Japan Business Sentiment:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210913/p2g/00m/0bu/027000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Business sentiment among large Japanese companies in the July-September period turned positive for the first time in three quarters, as progress in COVID-19 inoculations lifted expectations for an economic recovery, a government survey showed Monday.

The confidence index covering firms capitalized at 1 billion yen ($9.1 million) or more registered plus 3.3, up from minus 4.7 in the April-June period, according to the joint survey by the Finance Ministry and Cabinet Office.

The figures are calculated by subtracting the percentage of firms reporting worsening conditions from those observing improvements.

Ideas:

While its good that maybe more firms are turning positive, the Japanese economy has a long way to go before the Japanese economy turns the corner with a sustained positive outlook.

The trends recently of course related to the continued emergence situations as fluctuated between some positive some negative but never sustained trend in either direction.

Maybe now with the lifting of the emergency measures there are going to be signs of an upward trend to more and more companies appear positive.

But at the same there is supply chain challenges along the semiconductor chip shortage.

Article: 

"Business conditions remain severe due to coronavirus infections, but the outcome likely reflected the fact that the economy has continued on a recovery trend, with firms' sentiment enhanced as the vaccination campaign was promoted," a government official told reporters.

The index for manufacturers stood at plus 7.0, up from minus 1.4 in the previous quarter, turning positive for the first time in two quarters. Demand for products including chip-making equipment and semiconductors used for cars surged amid a global chip shortage, the official said.

The index for nonmanufacturers, including accommodations and restaurants, became positive for the first time in three quarters as it rose to plus 1.5 from minus 6.2, with more people in Japan getting vaccinated.

Ideas:

Yes, business conditions for many companies and industries are still not good. But as more and more people become vaccinated and as the government begins to open up the economy more with less measures, it will provide the background to the beginning of a more positive outlook in the future.

Its not going to happen immediately as just because the Japanese government decided to lift the emergency measures doesn't automatically mean all business are now going to start doing better.

Its going to take time for many things to return to some kind of normal or new normal.

Services for example may take much longer to fully recover than manufacturing areas. As services might entail restaurants, hotels, tourist businesses, airlines and so on.

As there are always positives and negatives in a market economy, the demand for  chip-making equipment and semiconductors will continue to increase even with the global shortage.

Article:

The index was also bolstered by a recovery in fields such as advertising, rebounding from a plunge caused by the initial blow of the pandemic last year, the official said.

Japan initially lagged behind other major economies in inoculating its people, but the minister in charge of virus response said Sunday more than 50 percent of the country's population has now been fully vaccinated and that the rate will soon catch up with major European economies such as Britain and France.

The survey covered 14,580 companies capitalized at 10 million yen or more, with 11,143, or 76.4 percent, responding by Aug. 15. In mid-August, the nation was seeing increasing cases of daily new infections amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant of the virus.

Ideas:

Most likely fields such as advertising over the past 18 months has not been too good and of course much less than before the pandemic.

And now as advertising companies begin to see changes in the economy, business environment, and consumer demand maybe beginning to return they probably feel much better about their situation in the coming months.

August seems like a long time ago just like the spring of 2020 seems like a long time ago and maybe now there is a chance for more enthusiasm to enter the Japanese business mindset and businesses maybe see a brighter future, at least for some now and others later.

As more and more people become vaccinated hopefully more and more people/consumers will be out and about, but also remain vigilant as the virus variants are still out there too.

Article:

The index also turned positive for midsize companies capitalized at 100 million yen or more but less than 1 billion yen, increasing to plus 0.2 from minus 9.0 in April-June.

The index for small firms capitalized at 10 million yen or more but less than 100 million yen remained negative at minus 18.0, but improving from minus 25.5 in the previous period.

Looking forward, the indices forecasting business conditions for large companies in the three months through December and the following quarter through March were both plus 6.8.

Ideas:

Most likely midsize companies are beginning to feel somewhat better. But at the same time, it depends on what industry or kind of business the midsize company is in. If they are in the manufacturing area or similar areas than most likely they are feeling better.

But if they are in anything related to services most likely they might not be feeling as good as the manufacturing companies as the services sector companies might not be doing so good yet.

Yes some might be doing good and maybe even not much affect related to the pandemic. But many services companies were probably heavily affected by the pandemic and it might take some time for them to feel positive.

And the same can be said for small firms. Again if they were/are in anyway related to the manufacturing sector they might be feeling positive.

But for the small firms related to the services sector they might not be feeling too good and again it might take some time to feel positive. 

But unfortunately, there might be some who never recover from the pandemic.

There are the companies, if at all possible, the the Japanese government along with the Bank of Japan should try to help recover from the pandemic.

Have a nice day and be safe!