Japan Economy Recovering: Updated Dec. 2, 2025.

Japan says economy recovering moderately, warns of US tariff impact

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251126/p2g/00m/0bu/031000c

Ideas

No offense, but most governments use the phrase "recovering moderately," as a way to not upset the financial markets which can easily be swayed in both directions.

And yes, at the same time the US tariff situation might be weighing heavily on the Japanese car sector which might see the profit margins reduced significantly.

Private consumption or consumer spending might be picking up some but to be fair Japan has never been a major consumer spending economy like the US as the Japanese have been more savers than spenders, which while a positive can also be a negative if the Japanese households don't spend enough to support the economy.

At the same time, capital investments are very important for the Japanese economy as most likely the capital investments are coming from Japanese manufacturing companies which might still be considered as economic drivers for the Japanese economy.

Exports might be considered flat but that doesn't mean that they are in negative territory,  although it might be decreasing from a positive zone to a slow growth zone but still stable.

The US governments current trade policy might be affecting many countries and might be affecting it allies even more as its a very conflicting situation at this time.

The Japanese economy never seems to grow that much as its a very mature economy now, which means mature economies either need a lot of resources to grow, significant innovation, or improved productivity within its economy.

Exports have been a positive for the Japanese economy for the past 50 years and might be considered its sole economic driver outside of manufacturing. 

Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be any other sectors that can significantly help the economy grow other than exports and again maybe manufacturing in Japan.

There is the possibility of foreign tourists and the record numbers entering Japan and spending a significant amount as the weak Japanese yen gives foreign tourists more purchasing power, but at this time its good but still not enough to help  GDP growth that much, but it is improving.

Japanese companies, more than US companies, at least before the pandemic always absorbed their costs as a way to keep as many customers happy as they can and to show good will to their customer base.

But that might be changing in the future as Japanese automakers have significant shareholders who might be more demanding and want to see a significant profit, and if the Japanese car companies keep reducing prices and or keep covering the tariff costs the profit margins of the car companies are going to be reduced significantly.

At the same time, Japanese companies in the US and maybe globally have always considered market share more important than long-term profitability, but again, that might be changing soon as shareholders want to see more profit than market share from their companies.

Its possible that most of the eight Japanese car companies have significant reserves which they can use to help them over-come the tariff situation. And its quite possible as the tariff rate was reduced to 15 percent that might be enough to help most Japanese car companies remain profitable and be able to meet their shareholder expectations during then next quarter.

But the one Japanese car company that might still struggle unfortunately is Nissan which seems to be in the middle of a restructuring period and they might not see a profit over the next year or two.

Yes, again, private consumption or consumer spending might be picking up but its never going to be as robust as US consumers spending is. For example consumer spending in the US is maybe 60 or 70 percent of the US GDP, while in Japan its around 50 percent which might not be enough to help with significant GDP growth which is what the Japanese economy needs at this time.

Business investment, again, might be related to Japanese manufacturing as manufacturing in Japan is still a major sector a major industry, while in other advanced economies the services sector and the technology sector have transformed most economies but in Japan manufacturing is still has a significant presence in the economy.

Imports being downgraded to "almost flat" might mean demand for products from other Asian countries such as China and South Korea might lagging now as maybe for example the smartphones coming out of China, which might have been popular at one time, are not so popular now and the Samsung smartphones coming out of South Korea too might be losing their luster in the highly competitive Japanese domestic market.

There is also the complicated political situation between China and Japan now which might he affecting demand for Chinese products in Japan as maybe Japanese consumers might be less interested in Chinese products at this time, in China many Chinese consumers too might be less interested in Japanese product now.

Producer prices are often increasing but in the past, at least before the pandemic, producers tried to absorb their costs as a way to maintain their customer base. But those days seem a long time ago as now producers are passing-on their costs to the next in the supply chain, and maybe even the final retail customers as their profits margins continue get thinner and thinner as raw material costs continue to increase.

Japanese rice is a different story as the summer of 2024 so-called shortage has kept rice prices at all time high with many super markets continuing to have frequent shortage of rice in Japan.

Rice is a major food staple of the Japanese households and it's strange that the powers-to-be allowed rice prices to become a major challenge for households, restaurants, and supermarkets in Japan.

Have a nice day!