Bank of Japan Estimates:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210705/p2g/00m/0bu/045000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The Bank of Japan on Monday downgraded its economic assessments of two of the country's nine regions -- Chugoku and Shikoku -- as the pace of recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is slowing.

In its quarterly Sakura report for July, the BOJ raised its outlooks for two regions while maintaining its assessments of the remaining five, underscoring the uneven nature of economic recovery.

The Japanese central bank said the economy remains in a "severe situation" due to the impact of the pandemic but many reported that the economy has "picked up as a trend" or "started to pick up."

Ideas:

No economy grows at a linear rate, or equally, and certainly different areas of an economy don't rate at the same rate. 

As an economy is very complex, with many different sectors and many different types of businesses, an economy never see the exact growth in all sectors, all  areas, or all business.

And now you add in the pandemic situation and it creates even more imbalances in the economy.

Some areas might be some economic growth and some might see decreasing economic growth.

Before the latest pandemic surge there might have been some areas that were beginning to pick up, but now that the pandemic as exploded again, its not going to be easy for any area to see significant economic growth.

Article:

The two regions that saw upgrades were Kinki, which includes the western prefecture of Osaka, and Hokuriku in central Japan. The Kanto-Koshinetsu region centering on Tokyo was among the five regions for which assessments were maintained.

"For the time being, economic activity is expected to stay at lower levels than before the coronavirus pandemic," Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told a videoconference of BOJ branch managers before the release of the report.

Japan is battling to rein in rising coronavirus cases in urban areas amid worries about a further spread of the Delta variant, less than three weeks before the opening of the Tokyo Olympics.

Ideas:

The new virus strains will keep economic growth down for the time being. Most likely real economic growth might not be seen until the 3rd or 4th quarter as it seems the current virus situation is now even worse than the original situation last spring.

The problem is that people either are complacent now, have been vaccinated, and or are have pandemic fatigue meaning they are tired of waiting and or tired of not being able to do what they did before the pandemic.

But as I check some YouTube videos related to the Tokyo entertainment areas, is seem like normal as many people are out and about and even some not wearing masks.

This writing is actually during the Olympics and the virus situation is even worse now.

Article:

Economists and BOJ policymakers expect further progress in vaccinations in Japan will lead to more economic activity, helping the services sector that has lagged behind manufacturers in the pace of recovery.

The BOJ report said downward pressure on consumption of services remained in areas under a COVID-19 quasi-state of emergency such as Kanto-Koshinetsu, Tokai and Kinki.

Manufacturers such as automakers have seen a recovery from the pandemic much sooner than service providers, buoyed by strong demand in the United States and China.

Ideas:

Yes, the progress in vaccines should be good for increased economic activity, as some consumers will feel more confident getting out and doing things.

And yes, it should help the services sector some, but it is going to take some time before the services sector fully recovers.

But again, as of this writing, which several weeks after the publication date of this post, the virus situation has re-emerged as a major problem, and again might be a major factors on the services sector.

Manufacturing has recovered much faster, but not the problem of course, as reported in many article is the global semiconductor chip shortage, which again has been reported that some manufacturing factories are reducing their operations because of the shortage.

Article:

Chugoku was the only region in which the pace of a pickup in production was slowing down.

"We have been adjusting production of auto parts as automakers have cut output amid the shortage of chips since May," a company in the auto sector in Chugoku was quoted as saying in the report. "The impact of the shortage will likely ease gradually from August so we plan to ramp up production to catch up from this fall."

The Sakura report, named after its cherry blossom-colored cover, will be among the materials used at the BOJ's policy-setting meeting next week.

Ideas:

The slowdown the manufacturing sector related to the chip shortage comes as the Obon season, the traditional summer vacation season, begins in Japan. So there might be some slowdowns and or delays as the summer vacation season also interacts with the chip shortage and or course the virus situation all at the same time.

The fall most likely will be time when production will be back to normal, as more companies maybe by then have solved or found ways to overcome the chip shortage, and as more people become vaccinated full operations mostly will be taking place.

But the virus situation has not slowed down but has gotten worse. But the manufacturing sector seems to be able to keep going despite the virus situation.

Have a nice day and be safe!