Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Japan Current Account:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210408/p2g/00m/0bu/058000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's current account surplus for February marked the first year-on-year decrease in seven months, mainly due to a rebound in imports from a slump seen a year ago due to the coronavirus outbreak in China and weak exports, government data showed Thursday.

    The current account balance, one of the widest gauges of international trade, logged a surplus of 2.92 trillion yen ($27 billion), down 4.7 percent from the previous year while registering the 80th straight month of black ink, the Finance Ministry said in a preliminary report.

    The country's goods trade surplus more than halved to 524.2 billion yen from 1.36 trillion yen in the black the previous year, mainly due to an 11.8 percent rise in imports to 5.55 trillion yen for the first increase in 22 months.

    Ideas:

    Trade deficits and trade surpluses are unique to specific countries, meaning Japan, for example, is a trade surplus type economy. 

    Whenever the value of exports exceeds the value of imports there will be trade surplus.

    As Japan is major export country, there has been 80 straight months of a trade surplus.

    It also mean more money is coming into the country that is going out.

    Most times, with a favorable currency exchange rate exporters bring money into the country, while the opposite happens with imports, money goes out of the country as importers, or whomever, have to pay for the imports coming into Japan, and as such money leaves the country.

    Article:

    Imports from Asian nations expanded 36.9 percent, with a government official telling reporters that those from China, the first major economy severely impacted by the virus outbreak, have largely recovered.

    The novel coronavirus was first detected in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019, forcing manufacturers to halt production in the world's second-largest economy in early 2020.

    Exports dropped 4.0 percent to 6.08 trillion yen, down for the first time in three months, with sluggish demand in auto exports to the United States as well as in mineral fuel shipments to Australia.

    Ideas:

    As economies continue to recover and as supply chains try to get back to normal, it begins to allow the flow of products more easily between countries.

    Auto exports can be both a positive and a negative at the same time. While there might be a demand for Japanese cars in the US there is also the challenge of semiconductor chips used and needed in cars that is slowing the production and shipping of Japanese cars to the US.

    And then there is the consumer. Not all consumers want to buy a car at the same time. So automakers are always at the whim of when car buyers want or need to buy a car.

    And also there is the idea, even with vaccinations moving forward in the US, the US economy is not back to normal and may not be back to the pre-pandemic level until 2022, and there are still a large number without jobs, looking for jobs, or working low-wage jobs as the moment, and may not be willing to buy a new car at this time.

    Article:

    The services trade balance posted a deficit of 75.7 billion yen, reduced to less than one-third from the previous year's red ink of 269.9 billion yen.

    In the service trade category, the travel surplus nosedived 46.3 percent to 21.1 billion yen as continuing international travel bans amid the pandemic have had a huge impact on the number of inbound visitors. But the pace has slowed compared to the 91.6 percent decline logged in January.

    The surplus in primary income, which reflects returns on overseas investments, grew 25.0 percent from the previous year to 2.63 trillion yen, boosted by an increase in returns on direct overseas investments, the official said.

    The ministry had previously said the current account surplus in January stood at 646.8 billion yen, down 2.3 percent from a year ago, marking the first decline in five months. But an annual revision tweaked the figure to 644.4 billion yen in the black, up 16.8.

    Ideas:

    The service industry in Japan, probably like most countries, may have been the hardest hit sector in the economy.

    While the manufacturing industry and the logistics areas related to manufacturing seems to have somewhat recovered, especially the links to China, the services industry is completely different.

    As the services industry can be anything such as restaurants, bars, hotels, retail, airlines, and or course the travel segment.

    Both the domestic and international travel segment may not recover for years.

    The domestic segment will of course begin to recover much sooner but the idea that a million international tourists are suddenly going to be let back into Japan once more countries are vaccinated, and especially China with is almost one million tourists a month is not going to happen to soon.

    Some countries are beginning to experiment with travel bubble or travel exchanges between countries. 

    But at this time its still all an experiment with the new variants increasing.

    So the Japanese government, as much as possible, should continue to help and support those businesses hit hard by the loss of international tourists.

    Have a nice day and be safe!

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