Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Mainichi: Japan Business Sentiment:

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200811/p2g/00m/0bu/124000c

Article:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Business sentiment among workers in Japan with jobs sensitive to economic trends in July almost returned to levels seen before the coronavirus outbreak, as social and economic activities gradually resumed, government data showed Tuesday.
    The diffusion index of confidence among "economy watchers" such as taxi drivers and restaurant staff, released by the Cabinet Office, rose 2.3 points from June to 41.1, compared with 41.9 logged in January when the fallout from the virus outbreak in China was yet to be felt in Japan.
    The reading in the reporting month increased for the third consecutive month after a record-low figure of 7.9 was marked in April, when a nationwide state of emergency was declared to prevent the virus spread, dealing a heavy blow to the world's third-largest economy.
    Ideas:
    Business sentiment, or how someone feels, is a very subjective measure as it can never be exactly sure how a group feels really means anything when it comes to business activity.
    What exactly is an "economy watcher?" Most likely its that group as the above says is dependent on good economic or business conditions to remain employed. 
    How would taxi drivers be economy watchers? Perhaps if the economy is doing well more people might inclined to take taxis instead of a lower cost bus or subway/train. Or if economy is not doing too good consumers of transportation might just take the cheaper bus and or subway/train.
    Of course restaurant staff are always dependent on a good economy. If the economy and businesses are doing good, then more consumers are most likely going to be visiting restaurants instead of eating at home, as is now the case.
    Article:
    As for the outlook, however, the economy watchers expressed a pessimistic view, with the diffusion index gauging business sentiment regarding the coming months decreasing 8.0 points to 36.0.
    A government official told reporters that the outlook figure, down for the first time in three months, is believed to reflect a recent resurgence in infections seen across the country.
    "We can see indications of a pickup from the outcome as economic activities have been partially lifted by the government's support measures such as cash handouts and a subsidy campaign for tourists, while negative effects of the resurgence in virus cases appeared in the latter half of the month," the official said.
    Ideas:
    With all the news out there now about the pandemic is very difficult for many business or economy watchers to be positive. If your business is a customer service type business and you and your employees depend on customers to grow and now even survive, its not easy to be positive.
    Business now have find a way to survive, through innovation, new market niches, maybe somewhat lowered expectations in order to keep the business open. Now might be a good time to find ways to do business that was not thought of before. 
    For example how many restaurants before the pandemic had takeout or delivery, and or partnering with a online company or service that can provide online help that maybe a small and medium sized business is unable or unwilling to do. 
    Finding new blue oceans in a pessimistic atmosphere is not easy but needed to survive.
    Article:
    In May, the government began delivering 100,000 yen ($942) each to 126 million residents in Japan and launched a subsidy campaign called "Go To Travel" in late July to boost the virus-hit domestic tourism industry.
    But the travel promotion policy has drawn fire from the start amid concerns that it could further spread the virus infection.
    A reading below 50 indicates that more respondents reported worsening conditions than improving ones.
    The index on current conditions in June had logged the largest month-to-month rise of 23.3 points since comparable data became available in January 2002.
    Ideas:
    No doubt the 100,000 yen is and was needed by many. But how many families can survive on that amount. Its a worthy goal to help those in need, but most likely families and others will need more than that if the pandemic continues on. 
    The travel promotion may have been another worthwhile goal to get the economy and businesses moving again. But rightly so it could spread the virus to areas that haven't seen as many viruses and other areas. 
    The virus situation has hit many businesses and as such its should be understood, just because there is a month or two of positive activities is not going to undo all of the damage that took place in the spring.
    An economy is a very complex web of activities but at the same time it is very interconnected in that while there might be one or two industries or sectors that seem OK and not really that affected you will have double that amount that are very affected by the pandemic and then add in what is called the multiplier affect and you can double that amount because of the web of connections in the economy. 
    But the same can be said the opposite direction, to add in some positive ideas. If the economy begins to sustain itself eventually there might be this connection where some businesses start to really improve and then it adds on other connected business es that begin to pull out of the pandemic situation and begin to see real growth again. 
    Article:
    The Cabinet Office maintained its assessment after upgrading it for the second straight month in June, saying that while economic conditions remain severe due to the coronavirus pandemic, there are signs things are picking up.
    A department store worker in the southwestern region of Kyushu was quoted as saying that sales were gradually recovering as customers increased from the previous month, but the number of elderly people visiting the store remained at a low level.
    A fabricated-metal industry worker in the Kinki region in western Japan welcomed the fact that more auto plants were resuming operations, but said it would take time for related sectors to go above a profitable line of business.
    The Cabinet Office polled 2,050 workers from July 25 to 31, of whom 1,845, or 90.0 percent, responded.
    Ideas:
    Just as the department store worker said there appears to be a gradual recovery with more customers. Again as more customers begin to show up then more customers will begin the venture out and start shopping again.
    And of course the idea that some customers might have migrated to online shopping when there weren't shopping online before.
    And then there is the elderly customers. Some estimates say the elderly are the backbone of the department store industry. The elderly of course are probably hesitant to go out at this time. 
    Then there is the auto industry and its related sectors ad the metal worker describes. Again the interconnections of different industries or parts of industries. As one part begins to improve it might lead to the improvement of other parts of connections in industries and the overall economy. 
    Have a nice day and be safe!

    Mainichi: Japan Economy:

    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200811/p2g/00m/0bu/047000c

    Article:

    TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's current account surplus shrank 31.4 percent in the first half of 2020 from a year earlier to 7.31 trillion yen ($69 billion), marking the lowest level in over five years as exports and spending by visitors from overseas were hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, government data showed Tuesday.
      In June alone, the current account surplus, one of the widest gauges of international trade, tumbled 86.6 percent to 167.5 billion yen, the Finance Ministry said in a preliminary report.
      Ideas:
      Japan, despite having a rather large domestic economy, and  still the 3rd largest economy in the world, depends heavily on exports, and even more recently tourists from overseas, especially the growing Chinese tourists flocking to Japan.
      Both exports and tourists bring money into Japan and or back to Japan, in the case of exports.
      The spring of 2020 was not so good for exports or global exports, and global demand decreased a lot along with supply challenges and global logistics challenges during the spring and early summer.
      As a result no doubt Japan's current account surplus, like a government's bank account shrank considerably.
      Article:
      The six-month figure was the lowest since a 3.54 trillion yen surplus in the second half of 2014 when the trade deficit swelled due mainly to a surge in gas imports and a fall in the yen, the ministry said.
      The 31.4 percent contraction was the biggest since Japan posted an 89.7 percent fall in the current account surplus in the first half of 2014, it said.
      Among key components, the goods trade balance posted a 1.10 trillion yen deficit, turning negative for the first time in three half-year periods, with exports of cars and auto parts sharply down as the pandemic weighed heavily on overseas demand for such items.
      Ideas:
      The swell in gas imports, and at the same time most likely a increase in oil prices, means that less money is coming into Japan than going out to pay for the higher prices or oil or anything else.
      If the currency exchange rate between Japan and any other country is not in Japan' s favor related to imports than Japan is actually losing money.
      And for example, with exports, exporters prefer a currency exchange rate that is weak so that they can get more for their products they sell overseas like in the US or China.
      And importers prefer a currency exchange rate that is a little strong, as they actually have pay for imports from wherever.
      Article: 
      Exports fell 15.6 percent to 32.01 trillion yen, and imports were down 12.3 percent to 33.10 trillion yen.
      Services trade, which includes cargo shipping and passenger transportation, was 1.17 trillion yen in the red for the six-month period, marking the largest deficit since the latter half of 2014 due to tighter international travel restrictions to curb the spread of the virus.
      A smaller surplus of the travel balance -- which reflects the amount of money foreign visitors use in the country versus how much Japanese spend abroad -- sent the service trade balance to the negative column from a 172.6 billion yen surplus a year earlier, a ministry official said.
      Ideas:
      Global trade was down in the spring and early summer of 2020. At the same time, due to global logistics challenges and or a decrease in demand for imported products during the same period might have caused a decrease in imports.
      And the biggest challenges were with the services sector, especially the travel bans placed on most global travel.
      Japan has become very dependent, whether positive or negative on the huge increase in international travelers to Japan in recent years.
      The increase in international tourists to Japan was part of the former prime minister's strategy to boost the Japanese economy.
      Article:
      The travel surplus plunged to 421.3 billion yen from 1.41 trillion yen as the number of foreign visitors was down 76.3 percent in the first half of this year to an estimated 3.95 million, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization.
      Primary income, which reflects returns on overseas investments, posted a surplus of 10.43 trillion yen, down 4.0 percent.
      In June, the country had a goods trade deficit of 77.3 billion yen and a services trade deficit of 157.7 billion yen, both in the red for the third straight month.
      Primary income logged a surplus of 426.4 billion yen, down 5.8 percent.
      Ideas:
      Most of those foreign visitors most likely went to Japan before the travel ban was put into place in the first week of March 2020. 
      For example, I had planned to travel to Japan the first weekend of March, and could have gotten in before on Sunday before the travel ban was put into effect on a Monday, the first full week in March 2020.
      Most of those tourists were probably coming from China, which itself, imposed a travel ban on its own citizens during the same time period.
      Again, whether good or bad, many Japanese businesses had become highly dependent on international tourists, especially those from China.
      The same can be said for South Korea during the same time period of explosive growth in the Chinese tourists traveling to both South Korea and Japan.
      Unfortunately both countries tourism and services industries have suffered huge losses.
      Have a nice day and be safe!