being laid off, people seeking benefits and people being hired all at the same time.

Article:

By sector, accommodation and restaurant services, hit hard by the pandemic, logged the first year-on-year gain in the number of workers in 18 months, up 130,000 from the previous year to 3.82 million.

The wholesale and retail fields saw an increase of 490,000 from a year ago to 10.71 million, adding the largest number of jobs among others.

Among the jobless people, 770,000 people voluntarily left their jobs, up 50,000, while 530,000 were new job seekers, up 30,000.

Ideas:

Despite the number of gains in the numbers of workers, most likely the services sector has a long way to go before it reaches the pre-pandemic level. 

Especially any services sector jobs that might have been related to international tourism. Yes domestic tourism and economic activity is going to come back, maybe slowly of course, but not the million plus international tourists that were coming to Japan before the pandemic.

So any jobs that might have been related to international tourism just aren't going to come back anytime soon.

And as a example of the 770,000 workers who voluntarily left their jobs, how many of them went immediately and filed for unemployment benefits. If they didn't they might not be included in the number of unemployed. For example if 530,000 were part of the 770,000 that might mean 240,000 might not be considered in the unemployment numbers as now the 530,000 are because they are looking for work.

Article:

The number of people laid off declined 10,000 to 600,000, down for the first time in 17 months, which a ministry official said could be regarded as a "turning point in trends," along with the increase of employees at hotels and eateries.

Compared with a pre-pandemic figure, however, the official told reporters that the number of people on payrolls was still at a low level, saying that it was 550,000 lower than the 67.47 million in June 2019.

Ideas:

What is the exact difference between being laid off and voluntarily leaving their jobs? What if those who left their jobs voluntarily were given some kind of incentives to leave their jobs such as some kind of severance pay, some kind of bonus instead of just being laid off?

But still even 600,000 is a lot of layoffs and the pandemic is still causing major challenges for the Japanese economy.

It might be the lowest in 17 months but it still too high. There might be an increase in employees at hotels and eateries but most likely it is nowhere what it was before the pandemic.

The 550,000 to be fair and honest might be a little low, because most likely there are many who are not included in the unemployment numbers for whatever reason. A fair estimate might be double that amount.

For example just the numbers listed, 600,000 layoffs and only 550,000 lower doesn't exactly add up.

Article:

Takuya Hoshino, a senior economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, said the number of workers has been falling on a seasonally adjusted basis since the beginning of this year as the government repeatedly issued virus emergencies, but the downward trend is "coming to a halt."

Hoshino pointed out that more dining establishments are increasingly defying the government's requests amid repeated virus emergencies and that the increase in the number of people employed by hotels and eateries may be an indication of this.

"The situation over the spread of virus infections is getting worse for sure, and the employment environment in the accommodation and food service industries could worsen again," he said.

Ideas:

Most likely what is really happening is that now hotels and eateries are responding to the demand by customers and now they are beginning to return.

Consumers are in a period of pandemic fatigue and as such they want to be out and about and the pandemic has been going on for so long they have somewhat gotten used to it.

And of course as more and more Japanese citizens become vaccinated they feel more and more comfortable being out and about.

As such they are heading back to their favorite restaurants, hotels, or hotel buffets, their favorite stores and other places.

So hotel and other places are just responding now the increase in demand for the services they offer.

Unfortunately the virus situation at the same time has increased again.

And yes, it could change again because of the increase in virus cases.

Have a nice day and be safe!