Japan Consumer Confidence:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201202/p2g/00m/0bu/117000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's consumer confidence in November continued to improve but at a slower pace as a resurgence of novel coronavirus infections weighed on consumer sentiment, government data showed Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted index of sentiment among households made up of two or more people edged up to 33.7 from 33.6 last month, for the third consecutive month of increase, according to the Cabinet Office. The figure was up 3.4 points in September, and 0.9 point in October.

Ideas and Commentary:

If you were too watch on YouTube the Tokyo Shibuya crossing area, someone might think with all of the people there that the virus situation is, well, not there as before.

I remember seeing the crossing in the spring and there were many days of very few people out and about. But now its the complete opposite. But it would be a mistake to think all is normal in Tokyo and in Japan.

Economic activity might be improving somewhat and one would excused to think with so many people/consumers moving about here or there that the Japanese economy is somewhat back to normal.

But just because for example, if I were to go to the Yokohama eki and walk around there I might see a lot of people/consumers moving around but how many of them are actually buying things?

Or if I were to go to Landmark Tower in Yokohama and walked through there on a busy Saturday or Sunday, as some friends have done you might think things are back to normal. 

But again we have to be careful. Consumer sentiment or feeling is a difficult measurement as it really hard to really know what is going on with consumers sometimes.

They might be out and about but are they really shopping or just shopping for the basic needs and or are they shopping for extra items and not too worried about the future etc.?

Article:

Amid what some medical experts call the third wave of infections, Japan has been seeing an increase in the number of new virus cases since early November, logging record daily figures of over 2,500 late that month. The consumer confidence survey was conducted between Nov. 7 and 20.

"Although the index kept rising, the pace slowed, and it's natural for us to believe that (the virus resurgence) made an impact," a government official told reporters.

The index gives an indication of consumers' economic expectations for the coming six months, with a reading below 50 suggesting pessimists outnumber optimists.

The Cabinet Office maintained its basic assessment for the second straight month, saying consumer sentiment has "remained in a severe situation, but shown signs of recovery recently."

The survey covered 8,400 households, including 1,991 single-member households, with valid responses received from 7,402, or 88.1 percent.

Ideas and Commentary:

Its only natural that consumer sentiment is below 50 in the index as the virus situation seems to be at or near a third wave, and not to be forgotten the number of people out of a job and or just barely hanging on or their companies barely hanging on.

But at the same time, the Japanese economy is the third largest economy in the world, and as such, as any economy, there are many parts many industries, so there is always going to be some positives and negatives and even in the virus not everyone is going to feel as hard hit as others.

But back to the idea of consumer sentiment. Consumers/families most likely, even though they are out and about everywhere are probably not spending at their full potential like before the pandemic situation.

There are many different consumer groups in an economy. All different income categories and as such different levels of spending. 

It would be a mistake to think that all groups are spending equally, if ever,or that all groups have the same feelings about the economy.

But of course it can be rightly thought that the majority of those on the low and middle groups are feeling the affects of the virus situation, even though they are out and about, and again are spending at their pre-pandemic level.

How long will it take after the virus vaccines come into affect and those who have lost their jobs to get back to feeling good remains to be seen.