Japan 2021 Estimate:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201218/p2g/00m/0bu/055000c

Ideas:

Governments can only make estimates and no one really knows exactly what is going to happen the future, especially with the virus situation.

Of course they know and they know they just need to be close to what might happen and not try to give an exact estimate of future economic growth.

And as is shown with the OECD and the IMF sometime different economic organizations will have different estimates from the government estimate, as they might be looking at different economic data and or have different perspectives on economic growth.

Of course the largest possible economic expansion since 1995 and 2020 was not so good because of the virus situation.

With the virus situation, government, public spending, is needed now more than ever, to help sustain and stimulate economic growth. 

But most likely because of the severity of the situation even more needs do be done.

A one time check to families or even small businesses is not going to be enough. Small businesses, until the end of the virus situation, or even a few months beyond that, need to have weekly and or monthly sustainable funds to keep them in business.

This is not the time to worry about government debt and or to say "let the market" decide the future or the economy.

The future of the economy is small business, families, and individuals either having enough to live on  or businesses continuing to stay in business and or closing and or families starving and not having enough money during the pandemic

And yes Japan's GPD most likely will shrink 5.2 percent which just shows the need for the government and the Bank of Japan do to has much as the can to help businesses and families survive.

Of course back in April 2020 no one new really what was happening or how to deal with the situation. And the "larger than expected" GDP drop, at the same time, should have been somewhat expected. 

When you shut down a size-able part of the economy what does anyone think is going to happen. Again not to blame anyone, as everyone was trying figure out what is going on and how can we best stop or at least minimize the situation.

Future projections are nice are good, but even those who makes projections or estimates understand they don't really know what is going to happen in the future. They can only hope  that what they predict is somewhat close to what might happen.

But if it does happen that consumer spending in 2021 is 3.9 percent is excellent. But again we have to think is it a year to year projection, meaning comparing 2020 and 2021?

Hopefully as consumer being to feel better about future of their jobs and income then spending might increase. And or the just get tired of waiting for things to change in the economy overall they just go back to some kind "new normal" spending.

Capital expenditures is another situation. Companies sometimes wait for better economic conditions to invest/spend and or they invest/spend when they need to equipment, buildings, factors etc. So sometimes is not easy to see why or why they don't invest/spend.

Every economic organization seems to have a different estimate for economic growth, as maybe they are looking at different data and or how what criteria they use for the estimates.

All a government can do is try to guess what might happen in the future. And that is even more apparent now. No one knows exactly what will happen in 2021. 

Because the virus situation will continue into 2021 and most likely into the summer, and the the vaccinations happening at slow pace, economic growth really is just an estimate or guess.

An economy does not grow evenly or does not recover evenly.

Lets take the most extreme area: how long is it going to take for the Japanese tourism industry to fully recover or even to have a modest recovery?

There are thousands upon thousands of business involved in the Japanese tourism industry. 

How many have already gone out of business and how many will be left when the virus situation is completely under control?

And how long before Japan begins to allow foreign tourists back into Japan?

These are some questions that I'm sure the Japanese government is fully aware of.

Of course even now what about the Tokyo Olympics?

Have a nice day and be safe!