Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Japan Current Account Surplus:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210112/p2g/00m/0bu/047000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's current account surplus for November rose 29.0 percent from a year earlier, up for the third straight month, on a sharp decline in imports with continued falls in energy resource prices, government data showed Tuesday.

    The current account balance, one of the widest gauges of international trade, registered a surplus of 1.88 trillion yen ($18 billion), staying in the black for the 77th consecutive month, the Finance Ministry said in a preliminary report.

    In the reporting month, the country's goods trade balance came to a surplus of 616.1 billion yen, up from a 20.0 billion yen deficit in the previous year, logging black ink for the fifth consecutive month.

    Ideas:

    An account surplus is when exports are greater than imports. Another way to say it is trade surplus.

    When a country has a trade surplus it means more money is coming into the country that is going out of the country, as for imports, whomever, has to pay for products coming into the country and for those products going out of the country, someone somewhere has to pay to Japanese companies for those products.

    The US for example is not a trade surplus economy because the size of the economy, as many foreign and international companies want to sell their products in the US market. 

    As such the US never has a trade surplus but always a trade deficit.

    Japan, like any country, especially those heavily involved in international trade and exporting always want to see a trade surplus. 

    The fact that Japan has had a trade surplus for 77 months is a good for the Japanese economy and Japanese exporters.

    Article:

    Imports decreased 13.6 percent to 5.42 trillion yen due to falling prices of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, while exports slid 3.4 percent to 6.04 trillion yen as demand for mineral fuels and steel was dampened.

    November saw a bigger growth of the current account surplus than the 15.7 percent increase in October and 3.6 percent climb in September, as economic activity resumed after the government in late May completely lifted its first state of emergency over the virus, declared in early April.

    The figure had posted year-on-year decreases for six months in a row until August, including an 89.6 percent plunge in June.

    Ideas:

    Oil prices contributed to the fall in imports as prices play a role in trade. But maybe the idea of volume should also be considered, which I'm sure it is in another government measurement.

    While prices might have limited one measurement it would be interesting if there was a fall into the total volume of imports, or the actual total volume of imports, or even exports and decreased but what was the actual volume.

    The fact that there were six months of decreases it apparently wasn't enough to stop the 77 month streak of trade surpluses, indicating that Japan is an export focused country, despite having a large domestic market too.

    Article:

    Among other key components, the services trade balance in November marked a deficit of 181.6 billion yen compared with a surplus of 176.9 billion yen a year before, largely affected by the continued drop in the travel balance surplus as strict travel restrictions to curb the virus spread remained across the world.

    The travel balance reflects the amount of money foreign visitors spend in Japan versus Japanese spending abroad. It saw a 27.6 billion yen surplus in November, down 87.9 percent from 228.0 billion yen a year earlier.

    Ideas:

    No the travel restrictions have reduced foreign travel into Japan, an as such money flowing into Japan. 

    Its unimaginable just how much has been lost due to the fact that 1 million Chinese travelers were unable to go to Japan and spend all the money they spend in Tokyo and other places.

    And all the businesses that were created just to cater to all the Chinese tourists and now, even if they survive. how long before the tourism industry gets back to normal in Japan.

    Not including all of big departments stores, duty free stores and shops in the Ginza area of Tokyo that, came to depend on the Chinese tourists.

    It only logical, with that much money flowing through Tokyo, that department stores and other businesses came to depend heavily on the tourism business from China.

    And there no way, while still the third largest economy in the world and with a large domestic economy, that domestic spending can ever overcome the loss in the amount of spending by Chinese tourists in Tokyo and other areas.

    Article:

    Primary income, reflecting the net flow of profits, interest and dividends from investments in other countries, marked a surplus of 1.72 trillion yen, up 17.8 percent, helped by an increase in bond interest received by investors in Japan.

    In November, Japan saw the start of a third wave of virus infections with daily numbers of cases continuing to rewrite record levels.

    Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga on Thursday declared another state of emergency in the Tokyo metropolitan area effective from the following day to Feb. 7, raising uncertainty over the economic outlook.

    Ideas:

    There is no way any country can make up for the losses due to the pandemic. The best that can happen is that domestic spending an such, might pick up some, but it will never be enough to offset what has been lost.

    The global economy has become too integrated, but the losses globally from the pandemic, most likely can't be made up.

    Article:

    The declaration requests residents to stay home and service providers such as restaurants, department stores and entertainment facilities to shorten their operating hours.

    Japan is set to expand the declaration later this week to Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo prefectures in the western part of the country, according to government and ruling party sources.

    Ideas:

    While its important to focus on safety there should be a balance somehow somewhere, where businesses are able to operate as naturally as possible.

    One way of course, and its happening is for restaurants to move into more takeout and delivery services to offset the losses from the early closing times.

    Perhaps, for example. after 9PM restaurants remain open but just for takeout and delivery services only. That way they might be able to not lose so much from the loss of customers eating in their restaurants.

    Perhaps stay open to 12 midnight with takeout and delivery services.

    And the same for smaller shops and stores, instead of having to close early, have a mandatory rule, where customers are required to wear masks, and if not they are not allowed into the stores.

    Even supermarkets can use that rule later at night and even offer delivery services to say midnight for late night shoppers.

    And of course use apps and e-commerce as much as possible to keep their businesses going.

    Have a nice day and be safe!

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