Japan Food Price Increases: Updated Dec 13, 2025.

Number of food, beverage items seeing price hikes in 2025 in Japan to exceed 20,000

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251128/p2g/00m/0bu/042000c

Ideas

For many years Japanese companies were reluctant to increase prices or pass-on their costs the next in the supply chain including the final retail customer, but as profit margins have become thinner companies now have no choice but the pass-on their costs.

Japanese companies actually felt they had a deep relationship with many of their customers and the companies didn't want to upset the special customer/company relationship but those days might be long gone.

Inflation in Japan has been continued challenge for not only Japanese households but Japanese companies too, and with the weak Japanese yen, Japan has to import much of what its needs which means the weak yen increase prices even more.

The post pandemic years of 2002 and 2023, well not that far out of the pandemic as Japan was still in relative lockdown at the time, inflation was a major challenge then as it is now in Japan, as Japanese household's disposable income is less and less each year due to inflation which means they have less money to spend in the Japanese economy.

Some might say why doesn't the Japanese do something to reduce or curb the price increases. And the answer is government really can't do much as the burden falls on businesses to lower prices based on supply and Japan.

Government can and do sometimes put price control on food or products which as the main food staples such milk, bread, eggs, some meat, and you would think rice in Japan too.

But price controls while they might help households in the short-run are actually a potential distortion to a market economy as they can do more harm than good.

And then there is the idea of subsidies which are often used in Japan related to high gas prices and or energy prices but eventually someone has to pay for the subsidies, and usually it might be the wholesaler or the import company.

The food price increases might not be that noticeable for a segment of the Japanese population but for the lower-income groups including the fixed income groups the price increases might be very noticeable to the point they start to look for substitutes for the regular food products they might want to need to buy.

And at the same time as these lower-income groups and fixed income groups look for food substitutes they might begin to buy food that is not as healthy for them.

Lets hope for the good of Japanese households that the increase in food prices in Japan will subside but it might not happen as it seems inflation just keeps rolling along with no end in sight for Japan.

Food prices are the result of supply and demand, for the most part, but in Japan food prices might be more related to the weak Japanese yen as as the yen is weak it causes import prices to be even higher.

Japan is a resource poor country and has to import much of what it needs which means it's very vulnerable to global prices increases which Japan has no control over.

And then there is the possibility of the supposed logistics system with maybe too many wholesalers which can drive up the cost of food products and every time a product moves from one wholesaler to another they add more the price of the product so that when it gets to the final retail customer the price as increasing significantly.

Have a nice day!

Japan Oct. Jobless Rate: Updated Dec. 12, 2025.

Japan's October jobless rate unchanged from September at 2.6%

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251128/p2g/00m/0bu/018000c

Ideas

Among advanced economies Japan usually has one of the lowest unemployment rates, but as suggested the number of jobless people is increasing which is kind of surprising as Japan has a supposed labor shortage and you would think there would be enough jobs for everyone.

And yes, as inflation continues in Japan women, especially married women with families need to work to help pay the bills as these days a one-income household doesn't go very far.

Back in the day, women in Japan used to quit their jobs when they got married as its seemed to be standard norm, but these days, as the economy is getting worse or not much better more women might be entering the workforce or continuing to work after they get married.

But as the same time the rate of those getting married might be much less than before as women want to have their own careers in Japan and don't want to be burdened down with marriage or even raising a family.

Not in the workforce used to mean not working, just going to university or something like that. But these days, as more young people are disillusioned some decide to drop out of society which might place a burden on families and parents. 

But as there is a supposed labor shortage and wages have been increasing, at least for the last two years, it might be enough to change the minds of those who didn't want to work but now suddenly feel the need to start working.

The number of people with jobs increased by 0.2 percent which is really not that much of an increase with jobs individuals increased to 2.2 percent was/is a important indicator as it might represent those who quit their previous jobs and are looks for a new job and they feel confident they can find an new job as again there is a supposed labor shortage in Japan.

While a increase of 460,000 how involuntarily left their jobs might be related to the AI situation but then again it might be something different such as the slow Japanese economy might be forcing companies to lay-off workers.

But then again, an increase of 500,00 seeking jobs again might be related to those who just left their jobs or those who voluntarily quite their jobs thinking it will be easy to get a new job soon.

And yes, as more self-checkout systems are being implemented in some businesses to lower cost and the increase in the minimum wage might mean less jobs are available now than before but a decrease of 0.02 percent is not really a change that can be considered important just yet.

So there are 1.18 jobs or 118 jobs available for every 100 applicant is still a very good number which means there are still a lot of jobs in Japan but the question should be what kind of jobs are really available as are they good full-time jobs with good benefits or are contract jobs or part-time jobs with little to no benefits.

Its quite possible, despite the idea of their being a labor shortage in Japan, the inflation situation with increased costs for most if not all companies is forcing companies to either lay-off workers and or reduce the hours or workers which might mean less new job offers from many companies in Japan.

With regard to the education sector its not really sure just what that is, as it is public school employees, private school employees, college and university employees, private tutoring academies as there is significant industry in after school private tutoring academies in Japan.

An increase in the minimum wage always helps those who work part-time and or work in the service industry which usually pay only the minimum wage or maybe a little more if that.

But its not good for some companies and especially service companies that are are already operating with thin profit margins and an increase in the minimum wage might force to them to reduce the hours of the workers they have and or reduce hiring of new workers.

This is at happened as is happening in South Korea now as the the government has been attempting to increase the minimum wage each each year for the past five years.

More and more companies are maybe considering self-check out kiosks, the use of AI to reduce costs if they can to get around the minimum wage situation or the overall increase in wages in Japan.

Have a nice day!

Japan Oct. Industrial Output: Updated Nov. 29, 2025.

Japan Oct. industrial output rises 1.4% on month, driven up by autos

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251128/p2g/00m/0bu/016000c

Ideas

Japan is still a significant production focused economy and of course its an economy that exports a lot to other countries like China and the US.

The production and exporting of cars are both economic drivers which means they significantly generate economic growth in Japan.

The problem or challenge seems to be that there are almost no other economic drivers that can significantly improve economic growth for the Japanese economy.

Industrial production seems to be one of the only real economic drivers for the Japanese economy these days. While technology and services are the largest part of the economy industrial production is still a significant part of the economy.

The phrase" fluctuates indecisively" seems to be used a lot when describing economic activity in Japan, as the economy does really fluctuate and never seems to  grow consistently that much as it is often up and then down and then up and then down.

An index score of 104.6 is not bad and actually very good but of course as with any economy as large as Japan's is there are some sectors that might be up and some sectors that might be down as an in any economy all sectors are never all up or down at the same time.

An index score is just an accumulation of all stats or an accumulation of all the important stats for any economic activity to give a better picture of what might be happening.

Its hard to determine exactly why some sectors might be increasing and some might be decreasing as there could be many variable involved into what is really happening with that sector.

For example just to say its related to increases or decrease in demand might not be enough as there could be supply issues, production equipment issues, and of course these days the US tariff situation could be affected the electronic parts and devices sector some.

Manufacturing is never a linear upward projection sector as there are always starts and stops in the manufacturing sectors as again, there are demand issues, supply issues, equipment issues, and even labor issues these days as Japan is supposedly experiencing a labor shortage which could be affecting the smaller manufacturing companies that can't afford to pay the wages that some workers needs or want.

Again, the Japanese economy is still heavily focused on manufacturing and industrial shipment to other countries is still a major focus for the economy. An index score of 101.9 is still very good as it shows that part of the economy is still very productive.

The inventory index can be both a positive and negative depending on what is really happening but a score of 100.5 is still good.

However, if inventories increase too much it might be an indication that companies might have over-estimated the demand for their products and if inventories are down, it might be companies didn't estimate demand correctly as they can't keep up with the demand for their products.

Have a nice day!

Japan Economy Recovering: Updated Dec. 2, 2025.

Japan says economy recovering moderately, warns of US tariff impact

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251126/p2g/00m/0bu/031000c

Ideas

No offense, but most governments use the phrase "recovering moderately," as a way to not upset the financial markets which can easily be swayed in both directions.

And yes, at the same time the US tariff situation might be weighing heavily on the Japanese car sector which might see the profit margins reduced significantly.

Private consumption or consumer spending might be picking up some but to be fair Japan has never been a major consumer spending economy like the US as the Japanese have been more savers than spenders, which while a positive can also be a negative if the Japanese households don't spend enough to support the economy.

At the same time, capital investments are very important for the Japanese economy as most likely the capital investments are coming from Japanese manufacturing companies which might still be considered as economic drivers for the Japanese economy.

Exports might be considered flat but that doesn't mean that they are in negative territory,  although it might be decreasing from a positive zone to a slow growth zone but still stable.

The US governments current trade policy might be affecting many countries and might be affecting it allies even more as its a very conflicting situation at this time.

The Japanese economy never seems to grow that much as its a very mature economy now, which means mature economies either need a lot of resources to grow, significant innovation, or improved productivity within its economy.

Exports have been a positive for the Japanese economy for the past 50 years and might be considered its sole economic driver outside of manufacturing. 

Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be any other sectors that can significantly help the economy grow other than exports and again maybe manufacturing in Japan.

There is the possibility of foreign tourists and the record numbers entering Japan and spending a significant amount as the weak Japanese yen gives foreign tourists more purchasing power, but at this time its good but still not enough to help  GDP growth that much, but it is improving.

Japanese companies, more than US companies, at least before the pandemic always absorbed their costs as a way to keep as many customers happy as they can and to show good will to their customer base.

But that might be changing in the future as Japanese automakers have significant shareholders who might be more demanding and want to see a significant profit, and if the Japanese car companies keep reducing prices and or keep covering the tariff costs the profit margins of the car companies are going to be reduced significantly.

At the same time, Japanese companies in the US and maybe globally have always considered market share more important than long-term profitability, but again, that might be changing soon as shareholders want to see more profit than market share from their companies.

Its possible that most of the eight Japanese car companies have significant reserves which they can use to help them over-come the tariff situation. And its quite possible as the tariff rate was reduced to 15 percent that might be enough to help most Japanese car companies remain profitable and be able to meet their shareholder expectations during then next quarter.

But the one Japanese car company that might still struggle unfortunately is Nissan which seems to be in the middle of a restructuring period and they might not see a profit over the next year or two.

Yes, again, private consumption or consumer spending might be picking up but its never going to be as robust as US consumers spending is. For example consumer spending in the US is maybe 60 or 70 percent of the US GDP, while in Japan its around 50 percent which might not be enough to help with significant GDP growth which is what the Japanese economy needs at this time.

Business investment, again, might be related to Japanese manufacturing as manufacturing in Japan is still a major sector a major industry, while in other advanced economies the services sector and the technology sector have transformed most economies but in Japan manufacturing is still has a significant presence in the economy.

Imports being downgraded to "almost flat" might mean demand for products from other Asian countries such as China and South Korea might lagging now as maybe for example the smartphones coming out of China, which might have been popular at one time, are not so popular now and the Samsung smartphones coming out of South Korea too might be losing their luster in the highly competitive Japanese domestic market.

There is also the complicated political situation between China and Japan now which might he affecting demand for Chinese products in Japan as maybe Japanese consumers might be less interested in Chinese products at this time, in China many Chinese consumers too might be less interested in Japanese product now.

Producer prices are often increasing but in the past, at least before the pandemic, producers tried to absorb their costs as a way to maintain their customer base. But those days seem a long time ago as now producers are passing-on their costs to the next in the supply chain, and maybe even the final retail customers as their profits margins continue get thinner and thinner as raw material costs continue to increase.

Japanese rice is a different story as the summer of 2024 so-called shortage has kept rice prices at all time high with many super markets continuing to have frequent shortage of rice in Japan.

Rice is a major food staple of the Japanese households and it's strange that the powers-to-be allowed rice prices to become a major challenge for households, restaurants, and supermarkets in Japan.

Have a nice day!

Japan Govt. Economic Stimulus Package: Updated Nov. 24, 2025.

Japan gov't to OK 21 tril. yen economic package under fiscal dove Takaichi

Article source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251121/p2g/00m/0na/023000c

Ideas

There is always this debate about how much a government should get involved in an economy as there those who think the government should not get involved and those who think a government's role is to help the economy if needed.

In the case of Japan, the Japanese government has been trying for years, if not decades, to get the economy moving in the right direction including fiscal spending and subsidies to combat inflation to no avail.

There is no guarantee that the new fiscal economic package is going to do anything to help the economy as previous Prime Ministers have done the same thing with almost no success.

Of course the Japanese government has to show that its trying to help society and fiscal spending makes good political sense if not economic sense too.

If fiscal spending was all that was needed to improve the economy and reduce inflation or at least relieve the stress of Japanese citizens then all of the past spending would have done the job, but even through there have been sincere efforts to improve the economy and even reduce inflation nothing seems to be working.

Next to China, Japan is one of the largest exporters to the US and most likely is going to see significant effects from the US tariff situation in the future if it hasn't yet.

Exporting has been the main economic driver of the Japanese economy ever since the end of the second world war. While exports have been good for Japan, it seems that Japan has very few other options besides exports to grow and improve its economy.

While Japan might still be the fourth-largest economy, it domestic economy seems to be stagnant and really growing much and or there seems to be few economic drivers to move the domestic economy forward.

Short-term inflation relief measures might be like just putting a band aid of an injury and hoping it will solve the problem. It might give some temporary relief but its not going to solve the inflation situation much.

But to be fair, inflation is very hard to solve as its still a major problem in the US and other places too globally.

Shipbuilding in Japan used to be a major industry until China and South Korea started building ships and then Japan lost a lot of market share. Its going take some significant investment to gain any kind of market share as again China and South Korea, at the moment, have most of the market share in shipbuilding.

There seems to a global race now related to AI or artificial intelligence and hopefully Japan has not entered the AI realm too late to gain any kind of traction to make a significant contribution.

It seems  Japan is always funding a new economic package for something related to inflation or to improve the economic, which to be fair, hasn't been too successful lately, even though there have been sincere efforts.

Japan's supplementary budgets have exceeded 10 trillion yen in recent years, far above the several trillion yen typically seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Japanese government just keeps on spending and as a way to try and improve the economy but again without much success. 

Japan has one of the highest if not the highest debt to GDP ratios among advanced economies in the world but that doesn't seem to stop them from continuing to spend.

Having a high debt to GDP ratio now is not problem but it could be a challenge in future years as is could begin affect the Japanese pension system, the financial rating of the economy, and future fiscal spending in Japan.

Yes, there is the possibility of stimulating demand could be a negative affect as it will have a multiplier effect on inflation in the Japanese economy, as more spending by the Japanese government will cause or have the affect of other spending in the economy, which could increase prices.

But the effect could be just marginal as inflation has reduced the disposable income of Japanese citizens and even though there might be subsidy to help with some of the household cost, it might not be enough to have a significant effect on an increase in spending.

And again, yes the debt to GDP ratio can be a serious concern, but the Japanese government has not seen it has being a major concern yet, but that could change in the future.

Other Prime Ministers, recently, had cash handouts and even subsidies related to gas and electricity but to to no avail, as household spending didn't seem to increase that much as it didn't really increase disposable income for households.

And the cash handout is a one time situation and that can easily be spent or used up very quickly by most households and then they back to their normal situation.

A reduction in the gas tax might be good, but is it going to help everyone in the Japanese economy or just those who have cars. But its still good and needed to help car owners who might have to drive a lot in Japan.

The tax-free income threshold being increased will be a huge benefit for single family member  households, and maybe even part-time workers, and even contract workers, which will allow them to work more hours, and its good for the economy, as it will potentially have the effect of increased spending in the economy, even it just a little.

Those are all good ideas and maybe needed but to be fair are they only going to help Japanese households in the short-term or only a temporary situation and what about the long-term and can the budget be a long-term sustainable situation of the Japanese economy in the future?

But once again, this has been tried over and over by other Japanese Prime Ministers with short-term affects but it doesn't translate to long-term positives for the Japanese economy.

Only time will tell if the latest new budget is going to help Japanese households and what is really going to happen in the future as the new Prime Minister and the new Japanese government try to reduce inflation and make the lives of Japanese households and little better off.

Have a nice day!

Japan Exports to the US: Updated Dec. 10, 2025.

Japan's exports to US fall 3% in October, down for 7th straight month

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251121/p2g/00m/0bu/025000c

Ideas

Japan is a major trade country as it relies heavily on exports as a source of economic growth. It's not a surprise that US exports to the US would decrease but it's really not that apparent yet just how much in the long-run how exports are going to decrease.

The purchase of new airplanes, as expected, are more than just the purchase of small items so it natural that the trade surplus would shrink as airplane purchases are not a daily or monthly purchase.

As suggested in other reports it seems many countries or companies in other countries are absorbing the tariff rates and not passing them on to US importers or US consumers, but that could change in the future, if not already, as profit margins become thinner each quarter or even every month.

It has also been suggested that Japanese automakers are exporting less expensive cars to the US as way to keep sales higher and profits margins normal, most likely, again, focusing on maintaining market share over profits.

It make take some time for Japan chip making equipment companies to find the correct strategies to over come the US tariff situation and the same thing with pharmaceutical companies in Japan.

In many ways this could be just a normal change in the business environment as companies are needing more time to figure out to navigate the business and economic landscape, and once they come up with the best strategy sales and profits might begin to get back to some kind of normalcy.

Japan for a very long time, at least back in the day, was a semiconductor leader but due to innovation or strategy Japan lost their way and Taiwan and South Korea overtook them in market share and they are not really strong players at the moment.

However, they have begun to get back in the game with production of semiconductor equipment which appears to be their niche of expertise, as least at the present time.

The weak Japanese yen, as usual, is driving up the price of imports to Japan and that might be the reason for the trade deficit between Japan exports and imports.

Diplomatic and trade with China seems to be getting less and less and the friction between the two countries is more apparent by the month. As a result most likely China is buying less from Japan and there are less Chinese tourists entering Japan and spending money which contributes to the services export area. 

But the trade situation has been on-going for a very long time as maybe Japanese products are becoming less popular in China as China begins to produce higher quality products.

There is more to Asia then just China as there are many countries in the Asia Pacific region and Japan has been very smart to diversify its export portfolio making sure it doesn't rely only on China for exports.

But at the same time, it might be relying on the US for a large part of its exports to the rest of the world, but again, that seems normal, as any country would focus on countries where they can get the most exports as possible.

But again there is the European Union, which seems to be not so good for a number of reasons as the EU just can't get its act together and or maybe Japanese products are not just as popular as before, then again, the Ukraine war might still causing some problems for Japan exports to the EU.

Imports from the EU seem to be robust and there might not be a problem with Japanese exports as its just the normal business cycle situation of imports being more than exports and there are not really any serious problems with Japan exports to the EU.

Kind of like the US where imports are always more than exports and the US has always imported more than exported and its just a normal situation so maybe it might just the the normal situation now with imports and exports with Japan and the EU.

Yes, most likely, the US tariff situation is becoming more apparent as Japan exports to the US are decreasing while exports to the rest of the world are increasing as usual.

And then there is the China situation, as despite the trade and political friction, the Chinese economy seems to be in a transition period and all counties, not just Japan, might be experiencing less exports to China as they try get their economy on track as for a very long time they were less efficient and just poured a lot of money into manufacturing and infrastructure for growth without thinking about the long-term and what was best for the Chinese economy.

Have a nice day!

Japan Core Consumer Prices: Updated Nov. 26, 2025.

Japan's core consumer prices in October rise 3.0% on year

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251121/p2g/00m/0bu/021000c

Ideas

Ever since the pandemic, or around there, inflation has continued to increase on a yearly basis and doesn't seem to be decreasing anytime soon.

Most likely, the upper classes in Japan never worry about food costs but the lower and middle income groups for sure feel the increase in prices every time they go to the supermarket, which is almost daily in Japan.

The Japanese yen, has been on a downward spiral or in the weak currency range for a very long time, which causes import prices to be higher than usual.

Japan is a resource poor country which means it has to import much of what is needs and when the Japanese yen is weak or very weak, again import becomes too high and importers and wholesalers pass-on the high costs to the next in line in the supply chain which could include the final retail customer.

The former Prime Ministers in Japan also tried many times to decrease inflation but no matter what they tried it didn't work as inflation has continued ever since the pandemic period.

There are two types of inflation related to an economy; and the one that Japan is experiencing now is very hard to control and manage, its related to the increase of costs related to energy increases, raw material increases, and labor costs increases. 

This inflation has nothing to do with consumer spending or business spending as it just relates to an increase of supply costs.

The other kind of inflation is much easier to control and it is related to an increase in consumer spending and business spending in an economy. Usually the central bank will and can increase the key interest rate and most times the rate increase will cause consumers and businesses to cut back on on their spending which then over time inflation begins to decrease as other companies begin to decrease their prices. 

Most central banks want to keep inflation around 2 percent as they feel it's a manageable inflation and it shows that an economy is moving fast enough but not too fast.

An economy with inflation at 3 or 4 or even 5 percent might be considered moving too fast, and a central bank will increase the rate to try and slow down the economy to the 2 percent level.

In Japan's case the interest rate being above the 2 percent level is a supply problem with energy prices too high, raw material, including food costs too high and labors costs which are too high due to a supposed labor shortage in Japan where companies have to pay higher than normal wages to attract workers or keep workers.

The problem is most likely that the Bank of Japan's key rate and the US and its key rate are a long way from being equal as after the pandemic, as inflation increased in the US it increased its rate many times over a two or three year period while the Bank of Japan kept its rate almost at zero or below zero which means the variance between the two rates began to get larger and larger, which has had a negative affect on the Japanese yen being very weak for a very long time.

Consumer spending in Japan most likely has been significantly affected by the increase inflation as Japanese consumers continue to cutback on anything they don't need or even want.

But at the same time there is always inflation fatigue which is consumers get tired of not spending and or not doing things in a economy and eventually begin to spend again our of boredom and inflation fatigue. This might have happened during the pandemic or just after the pandemic in Japan as consumer spending did increase right after the pandemic.

The US is experiencing an increase in costs as they call it an affordability crisis which seems to be hitting other countries too globally.

Japan definitely has its own affordability crisis as food prices continue to remain high including the price of rice which has not gone down since the summer of 2024 rice shortage situation, which saw a run on rice in Japanese supermarkets.

Japan, it seems, will potentially always see an increase in prices due to its dependence on importing much of what it needs, as its dependent on global prices as it can't seem to get its weak currency under control which has a huge affect on the yen being weak or strong, and in this case a very weak Japanese yen.

Back in the day or maybe a decade ago or longer, Japanese companies were reluctant to increase prices or pass-on their costs to the next in the supply chain including and especially the final retail customer as they felt they would loose too many customers in the process.

These days, as the profit margins of companies become thinner and thinner they now have no choice but to pass-on their costs even to the final retail customer.

Yes, there are both positives and negatives to a weak Japanese yen, as the Bank of Japan as to weigh both the positives and the negatives and decide which as the most benefit for the Japanese economy.

Its seems at this time, as Japan is heavily dependent on exports, those companies that export seem to have the benefits for a weak yen, while importers seem to be a a disadvantage as the Japanese yen increases the prices of import products, which unfortunately the domestic economy in Japan is experiencing continued increases in prices almost since the end of of the pandemic.

Have a nice day!

BOJ Policy Ideas: Updated Dec. 7, 2025.

BOJ policymaker signals need for rate hikes to avoid distortions

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251120/p2g/00m/0bu/039000c

Ideas

If the Bank of Japan followed the normal strategies of other central banks, like the US Federal Reserve, the BOJ would increase the key interest rate often to try and reduce inflation.

But the BOJ has repeatedly, in the past, has said the Japanese economy is just too weak for interest rate increases and there might be too many side affects causing too much harm to the Japanese economy.

Future distortions as suggested might just be the opinion of one member like with the US Federal reserve now there seems to be one member who is dissenting from what others think.

The BOJ member might be correct but the consensus at the present time that the Japanese economy is in a state of concern due to the US tariff situation and how the the economy is going to handle the situation.

The Japanese economy is now in place where both inflation and the US tariff situation are both having an affect on the economy so the BOJ has to decide which is the most important and then decide the best strategy to control the situation.

A central bank in most democracies are supposed to be independent of political parties or even what they think or want as a central bank is supposed to decide, clear of politics, what is best for an economy.

That doesn't mean central banks are immune to the noise, and of course its impossible to not hear what is being said by the political party in power, but they should do their best to ignore what the government wants and use their own knowledge and judgement to find ways to manage the economy.

The Prime Minister might have some good ideas that the BOJ should listen to and maybe even seek guidance or ideas to help improve the Japanese economy.

Yes, hasty tightening could slow down economic growth but at the same time it might not, but the BOJ is a very conservative central bank and they always err on the side of caution and won't do anything that might harm economic growth or the economy.

The current Prime Minister is maybe using the same policy strategies that the late Prime Minister Abe did with the idea that fiscal spending and easy monetary policy was the best way to help an economy.

Increasing the key interest rate is not going to help stimulate consumption or consumer spending and is definitely not going to help with business investments as an increase in the key rate only causes less consumer spending and less investments in an economy.

That doesn't mean a small key interest rate increase is going to damage the economy but it must be looked at very carefully as an increase of too much might just cause a ripple effect that would begin to see less consumer spending and less business investment spending in the future.

Yes inflation and its affects on Japanese households is a concern for the Bank of Japan but so are the other economic actions taking place such as the weak Japanese yen, and the US tariff situation which are all equally important.

Again, the Bank of Japan has to decide which or these actions are the most critical for the Japanese economy and find a way to take action without causing harm to the rest of the economy.

To be fair, Japan's fiscal health has been a concern for a very long time, but the overall affect of the economy on Japanese households and Japanese businesses have taken priority over the fiscal health related to government spending.

There is no easy solution or easy answer to solve Japan's situation as it been building for a very long time and, again, to be fair, those in government have not seen fiscal health as the main priority of what the Japanese government should be working on.

A weak Japanese yen is both a positive and negative for the Japanese economy, as a weak yen brings in more profits for Japanese exports companies but a weak yen also causes import prices to be higher than normal which affect the overall domestic economy.

The problem is now with US tariff situation causing havoc with Japanese exports to the US Japanese exporters need all the help they can get and a weak Japanese yen keeps export company's profits margins profitable and without the weak yen, the profits margins might fall into disarray which which could cause problems with shareholders in the future.

The Bank of Japan has to decide if it wants a weak Japanese yen, to help Japanese exports handle the US tariff situation or try to increase the weak yen to help the domestic economy with a decrease in import prices.

Whatever the Bank of Japan chooses, it could be a losing situation for either Japanese exporters and or Japanese importers who will continue to pass-on their increase in import prices to the next in the supply chain including the final retail consumer.

The Bank of Japan is the largest buyer of Japanese government bonds as a way to help control the Japanese economy, keep money flowing through the economy and trying to combat inflation at the same time.

But it seems all of the BOJ's attempts to help or manage the economy, recently, have not worked as planned as inflation continues to increase, the Japanese yen remains weak, and the Japanese economy has not really improve that much.

A rate increase of 0.75 might be needed but then again, it might be too much for the Japanese economy at this time, as again, the US tariff situation and the inflation both are having negative affects on the Japanese economy.

Normally, a rate increase is what most central banks would do with increased inflation but with the US tariff situation causing concern for the Japanese economy and Japanese exports a rate hike might not be the best strategy as this time.

As again, the Bank of Japan seems to be erring on side of caution and delaying any rate increase until they have further evidence related to what the US tariff situation is going to do to the economy and then decide the best action to help the economy.

Have a nice day!

Japan and Foreign Visitors in Oct: Updated Nov. 18, 2025.

Japan sees 3.9 mil. foreign visitors in Oct., second highest monthly figure

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251118/p2g/00m/0li/044000c

Ideas

Foreign visitors to Japan continue to increase but at the same time, there are those who think there might be too many foreigners coming to Japan as they think there is an over-tourism problem now.

Over-tourism might only be in Tokyo, Kyoto, and Osaka as maybe the number of foreign tourist in other areas of Japan are not overpopulated yet, and probably never will be.

The popular areas of Tokyo and Kyoto will always be overpopulate while the other areas of Japan might remain as normal for the number tourists that visit there.

Unfortunately, or maybe as needed, there is talk of a tourism tax for Tokyo and Kyoto, which are the two most popular places for foreign tourists in Japan.

For many years, South Korea had a negative view of Japan because of past occupations, but it seems citizens in South Korea, or most of them don't think about the past too much as they just want to travel and experience other places.

At the same time, if you have lived in South Korea, as I have, South Korea only has a few long vacations periods so they tend to take short trips such as going to Japan which can be done on a short trip on the weekend or adding an extra day.

I used to get trips to Japan very easily and quickly but now because of the increased demand, as the last few years, such after the pandemic, it has been almost impossible to book a trip to Japan as demand has increased to the point that airline prices seemed out of control and the number of flights or seats available seemed not-existent.

Chinese citizens used to be the largest group that went to Japan, but for whatever reason, such as not enough flight available since the pandemic South Korean tourists have become the largest foreign group to go to Japan.

It seems that Japan keeps taking one step forward with relations with China and two steps back as they are always saying or doing something to cause friction between the two countries.

But it will be interesting to see if Chinese tourists continue to go to Japan with high numbers or will they follow what the Chinese govt. says and stay away from Japan.

The same can be said with South Korea for a very long time as they relations between the two counties would improve and then Japan would do something intentional or not, and South Korea would get upset with what Japan said or did. 

The two neighbors with Japan are like relatives as there is always something being said or done that causes one or both of them to get upset with Japan.

Someone in the Japanese government has suggested that the goal is 40 million foreign visitors by as certain date which I can't remember at the moment.

Not to say anything negative about what is going on in Japan but there seems to be a movement against foreigners living and working in Japan which could spill over to foreign visitors going to Japan if what is being suggested becomes reality.

For example, good or bad, it has been suggested that Japan culture is more important than population growth and they want to preserve their culture thinking too many foreigners living and working in Japan might destroy Japanese culture.

But at the same time, Japan needs more population growth if it wants to continue to fund the government as overtime there just aren't going to be enough people or Japanese citizens to keep the government programs open. 

Its going to be very challenging as Japan is at a cross-roads between growing its economy and trying to tackle is decreasing population as there might not be any other way but to increase the foreign population in Japan to keep the economy growing and even funding the national pension system in Japan.

There is going to be a lot resistance but it might be Japans only choice to save its decreasing population and decreasing economy.

Have a nice day!

Japan's July- Sept. GDP Decreases: Update Dec. 5, 2025.

Japan's July-Sept. GDP shrinks for 1st time in 6 quarters on weak exports

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251117/p2g/00m/0bu/010000c

Ideas

Overall, Japan's economy is very stable but it doesn't grow that much as its a mature economy which means there is less growth than growing or emerging economies.

An annualized or real growth of 1.8 percent might seem a positive number but it's just a projection about what might happen for the rest of fiscal 2025 in Japan.

But a decrease of 04 percent is the real number to think about as again the Japanese economy just doesn't grow that much despite its huge size. And there is the challenge with business investments which saw a decrease which might be even more important in Japan than consumer spending.

GDP, these days, still seems to be the most important indicator of economic growth in an economy but it doesn't show or represent what is really happening in the real world of consumers and households.

Not to be critical, but all governments seem to use the phrase "recovering moderately" as a way to ensure or encourage the financial markets to be stable instead of upsetting investors with some bad news.

As far as consumer spending is resilient that can be taken with a grain of salt meaning it might be somewhat good but maybe not as robust as it should be, while capital investment might be in the same situation as being good but not a robust as it should be for Japan to grow.

Private consumption or consumer spending just isn't as robust as it is in the US as Japanese consumers just aren't the big spenders like US consumers have been but even in the US that has changed some due to the continued increase in prices.

Japanese households and consumers, for the most part, have been savers more than robust spenders but might that be changing some as disposable income seems to be eroding some in Japan and maybe even eroding the amount of savings Japanese household have now.

And yes, it seems the US tariff situation has finally hit the Japanese car sector which exports significantly to the US but unfortunately Japanese car shipments are maybe going to see some changes over time as the US tariff situation is going to affect both the export sector and many other sectors in Japan.

Even a tariff rate of 15 percent might be too much for some Japanese automakers and also Japanese car parts makers which is a significant sub-sector in the Japanese economy, as there might be a large number of small and mid-size companies that produce car parts in Japan.

While Toyota and Honda might be able to whether the tariff storm but that doesn't mean the much smaller car companies will be able to do it and even the car parts makers are going to feel very challenged with the tariffs and they might not have the profit margins needed to absorb the tariffs and might have to pass-on the tariffs in the supply chain to whomever in the US.

A decrease of 0.1 percent in import prices might not be seem like much now but its too soon to tell if decreasing import prices are trending down or just a one quarter situation, as import prices have a remained high almost since the pandemic ended.

Housing costs, globally, are getting more and more expensive as material costs increase and the price of houses increased causing many young families unable to afford a new home.

It might not be so much a challenge in Japan for young families and maybe they can still get a new home, but in the US its seem very unlikely now as the cost has skyrocketed since the pandemic.

GDP might return to a recovery path in the October-December quarter but it won't be that much of a recovery as the Japanese economy is being challenged by the US tariff situation, continued inflation, and a continued weak Japanese yen, which potentially is going to keep import prices high.

Yes, its quite possible the diversification of Japanese exports from the US only to much of Asia and to many other economies has been a safety net for Japan companies as maybe they don't have to rely only on the US for their sales and profits.

Japan has always focused on as many markets as possible and for a very long time focused on market share over profits and even more focused on the long-term over the short-term that many companies today have to do because of what shareholders want and need from the companies they invest in.

Yes again, its quite possible the Japanese economy can avert a recession but not by much as it really doesn't grow that much but even a 0.1 percent or even a 0.2 percent GDP growth in the October-December quarter would be good.

With regards to digital devices, its highly unlikely that Japan is manufacturing and exporting Japanese smartphones to another Asian economies as it seems Samsung from South Korea and some of the Chinese brands have most of the market share in smartphone.

Most likely Japan is shipping other devices such as notebook computers or even other devices. At one Japan was the world leader in digital devices but many Japanese companies lost their way and stopped innovating and Chinese, Taiwanese, and South Korean companies have passed them by.

Yes, Japan is already seeing hundreds it not thousands of cancellations in airline fights and hotel bookings which is not only hurting Japan but hurting many of the Chinese tour and airline companies in China too.

It's sad, that Japan always seems to move forward one step and then backward two steps with remarks or actions that cause challenges with South Korea or China.

Its been suggested that the increase in foreign tourists going to Japan and the weak Japanese yen and their spending in Japan is like an economic driver that increases economic growth and growth in the GDP. 

But that might be a slight exaggeration as its going to take a lot more foreign tourists to spend even more to help the Japanese economy grow.

But yes, a decrease in the number of Chinese tourists is going to affect the Japanese economy in a negative way. Even if there is a significant surge in South Korean tourists or Indonesian, or Thai tourists it might not be enough to overcome the loss of Chinese tourists.

Robust demand for beverages during the summer is nothing to really be excited about as seasonal changes in the weather causes consumers to buy more cold or more hot depending on the weather.

And yes, food prices in Japan seem to keep increasing as Japanese companies are now passing-on their raw material food costs to the next in the supply chain, which is often the final retail customer.

Private consumption or consumer spending has never really been that robust in Japan except for maybe the roaring 80's when the Japanese economy was near its peak potentially and was expected to be near the largest in the world or close too it at the time.

Consumer spending in Japan is just too low to really have a serious impact on the Japanese economy as 50 percent of GDP is just not enough as it needs to be around 60 percent to really have an impact on the economy.

Capital investment is very important for the Japanese economy and might be even more important than consumer spending to help lift the economy out of its stagnation phase which it has been stuck in for some time.

But the key to capital investment is what Japanese companies think about the future of the Japanese economy, as if think its going to grow they will invest if not they usually take a wait and see approach.

So a 1.0 percent increase in capital investments is not the greatest as maybe many companies are still taking a wait and see approach and hoping the Japanese economy is going to get better in the future.

To be fair, many previous Prime Ministers also had economic packages to help the economy and help Japanese households but they might have helped in the short-term but in the long-term the packages didn't do much.

And then there is what the Japanese Prime Minister wants and plans and always gets watered down in the Japanese Diet as politics unfortunately, good or bad, can change the plans often.

Yes again in the Japanese Diet the other political parties might have their own ideas about how to improve the economy and until they they debate the ideas in session it won't be known what the exact final economic package will look like.

Nominal GDP is not really that important other than to show maybe how much inflation has affected the Japanese economy, as real GDP is what is important for Japanese consumers and Japanese households as it shows much their their disposable income has increased or decreased and how much purchasing power they have or don't have in the economy.

Have a nice day!