Japan Jobless Rate: Updated Feb. 1, 2025.

Japan's jobless rate in 2024 falls to 2.5% amid labor shortage

Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250131/p2g/00m/0bu/020000c

Ideas:

Japan has one of the lowest employment rates among OECD economies, but it must be remembered that maybe not all jobs might be good name-brand large Japanese company jobs.

Some jobs might be contract jobs and or part-time jobs which don't provide good salaries and or good benefits.

During the pandemic most likely many service type companies in Japan had to lay-off a lot of workers and maybe those workers have moved on to other jobs and or maybe some might have been rehired with the same companies.

That means there are 125 jobs available for every 100 jobs candidates. And again, its quite possible that maybe not all of the 125 jobs available are with large companies as maybe some might be small company job offers or even midsize job offers with don't pay as much as what large Japanese companies pay.

It must be remembered that no economy has 100 percent full employment as there are always going to be workers in between jobs and or those who just don't work.

Japan like most advanced economies has different levels of employment such as the name-brand large Japanese company jobs, other large company jobs, midsize company jobs, small company jobs.

And then are are the contract type jobs and many companies that don't give good wages and or good benefits and or course the usual part-time jobs which are usually service type jobs.

If all of the 340,000 jobs are full-time large company jobs that would be good as they pay the highest wages in Japan like in most advanced economies but an economy is not just made of large company jobs.

For example in Japan, 70 percent of the Japanese workforce works in small and midsize companies which unfortunately don't pay the best wages and its natural as small and midsize companies just don't have the resources to pay the same as large companies.

Because of the constant inflation in Japan maybe more women are looking for work and maybe the 20,000 of unemployed workers might have have been married women looking for a job to help their families.

And again, those in the non-labor force declined by 530,00 indicates that maybe because of the constant inflation in Japan married women with children started working to help their families.

In Japan its quite common for women to quit their jobs once they get married to take care of their families and once the children are old enough, the women will go back to work.

Whats good about this situation is as more people enter the workforce in Japan it might mean more spending in the Japanese economy, which needs more consumer spending to help grow the economy.

Most likely, as there is a labor shortage in Japan companies might be reluctant to layoff workers as it might be hard to get new workers, especially if a company can't afford to pay the best salaries in their sector.

And the fact that 750,000 workers left their jobs, means they might be thinking there are many jobs available out there and it might easier now to quit job and get a new job much quicker than usual, as sometimes changing jobs is not easy in Japan.

And yes,  if the Japanese worker was laid-off, for whatever reason, because there is a labor shortage it's much easier now, maybe easier than anytime the past few decades in Japan.

For whatever reason, the jobs availability rate is much lower than usual in Japan, which means there are only 1.25 jobs for every 100 workers in Japan.

If all of the jobs available are good jobs with good wages than that's good, but if they are jobs that don't pay so good, due to limited resources of the companies, then that is not good for the companies and or for those looking for a better job or a good job.

But again, at 2.4 percent Japan is in a good position as maybe the more people are that are employed and working could mean more spending in the Japanese economy, which of course might mean more economic growth.

The information and communication sector might be the fastest growing sector not only in Japan but globally as data analysis, AI technologies and chip semiconductors might be increasing everywhere around the world.

And as there are record numbers of foreign tourists now entering Japan hotels and restaurants need to hire more workers to meet the increased demand at hotel and restaurants.

But the decrease of 8.6 percent in the lifestyle and entertainment sector might be because of the constant inflation in Japan as Japanese households are cutting back on spending.

At the same time time maybe the change in entertainment habits might be changing as its quite possible less consumers going to movie theaters but instead watching movies are the Internet as going to a more theater these days is very expensive.

Have a nice day!

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Japan Economic View: Updated Jan. 31, 2025

Japan retains economic view in Jan., optimistic on business climate

 Article Source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250123/p2g/00m/0bu/053000c 

Ideas:

Overall, the Japanese government doesn't want to sound too optimistic or sound too pessimistic and it doesn't want to upset the financial markets or cause harm to businesses. 

So it always uses the phrase recovering moderately but uses pausing as a way to say its improving but not completely.

If the Japanese government or any government said what it really thinks the financial markets could react in a not so good way or even businesses would not invest in the economy,

As an example, corporate bankruptcies, unfortunately, are increasing in Japan, and if the Japanese government said what it really thinks the Japanese economy and the mood of the country could be in a not so good situation.

So it uses, again, almost flat, which is a polite way to say they are there but don't want to say just how bad it is.

However, its quite possible, that the Japanese economy has reached its lowest level and just possible its beginning to come back slowly after being stagnant for a very long time.

Many governments tried to help businesses hit hard by the pandemic and its sad that there might be some or many that are having challenges repaying the loans that governments provided them.

Hopefully, the Japanese government tried to help those businesses that had challenges since the pandemic with whatever they needed to keep going.

But at the same time, in a market economy, unfortunately there are always going to be business and succeed and those that don't do so good.

The global economy is always picking up and always showing signs of pausing as the global economy is like a microcosm of an economy made up of many different sectors and not all sectors are going be growing at the same time as some sectors might be deceasing or pausing at the same time.

For example the US is the envy of the rest of the world at the present time, while the EU might still might be in a stagnant phase as Germany is not doing good at this time.

 While China seems to be moving in the right direction with  GDP growth of 5 percent for 2024.

Have a nice day!

Japan Real Wages: Updated Jan. 29, 2025.

Japan's real wages in Nov. revised up, log 1st rise in 4 months

  Article Source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250124/p2g/00m/0bu/009000c 

Ideas:

A real wage increase has to do with a decrease in inflation meaning Japanese households had a slight increase in purchasing power.

At the same time, its quite possible the twice-yearly bonus in December might have helped more than a decrease in inflation.

Japanese companies might has had some good profits and or felt they needed to increase bonuses as a way to keep their current employees, and there is a labor shortage in Japan at the present time, which means companies are looking for workers and workers know they have more than one choice for a different job.

Again, as there is a labor shortage it's possible some companies might have given the winter bonus in November instead of December as a way to improve company/employee relations.

It might not have been a company-wide plan but it just happened that companies decided to give their winter bonuses in December instead of November.

As winter bonuses were larger than normal its possible some companies are worried that if they don't increase bonuses they might begin to lose employees to other companies, as employees have many choices if they want a different job.

Inflation has been consistent in Japan since the pandemic and real wages have not kept up with inflation meaning purchasing power of Japanese households have been less than normal since the pandemic.

As shown sometimes inflation does slow down to the point that real wages gain some momentum, but as seen its only had some momentum for two months out of 28 total months, which means the purchasing power of Japanese household has been less than needed.

Real wages are wages adjusted for inflation while nominal wages are wages that includes inflation with means they inflation inflates wages for Japanese households.

Again nominal wages are not what is important for consumers or households as they might mask the real effects of what is happening in an economy.

As seen nominal wages exceeded the consumer price index used to calculate wages, which again, means Japanese household purchasing power lost strength for the reporting month.

And it also means that Japanese consumers probably cut-back again on spending on things except what is needed but not much more.

While a 2.5 percent increase in base pay and wages was good, it really doesn't help Japanese households that much, as inflation easily reduces the purchasing power of increased wages.

And the same with a increase of 1.4 percent in overtime pay and nonscheduled wages, are not that much, and again, inflation can easily reduce any gains made.

Overall, wages and bonuses might be improving for Japanese households but the key is going to be what is inflation going to do and then there is the chance of wage increases in April as the Japanese government is hoping wage increases will be more than in April of 2024, which  was 5+ percent.

Have a nice day!

Japan Core CPI: Updated Feb. 5, 2025.

Japan's core CPI up 3.0% in Dec. after end of gov't energy subsidies

Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250124/p2g/00m/0bu/004000c

Ideas:

Japan has been experiencing increases in its core consumer prices since the pandemic period and it doesn't seem to be decreasing much yet.

The Bank of Japan is hoping inflation will be 2.0 percent or less and at the same time it hopes consumer demand and consumer spending will be the main reason for inflation an not companies passing-on their increased costs to the next in the supply chain.

Government subsidies to combat inflation is good and needed but the Japanese government can't do everything as its debt is among the highest among OECD countries.

Most advanced countries use interest rates as a way to control or limit inflation but the Bank of Japan has only recently started using the rate again, after many year of not increasing the rate.

While 2.4 percent might not be much but for some income groups it can be a lot and they begin to look for substitutes if at all possible.

An increase in the key rate increase to 0.5 percent doesn't seem like much but it might be enough to slow inflation as maybe some businesses or households will not go to the bank to get loans as the rate interest rate might discourage them.

The CPI increase was driven by cost-push factors which means companies were passing-on their increased costs to the next in the supply chain including the final retail consumer.

Currently it appears the trend is going to continue but by how much, as it could decrease or it could increase depending on the weak Japanese yen, which increases import prices in Japan.

The Bank of Japan is looking for Japanese companies to increase wages again this year and if the wage increases are to the liking of the Bank of Japan it will most likely increase the key rate again in the future.

The Japanese yen is weak because of the variance between the US key rate and the Japanese key rate and maybe the EU rate too. 

As the Bank of Japan begins to increase its key rate and the US begins to lower its key rate the rates of both countries begin to get closer together which can improve the weak Japan yen to become stronger.

Japan is resource-poor country which means it has to import much of what it needs including its energy needs, which can often fluctuate and Japan is mostly helpless to do anything about global energy prices.

There has been talk that Japan is considering going back to using nuclear energy, which is less expensive but some might say more dangerous especially since the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster which caused the shutdown of many reactors in Japan.

Again, as Japan is a resource-poor country which means it has to import much of what it needs including many food products or food supplies such as wheat.

The summer rice shortage is something of a mystery as some blame the poor growing season for the supply shortage and some blame other reasons such as the distribution system for increase in rice prices stating last summer.

Weather can always cause prices to go up or down depending on the situation of a good growing season or a not so good growing season and even global situations related to the weather can affect food price going to Japan.

Many years ago Japanese companies were reluctant to pass-on their increased costs to the next in the supply chain and especially the final retail customer as they were afraid of losing customers.

But times have changed as many companies profit margins are just out of control and inflation related to increased food material costs and energy costs have just become too much for many companies to handle so now they have no choice but to pass-on their increased material and energy costs to the next in the supply chain and yes including the final retail customer.

The increase of durable good might be something that could be related to an increase in the cost of manufacturing the good as again material and energy costs have increased the costs of everything in Japan and globally.

Usually the services sectors has the lowest wages as many services companies might only pay minimum wage or something like that. 

But as there is a labor shortage in Japan now many service companies now have to increase wages as a way to get the best talent possible even if the wages are not the best.

The Bank of Japan is looking very carefully about what Japanese companies are going to do with wage increases as the BOJ is hoping the increases will be enough to help the economy and consumers will begin to spend again to the point that the economy will grow again.

Have a nice day!

Bank of Japan Increases Key Rate: Updated Feb. 7, 2025.

Bank of Japan lifts rate to 17-yr high of 0.5% with wage hike expectations

Article Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250124/p2g/00m/0bu/015000c

Commentary:

Whenever a central bank increases the key rate it also knows there are side affects like taking medicine which could have some side affects, and in this case might cause the economy to slow down some.

The two areas, as mentioned, that could be affected are consumer spending, consumption, and business investments as consumers don't want to pay for the key rate increase which comes with higher interest costs and also businesses don't want to pay for higher interest rates on loans from banks.

But an increase to 0.5 percent might not be that much of an increase to affects both areas, as maybe consumers and businesses might not even feel the affects of the rate increase.

Its important for central banks to monitor how the rate increase might affect consumer spending and business investments to see if there decreases in both areas due to consumers not liking the rate increase and businesses not liking the increase on loans.

If the rate increase is  positive and or doesn't cause any side affects that might be a sign for the BOJ to consider another rate hike in March or April.

Central banks often use rate hikes to try and decrease inflation but at the same time there side affects that can cause some real and significant challenges for an economy such as lower consumer spending and of course many businesses not borrowing money from banks due to the higher interest rate.

Projects while needed and important are for the most part just guesses as to what might happen in the future, sometimes projections are accurate and sometimes they are not so accurate due to many different scenarios taking place in an economy.

The increase in rice prices might be something that is not completely understood and this time, there are many factors still not sure about such st the growing season, the hot weather, the distribution system and the prices farmers want to get to stay profitable.

Rice in Japan is a cultural topic and there are large tariffs on foreign rice in Japan which makes it hard for foreign distributors of rice to break into the Japanese market.

And there is some bias among Japanese consumers related to their preference for Japanese rice compared to rice from Taiwan, Thailand, or even China or any other foreign rice that is sold in Japan.

Usually not all central bank members agree but it doesn't take all to pass whatever they are trying to pass.

Yes, maybe the period of the zero interest rates in Japan is finished and now the BOJ is going to act like other central banks and use the key interest rate to manage the economy again.

Corporate earnings are important and a key indicator of what is going on in the economy related to businesses in Japan, and especially the large companies in Japan.

Wage increases in Japan are just beginning to as for many years companies refrained from giving wage hikes or they were very small compared to now. 

But the Japanese government and the BOJ has both suggested wage hikes are very important to combat inflation and getting Japanese households to spend again despite the constant increase in inflation in Japan.

The challenge is going to be what are the small and midsize companies going to do compared to the large Japanese companies which are suggesting they are going to increase wages more than 5 percent in April.

The Japanese workforce don't all work for large companies as it been suggested that maybe 70 percent of the workforce works for small and midsize companies which can't match the wage hikes of large Japanese companies.

The current US administration has lot of plans but can they actually do what they want to do and some are popular and some are not so popular.

At the moment Mexico, Canada, and China are not so happy with what the US is going to do with the tariff situation, so its a day to day situation sometimes with the current US administration.

Financial markets react to everything that happens and sometimes the agree with increases in the markets and sometimes they disagree with decreases in the markets.

Yes, the US economy remains robust, as it's still the envy of the world, but things can always change related to new US policies and tariffs and so on.

And again, the financial markets are usually very quick to respond to what they like or don't like related to anything the US government does with new policies.

It's not a surprise that Japan's core consumer prices increased by government subsidies for utility bills decreased, and of course Japanese households are going to be unhappy about the Japanese government ending the subsidies.

All central banks, globally, want to see inflation around 2 percent as they feel it's a manageable level. Too high and an economy might considered out of control or overheating and below 1 percent and an economy might be stagnating with not a lot consumer spending in the economy and or not a lot money moving through the economy.

But since the pandemic Japan's inflation rate has remained above or even well above the 2 percent level which has caused Japanese consumers to decrease their spending which might have stunted Japan's economic growth.

And again, like most central banks the BOJ hopes if they increase they key rate it will have an affect on inflation and inflation will begin to decrease and get the the 2 percent or just lower than that in the future.

Yes, it seems to weak Japanese yen, is a major priority for the Bank of Japan as the variance between the US rate and the Japanese rate, as played havoc on the Japanese yen which makes it very weak and causes import prices to increase even more.

Japan is a resource poor country which means it has to import much of what it needs and the weak Japanese yen causes import prices to be even higher than normal which affects all Japanese households, which might cause some or many to decrease their consumer spending in the Japanese economy.

And again, the increase in the key rate has some side effects such as less consumer spending and less borrowing by companies related to business loans at banks.

When the banks increase loan interest rates, businesses decrease their borrowing and Japanese households might reduce their credit card spending as the rates on credit cards go up too, and or households don't take out loans needed for house repairs, car repairs, of even buying and new car.

The Japanese yen is weak but is both a positive and a negative for Japan. Its a negative related to import prices but its a positive for Japanese exporters and foreign tourists and tourists have more purchasing power in Japan.

It's also a positive for any businesses such as hotels, restaurants, tourist areas that cater to foreign tourists in Japan.

And finally, again, its seem the era of ultra-easy monetary policy is over in Japan as the BOJ is hinting its going to continue to increase rates as needed to help the Japanese economy.

It seems the BOJ is hinting that rate hike are going to happen in the future and maybe they are giving a signal to the financial markets about what to expect so that there are no surprises like what happened last July when the markets were caught off-guard.

Finally the Japanese economy has seen a lot of ups and downs recently and if the Japanese economy turns sour or if the wage increases are not what the BOJ wants to see there might not be a rate increases again this year. 

Have a nice day!

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Japan Convenience Stores and Tourists:Updated Jan. 28, 2025

 

Japan 2024 convenience stores sales at record high on inbound tourism

  Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250121/p2g/00m/0bu/002000c

Ideas:

Convenience stores in the US and Japan are very much different, and maybe in the EU too, as convenience stores in the US are almost non-existent compared to Japan convenience stores.

Also maybe because of the geographic nature of Japan being a densely populated country in a small geographic area, which makes it easier to have more convenience stores.

Many or most convenience stores in the US are maybe just gas stations with a few food or drink items, which have no real consumer appeal while in Japan the convenience stores are consumer magnets as they draw people into the stores, while in the US they might detract people from going into them.

Price increases might have contributed to the decrease but a decrease of 0.05 percent as it really wasn't that much, so that was not that much so price increases might not have been the contributing factor for the decrease.

It could have been just consumer choice as what consumers liked and didn't like at that time, and not so much an increase in prices.

Weather always plays a role in some consumers choices buying hot or cold drinks and at the same time maybe then novelty of Japanese convenience stores and curiosity might have been a factor in some increases.

As more visitors go to Japan and leave and then go back to their countries they might tell people, if you go to Japan go to a Japanese convenience store and see how good they are.

Again the decrease in monthly sales might have nothing to do with price increases but maybe related to consumer choice just as what consumers like or don't like

And then there is the idea that for Japanese consumers maybe they might have lost interest in going to convenience stores like consumer lose interest in many things over time.

Its quite possible that Japanese convenience stores need to innovate again and re-invent them selves if Japanese consumers are losing interest in them.

Have a nice day!

Japan Wage talks: Updated Jan. 27, 2025.

 

Japan annual wage talks begin amid high hopes for sustained pay hikes

Article source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250122/p2g/00m/0bu/029000c

Ideas:

Japan wages, unfortunately, are much less than other OECD countries, so there is a definite need for Japanese companies to increase the wages, despite increasing wages the past two years.

While large Japanese companies will most likely increase wages of 5 percent of more, the challenge is going to be small and midsize companies who probably don't have the profit margins or the resources needed to increase wages.

The Japanese government needs to find a way to help small and midsize companies increase wages, as again, small and midsize companies just don't have the resources to increase the wages.

A wage increase of 6 percent sounds good but will Japanese companies agree to increase wages that much and will there profit margins allow that much increase and most important will stockholders agree to a wage increase of that much if they are publicly traded company.

If large Japanese companies agree to a 6 percent increase can small Japanese companies be able to match what large companies do, when they haven't been able to match large company wages the past two years.

Yes, in a market economy private firms drive economic growth, but sometimes they need a little help or push from the government to get them there, for example small Japanese companies might need a little help.

What the head of Rengo said was correct but unfortunately wage increases in Osaka, Nagoya, and Tokyo might be doable but can small and mid sized companies in the regional economies in Japan be able to match what the large companies in the metro areas do.

If the Bank of Japan does increase the key rate, will it be enough to prevent prices from rising sharply.

The idea is as the key rate increases it will discourage some businesses or households from borrowing and or reduce spending enough to prevent price increases as demand will decrease just enough that keep prices low.

As large companies have increased wages the past two years will they have the appetite to increase wages for a third year. And will they increase wages above the 5.58 rate of last year.

And yes, small firms have not been able to pass-on their higher cost to consumers and probably the main reason might be that many small and midsize firms are suppliers of large companies who might not want to have their supply costs increased which might be a limiting factor for many small companies in Japan.

While large companies might be able to absorb a loss of customers due to price increases, small companies might not be able to absorb the loss of customers.

Have a nice day!

Foreign Visitors in Japan in 2024: Updated Feb. 13, 2025

Foreign visitors to Japan, their spending, hit record high in 2024

Article Source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250115/p2g/00m/0na/041000c

Commentary:

Japan needs tourists to spend as much as they can as domestic spending in Japan is never good enough to really help the economy grow.

The challenge is Japanese consumers just aren't the big spenders like western consumers are, as they are more savers than spenders.

Foreign tourists, for the most part is taxed like all transaction in Japan, except for those who take advantage of the 10 percent tax break, but the red-tape related to getting that 10 percent break on can be cumbersome at times.

The weak Japanese yen is a boom for foreign tourists as their purchasing power increases as the yen gets weaker.

The Bank of Japan notices that the weak yen is both a positive and negative for the Japanese economy, but as 34 million foreign tourists took advantage of the weak yen, it highly unlikely that the BOJ is going to do anything significant to make the yen stronger.

The negative part of the weak yen is it increases the price of imports to Japan as Japan is a relatively resource poor country and has to import much of what it needs, which means as the yen gets weaker import prices get higher.

I lived in South Korea for many years and before the pandemic getting relatively low price tickets was very easy, but since the pandemic ticket prices to Japan has doubled and almost tripled with all flight being full.

South Korean for a long time had some issues with Japan as their is some not so good history between the two countries, which for a long time limited the number of South Koreans going to Japan.

But as ticket prices, globally, have gone up significantly, the flight from Seoul South Korea to Tokyo Japan is only about 2 hours which makes for a short trip to take and even weekend trips are very common.

Chinese tourists used to be the largest foreign tour group to Japan, but flight between the two countries have not gone back to normal yet, as flight are still somewhat limited due to the pandemic hangover.

Hotel prices in Japan has increased significantly as I used to a twin for less than $100 dollars a night but those days are long gone in Japan as even singles are becoming very expensive or not cheap anymore.

Of course as with anything related to supply and demand as demand increases prices will naturally increase and with 34 million foreign tourists entering Japan, Japanese hotels are taking advantage of the situation and increasing hotel prices and at the same time maybe making up for all of the loses the endured during the pandemic.

Hotel accommodations are always going to be one of the largest expenses in Japan as you can limit other costs such as shopping and food.

Yes, foreign tourism in Japan has become an economic driver much like Japanese car exports which significantly helps economic growth in Japan.

The Bank of Japan is not going to do anything that might dampen the enthusiasm of foreign tourists going to Japan as the BOJ now understands that foreign tourists are a strong economic driver for the Japanese economy.

However, mostly in Kyoto, a very popular tourist destination in Japan, there is concern for over-tourism as there is now talk of taxing tourists to reduce the congestion and trash in the Kyoto area.

If the tourism tax becomes too much for tourists they might react negatively to the tax and not go to certain tourist areas so cities in Japan need to be very careful and try to find the right balance between protecting the community and taxing foreign tourists.

At the same time foreign tourists need to respect the the laws including Japanese society/culture and not do things that might cause Japanese people and society to get upset with foreign tourists who don't have any respect for Japanese culture or society.

It seems Japan is now trying to compete with Spain and France as the most popular tourist destination globally.

But Japan has Osaka and Tokyo might not be able to accommodate 60 million tourists and yes, Japan need to get foreign visitors to travel to other areas in Japan beside the two main metro areas.

Japan is in the middle of a significant labor shortage at this time and finding enough workers for hotels, restaurants, along major tourist areas is going to be challenging not to mention getting enough workers for small regional airports in Japan.

High-end travelers are always a goal of any country, but not all travelers are high-end as most are just normal people with normal incomes globally.

Hotels, restaurants, and other service sector and hospitality companies will need to significantly increase the wages they pay in Japan to attract the workers they need as Japanese workers now have a choice of many jobs,due to a labor shortage, and they are not going to take a minimal wage job that sometimes comes with hospitality work or service sector work.

Have a nice day!

BOJ to Make Rate Hike Soon: Updated January 17, 2025.

 

BOJ to make decision on next rate hike this month, deputy chief says

Article Source:  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250114/p2g/00m/0bu/021000c

Ideas:

It looks like the BOJ is trying to be more transparent with more attempts at communication as in the past they seem to have been not so transparent as to what they might do.

At the same time, more or better communication doesn't mean there is going to be rate hike, just a consideration of a rate hike in the future.

If prices continue to remain high and the Japanese economy is not showing signs of improvement, most likely there is not going to be rate hike, as the BOJ will use the same excuse they need to see more data before making a decision.

Just what does the Japanese economy needs to look like for the BOJ to make a move, but at times it seems a little unclear what it might be.

The wage situation is improving but maybe not for all Japanese companies can meet the expectations what the BOJ wants. For example large companies might increase wages again at 5+ percent but the challenge is for small and midsize companies to try and meet the same expectations.

Over 70 percent of Japanese workers work for small and midsize companies an not the large name-brand Japanese companies.

While there might be some certainty related to economic trends and prices moving in line with BOJ expectations, but we have seen this before and prices and inflation make a change and things don't work out as expected.

But its quite possible the BOJ is sending signals to the financial community and businesses that a rate increase is possible if the situation continues to improve.

The key indicator might be wage increases and the BOJ wants to see not only large company wage increases but small and midsize companies too having similar wage increases.

Yes, the next US administration could have an affect on the BOJ's decision to increase the rate, and more importantly how the global economy will react to the new US administration and what it might do.

Because there is a lot  of uncertainty with the new US administration the BOJ might, again, take a wait and see approach until it see what the US Admin, is going to do exactly related to China, Japan, and the rest of the global economy.

But if there is going to be a rate hike by the BOJ most likely it will not be that much, as they don't want to cause any harm with the rate hike and the Japanese economy.

And yes, the Jan. 20 inauguration speech will tell a lot about what is going to happen, but at the same time, don't expect everything to be said and done and the first week and first month will tell a lot more about what is going to happen.

It seems the BOJ might be saying that effective communication is important but don't expect too much from the memos and such before the meetings to be held, as things could change very quickly in Japan.

Have a nice day!