Japan Q1:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210501/p2g/00m/0bu/013000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's economy in the January to March quarter is estimated to have shrunk an annualized real 4.8 percent, as a second state of emergency over the coronavirus pandemic dampened consumption, economists said Friday.

The average estimate by 10 economists polled by Kyodo News indicates the world's third-largest economy likely logged its first shrinkage since an annualized 29.3 percent contraction in the three months ended in June 2020, its worst economic plunge on record triggered by its first virus emergency.

The Cabinet Office is scheduled to release preliminary GDP data for this year's first quarter on May 18.

Ideas:

An economy, any economy, is very complicated mix of different kinds of businesses and sectors. And then you add in government spending and consumer spending and it can be even more complicated.

As such, no economy ever has equal growth in all sectors or areas.

Its been mentioned recently the manufacturing sector has shown excellent growth since a year ago.

Bu the service sector, which include the tourism industry has done just the opposite.

But even in normal times, before the pandemic, as stated above, not all sectors every grow at the same rate. As some grow faster, some slower, and some decrease.

Article:

With the forecasts ranging between decreases of 3.5 percent and 8.8 percent, the economists all cited the impact of the country's second state of emergency, declared in early January for the Tokyo metropolitan area and later expanded to 11 out of the nation's 47 prefectures amid a third wave of virus infections since November.

Asking for people to stay home and restaurants and bars to close early to curb the virus spread, the measure led private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's GDP, to a sharp drop. It was fully lifted in late March.

In addition, the government's "Go To Travel" subsidy program, launched last July to help the tourism industry weather the fallout from the pandemic, has been suspended since late December in response to a spike in virus cases.

Ideas:

Consumer spending, estimated at around 50 percent of Japan's GDP is always a challenge. And and now the pandemic it has become eve more of a challenge.

It seems, according to the Bank of Japan and how they communicate about consumer spending, that consumer spending in Japan never reaches the level of its true potential.

Most likely because of the ageing population challenge in the economy and the fact, for the most part, Japanese consumers have neve been the big spenders like in the US or other countries.

The closing bars and restaurants has been multiple pronged challenge as not only does it affect the restaurants and bars but also all of the suppliers of restaurants and bars, and also those connect to the suppliers further down the supply chain.

So you have multiple affects related to the closings of businesses.

Of course you can say the same thing with other services companies such hotels, airlines, tourist related businesses.

You can also call it the multiplier affect, meaning the restaurants close, then the suppliers to restaurants are affected, then the suppliers to the suppliers, and then maybe the logistics companies, and then all of the workers in all of the companies, who lose income and then they have less income to spend in the economy, and then even more businesses are affected and it goes on.

Article:

"Consumption in the service sector dropped remarkably due to the virus emergency, affecting the economy," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, who forecast an annualized 4.9 percent GDP decline in the quarter ended March.

The Japanese economy had rebounded with double-digit percentage growth on an annualized basis for two straight quarters through the October to December quarter, boosted by brisk exports on the back of a firm recovery in the global economy as well as consumer spending coming back to life.

But the economic outlook for coming quarters remains unclear, as Tokyo and the western prefectures of Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo have been put under another virus emergency since Sunday following the unexpectedly fast spread of the virus, particularly its mutated, highly contagious strains.

Ideas:

Yes it seemed the the 3rd and 4th quarters like the Japanese economy was beginning to get back to some kind of normal or even new normal.

And the the other virus waves hit and back to square one like mentioned above and how the closings of some businesses can affect many other businesses in an economy.

It unclear just what is going to happen as the new virus strains appear to now be in Japan.

And of course the Japanese government and Tokyo is under a lot of pressure related to the Tokyo Olympics coming up in July.

Exports appear to being doing well, but again you never know exactly, as things can change very quickly during this continued pandemic period.

Article:

The current declaration is set to end on May 11, entailing measures such as requests for major commercial facilities to suspend operations. The latest steps are tougher than those under the second emergency but softer than the first one.

Shinke said the Japanese economy may possibly see another GDP shrinkage in the April to June period.

Ideas:

It remains to be seen as what is exactly going to happen.

Some businesses may actually have had no affect related to the pandemic situation while there are many businesses that have closed or are just surviving.

That is the complexity of an economy. Even in the worst of times, there are always some positives but also a lot more negatives.

There might actually be some businesses that have been created due to the pandemic and are doing very good.

But of course there might be just as many there are not doing so good.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan CPI:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210423/p2g/00m/0bu/050000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's core consumer prices dipped 0.1 percent in March from a year ago with the pace of decline slowing further, providing relief to the Bank of Japan as it battles to stem coronavirus pandemic-induced price falls, government data showed Friday.

The nationwide core consumer price index, excluding volatile fresh food items, marked the eighth straight month of decline, dragged down by lower energy prices, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. In February, the core CPI was down 0.4 percent.

The pace of decline slowed in March due partly to a rise in prices of household appliances such as air conditioners and air purifiers as demand increased due to people spending more time at home during the pandemic.

Ideas:

Most likely the Japanese CPI will continue to decline throughout the pandemic as consumer are worried about jobs and the future.

But at the same time, maybe the Bank of Japan shouldn't be too concerned with the drop in prices as long as it not too much.

By that I mean, as long as the pandemic continues and some sectors such as services sector is struggling, and people are worried about jobs, most likely consumers are not going to spend like before the pandemic, and the Bank of Japan should focus on helping businesses survive instead of being too concerned with 0.1 drop in the CP.

People and businesses are more important than an index measurement.

Article:

In fiscal 2020 through March, the core CPI dropped 0.4 percent, the sharpest decline in a decade, as the pandemic sent crude oil prices lower and the government's domestic tourism subsidy program brought about significant cuts in accommodation fees.

The figure marked the first fall in four years, according to the ministry data. The BOJ had projected a core CPI decline of 0.5 percent for fiscal 2020, far from its 2 percent inflation target.

"Movements of crude oil prices sway the CPI, but other than that the underlying factor that prices are not on an upward trend remains the same," said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute.

Ideas:

The core CPI or any index needs to be taken with a grain of salt, meaning try not to read too much into a decrease or an increase as there are always many factors involved.

Such as the domestic tourism subsidy. It was meant as a stimulus strategy to help domestic tourism and to help tourism businesses such as hotels.

But the say the subsidy program affected the CPI might not be a good description, as the subsidy program, while lowering prices for tourists and consumers, should have compensated hotels for the decrease in prices. 

So overall, there should not have been no real affect on CPI.

But of course CPI was affected by many factors related to the pandemic especially the decrease in consumer spending as some estimates say up to 50 percent of Japan's GDP is related to consumer spending.

When you have a significant enough of the population not spending and or reducing their spending it can have an affect on overall prices and the CPI.

But what has not been talked about is how much online spending has there been and has it had any real affect on CPI.

Crude oil is a tricky area. There are both positives and negatives to any increase in prices.

While suppliers might like a increase in prices to charge consumers, consumers of course prefer lower prices.

And then there the businesses who might use or need oil for their businesses. They might like lower prices, but those who sell oil would of course prefer higher prices to sell to consumers.

Article:

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has brushed aside the possibility that Japan will return to deflation, pointing out that downward pressure on the CPI came largely from special factors including the "Go To Travel" subsidy program.

Still, accelerating inflation is a difficult task for the BOJ, which tweaked its monetary policy in March to prepare for protracted easing.

In March, a 4.8 percent fall in electricity, gas and water bills weighed heavily on the overall CPI, tracking weak crude oil prices with a delay. Electricity bills dropped 7.1 percent while city gas slumped 8.5 percent.

Kerosene prices were down 4.2 percent.

Ideas:

Deflation has been a challenge for the Japanese economy going on 20 plus years.

And again I don't think you can blame the travel subsidy program as it was supposed to supplement hotels and other places related to lower prices for consumers.

The Bank of Japan has maintained a negative interest rate strategy for a long time. Its both a positive and a negatives depending on which side in the economy you are on.

For some banks it might be a negative but for businesses and consumers it might be a positive.

Again lower electricity, gas, and water bills would be a positive for consumers, who have to pay less but of course maybe not a positive for suppliers who would get less.

Perhaps commodity prices should be part of the CPI because of its positive and negative nature.

But if there is no regulation, and its just let the market decide, meaning whatever the market can bear, than maybe leave in it the CPI.

Companies can charge what feel the market can handle and consumers will only try to use what they can afford. 

It that way the market is always in a negotiating position.

Article:

But gasoline prices turned positive for the first time in a year, up 0.9 percent, as crude oil prices have been rising on hopes for global economic recovery as vaccinations against COVID-19 progress.

Accommodation fees were flat from a year ago following sharp year-on-year falls in recent months. A ministry official said some recovery was seen in travel demand after the lifting of a state of emergency over the pandemic for urban areas such as Osaka and Fukuoka on March 1.

In fiscal 2020, accommodation fees tumbled 16.9 percent and kerosene prices plunged 12.6 percent. Among other major decliners, fees for private kindergartens dived 88.5 percent in response to the government's move to make preschool education free, the data showed.

Ideas:

In most situations prices in a market economy are usually always subject to demand and supply factors.

As the global economy began to pick up and vaccinations began to increase perhaps consumer sentiment also improved as the state of emergency was lifted.

Gasoline prices, like most things are related to market factors and or supply cost factors.

As supplier prices increase, sometimes they have no choice to to pass on their costs to the buyers or consumers.

And or if they see an uptick in demand and or an uptick in the overall economy, suppliers will begin to increase prices.

The accommodation industry suffered a two pronged attack; from domestic tourists and then from international tourists. 

Of course the domestic industry will come back much sooner and it might take years before the international tourism segment returns to the pre-pandemic level.

Even the Olympics is not going to help the Japanese tourism industry that much as most if not all the people coming to Japan for the Olympics are not actual tourists, and as the pandemic and the variants are still a problem, even those who do come, such as the officials and the athletes are not going to be allowed any kind of tourism activities.

Article:

The price outlook remains uncertain as a resurgence in coronavirus cases has led to a government plan to impose yet another state of emergency for populous areas with the rescheduled Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics approaching this summer.

Major mobile operators in Japan started to offer lower data usage fees in March, taking heed of strong pressure from the administration of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.

The ministry official said the government is paying close attention to the impact of the fee cuts on the CPI that will start to appear in April data.

Ideas:

Back to the idea of the CPI. Again the CPI should be taken with a grain of salt, meaning there are always positives and negatives in an economy and as such an index number should not be a major guiding factor related to what should be done to an increase in overall prices or even a decrease in overall price.

The government wants to have lower fees for consumers from mobile operators. That should be a good thing for consumers who pay too much in Japan for their phone usage.

While it might be not a good thing, at first for mobile operators, they have maybe lived too long on charging consumers high prices and haven't learned to become more efficient or even effective at charging lower prices.

So the mobile operators now have to find ways, if they haven't already, to learn how to be more efficient with the lower prices called for by the government to help consumers.

Perhaps the Bank of Japan has relied too much on the CPI as a monitor of prices in the economy.

Article:

"The fee cuts are expected to drag down the CPI by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point," Meiji Yasuda's Kodama said. "Price-cutting is unlikely to spread to other sectors so deflation is not in the offing."

So-called core-core consumer prices, excluding fresh food and energy items, rose 0.3 percent in March from a year earlier, up for the third straight month.

Ideas:

Its highly unlikely that the average consumer or even the average business really cares that much about changes in the CPI like the Bank of Japan does.

The average consumer only cares about what he/she can afford to buy and what the prices are. 

They don't look at or care about the CPI.

The same with businesses. They only care about will they business grow, will it survive, do we have customers, are we charging the correct prices for the business to grow and or survive, and are our customers happy.

The BOJ might like to see the CPI changes every month but the average consumer or business doesn't pay attention to it.

So a decrease in the CPI because of government suggested changes in the mobile operator fees should not be that significant.

The BOJ and others focus too much on things that really don't matter.

People's daily lives are important right now as is the survival of businesses during the continued pandemic.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Bank of Japan: Inflation Target

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210422/p2a/00m/0bu/024000c

Article:

TOKYO -- The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to present an inflation forecast of around 1% for fiscal 2023 at monetary policy meetings to be held on April 26 and 27, which will result in its failure to achieve a 2% inflation target during BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda's term, which ends April 8, 2023, even after efforts lasting 10 years.

The BOJ discloses inflation forecasts for the next three years in quarterly reports titled "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices." In the report to be presented at the April meetings, the central bank analyzed that forces pushing price levels up have weakened due to the economic downturn amid the coronavirus pandemic. Among BOJ officials, there is a prevailing view that "a major increase in prices is difficult to achieve."

Ideas:

The Bank of Japan should not be too concerned at this present with inflation or with the 2 percent inflation target.

The main goal of the Bank of Japan should be to continue to help small and medium sized businesses to get through the pandemic.

Inflation has been a major challenge recently and may continue to be a challenge.

Perhaps a 2 percent target, while the goal of most central banks globally, might not be the best goal for the Bank of Japan.

As the Japanese economy has been a relatively stable economy for a very long time, perhaps the idea of focusing on increasing inflation is not the goal. Perhaps the goal should be focusing on increasing demand in the economy, where a larger and larger part of the population is ageing too fast.

Article:

BOJ Gov. Kuroda announced the 2% inflation goal in April 2013 -- shortly after his appointment as the central bank's chief -- as a target to be attained in around two years, and introduced a powerful monetary easing policy of purchasing massive quantities of government bonds to increase money supply in circulation. While the consumer price index hike (excluding fresh produce) rose temporarily to 1.4%, the figure has since been 1% or less for a majority of the time. Following the spread of the coronavirus, negative figures have been recorded for the consumer price index.

During the BOJ's reviews of financial policies carried out in March 2021, it analyzed that "it will take time to shift the views and habits of the public that act based on the assumption that prices won't rise, which has become ingrained due to a long period of deflation. "

In a press conference in March, Gov. Kuroda said, "I'd like to continue persistently with this powerful monetary easing policy, and achieve the 2% target."

Ideas:

An increase in the money supply, in theory, sounds like a good strategy for Japan. The problem with that is, some potential borrowers might take that money instead of using it in the economy, to increase demand, which might increase price, they would take the money as just save it. 

So maybe there need to be a way for banks to ask, and they most likely do, what will be money be used for.

Of course the borrower can always change their mind later.

But the goal of getting the inflation rate to 2 percent has been a strategy now for about 7 or 8 years and it hasn't been achieved yet, despite the negative interest rate strategies.

Again maybe for Japan, because of the dynamics of the aged population, the 2 percent goal is not the right goal for Japan.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Convenience Store Sales:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210421/p2g/00m/0bu/017000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Convenience store sales in Japan rose by 1.9 percent in March from a year earlier for the first increase in 13 months, lifted by demand for food items as people continued to stay or work at home due to the coronavirus pandemic, an industry body said Tuesday.

Same-store sales of seven major convenience store operators totaled 861.7 billion yen ($7.9 billion), supported by solid demand for prepared food, frozen food, dessert and alcoholic beverages, according to the Japan Franchise Association.

Ideas:

A year earlier maybe many people were a little afraid to even go to convenience stores as the pandemic was just beginning.

But at the same time, the decrease last year was related to workers who beginning to work from home and weren't going to the convenience stores near their workplaces.

And now as people continue to work from home the convenience store is an quick and easy place to pick up some to eat at home instead of heading to a grocery store/supermarket and especially if it in a crowded place like Sogo department store at Yokohama station.

Article:

Despite the number of shoppers declining 3.5 percent to 1.3 billion for the 13th consecutive month of fall, the average spending per person rose 5.6 percent to 684.20 yen.

Average spending grew for the 18 straight month as customers continued to buy frozen meals in bulk while alcohol sales increased with more people drinking at home, the association said.

Ideas:

The decline in the number of shoppers can be attributed to workers who are going to the convenience stores near their work places as they are now working from home.

And the average spending increase can also be attributed to the idea that workers are most likely buying more from the convenience stores that are near to where they live.

And they are probably not visiting regular supermarkets as much because of the potential for supermarkets to be too crowded and people want to remain safe.

Article:

Customer visits fell especially in the Tokyo metropolitan area, where a second state of emergency was issued in January and extended to March 21 beyond the original deadline in early February.

The number of convenience stores including newly opened outlets totaled 55,828, up 0.2 percent from a year earlier, the association said.

Ideas:

The decline in customer visits again might be workers were/are not visiting the convenience stores near they work, as they are now working from home.

Most likely to open a convenience store might fall under the idea easy to enter the market and easy to exit the market as its a characteristic of a competitive market.

And at the same time a convenience store business or franchise might be something that some people might feel they need to do in order to stay working.

Especially if they were, for instances, in the services or even the tourism industry and they had to close their business.

Or even if some was forced to retire but the don't want to stop working or can't afford to stop working.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Jobs in Fiscal 2022:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210419/p2g/00m/0bu/035000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Some 22 percent of major companies in Japan are planning to cut new hires for the business year starting next April from the current year, a Kyodo News survey showed Sunday, indicating many firms remain cautious about the outlook amid the coronavirus pandemic.

In the survey covering 110 firms, many of those planning to curb new hires were in sectors hit hard by the pandemic such as transport and tourism, which saw demand evaporate.

Helped by a recovery in the U.S. and Chinese economies, manufacturers, meanwhile, expect to hire more new graduates, citing business expansion plans.

Ideas:

The pandemic is on going and its not a surprise that many of the companies hard hit by the pandemic are going to reduce their hiring.

ANA and JAL earlier in year already announced that they were going to reduce their hiring.

It would not be a surprise if many hotels decided not to hire or even reduce hiring because of the ongoing pandemic situation.

And then there are all of the restaurants that have been affected by the pandemic situation. While some or many may be small restaurant operations, most likely many of the chain restaurants are probably also going to reduce their hiring for this year.

Article:

Major Japanese companies recruit new graduates at the start of each fiscal year, often beginning the hiring process roughly a year in advance.

According to the Kyodo survey, a total of 24 firms in sectors ranging from materials to energy are scaling back hiring for fiscal 2022. Thirty-seven firms, or 34 percent, said they will maintain the same levels as fiscal 2021.

Only 19 companies, or 17 percent, are seeking to increase new hires and 25, or 23 percent, are undecided.

Some of the firms making no change to their plans for fiscal 2022 drastically cut new hires for fiscal 2021 through next March.

For fiscal 2021, about 46 percent reduced new hires from the previous year while 12 percent increased hiring. Some 37 percent stuck to levels close to hiring for fiscal 2020, the survey showed.

Ideas:

All companies and all sectors do not grow exactly the same and or course they all have different levels of profit or less profit.

As not all companies hire the same amount of workers each year.

But it would be a good idea, or maybe should a good idea to adopt a policy or year round hiring.

The idea of companies only hiring once a year, in April, seems to be an outdate industrial policy not exactly appropriate for the 21st century or even the new digital revolution age.

Companies need to learn to be more flexible in their hiring practices and not just rely on tradition and what was done in the past.

Article:

Kyodo News carried out the survey between early March and mid-April. The 110 respondents include Toyota Motor Corp., Nissan Motor Co., Sony Group Corp., Japan Airlines Co., Nintendo Co., and Mizuho Financial Group Inc.

Despite the country's economy emerging from the initial shock of the COVID-19 crisis, economists say it remains on shaky ground, pointing to a divergence between manufacturers and services providers in the pace of recovery.

The pandemic has changed how companies look for promising graduates. All but three companies in the Kyodo survey said they will hold job fairs or conduct interviews online and 52 percent are planning to use online tools actively even after the health crisis ends.

Ideas:

Companies need to find different ways to hire new graduates, along with online interviews, online Zoom or Microsoft Teams job fairs.

Today's graduates are very tech savvy and as such, and with the pandemic situation, companies need to be flexible in how they hire new workers.

New company workers these days are not the company team players of the past. They want challenges, they want career advancement, without having to wait for a long time to move up the ladder of a company.

New company workers, if they have a chance, are more than willing to change jobs, it it meets their needs.

Companies, especially the traditional companies, need to be aware that workers today are not the same workers of even 20 years ago.

And yes, while the manufacturing industry is heading in the right direction, the services sector is a long way from being any where healthy.

Because the services sector is the most varied sector, involving many different kinds of businesses they have been hit the hardest and the services sector, even 2021 might not get back to pre-pandemic levels.

Article:

The COVID-19 outbreak has also brought changes to Japan's rigid corporate culture by enabling more flexible workstyles.

A total of 69 percent of the firms said they will either maintain or expand remote work even after the pandemic subsides.

Asked what challenges teleworking poses, 83 percent pointed to a lack of communication among workers while 61 percent referred to a negative impact on training employees.

However, when asked about the impact on labor productivity, 55 percent picked "no change," while a combined 31 percent said productivity had improved.

Ideas:

Its a good idea that Japanese companies begin to become more flexible in their rigid corporate work culture.

Japanese workers read and see how companies globally are being more flexible in their work cultures and Japanese workers want the same

The idea of a being in an office from 9 to 6 or 7 etc. five days a week might become a thing of the past. 

The pandemic basically has opened the eyes of workers globally that they can still be productive without having to sit a a desk five days a week.

And some companies, in Japan and globally are beginning to see the same thing.

The work culture of the 20 century is gone and dead. Those companies that don't adapt and change are going to remain rigid 20th century companies and not be able to compete in the 21st century.

Yes there are challenges to moving to a more flexible company such as training and communication. Most companies might be able to provide a more flexible work style.

Some days in the office and some days from home instead of only working from home or only working in the office.

It might provide a more positive work life balance which can benefit the company, the worker, and benefit society and the economy.

Article:

"We'd like to help our employees improve the balance between their work and private lives," an energy company said. A firm in the services industry said, "There are types of jobs that are not suitable for teleworking so we need to see whether it is appropriate."

A combined 81 percent already allow or will consider allowing employees to take side jobs.

Forty-two percent already had such a system in place before the pandemic and 7 percent introduced it after the COVID-19 crisis.

Taking side jobs is seen as beneficial for longer-term career development but some companies are cautious because employees could end up working excessively long hours or get jobs at competitors.

Ideas:

Yes there are jobs that are not compatible with teleworking. But companies can still find ways to provide a better work life balance, as much as possible.

Most likely not all companies that have its employees working from home, just like maybe there some companies that can have most of its workers working from home.

But probably a more realistic approach for most companies is a 2 or 3 days in the office or 2 or 3 days working at home.

Companies will need to experiment and see what is best for them and their workers. A happier worker will usually be a more productive worker.

And the idea that a worker is only a part of one company is 20th century thinking. Workers today want to be able to do many different things.

The skills of workers today are such that they can easily free-lance, take on projects outside of their main company along with doing many other things.

Again the day of workers only loyal to one company, even in Japan is the past, its 20th century thinking and doesn't benefit the 21st century worker.

Have a nice day and be safe!

Japan Exports:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210419/p2g/00m/0bu/033000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's exports in March grew 16.1 percent from a year earlier, the largest gain in over three years, as the pace of recovery from the initial impact of the coronavirus pandemic picked up on brisk material shipments to China, government data showed Monday.

Exports stood at 7.38 trillion yen ($68 billion), with its year-on-year expansion marking the biggest increase since a 16.2 percent jump in November 2017, the Finance Ministry said in a preliminary report. They declined 4.5 percent in February.

Ideas:

Export growth is always good, but we have to remember that some of the growth might be related to what was missed in the previous year, especially as China had shutdown by March 2020 and normal business activity was shutdown in many of the industries including manufacturing companies that rely on Japanese intermediate products.

But that doesn't explain it all when it was be biggest increase since 2017, which is very good.

Article:

Rising from 6.36 trillion yen a year ago when the virus outbreak began to dampen global demand for cars and other Japan-made products, the latest monthly exports figure surpassed a pre-pandemic level of 7.20 trillion yen seen in March 2019 in terms of value.

By country, exports to China stood at 1.63 trillion yen to hit the highest-ever level since comparable data became available in January 1979, underpinned by strong demand for plastic and raw materials such as copper.

Ideas:

Export growth is always good and needed. But at the same time, exports are only part of the economy, of an economy. While export growth is important, it has to be remembered that some of parts of the economy are not doing so good.

For example, while exports are growing, the services part of the economy might not be growing.

But export growth, in itself is not enough in Japan, to carry the economy to solid growth.

For example, consumer spending is around 50 percent of GPD, so if consumer is down or not even near its potential, it is doubtful that an increase in exports can have an impact overall on GPD growth.

Article: 

Imports rose 5.7 percent to 6.71 trillion yen, up for the second straight month, which led the country to see a goods trade surplus of 663.72 billion yen, the second consecutive month of black ink.

As for fiscal 2020 through March, Japan's exports sank 8.4 percent from the previous year to 69.49 trillion yen due to repercussions from the pandemic, especially in the first six months.

They posted the sharpest decline since a 17.1 percent drop logged in fiscal 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Ideas:

An increase in import might be related to an increase in consumer or supplier demand. In the case of supplier demand, preparing for the future when consumer demand begins to improve.

And or an improvement overall in logistics, meaning shipping, air and ship cargo, has gotten back to normal, and normal shipments are making it easier for suppliers to order and receive what they need.

A decrease of 8.4 percent is a big loss for Japanese exporters, but it looks like demand for Japanese products, both merchandise and intermediate products as more than made up for the losses in fiscal 2020.

Article: 

Imports in the previous business year sank 11.6 percent to 68.18 trillion yen, also the steepest fall in 11 years, mainly because of declining crude oil and other energy prices.

Both exports and imports shrank for the second successive year, which left Japan with a goods trade surplus of 1.31 trillion yen, the first black ink in three years.

All figures were compiled on a customs-cleared basis.

Ideas:

A decrease in imports again could have been related to less demand from consumers and because of that less demand from suppliers.

And then of course some of it might have been related to the disruption in supply chains related to the disruptions of shipments globally in the spring of 2020.

A trade surplus is always preferable to a trade deficit. In smaller geographic countries such as Japan and South Korea, trade surpluses are needed and important.

The US however is a trade deficit country as it imports are always more than its exports. 

Of course as the world's # 1 or # 2 economy, and size of the population and its geographic size it has a huge consumer spending base. As a result, it can afford to be a trade deficit nation, compare to smaller geographic countries including the Northern European countries which are trade surplus based economies.

Have a nice day and be safe!