Japan Consumer Confidence:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210106/p2g/00m/0bu/105000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's consumer confidence in December saw the first decline in four months, dented by the resurgence of novel coronavirus infections across the country, government data showed Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted index of sentiment among households made up of two or more people fell to 31.8 from 33.7 in November, according to the Cabinet Office.

The index gives an indication of consumers' economic expectations for the coming six months, with a reading below 50 suggesting pessimists outnumber optimists.

Ideas:

While the index is a good indicator of consumer confidence, it is never 100% perfect in predicting what consumers might do.

The reason is because consumes are people, and sometime consumers/people are not 100% predictable what they might do.

One week they might not want to spend and the next week they completely change their mind on what they want to do.

Yes the Index maybe is the best predictor but its still about human behavior which can always change.

But with that said, a reading of 31.7 is not exactly positive in that more consumers feel not so positive about the next six months

Article:

The result of the survey, conducted between Dec. 8 and 21, came as Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is considering declaring another state of emergency on Thursday, as the country has faced a third wave of virus infections with record daily numbers of cases.

The first state of emergency was declared in April last year, which hit the world's third-largest economy hard.

The virus resurgence, which has become obvious since November, also forced Suga to suspend the government-subsidized "Go To Travel" domestic tourism promotion campaign nationwide since the year-end holidays.

Ideas:

Its important to understand just how much businesses, society, consumers etc. are affected by the media and such related to positive news and or negative news.

If the media is always talking about negative things, then naturally society and such is going to most likely feel negative about what is happening

But the opposite can be true too. If the media is providing some kind positive news or positive outlooks about the future then society might have a different point of view and maybe more positive outlook which could contribute to a more positive consumer confidence index.

That doesn't mean the media should not report the negative or the the government should not explain what is going on, but it just shows how much influence on society positive and negative news or information has.

Article:

"We believe that the recent spread of virus infections and events like suspension of the 'Go To' campaign have increased uncertainty over the outlook," a government official told reporters.

The official said that the expected emergency declaration could be a "negative contributor" to the sentiment. "On the other hand, if the number of new cases decreases through measures under the emergency, it would bring (sentiment) back on the recovery track," he added.

The office downgraded its basic assessment on consumer sentiment for the first time in four months as well, saying that consumer sentiment was "stalling." It said in the previous month that sentiment had "remained in a severe situation, but shown signs of recovery recently."

Ideas:

Exactly, negative information more than likely might influence the consumer confidence index while the reduction in virus cases in the news might influence the consumer confidence index i a positive way.

But its very important that the information is correct and factual and not fake or made up, either way, to unduly influence society.

So, in periods of not so good information or news, what can the government do try and minimize the negative aspects of the consumer confidence index? Obviously the government needs to truthful with what is going on but at the same time, find ways to boost confidence the best it and or at least keep consumer confidence from getting worse.

That might be the most logical solution. Don't try to completely boost confidence when there is not so good news everyday but find ways to help society and consumers in general to see "light at the end of the tunnel" so to speak.

Of course the best way is to provide more subsidies for families and workers, or even monthly subsidies as a way to keep society feeling like they are going "survive" the pandemic.

Article:

The index had improved from a record-low 21.6 logged in April, in the wake of the government's first state of emergency declaration over the virus in Tokyo and six other prefectures early in the month, which was expanded to other parts of Japan later in the month. Nonbinding requests for people to stay at home hit personal spending until they were completely lifted in late May.

All of the survey's four components worsened in the reporting month, with consumers' assessment of employment conditions showing the largest drop among them, falling 2.9 points to 23.6.

Willingness to buy durable goods dropped 1.9 points to 33.8 and the assessment of livelihoods was down 1.8 points to 34.9. That of income growth dipped 0.7 point to 35.0.

The survey covered 8,400 households, including 2,688 single-member households, with valid responses received from 7,415, or 88.3 percent.

Ideas:

The record low of 21.6 of course was maybe because the virus situation was a major shock to Japan and of course the world and everyone was trying to figure out what is going on.

To all of a sudden have your life, work life, income, etc. affected was a major shock to many people.

And as such consumers/people decided to cut back on spending as they were not sure of what was happening and not sure of their work future.

From the beginning I felt the way the Japanese government handled the virus situation back in April was the best choice as a way to balance reducing the virus situation and also protecting the economy, businesses, and jobs at the same time.

There might not have been a best practice way to do what was needed to be done at the time as even in the EU, where there were complete lockdowns, that didn't work perfectly either.

So maybe there was no perfect way to handle the situation.

Have a nice day and be safe!