Japan Exports:

 https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201118/p2g/00m/0bu/044000c    

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's exports in October bounced back to just below the levels seen before the novel coronavirus pandemic, as global demand for products such as cars has risen in line with a gradual recovery in business activities, government data showed Wednesday.

Exports edged down 0.2 percent from a year earlier to 6.57 trillion yen ($63 billion), with auto shipments to the United States and China showing a significant increase while those of diesel oil and cargo ships remained sluggish, the Finance Ministry said in a preliminary report.

The declining pace of exports slowed from 4.9 percent in September.

Ideas and Commentary:

Its always good to see exports in Japan bounce back to pre-pandemic levels but at the same time, as in many countries the recovery is going to be very uneven, especially since the pandemic in all countries, except maybe China has come back even stronger.

A gradual recovery is good term to use now as no country at moment is going to see a sudden big recovery. The recovery good take a turn for the worse and business activity might actually decrease as we seem to be in a 2nd or even 3rd wave of the pandemic now.

But any recovery is good if can be sustained over time.

Article:

Meanwhile, exports shrank for the 23rd consecutive month since December 2018, tying the longest streak of monthly on-year falls set in July 1987 when the country was facing fierce trade friction with the United States amid Japan's rise as an economic power.

Imports decreased 13.3 percent to 5.69 trillion yen, down for the 18th straight month, mainly on the falling price of crude oil purchased from the United Arab Emirates and other countries. But the decline was smaller than the 17.4 percent drop in the previous month.

The goods trade surplus stood at 872.90 billion yen in the reporting month, securing black ink for the fourth month in a row, and up from the 687.84 billion yen recorded in September.

Ideas and Commentary:

Economic and business articles have to be very careful with what they say. For example "Japan's exports in October bounced back" and then "exports shrank for the 23rd consecutive month" seem to be contradictory terms of statements. 

But both statement are correct. Japan's exports bounced back means they were able to get near the pre-pandemic levels but then those pre-pandemic levels were already is somewhat of a free fall the last 23 months. So the statements are not contradictory but readers have to think carefully about what they see.

Global trade has take a big hit due to the pandemic as logistics systems globally are not able to meet the demand for products. But at the same time whenever there are challenges, companies find ways to change and innovate to stay in business. So logistics companies are finding new ways to do business and survive. 

Global trade is heavily dependent on logistics companies, whether large container style ships, companies just DHL, UPS, Federal Express and the overall airline industry. But all of the companies that are involved in global trade, in one way or another depend on people, workers and the pandemic also affect workers in all industries. 

The ideas the Japan was/is able to stay in the black, meaning more exports going out than imports coming in, not including the oil situations means Japanese companies and Japan logistics companies have been able to innovate and keep business as usual or maybe a better term, a "new normal" in the pandemic situation.

Article:

By product, exports of cars grew 3.0 percent, turning positive from a 0.5 percent decrease in September to post their first rise since July 2019. Those of auto parts also climbed 4.0 percent, following a 7.7 percent fall the previous month.

By country, exports to China expanded 10.2 percent to 1.46 trillion yen, while imports fell 3.7 percent to 1.54 trillion yen. Exports to the United States increased 2.5 percent to 1.30 trillion yen, with imports shrinking 15.6 percent to 600.76 billion yen.

Increased exports to these countries, which are Japan's two largest trading partners, could not make up for sharp drops in shipments to other areas, causing overall exports to decline, a ministry official said. Exports to the Middle East tumbled 30.3 percent and those to South and Central America sagged 26.2 percent.

Ideas Commentary:

Its not a surprise that exports to China, for whatever reason, seems to have come somewhat out of the pandemic better than many other countries, and as such business activity and consumer spending has increased at the same time. Whether the momentum can be sustained is another question which remains to be seen as the virus seems to have taken a 2nd and 3rd wave recently

The situation with the US is much more complex as the virus situation has not slowed down but maybe some economic activity is increasing despite the increased virus situation there. 

But like the articles say, decreases in other areas are causing real concerns and an increase of exports to China can't make up for losses in other areas. 

Again it remains to be seen if Japan's exports can sustain what little gains its achieved recently even if they are not a pre-pandemic levels. 

But most likely companies are not thinking of reaching pre-pandemic levels yet, but thinking in line with trying to minimize or reduce downward trend and hold on until there are vaccines and more global economic activity and increase.

But of course that is easy to say for major exporters but what about small and mediums sized exporters who might not have any "rainy day" back up funds to sustain them a year or more?

Article: 

Japan's exports posted a double-digit fall between March and August due to the pandemic, and concerns are growing that recent virus resurgences in Europe and the United States could deal a fresh blow.

Exports to Asia as a whole rose 4.4 percent to 3.69 trillion yen and imports slipped 6.9 percent to 3.01 trillion yen.

With the European Union, exports were down 2.6 percent at 599.23 billion yen and imports dropped 11.4 percent to 638.85 billion yen.

Ideas and Commentary:

Yes a recent surge in the virus situation might begin to affect exports to the US and the EU.

However, exports to Asia have continued to rebound and with the news of the RECP, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership free trade agreement among 15 Asia Pacific countries, potentially could offset any immediate or temporary losses in the US and the EU.

It might take some time to see the overall benefits of the new RECP agreement but potentially it could open news markets in the Asia Pacific region for Japan and of course other countries in the region.

Article:

"The latest outcome shows that Japan's exports are picking up vigorously, reflecting that the global economy is moving toward its normal state faster than expected," said Takeshi Okuwaki, an economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

Okuwaki said the virus resurgence in Europe "won't inflict great damage" on Japan's trade, given that the country's exports to the area account for only about 10 percent of the total.

However, he said large-scale economic restrictions in the United States could have a serious impact.

Exports played a key role in boosting the world's third-largest economy to grow an annualized real 21.4 percent in the July-September period from the previous quarter, the biggest expansion in 40 years, after it shrank 28.8 percent in the April-June term due to the government's state of emergency declaration over the virus in April.

All figures were compiled on a customs-cleared basis.

Ideas and Commentary:

If taken at face value that "the global economy is moving toward its normal state faster than expected", that would of course be good news, but to be fair and honest, especially the last two weeks, the pandemics seems to have come even stronger, so I don't see global trade or the global economy coming back strong just yet.

I do see the Asia Pacific region coming back but just how strong remains to be seen.

But not to be negative if the data and figures above are true that is very good news for Japan.

But the real problem for Japan is not exports, and any increase in exports is good, but what about the "real economy" meaning small companies, medium sized companies, and overall jobs in the Japanese economy.

 There are actually two Japanese economies. There is the big company and exports economy, an maybe include the stock market and then is the other economy. The small businesses, medium sized businesses and overall jobs in the economy. 

While exports and most likely many large companies have ways to survive and sustain themselves there are many small companies and medium sized companies who are unable to sustain themselves through this pandemic.

And then there is the idea of overall jobs in the Japanese economy. While Japan seems to have been able to survive better than many places there are of course those who might even have lost their jobs in the pandemic.

So while export growth is always good even very good, what about the big picture of the rest of the economy and people's real lives?