Japan Industrial Output:

 Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20230228/p2g/00m/0bu/014000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's industrial output in January fell 4.6 percent from the previous month for the first decline in three months due to weakening demand amid concern over a global economic slowdown, government data showed Tuesday.

The seasonally adjusted index of production at factories and mines stood at 91.4 against the 2015 base of 100, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a preliminary report. The decline followed an upwardly revised 0.3 percent expansion in December.

The index figure was the lowest since 88.0 marked in May 2022 under the impact of a coronavirus lockdown in Shanghai, according to the ministry.

Ideas:

Japan's industrial output might have slowed some but in a market economy, there are many sectors and industries. While some might have decrease in production, others might have increased in their business. 

Yes, there might be a global economic slowdown, but that doesn't mean all sectors or all industries are slowing. 

Its important to identify which sectors or industries are still doing good and which ones are now challenged to the supposed global slowdown. 

Article:

The ministry retained its basic assessment from the previous month that industrial production is "weakening," with an expected increase in production in February unlikely to offset the decline in January, a ministry official said.

Of the 15 industrial sectors covered by the survey, 12 logged output falls and three showed increases.

By sector, motor vehicles contributed the most to the overall decline due to parts shortages and the halting of factory operations amid heavy snow, falling 10.1 percent from the previous month.

Ideas:

Industrial production might be "weakening" and even though 12 of the 15 logged output decreases but how much were the decreases overall; 1 percent, 5 percent 10 percent or more.

You would think companies, because of expected challenges, they have built into their production systems, expected shortages and weather challenges each year, and prepare accordingly each year for the challenges expected.

It might not be possible to predict weather challenges and or even supply parts shortages but for the supply parts shortages they can of course try to keep a running supply to try and fend off or limit the shortages as much as possible.

Article:

The production machinery sector also weighed on the overall figure, dropping 13.5 percent from the previous month with decreased output of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, the data showed.

The three sectors reporting output increases included general-purpose and business oriented machinery, as well as chemicals, excluding inorganic and organic chemicals and medicine, which saw increases of 5.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, helped by the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, the official said.

Ideas:

These numbers, as seen, might not be that big a deal but of course for investors they might be a big deal. 

But it must be remembered to look at the big picture or the long-term and not just one week or one month or even one quarter and see what is really happening. 

For example an industry or company could have a not so good month or even a ot so good quarter for the rest of the year have good results overall.

Maybe some companies and industries are still trying to recover from the pandemic and they are not back to the 2019 level just yet.

Article:

The petroleum and coal products sector also increased 6.6 percent from the previous month.

The index of industrial shipments dropped 3.1 percent to 89.7, falling for the fifth consecutive month, while that of inventories slipped 0.9 percent to 102.3 for the second straight month of decline.

Based on a poll of manufacturers, the ministry expects output to increase 8.0 percent in February and edge up 0.7 percent in March.

Ideas:

Again it must be remembered to look at the big picture or the long-term situation and not just a few months and see what is happening for the year. 

An industry or even a company might have less that expected results but the situation might change quickly and the negative results can easily be wiped away over time. 

But it today's investment environment, investors unfortunately are no longer willing to take a long-term view as they want results yesterday and they aren't willing for company or even an industry to see better results down the road.

Have a nice day and be safe! 

Toyota Global Sales: Ideas Later

 Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20230227/p2g/00m/0bu/024000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Toyota Motor Corp. said Monday its global sales for January fell 5.6 percent from a year earlier to 709,870 vehicles, marking the second straight month of decline amid a semiconductor shortage and shorter business days in China.

The global chip shortage continued to hit the world's largest automaker while the Lunar New Year holiday period in China, which fell in January this year, cut operating hours at its dealers, the Japanese firm said.

Overseas sales fell 9.7 percent to 579,652 units as the figure for the Chinese market, also hit by the termination of economic stimulus measures to promote purchases of new cars, plunged 23.5 percent. The North American market saw a 12.8 percent fall due to a decline in inventories.

Domestic sales, including mini-vehicles, rose 18.0 percent to 130,218 units in a rebound from a year before when the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic was more severe.

The overall easing of a parts shortage, not including semiconductors, helped drive up production, with Toyota's global output increasing 8.8 percent to 689,090 cars thanks to a 30.1 percent jump in domestic production to 211,572 units.

Overseas production increased 1.4 percent to 477,518 vehicles as growth in North America and Europe was partially offset by a decline in China.

Toyota earlier this month lowered its global production target for fiscal 2022, which will end next month, to 9.1 million units from 9.2 million. The automaker said it will continue to face difficulty procuring semiconductors but noted that the revised figure is still a record high.

Toyota said it expects to produce about 750,000 units in February, almost the same level as a year earlier, and about 900,000 vehicles in March, a record high for a single month.

Global output by Japan's eight major car makers, including Toyota, for January, fell 2.9 percent to 1.86 million units as they struggled to secure enough chips to build cars.

Five of the eight companies saw production declines, with output at Honda Motor Co. dropping 21.7 percent to 280,757 vehicles, while Nissan Motor Co. logged a 25.1 percent decline to 224,236 units.

Suzuki Motor Corp. bucked the trend posting a 22.9 percent increase to 295,345 cars, helped by record-high production in India for a single month, as it focused on models using chips that are easy to procure, it said.

Combined global sales for the eight firms fell 9.6 percent to 1.77 million vehicle

Japan Consumer Prices:

 Article Source:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20230224/p2g/00m/0bu/018000c

Article: 

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Core consumer prices in Japan jumped 4.2 percent in January from a year earlier, rising at the fastest pace since September 1981 on higher energy and food prices, government data showed Friday.

Excluding volatile fresh food items, the core consumer price index was above the Bank of Japan's 2 percent inflation target for the 10th straight month, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said, though the central bank views the trend as temporary.

The ministry said that due to the government's decision to subsidize utility bills for consumers, electricity and gas prices are expected to be lower in February.

Ideas:

The Bank of Japan might view the trend as temporary but what about the Japanese consumer who have to live with the high prices. 

The BOJ can say what they want of course but the Japanese consumer has to live with the constant increase in prices each and every month. 

At the same time its good that the Japanese government is subsidizing utility bills to help the average consumer overcome the high energy and utility prices.

The Bank of Japan's inflation target of 2 percent of course was/is more concerned with consumer demand and consumer spending with the idea as consumers spent more and demand became higher inflation would naturally increase.

Article:

The impact on the index of further hikes in food prices expected from February will likely be offset by the reduced electricity and gas prices, an official from the ministry said.

In January, energy prices rose 14.6 percent, with electricity and city gas climbing 20.2 percent and 35.2 percent, respectively.

Food prices went up 7.4 percent, including for products such as fried chicken, potato chips, and hamburgers, as companies passed on the increase in raw material, transportation fees and other costs to consumers.

Ideas:

Japanese companies, for a very long time, were reluctant to pass-on their increased costs to the next in the supply chain even the final consumer. 

But now maybe companies can no longer hold their profit margins at a reasonable level and now they have no choice but to pass-on their costs.

Food prices in Japan, for the most part, have always been reasonable but now for some, they aren't as reasonable as before. 

As a result some consumers will be more selective in what they buy and maybe try to find substitutes a a lower price with the same quality if possible.

But there are always trade-offs in a market economy. What's good for one maybe is a challenge for another. So while some products and companies might see it as a challenge, that might mean better opportunities for other companies. 

Article:

January's inflation rate advanced from 4.0 percent marked in December last year as the government's subsidy program to spur the tourism sector was trimmed in the reporting month, resulting in a smaller fall in accommodation fees.

Japan has seen inflation grow, as the weaker yen coupled with the Bank of Japan's ultraeasy monetary easing policy has raised import costs. Russia's war against Ukraine and the consequent disruption to supply chains have pushed up raw materials and energy costs.

The BOJ has maintained its monetary easing policy because the 2 percent inflation target has yet to be achieved in a "stable and sustainable fashion," accompanied by wage growth.

Ideas:

Observing hotel rates, in Yokohama for example, it seems all hotels have increase their rates, and maybe they are trying to make up for lost revenue during the pandemic and or course maintain their profit margin with the higher energy prices and as such they have had to increase their overall prices..

Japanese consumers are not used to inflation or the constant increase in prices. As a result, consumer sentiment, or feeling, or the willingness to spend will be less because of the constant increase in prices. 

As a result the BOJ's 2 percent target related to natural consumer demand and consumer spending might not be reached anytime soon. 

Wage growth is the key to getting Japanese consumers to spend again to the point that it affect the BOJ's 2 percent target.

Article:

BOJ governor nominee Kazuo Ueda told a confirmation hearing in parliament on Friday the central bank's 2 percent inflation target is still far off and that he will maintain monetary easing to support the economy if appointed the bank's chief as successor to incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose term is set to end in April.

Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute, said companies are likely to remain under pressure through June to increase prices on foods and daily items.

Ideas:

The BOJ's 2 percent target will not be reached until consumers feel good about spending again, and in order for them to feel good, they need more wage growth from the companies. 

As companies' profit margins continue to shrink due to increased material costs they will continue to pass-on their costs to whomever is next in the supply chain, whether a company or the final consumer.

As a result consumer spending it not going to be where it should be in the near-future as some consumers might not spend as much as they would have before the pandemic and the current inflation situation.

Article:

But "the core CPI could fall below 2 percent by the end of 2023," Minami said.

"Pressure on the retail sector to increase prices would likely ease as spending momentum is also weakened due to the price hikes," he said, adding that many businesses have also been adapting to rises in raw materials and other costs since Russia's invasion of Ukraine started a year ago.

Ideas:

The core CPI is just an average number as it really doesn't show what consumer feel or think as for some consumer prices on what they need and buy might be above be 2 percent level while for some consumers it might be below what they buy and need.

Regular supply and demand, in theory, might have some play here, as prices increase consumers spend less. But of course it all depends on what they need and want.

And they can of course try to find substitutes for product that become too high if they can find them.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Overall Trade Deficit:

 Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20230216/p2g/00m/0bu/026000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan posted its largest-ever trade deficit of 3.5 trillion yen ($26 billion) in January after energy import prices jumped and export growth slowed, with record red ink logged with major trading partner China, the Finance Ministry said Thursday.

The deficit, roughly a 1.6-fold increase from a year earlier, exceeded the previous record of 2.82 trillion yen in August last year, highlighting the vulnerability of the resource-poor country that relies on other nations for energy.

Japan logged red ink for the 18th consecutive month, according to the ministry.

Ideas:

The Bank of Japan must know that the trade deficit is decreasing Japan's current account yet it still keep the same ulta-low policy. 

The BOJ must have it reasons compared to what the US and the EU is doing with it interest rates.

As far as energy goes, Japan needs to find a different strategy that ensures its energy costs don't keep causing concern for the economy, such as depleting the current account related to the variance between US interest rates and the Japan interest rate.

Of course there is always the idea just how much should a government intervene in a market economy and or not enough intervention is always a challenge to do or not do.

Article:

China's Lunar New Year holidays began in January, earlier than in recent years, likely contributing to Japan's biggest trade deficit with the country of 1.42 trillion yen. China-bound shipments tend to decline during the holiday period.

In January, total imports surged 17.8 percent to 10.05 trillion yen, boosted by coal, liquefied natural gas and crude oil, according to the ministry's preliminary report.

Exports rose 3.5 percent to 6.55 trillion yen, helped by U.S.-bound cars. The values of both imports and exports were the highest for the month of January since comparable data became available in 1979.

Ideas:

Like most countries, economies with long holiday periods, probably many factories in those countries shut down or just have minimal production during the holiday period.

The value of imports to Japan was obviously influence by the variance between the US interest rate and the Japan rate which causes the Japanese yen to be weak resulting in higher import prices compared to normal situations.

The values might have been the highest in January since 1979 but it important to remember that Japan might still be recovering from a slow-down during the pandemic and is still not back to the 2019 level.

Exports also benefit from a weak currency and most likely its value too was nominal compared to what it would have been if the rate was normal and not weak.

Article:

Slowing export growth is a worrying sign that the global economy is losing strength amid aggressive interest rate hikes in major economies.

"The fall in Chinese exports may be a seasonal factor but we'll need more data to see if that's the case. What's worrying is export volumes to the United States and Europe are not doing well, and slowing economic growth may be inevitable in these economies toward mid-2023," said Chisato Oshiba, an economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

"The surge in commodity prices and the yen's rapid depreciation seen last year may be over, reducing import costs. Crude oil prices have fallen but they are still at high levels and could stay there," Oshiba added.

Ideas:

It's important to see the big picture or the entire global economy but there are different sectors or industries that don't always align with each other. Some sector or industry might be doing better than another sector such for Japan cars to the US might be doing good but another area or industry might not be doing as good.

The same goes for different countries. China might be slowing not so good now but exports to the US might be doing better.

At the same time as the US and the EU continue to increase its key interest rate, as supposed-way to reduce inflation it might mean less spending which might mean less less exports to those countries over time.

But it also important to know from quarter to quarter situations can change quickly. So even though Q1 might be low for exports Q2 could be much better and so on.

Article:

Japan's exports to China dropped 17.1 percent to 967.45 billion yen, while imports rose 12.3 percent to 2.39 trillion yen.

Japan eked out a surplus of 280.68 billion yen with the United States, another major trading partner for Japan.

Exports to the United States increased 10.2 percent to 1.23 trillion yen, compared with imports that grew 21.5 percent to 950.36 billion yen, the highest amount for the month of January.

Ideas:

Most likely the China situation is a combination of continued logistics challenges and weak demand for Japanese products. It's not easy to see which had the most challenges as it's not easy to get complete information related to what is happening in China sometimes.

Exports to the US, while not great is still good with a 10.2 percent increase. But again a weak yen might be inflating the value of exports so the real value might be less.

For imports from the US to Japan again the weak yen is inflating the prices of products and not reflect what the real value of imports should be.

So the exchange rate was more normal the differences between exports and imports might be even more, but it's hard to say exactly what the real difference would be.

Article:

Japan had a trade deficit with the rest of Asia, including China, of 1.38 trillion yen, while it registered a deficit of 173.79 billion yen with the European Union.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has been hiking interest rates aggressively to fight inflation and the same is true in the eurozone.

Japan is still far from monetary policy tightening but financial markets are rife with speculation that the Bank of Japan's ultra low rate policy will be tweaked if academic Kazuo Ueda is approved by parliament to become the central bank's next governor.

Ideas:

It's not easy to speculate or guess which Japan has a trade deficit still with the rest of Asia other than maybe because of its deficit with China it overshadows the rest of what Japan does with the other countries.

Trade deficits are not all bad but with the currency exchange being weak and many countries trading in or use US dollars for their trading that could be a factor sometimes for the trade deficit.

Most likely it could just be a weak global economy and demand or trade overall has not returned to the 2019 level yet. 

Of course the Japanese weak yen but be part of the challenge too and the weak yen means Japanese products become more expensive in other countries so the refrain from buying until the exchange rate in favor with that country.

Article:

The policy divergence between Japan and the United States has sharply weakened the yen against the dollar. While the intense selling pressure has eased somewhat, the Japanese currency remains 15 percent lower than in January 2022.

"It may be an indication that export growth supported by pent-up demand (in the United States and Europe) is taking a breather. The impact of rate hikes has yet to be fully seen," said Kota Suzuki, an economist at Daiwa Securities Co.

"Despite the easing of China's 'zero-COVID' policy the outlook for its economy is not rosy with simmering real estate woes. Japan's trade deficit will likely shrink in the coming months, but it will be difficult to return to the black," Suzuki said.

Ideas:

The weak yen might be a challenge for some US companies that want to buy Japanese products. 

The US has always been a consumer oriented consumer buying culture. And yes, maybe after two years and or a year since the pandemic really ended pent-up demand as has eased somewhat and consumers and companies are taking a breather before the summer buying season begins in full force.

Even at 15 percent below it normal level, or lower that 2022 its still low enough to have an effect on import and export prices overall.

China might be trying to get past the pandemic situation or get past it own pandemic roadblocks but will take some time before China can overcome it internal domestic economic challenges. 

As far as the Japanese economy goes, while it might be moving or has move out of the pandemic situation its economy is always both in a state of concern with low consumer buying, d a high ageing society and young people not buying like US young people. 

And then add in the wage challenge in Japan compared to inflation and Japan has a set of continuous challenges it has to overcome in the future

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Electronics Trade Deficit:

 Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20230219/p2g/00m/0bu/029000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan posted a trade deficit of 81.2 billion yen ($605 million) in electronic equipment in the second half of 2022, government data showed, marking the first time on record imports have exceeded exports for a half-year period amid a decline in the competitiveness of Japanese products.

The deficit in the balance of trade in electronics also reflects a move by Japanese manufacturers to shift their production bases overseas.

The first red ink since comparable data became available in 1988 provides a stark contrast to the 1990s, when the industry propped up the nation's trade with an annual surplus of almost 8 trillion yen.

Ideas:

The trade deficit or some of it might be related not so much a lack of demand for Japanese electronic products but more related to the increase in prices of imports into Japan because of the variation in the US dollar and the Japanese yen.

I don't think Japanese products have lost competitiveness compared to Chinese or South Korean products but more related to the dollar/yen situation.

Yes Japan products are very much in competition with South Korean car, Chinese cars and other products now but it's too early to think Japanese products are losing competitiveness unless we can consider the dollar/yen situation as a major factor. 

Of course as Japanese manufactures move on and locate to other countries with better tax rates and or better logisticall locations its only natural that it's going to affect the import/export balance in Japan.

Article:

According to the Finance Ministry's trade data, exports of electronic equipment in the six months through December totaled 9.23 trillion yen, up 13.9 percent from the first six months, while imports rose 17.2 percent to 9.31 trillion yen.

Imports of semiconductors and other electronic components increased as production recovered following the coronavirus pandemic, with the yen's depreciation against the U.S. dollar also boosting imports by value.

Japan's trade balance has been on a downward trend since the late 2000s, with the global financial crisis in 2008 spurring Japanese electronics companies to move production to countries with lower production costs.

Ideas:

The 13.9 percent increase in export and 17.2 percent increase in import could again be nothing more than the dollar/yen difference which is making imports look more expensive in value compared to exports.

At the same time, as Japanese manufacturers were experiencing shortages of supplies related to semiconductors maybe now they are making up for lost time in terms of imports into Japan which again could show a variance between imports and exports.

Lets hope we won't see a major trend of shifting of Japanese manufacturing jobs to other countries or economies around the world as Japanese manufacturing and exporting is or was a major driver or was major part of the Japanese economy.

Article:

Imports of electronics in the second half of last year increased 9.1 times while exports only increased 1.8 times, compared with the second half of 1991, when Japan logged a record half-year trade surplus of 4.17 trillion yen.

Tough competition with U.S. Apple Inc.'s iPhone and other foreign brands' smartphones has also contributed to growing imports.

Among items with trade losses, communications equipment including smartphones posted a deficit of 1.79 trillion yen in the July-December period, followed by household appliances at 400.3 billion yen, and audio visual equipment 309.3 billion yen.

Ideas:

Its been said or suggested that major Japanese electronics companies have given up trying to compete with Apple and Samsung. At one the Sony rules the electronic world. 

But something happened along the way or maybe just normal business where other companies innovate and come up with better quality products.

Of course products now from China and maybe India will begin to eventually begin to affect the market share of Apple and Samsung in the future. 

As far as Japan goes, as I check out Yodobashi Camera and other electronics stores in Japan, while stores may continue to try and sell Japanese smartphones the bigger show areas or display area are related to Apple products.

At the same time as I browse through other areas there a huge selections of appliances and TVs still being sold at Yodobashi but maybe not exactly sold but just there and not really a lot of sales.

Article:

Meanwhile, semiconductors and other electronic components posted a trade surplus of 378.4 billion yen, and electric circuits and equipment 813.6 billion yen.

While some Japanese companies have been working to move production back home due to supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks, Hiromi Oki, chief researcher at the Institute for International Trade and Investment, believes the current state of trade will not change in the future.

"Companies should instead see this as an opportunity to invest in more value-added products and strengthen technological development," Oki said.

Ideas:

Those products as mentioned above Japan might have a absolute advantage in compared to other countries and should continue to produce them.

Japan is noted for having very small electronic manufacturers which might produce one small electronic part that is exports globally to many electronic companies

If China, for example, continues to have logistics challenges along with geopolitical risks it might be wise for Japanese companies to look for better economic situations, including Japan for business.

Consumers are looking for value-added products now and any company, not just Japanese companies should make sure their product provide value that consumers want and need.

And it goes without saying companies and economies need to with increase technological as those that don't innovate will get left behind as the situation with Sony as shown.

Apple, Samsung, and other companies know they need to keep innovating or they will be left behind in the future.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Government Economy View:

 Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20230221/p2g/00m/0na/061000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The government on Tuesday retained its monthly assessment that the Japanese economy is "picking up moderately" despite some weakness while changing its wording on wholesale prices for the first time in about a year to reflect slower price growth.

In the economic report for February, the Cabinet Office maintained its assessments of 11 key components of the economy, ranging from private consumption and corporate spending to production and exports.

Corporate goods prices "are rising at a slower pace recently," the report said, a change from the previous month's expression that they are "rising." The last time the Cabinet Office modified its wording on the segment was in March 2022.

Ideas:

The economy might be picking up moderately but to that is all its going to do and any large and advance economy is not going to grow like it did in the past.

But even a economy the size of Japan, with the 3rd largest economy in the world is still a lot of economic activity. It might not reach 4 percent or even 3 percent of GDP growth but a 1.5 and or 2 percent economic growth is still very good for Japan.

There are always going to be some weaknesses in any economy as not all sectors grow at the same rate every month or every year.

Wholesale price increased might have slowed some but most likely they are still too high for most consumers and or consumer sentiment is not so good because of the increase in prices.

Article:

Wholesale prices "remain at high levels compared with a year earlier but are flat from the previous month," a government official said.

The prices of goods traded between companies tend not to affect consumer prices immediately, and economists expect consumer inflation to remain at high levels for some time. The office said consumer prices are "rising," leaving its wording unchanged from January.

The report came after data released last week showed Japan's economy rebounded in the October-December quarter but lacked strength, with gross domestic product increasing an annualized real 0.6 percent.

Ideas:

Wholesale prices might be flat but they are still too high for some businesses and some consumers and inflation related to the import products is still too high.

The US exchange rate and Japan exchange rate situation is not helping imports in Japan which make prices higher than what they should normally be in a normal situation.

The Japanese economy might have rebounded, somewhat, but "lacked strength" is probably a good description of where the economy is at this time.

An annualized rate of 0.6 for the Japan's GDP is still not bad but not good too. At least its not a negative figure. It continues at it present pace Japan should be somewhat OK with somewhat moderate growth.

Article:

The Cabinet Office had downgraded its assessment of the overall economy in January for the first time in 11 months, saying it was "picking up moderately, although some weaknesses have been seen recently" due to a drop in exports caused by surging COVID-19 cases in China.

Despite broadening price hikes hurting household sentiment, the office said private consumption "is picking up moderately," helped by a recovery in service demand that was depressed amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Corporate investment, another key component of domestic demand, is "picking up," it added.

Monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and other central banks has fueled recession fears, though recent U.S. data have shown the world's largest economy remains resilient.

Ideas:

Exports are always going to be in the news as exports are a prime driver of the Japanese economy despite Japan have a large domestic economy too. 

Perhaps as all economies around the world move away from the pandemic situation global trade might get back to the 2019 level before the pandemic.

Private consumption or consumer spending might be picking up but can it be sustained at level enough to help the economy grow or is it now just latent spending after the pandemic situation.

Corporate investment also needs to be sustainable for a long term period for better overall economic growth. But will companies continue to invest or is it just a momentary glitch or one time thing as not then companies reduce their corporate investments.

Article:

 Economists expect slower growth for China, a major trading partner for Japan.

"Exports have been on a weakening trend recently," the report said.

Ideas:

China may grow like it did in the past which is historically common for all economies. As it moves from developing to other phases it takes more and more resources to grow the economy along with more and more sectors beginning to see more ups and downs and not always constant linear growth as before. 

We wee this in the Chinese construction and housing market which has/had rippling affect globally.

And then add in the continuous increase in labor cost in China as some companies might begin to think about moving other economies such as Vietnam. 

Export and China are always a concern, because of the political situation and of course the pandemic situation. 

It would be wise for Japan not to put all of its eggs in one basket or rely too much in trade with China but continue spread out it exports as much as possible. 

Have a nice day and be safe!